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XBox (Games)

How Bad Will The 360 Shortage Be? 95

shrouded writes "Rumors have been growing the last few days about hardware shortages for the launch of Microsoft's new video game console this month. No one is speaking about it officially, but off behind-the-scenes whispering makes it sound like initial supplies won't even cover people who have pre-paid for their machines. eToychest spent the weekend asking retailers what they anticipate for the Nov. 22 release date, and its not pretty."
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How Bad Will The 360 Shortage Be?

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  • by yagu ( 721525 ) * <yayagu@[ ]il.com ['gma' in gap]> on Monday November 07, 2005 @05:26PM (#13973353) Journal

    Maybe Microsoft should just rename it the Cabbage Patch 360, rake in their overinflated profits and be done with it. This stinks of marketing shennanigans; either Microsoft has really blown it on their ability to deliver in anticipation of trumping others' rollouts (disingenuous), or they're pulling the Cabbage Patch stunt to go for even more hype and mania around this product (also disingenuous).

    • I don't understand the claim of overinflated profits if MS will likely be bleeding for a good while.

      That said, I'd say just don't buy this if they are going to toy with the buyers like this.
      • Microsoft is bleeding for a good while because they choose to, because they believe it will net them greater profits long-term. Bleeding more isn't going to hurt them long term, unless everyone buys an XBox 360 and uses them as overpriced paperweights.

        I'd say just don't buy this if they are going to toy with the buyers like this.

        I wish it were that easy. You can similarly "just not use Windows", but that's not really a choice anymore either. XBox 360 is the only console that has a remotely cohesive o

        • I wish it were that easy. You can similarly "just not use Windows", but that's not really a choice anymore either.

          Really? I choose to not use Windows. I haven't had a Windows box in my home in over a year, other than friends using my WiFi connection on their PC laptops when visiting.

          XBox 360 is the only console that has a remotely cohesive online strategy.

          Who cared about a "cohesive online strategy" when it comes to consoles. I'm no PS2 fanboy, but I always thought X-Box Live was a stupid concept, stupi
          • What made Live stupid? I'm not a Live subscriber but one fee to enable connectivity for all games seems like a good idea to me. Better than the server hunting I used to do for Quake.
            • What made Live stupid?

              Several things.

              1. It wasn't always one fee. For example, if you wanted to play PSO, you had to pay your broadband fee, the X-Box Live fee on top of that, and the MMO subscription fee on top of that. Screw that noise.

              2. It wasn't terribly reliable, at least not at the homes where I saw it installed.

              3. Many of the games didn't really offer enough value through the on-line experience to make it worth the money. Most of the best console games are, after all, designed to amuse 1-4 peopl
              • I have heard that the xbox live service runs the connection to a centralized server instead of connecting directly client-to-client like PS2. I don't know if this is true. All I know is that the PS2 connections are client-to-client for the majority of games and dropouts are rare. Slow if they have 56k, but still usable.

              • 1. MMO's have always cost extra, but that's not really for the network connection, it's more for the database servers (maintaining usability with record locks that span tons of players is indeed much more difficult than 16-player games) and for occasional content updates.

                3. And how many people do you know who played Quake 2, etc. obsessively? Clearly, for the hard-core gamer who might game enough that their friends aren't always available to play, or they game more often than their friends do, then onlin

              • re: 2. I did play Splinter Cell 2 at a friends house for an afternoon. We never had a slowdown or dropped game, I was mightily impressed.

                re: 3. But my younger brother lives 400 miles away, it would be more fun to play against him online than against an AI in the game.

                re: 4. I tremendously loved the microphone in my play of Splinter Cell 2. My team and I plotted tactics ("You head right, I'll climb up here, at the count of five I throw a flash bomb and then you slide out and take him down." etc etc etc.) Ext
            • There is a lack of dedicated servers for many of the games. Most games are hosted on a home broadband connection which usually does not have the upload capacity to hold many people in a game. You are essentially paying to host games with questionable quailty rather than paying for good hosts.
          • I choose to not use Windows.

            Try working in corporate software development, and never touching Windows. It can happen sometimes, but at least in my company, you definitely have to do Windows stuff from time to time. Once Intel/AMD virtualization comes along, hopefully I can actually ditch Windows for everything except that I'm really forced to, without impacting my work productivity and having my boss complain at me.

        • XBox 360 is the only console that has a remotely cohesive online strategy
          PC online gaming is bad enough with some of the idiots you have to deal with. If the only thing to sell me on an XBox is a greater chance of being insulted by a kid half my age (and using a microphone) because I didn't cheat my way to the top... count me out. So is Microsoft paying Slashdot for all this publicity? There's been an article on the thing damn near every day for a month.
          • Well, I'd say that Microsoft is working to address [quartertothree.com] that problem (the one of annoying player matching).
          • XBox Live allows you to keep a 'Friends' list on your account, for all games. Meaning that say, if you start enjoying a certain group of people, you can add them to your friends list, see when they're online and join them. If the next game comes out, the friends list carries over, so you can play with the same group of people easily, without having to server hunt.
        • Microsoft is bleeding for a good while because they choose to, because they believe it will net them greater profits long-term. Bleeding more isn't going to hurt them long term, unless everyone buys an XBox 360 and uses them as overpriced paperweights.

          I'd say just don't buy this if they are going to toy with the buyers like this.

          I wish it were that easy. You can similarly "just not use Windows", but that's not really a choice anymore either. XBox 360 is the only console that ha
    • XBOX Three Sucksty. (Score:3, Informative)

      by Vinnster ( 572111 )

      MS really does have some genious marketers.

      1. Keep supply low, restricting sales to fanboys on initial launch
      2. Fanboys talk it up. m@N! my 360 is s0 1337! j00 g0tta g3t 1!
      3. Profit.

      Genius. Bravo, Microsoft.

      I played it at Wal-Mart for as long as I could bear it - 25 minutes, 3 games. How on earth are people lining up to pay USD $350+ for little more than an original xbox? I mean seriously... I swear I was playing at less than 1024x768 resolution.. oh wait. I WAS!

      There is no discernable difference betwee

    • what the fuck is a cabbage patch 360, asshat
  • It happenes with every console, and Nintendo was the big one who mastered it. There will be enough, we always fall for it, and the proof is everyday on Slashdot. Everyday we hear about the shortages, and never from an official source.

    Perfect example was the Nintendo DS last year. I got my hands on a DS early, thinking there would be a shortage. Almost everywhere I went, there they were. All JUST IN TIME FOR THE HOLIDAYS. Parents are probably shaking in their boots for their kids.
    • Re:Fallig for it (Score:2, Insightful)

      by Anonymous Coward
      I don't agree. From recent history in the North American market:

      PS2 launched in short supply very close to the holiday season. Demand went up only slightly in time for the actual holidays. Many people didn't care anyways, since the whole first year of the PS2's existence was plagued with a horrible launch lineup of games. It is assumed that the short supply was an orchestrated move on Sony's part, but nowhere near the level of planning that MS is seen as architecting for the 360 launch.

      GBA launched in g
  • by AndreiK ( 908718 ) <AKrotkov@gmail.com> on Monday November 07, 2005 @05:33PM (#13973441) Homepage
    Even if there is a shortage, I predict it will be extremely short lived.

    Also, this is all artificial. Slashdot is proof of it - there is an advertisement every day on this supposed shortage - most of us even believe it now because its been drilled into our heads for so long.
    • Exactly, so I'll say it again: "How much is Microsoft paying for this advertising campaign?" I've seen a story or two each and every day about the X-Box 360. If it's not about the supposed shortages, it's about how it's better than the upcoming PS3 and how it'll prevent the PS3 from claiming the #1 spot for the next generation of consoles. This kind of coverage cannot come cheap!
  • Does it matter? (Score:3, Interesting)

    by jclast ( 888957 ) on Monday November 07, 2005 @05:33PM (#13973442) Homepage
    Does it really matter if there's a shortage of 360s this holiday season. The current generation will still have games released for it, right?

    So what if little Johnny doesn't get a 360 under the tree this year. If getting your child a 360 for Christmas is that important and you can't find one, just set the money aside and pick one up when more are made.

    It's not as though these things will be in short supply forever.
    • Re:Does it matter? (Score:5, Insightful)

      by telstar ( 236404 ) on Monday November 07, 2005 @05:49PM (#13973594)
      If getting your child a 360 for Christmas is that important and you can't find one, just set the money aside and pick one up when more are made.

      You either don't celebrate Christmas, or you've forgotten what a Christmas morning as a little kid is like. I'm 28 and I still rememeber not being able to sleep in anticipation of what I'd find under the tree the next day. To a kid that's fortunate enough to be able to celebrate Christmas, that day is magical because he or she gets stuff ... not the promise of stuff. As an adult, yeah ... I can grasp the idea of getting something when it's available, but that just doesn't compute for kids. Is it right to have a kid so hyped up over materialistic things? Maybe not ... but when I have a kid, but I understand.
      • If you don't think your kid could take waiting for a gift, couldn't you just as easily spend that money of something else for him/her? There are 5 other gaming systems out right now (PS2, GameCube, XBox, DS, and PSP), and they can't possibly have every single shiny thing they want. Not getting one present can't (or shouldn't at least) ruin the holiday for somebody.

        And I don't know what kind of family everybody else grew up in, but when I was a kid Christmas was more about sledding, pecan rolls, hot cocoa, a
  • by PIPBoy3000 ( 619296 ) on Monday November 07, 2005 @05:37PM (#13973481)
    Back in the early 80's, my father bought an Alpha Micro for $10,000. It was a silly purchase in retrospect, but he loved the idea of owning a real computer and hoped to put it to work in his business. He eventually did, though it took quite awhile. I learned programming and the rest is history.

    What does this have to do with XBoxes? The crazy people who go out and buy one right away subsidize the cost for people who wait a few months and get it when there are actual deals to be had.
  • by IIDX ( 873577 ) on Monday November 07, 2005 @05:45PM (#13973565)
    I believe only two games have gone gold, which means a max of 2 games will be available at launch as of now...

    Who cares about buying the system on launch day if you can't play the game you wanted yet?
    • I believe the word you are looking for is "minimum". If two games have gone gold then that is the minimum number of games the XBOX 360 will have at launch.
      • Well, there's always the posibility that a game that is gold may not be ready for the shelfs on release date (packaging, manufacturing, distribution etc).

        Thus, if 2 games are gold, but don't get through manfacturing, or whatever, then you might only have one available.

        I'm hoping that they have DOA4 ready for launch, but Tecmo hasen't said it will be.
        • I don't think DVD manufacturing / packagine would take that long, enough DVDs for the launch could be stamped out in a couple of days, and packaging could be prepate beforehand, I think the main issue would be shipping. But I think in this sort of situation they'll probably be able to get it shipped ASAP with liberal applications of money. I doubt Microsoft have shipped the consoles themselves yet, so it's probably just a case of distributing the games with the console. Although any games going gold in the
  • Seriously? (Score:2, Funny)

    by narrowhouse ( 1949 )
    Are you really considering buying a product from a company that plans a shortage to build buzz? Granted they are not the first company to do it, but given the fact that you know in advance that you are being played, you are just going to go with it? Until the "shortage" is over you can pretty much bet you are going to pay top dollar, buy it after the price goes down and spend the difference on group therapy for game addicts ;). On second thought forget I said anything, it's your money, enjoy.
  • by supabeast! ( 84658 ) on Monday November 07, 2005 @05:55PM (#13973661)
    Given the games likely to be available at release, I don't see how the shortage is a bad thing. What am I going to miss out on?
  • "Later that week" (Score:3, Interesting)

    by pnice ( 753704 ) on Monday November 07, 2005 @05:55PM (#13973667)
    The past supply estimate said

    Best Buy: 20 to 60 Xbox 360s with a larger shipment coming "later that week."

    So what's up with that? Are they going to make enough Xbox 360s to give all of the Best Buy stores more in less than 7 days after they get the first batch? That seems pretty impressive...at least to me.
    • There has been speculation that Microsoft will attempt to create an artificial sellout. Rather than shipping out everything they can, they will only ship less than what they think can sell out in one day, simply to create a buzz. A little later, they will ship units that were ready for day one.
  • Do we need to have "OMG 360 shortage" stories?!?

    We all know it is a ploy, if people would read Microsofts last stock talks from a week or two back where they basically explain that sales will be poorer than expected and that this is all part of their "rolling-thunder" campaign.

    Everything is known at this point, how many units stores will get, that MS is *making* them ensure sell-outs, and that from Walmart/Best Buy the units have heat and power issues and the games are all pretty yawn inspiring.

    All the hype
  • ... it will be bad enough for me to not be able to get one the instant I want one, so I won't get one at all.
  • dreamcast 4life
  • More from me... (Score:2, Insightful)

    by Tachikoma ( 878191 )
    Because my last post was short.
    this reminds me of the time cartman got that amusement park, and then wouldn't let anyone come in, so of course everyone was DIEING to get in, simply because they couldn't. The park itself was nothing special, but it was the simple fact that they were not allowed....

    I'm not sure what bothers me more, the fact that this scheme is OBVIOUS and a bunch of bull-poop, or the fact that it's working....
    • I'm not sure what bothers me more, the fact that this scheme is OBVIOUS and a bunch of bull-poop, or the fact that it's working....

      Oh, please. Like 90% of really succesful ideas are completely stupid. I mean the million dollar homepage [milliondol...mepage.com], for example, was an idea that required people to go to a webpage pureply to click on ads and yet it made the owner a rediculous ammount of money. It really seems that the best way to earn money is to just assume that the vast majority of people are complete morons.

  • ...of a product is to make it more scarce on the market.
    They gave away the first xbox "for free", and now they make sure this won't happen again.

    Slashnews. Dots for nerds. Staff that mutters.
  • Interesting (Score:3, Informative)

    by Shmoe ( 17051 ) on Monday November 07, 2005 @06:22PM (#13974001)
    It's amusing this article came up today

    EB called me 3 weeks ago, told me I was in the first shipment. All good.

    Today, get a call stating that I am number 25 of the first shipment and they're only recieving 18 units. They won't guarantee me a 360 before christmas either. (To their credit they said it was very likely, but they hesitated to use the word guarantee.)

    Crappy. Good work MS. Bah Humbug.
    • It's amusing this article came up today

      EB called me 3 weeks ago, told me I was in the first shipment. All good.

      Today, get a call stating that I am number 25 of the first shipment and they're only recieving 18 units. They won't guarantee me a 360 before christmas either. (To their credit they said it was very likely, but they hesitated to use the word guarantee.)

      Crappy. Good work MS. Bah Humbug.


      Your not going to miss much. It won't be till long after christmas before any decent games come out. Problably not
  • If they do sell out on Tuesday but, miracle of miracles, they get a huge shipment in just in time for Black Friday. If this happens, you can bet it was all a big scam.

    And, if it works, I think we should make Jennifer Government required reading for all future marketing classes...

  • As far as I can tell, while being fairly expansive in number, the general quality of the titles available at launch is poor. I mean, it's expected, the Xbox 1 didn't have much during it's relatively short life, but as far as I can tell the only piece of software that could be worth the now-ludicrous $60 they're trying to extort from people for "NEXT-GEN!!!" games, is Kameo. Furthermore the genre-slice is virtually identical to the Xbox 1's library, and since I never found that FPS and Racing heavy idea of
    • as far as I can tell the only piece of software that could be worth the now-ludicrous $60 they're trying to extort from people for "NEXT-GEN!!!" games, is Kameo.

      I played Kameo for a while in the Tokyo (Aoyama/Omotesando) "xbox 360 cafe", and what I saw was pretty dull. Very, very, "Rare": technically and visually impressive, but with annoyingly generic and uninvolving characters and gameplay. If you've played Starfox Adventures on the gamecube, Kameo feels sort of like that, except the characters in Kameo
  • by Malor ( 3658 ) on Monday November 07, 2005 @06:41PM (#13974231) Journal
    Microsoft probably wants there to be a big buzz about shortages, to get more people to pony up and purchase the first day.... the rumor thus becomes sort of a self-fulfilling prophecy. It would not shock me AT ALL if the source for this one is Microsoft itself. They want it to be special, scarce, and hard to find.

    The way to combat the problem, as others here are mentioning, is just to ignore the console completely. There aren't going to be very many good games for it at first ANYWAY. The games aren't going anywhere. You'll still be able to play them if you wait until the consoles are easy to get. They're just graphical updates of existing games. They'll look fantabulous, but they're not going to play differently. It's just the same old shit with a facelift.

    There's NO rush on this... the games will be just as much fun in February as they would be in two weeks, and they might be a little cheaper.
  • One Word (Score:3, Interesting)

    by vertinox ( 846076 ) on Monday November 07, 2005 @06:52PM (#13974345)
    Ebay

    The thought crossed my mind about getting pre-orders under the names a bunch of friends with several EB, Gamestop, Walmarts to try to buy as many Xbox360 and then sell them on ebay at exploitive prices.

    However, I never put that much effort in life towards money because of moral implactions, being lazy, and the fact I don't like to use Ebay.

    Also my reasoning that this could be all hype and I could end up with a bank breaking debt worth of overpriced hardware that no one wants.
  • I should have pre-ordered long ago so I could be a douche and sell it on eBay!
  • by Anonymous Coward
    This is it for Microsoft and the console market.

    About halfway through the first Xbox fiasco, Microsoft was ready to pull the plug on the whole mess. But decided not to and let the disaster run its course.

    Despite what many Windows fanatics like to claim, Microsoft in no way has unlimited amounts of cash to spend. Even a passing knowledge of their number of shares outstanding and revenue growth makes that clear. The 360 is the 'one more chance' project for the Xbox team. There is no more freedom to blow billi
  • by GaryPatterson ( 852699 ) on Monday November 07, 2005 @07:33PM (#13974723)
    The units will sell out on release day, and probably there's been an artificial restriction on stock to ensure that.

    But a few days later they'll be back. No-one could seriously believe that Microsoft will miss the holiday buyers, can they?

    There will be no shortage, but there will be a few days wait for most buyers.

    I'm going to sit this out for the first year, and then maybe buy one, if I like the look of Halo-3. I only bought the X-box for Halo-2, but then I upgraded to a PowerMac G4/450 back in 1999 because I thought Halo for the Mac was just around the corner. There were demos! At Macworld! Yes... I'm a long-suffering Bungie fan...
  • If they're looking at an utter sellout this holiday, then why did Microsoft even bother with the "core system" / normal dichotomy? Seems like the move, which was designed to get the attention of mainstream/cost-conscious consumers in addition to the hardcore gaming crowd, is all but moot now that only the hardest of the hardcore, the ones willing to shell out for super-sized GAMES+ACCESSORIES+CABLES packages, will be able to purchase an XBox 360 this Christmas season. Smooth move, idiots.
  • No games for holidays.

    Even if I had the money, I wouldn't be be buying a new console for Christmas. Nor too many games.

    There's too much stuff on the market in the holiday time! Everyone's cramming their cruft to holiday markets! People are stressed! Prices are terrible! Everyone's chanting "buy, buy, buy!"

    So what if people won't get XBox360 for Christmas. It's not like the world is likely ending midnight, December 26th. There's plenty of time to get one later on.

    I was actually quite happy in March

    • Yeah I'm completely annoyed at this pump it out for Christmas shit. I usually play PC games and all summer I futilely looked for something to play - and then whammo! Tons of good releases. How in hell am I supposed to play Age of Empires, Civ 4, Quake 4, Call of Duty 2, City of Villains, Black and White 2 etc. etc.
      Grrrr.
      • The beauty of the holiday season isn't that you play all the games at once but you get other people to buy all these games for you. Holiday sales account for the vast majority of a stores business. This is because *everyone* is out buying things. Companies that want to sell product therefore want to have their product on the shelf for the people to select.

  • by AzraelKans ( 697974 ) on Monday November 07, 2005 @08:09PM (#13975020) Homepage
    If you check on the articles past year, you will notice every single article on the PSP predicted a shortage. Sony predicted a shortage, IGN, slashdot , etc. They even pulled "anti -shortage" schemes one psp per customer ,no change of PSP for dead pixels, etc. Does anyone remember having any problem to find a PSP on xmas? They do that based on PRE-SELLS only, and yes I bet there will be a "shortage" on pre-sells, since fans buy their stuff on those, but Alas regular people dont. Stores have bundles of those in the ware houses, and it turns out regular people wont buy them. So if you want one, dont "pre buy" it , just walk to any store and buy it, Im sure there will be plenty to go by.
  • If the product was so incredibly good, they would let it speak for itself on it's merits. Word of mouth is the best marketing. How do you get "word of mouth" when your product is crap? Force Joe to tell Billy how he as one and Billy doesn't.

  • How Bad Will The 360 Shortage Be?
    It won't be too bad. I'm not gonna buy one :).
  • For anyoen considering buying a 360, remember Mircosofts Rule of 3's. Verion 1 will fail spectacularly (Xbox and a few billion down the tubes), the next version will fail in a less sucktacular way (360 will be a moderate success, firmly #2 and lose microsoft hundreds of millions), and the Xbox 3 will be a resounding success finally making MS some money. I predict the third product will come out in 3 years, making the 360 one of the shortest console lifespans since the saturn.
  • by Thatto ( 258697 ) <boogiechillin AT gmail DOT com> on Tuesday November 08, 2005 @03:13AM (#13977053) Journal
    Let me preface this by saying I'm not a console gamer. I had PONG and an atari 2600 when they came out. Since, I have found the console gaming experience lacking. Ok, Halo and Halo2 are badass, but hardly worth the cost of the Xbox and assorted other accessories... Maybe I outgrew them...

    I have been reading and hearing about the 360 for a while. The hardware seems impressive. I can see a lot of potential for impressive physics, good graphics, and complex models. By and large, it seems the magic spell that Microsoft's PR department is casting is working. Gamers are abuzz with speculation and news of the 360.

    There will be no shortage.

    I worked at Best Buy when the PS2 was released, and I remember the same rumors of ps2 shortages. People were standing in line the night before. Families split up and stood in lines at different retailers around town. There was genuine concern that demand would not be met. My store had 80 to give out for opening day. Management told the prods (sales reps, product specialists.. whatever) that they were not to sell a ps2 without at *least* an extra controller, and a PRP (Product Replacement Plan). Best Buy is incredibly numbers oriented. Its not enough to sell a box, you have to sell a box "with cheese" i.e. with the higher profit items cables, controllers, PRP. Why else would a Prod recommend a "Monster Cable" surge supressor to ward off dead pixels? BTW Monster Cable costs about 25% of retail price. But I digress.....

    My point is that the shortage was artificial... Every store got an allotment of PS2s (80), and the next truck had more (for us, 130). People were so relieved that they got a PS2 opening day, that they coughed up the dough for all of the extra crap that they were told they *needed*.

    Maybe I am wrong. Time will tell.

    • "but hardly worth the cost of the Xbox and assorted other accessories... Maybe I outgrew them..."

      Nice troll. You snuck it in there and it appears no one noticed it. What does your personal growth have to do with playing video games? Growth implies a maturing. I used to enjoy hiking but have done it much less lately. Have I outgrown it? Video games are a hobby. If you want to look down your nose at people who play them, go ahead but don't come here to do it.

      As for me, I look down my nose at people who work

  • Wouldn't it make sense to increase the price to reduce demand to the maximum they can supply, and therefore increase profits?

    No doubt Microsoft are simply being benevolent to the gaming community, and any profit is secondary.
  • If Microsoft tries to pull an artificial shortage, they are likely to draw the wrath of the big non-electronics retailers like Wal-Mart and Target. I've seen how Wal-Mart deals with big name suppliers. They are in the position to strong arm anyone and they usually do. If Microsoft tries to pull a stunt like this and Wal-Mart catches wind of it, there's likely to be a lot more shelfspace for Sony and Nintendo come December. Basically for Microsoft to pull off a fake shortage, they'll still have to supply
  • by Tibor the Hun ( 143056 ) on Tuesday November 08, 2005 @11:43AM (#13978932)
    Considering that IBM only recently announced the beginning of production of the chips for the 360 maybe the shortage is more due to the chip supply than it is artificial.
    Article in question. [eweek.com]

    How many chips can they make in a month? 10000, 100000?

    Perhaps MS is about to learn why Apple switched from IBM.
  • I'm still working on a full WildHeart set, let alone starting on my Cenarion, how the heck am I going to find time for the Xbox 360?!
  • This is an artificial shortage, so it's going to be as bad as it "needs" to.

    Really, no karma-whoring today or I would've linked the 10 or so articles where that's all explained. Does /. get $1000 every time that xbox thingy is mentioned on the frontpage?

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