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Game Industry Not Bigger Than Hollywood
Posted by
Zonk
on Tue Dec 21, 2004 03:49 PM
from the counterpoint dept.
from the counterpoint dept.
The Grumpy Gamer has a counterpoint to the oft mentioned argument that the games industry is bigger business than the movie industry. From the article: "The domestic US box office is estimated to be around $9B for 2004, and this is where the myth starts to take life. The problem is the movie industry is a lot bigger then just the U.S. box office. DVD sales and rentals for 2003 topped $16B. VHS sales and rentals for 2003 was $6.4B. VHS sales are declining fast, but most of that will just shift over to DVDs, which brings the grand total for non-box office movie sales to over $20B, twice the figure for the entire game industry."
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Woo (Score:5, Funny)
Maybe they'll hit $25B if the keep getting torrent and eMule trackers taken down. They need the money.
Re:Woo (Score:5, Insightful)
Yes they will. Since the only legitimate service provided by hollywood is providing films to be shown in public theatres, their very dubious claim of controlling the rights of further distribution is dying.
Going to the movies is like going to a themepark, it's an experience that's worth paying for. Millions of americans will still 'go to the movies' regardless of file-sharing.
Hollywood was doing just fine before the advent of television, VHS, and the internet...and it will do just fine afterwards. But all of the 'free money' they've reaped from the near zero production costs of TV, Cable, VHS, and DVD is no longer theirs to claim. If they can create a distribution channel that's in any way superior to searcheable and indexed peer-to-peer file sharing then people may be willing to pay for it.
Until then the copyright monopoly will be increasingly threatened by a competitor that offers superior services. If this country is truly interested in free-trade, it will ensure that the best option for the consumer prevails.
Parent
Which is bigger? (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Which is bigger? (Score:3, Interesting)
On a related note though, I just want a pay per view type of thing for movies already in the theaters. I'd gladly pay the price of a ticket to watch a movie in the comfort of my own home. In fact, I often wait for movies to come out on DVD rather than go see them in the theaters.
But... (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:But... (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:But... (Score:3, Insightful)
Are the rentals hurting the developers, or is it the flood of half-assed games that make us leary about investing $50?
Re:But... (Score:5, Funny)
Parent
Wait... what? (Score:5, Interesting)
Which sells more merchandising?
Which sells more novel versions?
Which sells more subscriptions?
Which employs more people?
Which sells more disk media?
Which sells more theater tickets?
Here-in lies the problem with comparing any two industries.
Re:Wait... what? (Score:5, Funny)
Well, this one I think I can answer for you.
Parent
Re:Wait... what? (Score:5, Funny)
Of course, by that logic, the music biz represents a $843 googazillion industry, based on theoretical revenue from online file sharing.
Parent
Re:Wait... what? (Score:2, Interesting)
Valid Point, and Yet Not (Score:5, Insightful)
At the same time, $10B is a lot of dough, no matter what you are comparing it to. The movie industry is "only" twice as big? Yeah, well, they have had over a hundred years to build that up. How long has it taken for the game industry to reach the halfway mark? At that rate, how long before it passes the $20B mark? It is impressive no matter how you look at it.
Re:Valid Point, and Yet Not (Score:2, Insightful)
Personally, I always knew the statistic was only compared to the box office, not the whole movie industry, but either way... video games are BIG MONEY.
Anyway you spin it, the game industry is huge and growing fast.
Re:Valid Point, and Yet Not (Score:5, Interesting)
That is without even mentioning the Star Wars frachise which collected a tidy 6 digit sum out of X Wing, Tie Fighter, Rebellion, Tie Fighter vs X Wing, Jedi Knights and the extension packs for all of them.
These two industries are nowdays ONE industry. Every decent movie has a lame game tucked on it and vice versa. Doom the movie... Yuck...
Parent
WalMart (Score:5, Interesting)
Just to put things into perspective, WalMart does about $250 billion in sales annually. That's a single company taking in 10X the annual revenue of two entire industries combined. Now that's impressive.
Parent
Re:WalMart (Score:4, Funny)
I.e:
the movie industry: 0.1 WM
the game industry: 0.05 WM (tiny!)
Microsoft: 0.2 WM (ha!)
GDP of Greece: 0.9 WM
Parent
To Be Fair (Score:2)
Ok, fine! (Score:5, Insightful)
With the crap that coming out the theatres, I won't be long until other industries top them.
Re:Ok, fine! (Score:2)
Re:Ok, fine! (Score:5, Insightful)
I would argue that the movies being released today are at least as good as the movies being released at just about any period in movie-making history. There are some stunning examples of really good movie-making right along side with mountains of utter self-involved tripe. This is as it has always been. What's a bit different now is that the industry has managed to create two reasonably self-contained development tracks. One is for the big-budget media-fests and one is for the work that is to be judged on merit, rather than number of toy tie-ins.
We call these "studio" and "independent" films, but that distinction is a fiction. In reality there are simply two modes of marketing a film. One involves a formulaic involvement from the studio from day one, and has a much higher success rate at the box office. The other involves far more risk, but the studios offload that risk to the film-makers and "buy in" at a stage where the quality of the product has been established.
This is done because it has worked so well in the cable television market, where some of the best shows from the fiction and non-fiction market have been created this way (pretty much all of PBS, Discovery, SciFi, etc. are done this way).
Personally, I think this is a good thing. It gives us more of what we want on a visceral level (blood, boobs and beasts) and at the same time a natural selection process that highlights and rewards good film-makers who take risks.
Parent
I think the point of the previous article was: (Score:2)
It's definitely ballpark to the movie industry, which blew me away, I had no idea.
-Jesse
Licensing (Score:2)
Now, how often do video games get turned into movies. A couple dozen? And how many have been good? Paul W. S. Anderson has done more to damage the flow from games to movies than anyone else. Usually its the movies based upon non-existent games that come off better (the only one I can think of is Avalon f
Re:Licensing (Score:3, Insightful)
Tomb Raider
The Wizard
Super Mario Bros
Double Dragon
Street Fighter
Mortal Kombat
Pokemon
Final Fantasy - Spirits Within
Wing Commander
And coming soon to a theater near you.. Doom
These were all bullshit movies to schill the games, or "grow the franchise" in marketdrone speak.
There are more, many more if you want to include TV shows in the argument.
It's all the same "industry", the money winds up al
ITS ALL THE FUCKING SAME INDUSTRY (Score:5, Insightful)
Take a look behind the curtain.
Many video games are movie tie-ins.
Many movies are video game tie-ins.
Who chalks up the bucks for "The Incredibles" for XBox? The video game industry? The movie industry?
What about the revenue for the Doom movie? Video game industry? Movie industry?
What about the revenue for the endless talk tv drivel about the Doom game and movie?
My point is, the money ends up in the same pockets, for the most part.
Re:ITS ALL THE FUCKING SAME INDUSTRY (Score:3, Insightful)
Whoever gets to keep the money, obviously. In the case of "The Incredibles" for XBox, the developers and/or publishers will be paying a license fee (be it fixed, per unit, or percentage of sales). That money will be counted towards the movie, the rest will be counted as "video game".
So what? It's still useful to compare the size
Re:ITS ALL THE FUCKING SAME INDUSTRY (Score:3, Insightful)
Consider all FPS games where Doom is an exception when the movie will be released, such as Half-Life, Halo, Counterstrike, Battlefield 1942, Far Cry, Vampire Bloodlines,
Consider all RTS games -- Starcraft, the Warcraft series, the Age of Empires series, the Command & Conquer series, Heroes of Might & Magic,
The MMORPG's -- EQ, WoW, DAoC, Horizons, Eve,
Heck, just think of the flight simulators alone, IL-2 Sturmovik: Forgot
Apples and Oranges? (Score:3, Interesting)
Ahhh (Score:2)
Does it matter ? (Score:2)
used games and game rentals (Score:2)
Almost every game store is pushing very, very hard to sell used merchandise. They offer 'lifetime warranties' on CDs and DVDs (but not against scratching or damage!) and they purposefully steer parents to used titles, if you have been in a game store you have seen it. This income is not shared with the game publisher, or anyone else but the game store itself.
These greedy sons of bitches now sell used games for the same price as new games, and
How about buying and selling used games? (Score:2, Interesting)
Heck, even amazon.com encourages the buying and selling of used products.
Hardware upgrades? (Score:2)
Sure, it's probably not enough to offset the difference. The point is that the gaming industry also has tie-ins to other areas.
but they also don't count (Score:4, Insightful)
Game subscription fees.
Game swag sales.
International all of the above.
Factor those back in, and the game industry comes out back on top.
Bottom line: Games get a slightly larger share of consumer entertainment dollars than movies do. People also spend slightly more hours playing games than watching movies.
um, yah (Score:4, Funny)
So I guess the next logical step is... (Score:2)
Don't believe everything they tell you... (Score:5, Informative)
Read this article [alternet.org] to find out why there is such a big difference in the figures (it's a little old, but informative).
Parent
Further (Score:2)
3 Hour film in theater: $10 (1998)
10+ Views of 3 hour film on VHS/DVD: Another $20
10+ Hours single player gameplay: $50
100+ Hours Multiplayer Gameplay: Same $50
It's interesting (Score:5, Insightful)
It's odd to me that something that for so many years was the "alternative" form of entertainment is now so obsessed with making itself just look and feel just like the movie and or television industry. The gaming industry as a whole needs to collectively take a look at itself and decide if this is what we really want. Creativity is the only limiting factor in gaming, we can't afford to lose that ingredient, or gaming as a fresh, exciting entertainment media is dead.
You can already see this happening: What are the big games right now? Half Life 2. Halo 2. Sims 2. Gran Turismo 4. Everquest 2. Final Fantasy 11. Grand Theft Auto San Andreas (essentially GTA6). Metroid Prime 2. Metal Gear Solid 3. Madden for the 15th straight year. Doom 3. Burnout 3. Prince of Persia 2. Spiderman 2. Pikmin 2. Paper Mario 2. Need for Speed Underground 2. The list goes on and on.
The fact is, you'll be hard pressed to find a video game these days that isn't a straight sequel, the latest title in a long line, or based on a universe established in other games (World of Warcraft). People were having a cow this summer when it was all sequels, where's the outcry over this practice in video games?
Re:It's interesting (Score:5, Insightful)
In movies, sequels suck. I mean, they suck a LOT. And before all of you start saying "Well, Star Trek [insert favorite one] was better than the original!", I have one word for you: Matrix.
The reasons for this are many. Lower budgets, raised expectations, changes in writers, directors, creative and technical staff, trying to extend a situation that shouldn't be extended, "direct to video", etc.
However, in video games, sequels are generally very good compared to their predecessors. Now, before you go saying "Final Fantasy [your least favorite one here] was so much worse than [your favorite one here]!", I can retort that you've just proved my point.
The reasons for this are many, but among them are: increased budget, improved technology, gameplay can be improved in an evolutionary fashion, a generally lesser emphasis on character development (so reusing characters isn't as big of a deal, since they are largely peripheral to the process; think "Mario"), an increased focus on the producers of the games themselves, etc.
In other words, the production of sequels for both formats is exceptionally different, and so, therefore, are their results. That's not to say there aren't exceptions on either side, but if you look hard enough at the exceptions, you'll probably find examples of techniques from the other format. (For example, changing the creative direction for Silent Hill 4 was disasterous, whereas a lack of emphasis on character development is what has allowed the Godzilla franchise to continue to exist).
Parent
Re:It's interesting (Score:5, Insightful)
But it's almost getting to be too much of a good thing. Off the top of your head, can you even name more then 5 video games that are based on an original idea/concept, produced in the past year or so, and has either won critical acclaim or seen high sales? Without resorting to GameFAQ's I'll try and see what I can come up with:
1. Khatma Damacy (sp I'm sure)
2. Fable
3. City of Heroes
4.
5.
Seriously, those last two took me quite a while. The point being that even if sequels are excellent on the whole, gaming needs new ideas. Look at a game like Metroid Prime. Excellent game in every aspect, technically solid, beautiful to look at, exciting and fun to play. But does it really break any new ground? You're still Samus Aran, alien bounty hunter, and you're still showing up on planets to kill beasts and crap bombs out of your butt.
I'm not trying to say these games don't need to be made, because quite frankly I love these types of games as much as the next guy. I'm just saying we have to keep the industry fresh with new ideas, or things are going to get stale.
Parent
Re:It's interesting (Score:4, Interesting)
Final Fantasy X-2. Heck, anything after 7. It's crap. All crap. In 7, the cutscenes are minor, like in the older games, and drive the story in ways that can't be driven interactively.
8 and on seem like an exercise in doing what is necessary to get to the next cutscene. I couldn't force myself to digest all of X-2, after 8 and X, it was enough. I haven't played 9, but I'm tempted to considering all the people that like 8, X, and X-2 say it sucks. These people coincidentally hate 7 and haven't played anything earlier.
I remember buying FF1 the day it came out in the U.S. and being AWE STRICKEN by a stupid blue screen with text that faded in.... Between the music and the contents of that text, I was in love immediately.
Now I get something that probably took 5 months to render that amounts to a very well-done computer-generated britney spears video. Strangely, that stupid blue screen was much more interesting.
Parent
Re:It's interesting (Score:3, Insightful)
Generally true, and it's also generally true that video game sequals are pretty good. But that's also due to the nature of the entertainment.
If a movie sequel is nothing but more of the same with a fancier special effects budget, the movie will be justly derided. However, perfectly sucessful video games sequels can be nothing more than a graphical update of the original. People don't like it when developers mess with the original formula too much - they're looking for an update r
Sales "and Rentals"? (Score:5, Insightful)
(1) If you count DVD sales and rentals, aren't you double counting sales to the big rental chains? And of course, studios don't see the money from rentals any more than a game developer sees money from blockbuster renting a game, so why should that be counted?
(2) Does the $10B figure for the game industry include game rentals? Or is it possible that perhaps the rentals of games at, say, Blockbuster, got grouped into the movie rental business, since they do so much game renting?
(3) How does resale figure into this? There's a huge market for "pre-owned" games AND movies, including a lot of trade-in credits. Personally, I'd expect movies to be rented more but traded in less (at least as a percentage of their sales revenue).
(4) How do you account for cross-licensed stuff? It seems silly to count the Spider-Man 2 game as a purely "video game industry" thing, as it wouldn't even exist without the movie. And when Doom comes out in theatres, how does one account for that? Clearly, the brand names generated in each industry create value and that value is hard to measure solely off sales in one genre or another.
(5) What about subscriptions? There's obviously plenty of license money being thrown around by HBO when they get movies, and likewise, on the Video Games side, how much are all those MMO subscriptions worth?
One could even go into an in-depth review of piracy. How does piracy in each segment compare and effect revenues? What sort of margins do big hits have, and what sort of margins does the industry overall have? And what sort of residuals? It's a lot harder to squeeze more life out of an old game than an old movie. Old movies show up on TV and such, but old games just end up getting cracked.
And they give examples of bestsellers, but they don't look at the breadth of titles. How many video games came out vs how many movies?
And certainly International Box Office is absolutely colossal for big movies. How does gaming compare? A lot of major Hollywood movies take in 65%+ of their gross overseas. How do localized versions of Video Games compare?
I think what we can all agree on is that Video Games comprise an ever-increasing portion of the GDP and probably of the entertainment dollar that we spend, and as such, it's a lot harder to predict where they will go. Most video game players can imagine a *long* way into the future for video games in terms of technology, to the point where I could see people paying thousands of dollars for holodeck-type video game vacations that last a week; it's hard to see where movies go from here for sure, whereas Video Games have shown a seemingly endless appetite for more advanced technology.
They miss something else (Score:4, Insightful)
A movie costs £5 at the box office or rental and £20 on DVD. A game costs upwards of £30, so while games may be competing with movies in the area of profits, the number of people playing games is far less than those who watch movies. Culturally videogames are still a long way behind film.
Secondary Markets (Score:3, Insightful)
Comparing two industries ain't easy. And I mostly agree with stratjakt (596332) anyhow that it is a moot point when you consider all the money ends up in the same few pockets.
My Comments (Score:3, Informative)
http://www.jackphelps.net/archives/2004/12
or here:
Games are bigger than movies
Matthew Yi doesn't say what he's comparing the $10b figure to. My guess is that it's the oft-quoted ~$9.6b domestic box offices revenue figure. Both figures are domestic, but he is leaving out the important $21b home video market and the aftermarket licensing market (pay-per-view, public performance, etc.). I don't know the exact size of the latter, but according to ABN Amro in 2000 it was roughly 28% of the total dollars (probably about $8b domestic then, but my guess is that it's dropped off some). Hollywood produces a lot of porn, too. You want to throw that $8b in there, Yi?
How do you play your games and movies?
The $10b figure includes hardware. Consoles. Do I need to say that again? The $21b domestic video market requires dedicated players, too, and Yi ignored those in his analysis. Probably the most relevent statistic Yi could have used for the domestic games market, then, is the ~$7.15b 2003 North American games software sales stat from Push Research.
What the hell is Hollywood?
Okay, I understand that the guy is talking about movies, but he never even says that. He says "Hollywood" again and again. Even if he were using the abovementioned $9.6b gross domestic box office reciepts figure, he's wrong to call it "hollywood," because that figure includes a number of movies (albeit small) not produced at all by Hollywood, and does not include Hollywood's exported box office reciepts. That's akin to some sick hybrid between GDP and GNP where you count only good produced in the US and by US companies, and it tells you nothing and reeks of stupid journalist.
The month of November
Yi cites November as a killer month he considers demonstrative of the growth in games, and my personal opinion is that this is equally rotten analysis. November included the release of Halo 2, Metroid Prime 2, Halflife 2, a peripheral sales boom from the October 26th GTA: San Andreas release, and probably the 200,000 Nintendo DS units sold in the first week of release. What that means is that there has never been a month in gaming equivalent to that month, and there probably won't be in all of 2005 unless you count console releases, which again are hardly a relevent comparison.
Where does Grumpy Gamer get his numbers?? (Score:3, Insightful)
First he states, that it's BS because it includes console gaming. Ok, a stretch but I'll let it go.
"The domestic US box office is estimated to be around $9B for 2004, and this is where the myth starts to take life. The problem is the movie industry is a lot bigger then just the U.S. box office. DVD sales and rentals for 2003 topped $16B. VHS sales and rentals for 2003 was $6.4B. VHS sales are declining fast, but most of that will just shift over to DVDs, which brings the grand total for non-box office movie sales to over $20B, twice the figure for the entire game industry."
Now he says, that the movie biz is worth 20 billion if you take in to account international sales, dvd sales, etc. He says it's important to take into account intertantional sales but then he fails to take into account internation sales of video games. What is that number? Last I heard, it was close to 30 BILLION. (I'll try and dig up an official number later.)
Anyway, he then compares international gross of various movies with NATIONAL gross of video games. Yeah, that's fair. Halo 2 he says made $160 million. Hmm...that's strange, according to my research it made $125 million its FIRST DAY of release in North America alone. I suppose it's possible it only made another $35 million (which is only 700,000 copies) world wide past the first day but I'm doubtful. He says GTA: San Andreas grossed $178 million. I can find several internet sources with one google search that will tell you it made that much OPENING WEEKEND. That's not the total amount it will make.
Then Grumpy Gamer wonders where are all the limosines and fast cars that the gaming companies have. I guess since there's no giant premier on E showing these people coming out of limosines or exotic cars, they must not exist.
You can go on and on with this, but if this guy is going to try and debunk a "myth" (that only geeks know about anyway), at least try and be accurate instead of creating your own myth. This guy is completely talking out of his ass as far as I can tell. He has no hard evidence to prove anything. Apparently, Grumpy Gamer believes you destroy myths by mere speculation, lack of hard evidence, and incorrect figures. (Notice he didn't provide any sources for where his game gross' came from.)
The Shift IS Significant (Score:3, Insightful)
At one time, that demographic was the bread-and-butter of the local movie house. Now a large segment of the US population is staying home with their high-quality audio and television units, rather than drive to town (fuel), grab an early dinner (fast food), drive to the cineplex (fuel), pay for your tickets (ouch!), buy a few snacks (sock!) and a drink (pow!), and you have probably spent the entire months entertainment budget.
The movie industry will decline for a short time and will eventually mimic the game industry's business model. They will still put out occasional theatrical releases of big-budget shows, but the "B" movies will probably never be shown in local screens.
Re:But what about Video Game Movies? (Score:2, Funny)
Hit the buttons on your ps2 controller. If Toby McGuire jumps, it's a video game. If everything stops and you see a 'fuck off and die' FBI warning, it's a movie.