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PS3 Predicted to Lead Market Through 2011 314

Posted by Zonk from the you-missed-the-analysts-right dept.
eldavojohn writes "The Yankee Group (a Boston Technology firm) recently announced that it predicts Sony's PS3 to lead the market with a 44% share through 2011. Most interesting is their prediction that the Wii will maintain only 16% of the market share. From the article: 'The analyst group believes Sony will lead in next-gen market share by 44% in 2011, with Xbox 360 taking a close 40% share, followed by Wii with a wee little bitty 16% share.'"
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PS3 Predicted to Lead Market Through 2011 More

PS3 Predicted to Lead Market Through 2011

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  • Market Analysis (Score:5, Funny)

    by anti-human 1 ( 911677 ) on Thursday August 17, 2006 @03:00PM (#15928816) Journal
    I hereby predict that the Xbox 360 will have 100% market share of the "Next-Gen" market through September.

    Microsoft, can I have my check now?

  • Game over (Score:5, Funny)

    by whoop ( 194 ) on Thursday August 17, 2006 @03:01PM (#15928831) Homepage
    Well, it's been a fun ride Nintendo and Microsoft. They will be missed. PS3 is the bomb, it's now official. In order to stay cool, I will have to get the PS3 for all the neighborhood 8 year olds to ogle me.

  • Doesn't sound right (Score:5, Insightful)

    by dtfinch ( 661405 ) * on Thursday August 17, 2006 @03:01PM (#15928840) Journal
    My own prediction was that Wii will kick ass, at least in terms of units and games sold. But I suppose if a PS3 costs the same as 3-5 Wii's, Nintendo would have to sell 3-5 for every 1 PS3 to match their market share by the Yankee group's measure. Sort of like how Linux has a very low market share when measured by operating system license revenue.

    • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

      by Deliveranc3 ( 629997 )
      If Sony is losing money on each console and Nintendo is making money... Does not compute /-1 error!

      Bottom line market share won't matter as much with this gen, at 800$ people won't be buying games.

      Developing for an $800 console just seems like a bad bad idea.

    • Re:Doesn't sound right (Score:5, Interesting)

      by mausmalone ( 594185 ) on Thursday August 17, 2006 @04:33PM (#15929730) Homepage Journal
      Well, they were actually going by units sold.

      Funny that they claimed that there would be a small up-turn in total consoles sold next-gen over current gen, but somehow the total they predict for all 3 consoles comes in under what the PS2 sold. In Japan alone.

      Seriously, I doubt the Yankee Group's adding skills, much less their predicting skills.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by Shemmie ( 909181 )
      Speaking as a gamer who generally avoids games consoles (Having only ever owned a PSOne, PSP and a Jaguar) and sticks to the PC - the Wii is the first console to ever really excite me. I've never owned a single Nintendo machine, but I would be more than willing to part cash to get my hands on this. While I appreciate I can only speak for myself, if Nintendo is winning over people who've never had an interest in them before... well, combined with the loyal fanbase they have, surely the future must be bright?

      • Re:Doesn't sound right (Score:4, Interesting)

        by twistedsymphony ( 956982 ) on Thursday August 17, 2006 @05:07PM (#15930072) Homepage
        Wii is the first console to ever really excite me. I've never owned a single Nintendo machine, but I would be more than willing to part cash to get my hands on this. While I appreciate I can only speak for myself, if Nintendo is winning over people who've never had an interest in them before...
        While I think the Wii definitely has the potential it seems to at present only be winning over those people who have a pulse on the game industry. Those friends of mine IRL all seem to range from indifferent about the Wii to not knowing anything about it. Most people either own an Xbox 360 or claim that it looks nice but doesn't have the games they want. Out of the former PS2 owners I know about 3/4 of them have sworn Sony off altogether as crazy based on their pricing and the other 1/4 wants it no matter how much they charge "you know, because it's Sony..." Though that number even seems to be dropping by the day.

        I'd say Microsoft and Nintendo could run away with this next generation if they learn to market it well... get the Wii-Mote in peoples hands through kiosks, show off TV adds for all the different games in your library etc. If they could out-market Sony and publicly ridicule their price point then they'd have a fighting chance to combat the people who will buy the PS3 just because it's the sequel to the PS2.

        • Re: (Score:2, Informative)

          by joshsisk ( 161347 )
          My experience is totally different. I don't know a single person who owns a Xbox 360. I've never seen one outside of a store. Most of my friends are excited about the Wii... even friends who don't generally even buy consoles are kind of interested in it.

          However, most of my friends are more casual gamers or non-gamers. You may know more hardcore gamers. I only really have 1-2 friends who would qualify as hardcore... and one of those is a Nintendo FANATIC. Like, scarily so.
          • hmm, interesting... I'm probably the most "hardcore" out of all of my friends, but the other ones that I would consider to be more then just casual gamers are the ones that are interested in the Wii... the ones that I would consider to be casual gamers are the ones that seem pretty appathetic about it reguardless of how much I rave about it. The only one from that group interested in the Wii is someone who considers themself a Nintendo fantaic, even has a tri-force tatoo (despite the fact that she hasn't ow

            • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

              by aardvarkjoe ( 156801 )

              the ones that I would consider to be casual gamers are the ones that seem pretty appathetic about it reguardless of how much I rave about it.

              You have to realize, that from the perspective of someone who would rave about any game console, pretty much everyone is apathetic. You have to be pretty far beyond casual to care that strongly about hardware that is still several months out and that nobody really knows what it's like.

              For the record, I'm in the casual category. I have a gamecube, but I can't imagin

    • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

      by laird ( 2705 )
      I agree. Sony and Microsoft have gotten arrogant and are trying to sell what they want to sell, not what people want to buy. That is, Sony and MS both want to "own the living room" with a high-end PC-class machine with DVD player/internet/game/do everything hardware with the best spec's. What people want to buy is some cheap entertainment. If the Wii is more fun to play with, and costs half of what the PS3 and the XBOX 260 cost, it will win.

      To compare to the previous generations, MS and Sony are selling the

  • The Yankee group confirms... (Score:4, Funny)

    by soft_guy ( 534437 ) on Thursday August 17, 2006 @03:03PM (#15928858)
    Nintendo is dying.

    • If that means the Wii will run BSD, I'm all for it!

    • Re: (Score:2, Interesting)

      by jedi_chemist ( 995286 )
      Hmmm. The answer lies in the software not the hardware. I think as long as Sony holds the title of being the system to get Metal Gear, Final Fantasy, and the Grand Theft Auto games, people will buy their system. Nintendo needs to do something with the launch of Wii that it did not do with the previous two systems: have a good batch of games at launch. Apparently that is so because Zelda is going to be released for Wii. I know I bought a gamecube simply to play Wind Waker (and it was worth every penny!) and
    • They said that six years ago.
      They were wrong then.

  • Past != Future (Score:5, Insightful)

    by kannibal_klown ( 531544 ) on Thursday August 17, 2006 @03:04PM (#15928869)
    The "article" is pretty light on details. My guess is that they are looking to the past to forecast the future. While not a bad strategy I can't see that leading to much accuracy in the current scenario.

    In the past, the PS2 was in a class by itself (after destroying the Dreamcast). For a long time it was THE console to have, and by the time the others (GC and XBox) came into play it was too well entrenched and had a huge library of games.

    Now it will be competing with the XBox 360 (say what you want about it, but at least it's out already) and a newly released Wii. Unless there's a lot more going on than I'm aware of, I can't see how it will dominate for the next 5 years when:

    - it's entering a market already saturated with similar hardware specs (even if slightly weaker)
    - price entry

    Had they beaten the 360 and Wii to market, then I could see it. But this isn't the past.

  • Wii only gets 16% marketshare?!? (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Yvan256 ( 722131 ) on Thursday August 17, 2006 @03:05PM (#15928873) Homepage Journal
    Well, there we go. Proof that those so-called "expert/analysts" don't know anything aside from making shocking statistics to grab headlines.

    I predict about 70% for the Wii, 30% for the Xbox 360 and 15% for the PS3. I know it adds up to more than 100% but given all those "Xbox 360 + Wii = PS3" comments we've all heard so far, I think it's realistic.

    As for the Wii getting 70%? Well, don't forget that we can look at the Nintendo DS for proof: Nintendo are grabbing a lot of non-gamers and the Wii shouldn't be any different. A lot of so-called "hardcore gamers" will go for the Xbox 360 and/or the PS3, but they're only a tiny % of the general population.

    • Re:Wii only gets 16% marketshare?!? (Score:5, Insightful)

      by CaseM ( 746707 ) on Thursday August 17, 2006 @03:15PM (#15928964)
      I always find it interesting when people predict the Wii's success at this stage in the game. Most people were rather down on the DS when it was first announced ("What a gimmick...", etc.), what makes us so sure, now, that the we'll be any better at predicting the success of the Wii?

      • Re:Wii only gets 16% marketshare?!? (Score:5, Insightful)

        by timster ( 32400 ) on Thursday August 17, 2006 @03:22PM (#15929034)
        Well, when the DS was announced everyone was skeptical that the touchscreen would go anywhere. Many people were predicting that after a while most games wouldn't bother with touch controls and that we would end up with an overclocked GBA.

        The success of the DS, and in particular the success of the touchscreen interface, has caused people to rethink the idea of innovative controls. The Wii seems like an obvious extension of that; now the PS3 looks like little more than an overclocked PS2 (regardless of the changes in its internal architecture).

        Since the pattern of DS vs PSP seems almost identical to the Wii vs PS3, we figure that we can make a pretty good prediction.

        • Re: (Score:2)

          by grumbel ( 592662 )

          Many people were predicting that after a while most games wouldn't bother with touch controls and that we would end up with an overclocked GBA.

          And in the end thats also kind of what happened, there are still tons of games around (NSMB, Mario64, AdvanceWars, MarioKart, Castlevania, etc.) which make little or no use of the touchscreen. However the DS is successfull because those games are actually great and because those are not the only games available, there are also those games that do make use of the t

      • It's really all about price. Assuming that Nintendo doesn't do something crazy it is going to be far less expensive than the other consoles. Hard core gamers are going to pick one up so they can play the Nintendo exclusive titles, and folks that are only interested in buying one console will be far more likely to purchase the least expensive console, assuming that the games for it are any good.

        Nintendo's games are likely to be very good.

        The DS vs. PSP showdown is quite similar actually. On paper the

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by Valthan ( 977851 )
      ...no matter if I have 2 consoles or 3 it doesn't make the percentage increase above 100% because it is (# of console A/ # of all consoles)*100% that gives you the percentage...

      This Elementary Math Lesson Brought To You By Valthan
      • "...no matter if I have 2 consoles or 3 it doesn't make the percentage increase above 100% because it is (# of console A/ # of all consoles)*100% that gives you the percentage..."

        Yes, if you're looking at total numbr of consoles sold but I'd assumed the GP was talking about how many people own the consoles. In that case, it makes perfect sense to have numbers over 100%, because it's not comparative. For example, there are 100 people who own *any* next-gen console. 50 have a 360 AND a Wii, 30 have only a Wii

    • Re:Wii only gets 16% marketshare?!? (Score:5, Insightful)

      by jandrese ( 485 ) <kensama@vt.edu> on Thursday August 17, 2006 @03:22PM (#15929041) Homepage Journal
      I'm not going to make any predictions at all until I personally try out the Wii. With the 360 and PS3 I have a good idea of what I'm getting, but with the Wii there is a lot of margin for error. Everyone says the remote just works fine, but all they had was the E3 demo and whatever closed door stuff Nintendo does. If my mom hooks up the Wii to her somewhat crappy TV in the sunlit family room, is it going to work as well? I hope so, but if it doesn't you could see a lot of wind fall out of Nintendo's sails. At this point I really don't have enough information to even make an educated guess.

    • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

      by Blakey Rat ( 99501 )
      Let's get into full Slashdot Games mode.

      Wii only 15%? Man these people are clueless! Wii will have a 300% market share as every man woman and child in the world realizes that it's the best gaming console ever! It appeals to everyone and the controller is innovative! Also I'm sure only a few months into its lifetime, Nintendo will release a game that not only turns your kids into supergeniuses but also can cure cancer if left on overnight. But leaving it on overnight won't be a problem because the Wii a
    • I for one, have been thinking about getting a Wii when it comes out. The last console I actually played much of was Nintendo 64... after that, all the "Playstation style" games that came out really really didn't interest me... at all. I don't like long RPGs (Zelda 64 was about the longest RPG I could stand playing), and I don't like stupid sports games. I did play a little bit of Resident Evil 2 when it came out, but that was about it. I'm not into network gaming, either.

      But lately I've been digging int
    • I predict that you are 35% right, 84% wrong and 29% just a little off...

  • Wonder how they came up with those figures? (Score:5, Insightful)

    by hattig ( 47930 ) on Thursday August 17, 2006 @03:05PM (#15928875) Journal
    It doesn't look like they're taking cost or popular opinion into account.

    Wii: $199, with hopefully revolutionary must-have controller mechanism.

    Controller fad might die off, but it will still be fun to use. Lots of games.
    Weaker hardware allows cheap cost. Price is at the point where you can pick it up without thinking if theres a game that appeals. Free online play. Ideal christmas present for children too - cheap, and ideal for secondary TVs in the house rather than the main HDTV.

    360: $299 - $399
    PS£: $499 - $599

    Both of these are 'stop and think' purchases for anyone. You really have to justify the purchase.

    Of course, the price will come down over time for both of these - the PS3 will drop quite drastically once BluRay drives become cheaper to make, say around 2008. There'll probably be price parity by the end of 2008, Microsoft might have moved to HD-DVD inside the console. The Wii will be cheaper too, and fun games can spread like a fever like Guitar Hero has in my circle of friends. And Nintendo is popular because of the DS.

    At a time when people are tightening their purses and wallets because of higher cost of living, a high priced console is not the ideal product. Some games might be so 'must have' that a lot of consoles will sell, but I really do think that it will be 40-30-30 this time around - which wins is in the air right now.

    Nevermind that Sony is not popular right now, and can't do anything right.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by RyoShin ( 610051 )
      They came up with the numbers by using the Analyst Industry's regular method of calculating potential market share five years in advance: PFA.

      (Pulled From Ass)
      • Well, either that or the Yankee Group is hoping to play some games with Nintendo's stock price. They announce that Big N gets 16%, short the stock, then buy a bunch right before the Wii comes out. These estimates are not aimed at video game players, after all, they are aimed at investors.

  • Contradicting themselves? (Score:5, Interesting)

    by rolfwind ( 528248 ) on Thursday August 17, 2006 @03:06PM (#15928887)
    Also of note, the group believes fewer total consoles will be sold this next go-around due to higher console prices than were sold during the PS2, Xbox, and GameCube era. I thought the industry was suppose to grow? Either way, the Yankee Group also predicted constant Microsoft price undercutting. Next-Gen writes: "Microsoft is 'well-positioned' to cut the price of the Xbox 360 in spring 2007, potentially undercutting the $500-$600 PS3 by a wider margin. This pricing pressure from Microsoft is likely to continue throughout the course of the PS3's lifecycle, according to Yankee."


    Um, high prices, yet PS3 will dominate? MS will undercut PS3? What about Wii?

    Honestly, these numbers are suspect just due to lack of any real data points. The Wii is not the gamecube. The PS3 is not the PS2. And the Xbox360 does not equate to Xbox. The variable are different this time around.

    Personally, the Wii is the first console I'm planning on buying since the Playstation 1, and it's the 1st one I am hoping to spend a decent amount playing since SNES (I only ended up owning 3-4 PS 1 games, got it more out of habit than actual want and dropped out of gaming since).

    I think the Wii will wipe the floor with either. Graphics, at the level they are at, have ceased to be the most important factor to me, unlike 10 years back. Now it's all about fun.

    This post probably will be only echoing a point a million others have already and will make, but isn't that evidence in itself?

    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by Anonymous Coward
      When you're dealing with market analysis you have to remember one thing, most of the time the analyst doesn't understand the market they're doing research on; this tends to mean that they do their analysis on more general factors (brand recognition, market position, etc.). Ultimately, if you look at the Gaming market like you look at the Shampoo market it is easy to believe that the PS3 will dominate.

      The fact is that the console gaming market is very different from most markets you can examine. People buy g

    • Re:Contradicting themselves? (Score:5, Insightful)

      by brkello ( 642429 ) on Thursday August 17, 2006 @03:42PM (#15929213)
      When you surround yourself with people who think exactly like you, it's hard to see that other people think differently. I am not saying that this guy is right (I think he is wrong). But when you come on Slashdot, don't expect people to counter you on any positive statement on Linux, Macs, or Nintendo. It gives the illusion that everybody out there is just like you and will be buying a Wii first. This is not true. Nintendo still has the kiddy image. While that doesn't matter to a slashdotter, it matters to others. The PS3 will be seen as the more mature console and will thus appeal to the teen/early 20s crowd. It is funny to read slashdot posts that are already claiming victory for the Wii when it isn't out yet. Maybe I have out grown being excited over things. I will wait unitl it is out. Wait until the bugs have been ironed out. Wait until a price drop...then decide what I will purchase. It seems like most people on here are terrible consumers...that drool over things that don't exist yet. While Nintendo does have a good reputation, they have made plenty of stupid mistakes in the past to warrant caution. Patience is a virtue.

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by Belgand ( 14099 )
        Teens, maybe, but a great, great many of us in our early to mid-twenties have a very strong love of Nintendo going back to childhood. These franchises took root then and are going to be a hard habit to kick now.

      • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

        by hexix ( 9514 )
        I would also suggest to you not to disregard something because it is said on Slashdot. What the post you replied to was saying is something I've been hearing in many places other than just Slashdot.

        Many people who grew up playing video games have lost interest. The games have become too complicated and often force you to sit through 5-10 minutes of story telling before even letting you attempt to play. If you're not into remembering which button throws grenades, which shoots your gun, which brings up you
    • Um, high prices, yet PS3 will dominate?

      Very possible, if people prefer the PS3 as a console. The highest price in a market is not nessicarily the one with the lowest market share. It's a lot cheaper to buy Big K soda or other generic equivilent yet Coke still domiantes the soda market.

      MS will undercut PS3?

      Yes, and? It seems pretty clear they will do so (though the last I head they had no plans for price cuts this Christmas since the PS3 is more expensive to start with).

      What about Wii?

      The Wii at this poin
    • "Personally, the Wii is the first console I'm planning on buying since the Playstation 1"

      I waited on the PS1 until they had the PSOne (mini one), then I waited on the PS2 until I could find a used one for $70 this summer. I rush out and bought the PSP though but I've been regretting it, the promse of "handheld PS2" just hasn't come true, it's been nearly 18 months and there's still no God of War or Gran Turismo game yet. I never bothered with the Xbox or Gamecube.

      Out of all the next gen consoles the

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by garcia ( 6573 )
      Um, high prices, yet PS3 will dominate? MS will undercut PS3? What about Wii?

      What about it? I don't care how much the Wii costs, from what I have seen (mostly here because no one else seems to give a shit about it) it won't offer me what I like to play. The XBox and the PS3 do/will.

      Personally, the Wii is the first console I'm planning on buying since the Playstation 1, and it's the 1st one I am hoping to spend a decent amount playing since SNES (I only ended up owning 3-4 PS 1 games, got it more out of ha

      • I owned one game for the PS1. I owned a couple more for the PS2 because it came with 5. I play three (GT1 -- originaly for the PS1, Katamari and We Love Katamari) on the PS2. I don't see what your point is that you will be buying more games for the Wii...

        I had so little games for the PS1 because I didn't play it all that much nor care for the games available. The last game I actually played and liked was Metal Gear Solid. I didn't drop out of gaming because of anything other than boredom with what gaming

        • Re: (Score:2)

          by garcia ( 6573 )
          the Wii is bringing me back:) And I see lots of other people coming back too.

          I only see that trend here on Slashdot, sorry.
    • That might be because the SNES generation of systems were the first systems to have good graphics. They couldn't do photo realistic, or fantastic 3D, but I believe that many games had graphics that looked just like the developer wanted them to. Everything after that was no longer a matter of making the graphics look good, but making the graphics look more realistic, and moving from 2D to 3D.

      After the games looked good, a new kind of gammer entered the market. The old school gamers that were more conce

  • Now hear this! (Score:5, Funny)

    by Rob T Firefly ( 844560 ) on Thursday August 17, 2006 @03:10PM (#15928916) Homepage Journal
    I, along with my respected technology firm of Dewey, Cheatem, and Howe, and Dionne Warwick's psychic friends, combined with enough Magic Eight Balls to count up to 480, do hereby predict that the Virtual Boy will make a major comeback and obtain 67% of the market. Following by a close second with 54% will be a Tiger Handheld LCD version of The Lion King, with the remaining 32% playing with some sticks and gravel they found on the ground.

    Please send the usual large bags of moneys for my business-analyisisting fees to my Summerhouse in the Hamptons, will you? thx.
  • They're Yankees in Boston: of course they're confused.

  • Are we too sure? (Score:4, Funny)

    by Mykid8yours ( 988498 ) on Thursday August 17, 2006 @03:16PM (#15928979)
    That is if PS3 does ever make it out by 2011.

  • Guys, guys, guys... (Score:5, Insightful)

    by thatguywhoiam ( 524290 ) on Thursday August 17, 2006 @03:32PM (#15929128)
    Yes the article is completely speculative. But don't think for one second that the majority opinion of slashdot is in any way indicative of the general public. (I refer you to the original iPod posting.)

    While the nerd crowd here can look at the Wii (uh, that name...) and be pleased with the innovative interface, the low price, the focus on gameplay over graphics and yes, substance... this isn't how the marketing will flow.

    Sony will drive dumptrucks of money to ad agencies all over the planet. It will be like a blitzkrieg of PS3 as we approach the launch; I wouldn't be surprised if they spent $100 million on ads alone. Microsoft will counter, having anticipated this for years, and probably roll out their own add-on HD drive as well - more marketing insanity to follow.

    Nintendo will of course do their own marketing push, but don't be surprised if you hate the approach they take. Big N is after 'the rest of us', the non-gamer, and will appropriately tailor their messaging to this end. That means, more girls, more moms, more people who do not typically play video games. Yes, there will be Metroid and a few others to keep the original fans happy. But it will not be the juggernaut that Sony and MS will unleash. Its just not the same market anymore.

    I like the Wii but I think that this go-round they only have a shot at 2nd place, at best. The videogame market has eclipsed the filmmaking industry for several years now, and the people who put it there are you guys, buying the kind of games you like. That's where most of the money is. Nintendo is gambling big time with this new machine; they want to create a new segment of the market, sort of like the iPod did. Good for them. But this is a risky strategy. Sony and Microsoft are taking the safe route, MS the safest of all.

    It may not make for great headlines to the crusty gamer crowd here who appreciates Nintendo's willingness to break the mold, but for general 'consumption' I acutally tend to agree with the market analysis of FTA. For different reasons than they stated.

    • Nintendo is gambling big time with this new machine; they want to create a new segment of the market, sort of like the iPod did. Good for them. But this is a risky strategy.

      The Nintendo DS, along with its friends Nintendogs and Brain Age, say you're wrong. And they say you're wrong to the tune of 21+ million sales in 18 months worldwide with THIRTEEN [wikipedia.org] million+ selling games. Nintendogs alone is over 7 million worldwide.

      "Risky" isn't exactly the word I'd use here.

  • -1 flamebait (Score:3, Interesting)

    by brkello ( 642429 ) on Thursday August 17, 2006 @03:33PM (#15929137)
    That's all this is on Slashdot considering how Nintendo heavy the fans are around here. If you just read here, you would have to assume the only console people will buy is the Wii. It will be really insteresting to see how the 3 compete this year. It surely won't be 70% wii as Mr. fanboy posted up earlier...but Nintendo at has a decent chance this time around to be competitive as far as sales go (we all know they will be the most profitable). I really don't care who wins. Competition is a good thing because it forces companies to innovate, increase quality, or reduce prices. People who want Nintendo to destroy the competition are morons. With no competition their next console could be like the VirtualBoy. I hope all the companies do well and continue to bring us better things at a competitive price.
    • Well, if you recall this poll [slashdot.org], /. thought Sony would be ahead back in March. But that was before the price announcement. And most people assumed that the PS3 would be priced similar to the 360, and that the Rev would be 200 anyway, but the new controller hadn't been unvieled either. So, perhaps it may be time for a new poll.

  • Proposal: (Score:3, Informative)

    by earthbound kid ( 859282 ) on Thursday August 17, 2006 @03:34PM (#15929144) Homepage
    Slashdot has run a number of articles about analysts predicting this or that console manufacture will sell X or Y million machines in the next generation, so to help us sort through the archives more efficiently, I propose that we all use the same tag to mark these stories for quick searching.

    The tag?

    "Bullshit".

  • Typo (Score:4, Insightful)

    by antifoidulus ( 807088 ) on Thursday August 17, 2006 @03:38PM (#15929180) Homepage Journal
    should read "PS2 to lead through 2011". That is my armchair prediction anyway. Microsoft has a nice niche market for themselves but cannot seem to grow. Nintendo will carve out a potentially bigger niche, and Sony will shoot themselves in the foot, but honestly I don't think that any of the next gens will reach anywhere near the market penetration of the playstation 2.

    • Re: (Score:2, Interesting)

      by TheFlamingoKing ( 603674 )
      No.

      I guarantee to you that all the optical drives in all PS2s will die by 2009. That's even if you go out and buy one now. That is Sony's ultimate plan to make you buy a PS3 with their fancy new Blue-DRM - so you can play all those games you have on your shelf since your PS2 died.

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by Trifthen ( 40989 )
        Are you kidding? I reserved my PS2 a year before it was released. I have a V1 console, probably the buggiest, most expensive, and oldest version alive. I play constantly, as I play RPGs and DDR for hours every week, and have since I received it in 2000. I've used it in the vertical position, in the horizontal position, moved to a new apartment four times, left it on overnight multiple times on accident, and let it sit covered in dust in a cramped entertainment center, and it still won't die. I know my
    • it seems to me Sony's biggest competitor will be the huge backlog of ps2 games. I mean, I've got nearly 50 ps2 games I'm dying to play, and they just keep making more (Valkyrie Profile 2, Rouge Galaxy, Flatout 2). I can't justify buying a ps3 until I get caught up on my ps2 games.

  • Really, Its true! (Score:5, Funny)

    by Mysteerie ( 972719 ) on Thursday August 17, 2006 @03:43PM (#15929220)
    PS3 will lead the market and the Phantom will be released. Duke Nukem Forever will be completed. Hell will freeze over, pigs will fly and I'll say ye haw!
  • Look at Nintendo's dominance of the handheld market in Japan (and the world). Look at Nintendo's appraoch to maketing games to literally every demographic from toddlers to the elderly. Look at all the interest being generated about the Wii (E3). Look at the price differences between the new consoles and Nintendo's. They're taking a very different approach to a next generation system, we can't reliably use past performance to guage what will happen. Especially that far in the future.

  • A new law... (Score:5, Interesting)

    by MrTester ( 860336 ) on Thursday August 17, 2006 @04:01PM (#15929381)
    From now on, all marketing firms are required to have a % of correctmarket predictions following their name on all articles.

    i.e.

    "The Yankee Group (10%) (a Boston Technology firm) recently announced that it predicts Sony's PS3 to lead the market with a 44% share through 2011. Most interesting is their prediction that the Wii will maintain only 16% of the market share. From the article: 'The analyst group believes Sony will lead in next-gen market share by 44% in 2011, with Xbox 360 taking a close 40% share, followed by Wii with a wee little bitty 16% share.'"

    Those that do not comply will be publicly flogged and generally shunned.
  • so with this article, can i infer that i'll get a raise and actually be able to afford a PS3, thus leading to it's market dominance? sweet!

  • Nintendo's living Sega's dream (Score:5, Insightful)

    by rsilvergun ( 571051 ) on Thursday August 17, 2006 @04:11PM (#15929479)
    to have an extremely profitable console platform that they release most of the A-List titles on. Sega tried this with the Saturn. They ignored developers (actually, they treated them like dirt) and pushed their first party titles to the detriment of 3rd party (in the States, this didn't happen in Japan). It killed the console. Nintendo pulled if off though. To be fair, they didn't do it by being jerks to their 3rd parties, they just can't get too many A-List 3rd parties since there's not enough room to manuever in the Gamecube's install base. Still, the Big N doesn't really care about raw market share, because they can be pretty damn sure that all or most of that 16 percent will buy their software. Sega wanted that, and I guess they got it, but the videogame market was smaller and their share closer to 2% or 3% by the time all was said and done.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by hkmwbz ( 531650 )
      to have an extremely profitable console platform that they release most of the A-List titles on.
      With GameCube, yes. With Wii, no.

  • Re: (Score:2, Funny)

    by account_deleted ( 4530225 )
    Comment removed based on user account deletion

  • What the hell? (Score:2, Insightful)

    by EchoBinary ( 912851 )
    Who is anyone to say that anything will lead any marked for that amount of time? That is quite an arrogant boast IMHO. Whoever made such claims has balls.
  • but I really want a wii game that has star wars lightsaber fighting. Maybe I'm alone but I think they could clean up on that game by itself.

  • Wrong conclusions, but maybe flawed metrics too? (Score:5, Interesting)

    by Maudib ( 223520 ) on Thursday August 17, 2006 @04:46PM (#15929853)
    I think market share is a silly metric in some ways. Nintendo is the most profitable of all the game companies for the the last several years, despite market share. This is because they dont take a loss on hardware, have tons of highly profitable in house titles, and dont blow billions on marketing. Sony plans on loosing about $1 Billion dollars launching the PS3, and I think Microsoft lost more then that. Who cares about market share, isnt there end goal to turn a profit? Show me the breakdown on profits per system over the next 5 years please.

    Just based on my own experience with a large number of gaming friends, the Wii will probably sell like crazy. The gamers I know fall into two groups (1) Plays tons of games for hours at a time (2) Casual gamers that just occassionally want to have fun.

    My Group 1 friends own all systems. They have a PC, PSP, a DS Lite, a 360 and a PS2. Interestingly enough, the DS Lite gets the most play it seems (if you discount WOW on the PC that is).

    Group 2 friends all universely have a PC, and an X-Box or a PS2 (not both), and most have a DS Lite. Withought exception they plan on getting a Wii, and remain uninterested in PS3 and Xbox 360.

    When you consider the number of people who arent hardcore gamers, which system is going to be more popular? The system that appeals to only the hardcore, or the system with broadbased appeal? Maybe systems like the 360 and PS3 are destined to be niche devices for the hardcore gamer, and platforms with broadbased appeal will become more common? Unlikely, but certainly a strong argument against the skewed numbers in the article.
  • The PS3 uses Rambus memory. If you have any shred of nerd decency tell everyone you know that is thinking of buying a PS3 to boycott Sony and get a Wii or 360 instead.

  • As someone who is not a gamer... (Score:3, Interesting)

    by owlnation ( 858981 ) on Thursday August 17, 2006 @05:04PM (#15930029)
    So, I've never ever in my life played either a playstation, an Xbox, or anything similar in the way of gaming. I am not a market analyst, nor a gaming expert, and am not being paid by Sony or any other vested interest - as I strongly suspect the Yankee group may be...

    However, despite my total lack of interest in gaming for the past 20 years, the Wii has caught my eye. I want one. The name is silly, but even so, it actually looks FUN! If it actually delivers as much as it promises then they will soar.

    There's a whole non-gamer gaming market out there - just like me. Even girls would buy one if they do an OMG Ponies!!!1!! game (and they should).

    If I want one so will others. Don't listen to the Sony and MS shills!

    Yeah...I know... never touched a game...I'll be handing in my Geek ID card at the end of the article.
  • Is like stating that the unborn son of Jim Smith is going to be the next president
  • 44+40+16 = 100 now what about the other game units that are produced and sold worldwide, like the DSLite or PSP? Oh, you idiots totally forgot about that, right?

    This article is pure FUD, and should be tagged as such. Speculation or not they totally fail to do what any GOOD group would do and consider other factors.

  • The turbulence makes it impossible to predict... (Score:5, Interesting)

    by 7Prime ( 871679 ) on Thursday August 17, 2006 @07:40PM (#15931225) Homepage Journal

    Marketting survey's are so irrelivant right now. The Wii is just such a huge wildcard, it's virtually impossible to predict what's going to transpire in the first 3 months after console release, and even harder to predict what the market will be like after the first year. No other generation launch can top this one for pure strangeness and unexpected variables. Two consoles are slated to be launched within the same month, as well as a metric ton of best selling game series (Zelda, Metroid, Final Fantasy XII, among others)... this alone has never happened before. Probably the closest console launch I've seen to date was between the GameCube and the XBox which were, what, 6 months apart? The turbulance that will insue from such drastically apposing marketting models during that month will be the most interesting to watch since the dawn of the mass market video game, itself. Any number of unexpected situations may arise:

    • Wii launch is a success, and then everyone takes the system home to find that the Wiimote is glitchy and uncomfortable for long-term use, sales plummit as launch purchasers warn their friends. The system is religated to using the GCN controller, and fizzles.
    • Wii launch is a huge success, the Wiimote turns out to be even more fun then expected, and titles like Red Steal and Madden2007 begin to capture the attention of the "hardcore" and sports crowds, which flock away from the 360 and PS3, assuring the Wii's dominance in the next generation.
    • Wii launch is average to low, but becomes an overnight hit with its audience, spurring a national movement along the lines of the iPod, virtually overnight, over the next 3 months, sales gradually increase to market dominance levels.
    • The PS3 launches surprisingly strongly, although its innitial sales are only moderately successfull. After the first price drop, however, all the "price drop watchers" come running, and sales soar, putting Sony back on top of the console market.
    • The launch of the PS3 and Wii marks the end of the last gen. People, unwilling to spend $600 on a console, and uneasy about the Wii's new control setup, finally put down their money on the 360, which saurs to the top of the charts.
    • PS3 launches very well, and continues to do very well.

    Now, I think it's unlikely that the PS3 is going to see groundbreaking success (which is really what it needs to combat a fully functioning Microsoft and a groundbreaking Nintendo), I do think that Sony's chances of doing well in this generation are pretty slim, but you never know. And as I said, the turmoil caused by the first few months of two consoles being released virtually similtaniously is going to be hard to predict.

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