History To Repeat Itself With PS3?

Dr. Eggman writes to mention a 1up article looking at the way things were when the PS2 launched vs. next week's PlayStation 3 launch. The question: can history repeat itself? From the article: "PS2: Released one year after the lower priced Dreamcast, lauded for its great games, ease of development, and superior online service. PS3: Releasing one year after the lower priced Xbox 360, lauded for its great games, ease of development, and superior online service. PS2: Competition from Nintendo: A smaller, cheaper 'family friendly' console with a 'focus on gameplay.' PS3: Competition from Nintendo: A smaller, cheaper 'family friendly' console with a 'focus on gameplay.'" The article also looks at how things have changed for Sony since the last time around.

The Other side of the coin

[rednip (186217)]

It's a good article, in particular because the link at the end of the page gives a link to 10 reasons the PS2 won't be able to repeat the success of the PS2. [1up.com]

For me it's all about the price

Re:

[MaXiMiUS (923393)]

That's the exact same article, and I think you mean the PS3 won't be able to repeat the success of the PS2.

Re:

[AKAImBatman (238306)]

The article is full of them. My personal favorite is the photo of the XBox 360 where the PS3 should be. (First set of images, even!) I almost have to wonder if 1UP has been hacked...

Re:The Other side of the coin

[creimer (824291)]

That's funny. I'm reading "Just for Fun: The Story of an Accidental Revolutionary" by Linus Torvalds that was published in 2001. Linus predicted that Sony would be the next big thing after Microsoft -- if Sony got its act together. A few million laptop batteries and an overpriced game console later, I don't think Sony has a clue. Nintendo might if they get their act together.

For God's Sake

[rsilvergun (571051)]

the ps3 is _not_ over priced. Just because you (and I :( ) don't have the scratch (or aren't willing to fork it over if you do), doesn't mean it's overpriced. The pre orders sold out, instantly. By definition it's not over priced. The only way it will become over priced is if Sony fails to drop the prices as sales slow and costs come down. Then it will be overpriced. Until then, if anything it's severely under priced. It's going for well over $600 dollars on ebay and all indications are that the bids aren't

That's not the real reason

[mcvos (645701)]

The real reason why the PS2 was such a success, is that it was a very cheap DVD player, and DVDs had just become established technology.

The PS3 is a cheap Blu-Ray player, but Blu-Ray is by no means established. Instead of using the DVD to launch the PS2, they're trying to do the reverse: using the PS3 to launch Blu-Ray. I don't think that will work nearly as well. In fact, I expect it to fail miserably.

$300 a "very cheap" DVD player in 2000?!

[PoderOmega (677170)]

You could get good DVD players (Panasonic brand) in $150 in late 2000. That's half the price of the PS2 when it came out. I didn't have a DVD player and I thought it was a good selling point when I got my PS2 in 2001, but I did not think it was a "very cheap" DVD player.

The DVD player contributed it, but it is by far the "real" reason it was so successful.

Re:

[blahplusplus (757119)]

"The real reason why the PS2 was such a success, is that it was a very cheap DVD player, and DVDs had just become established technology."

I really doubt it, how many people knew the PS2 doubled as a DVD player? I'd venture to guess not that many (at least in north america) maybe in Japan where the people are more tech savvy and cultured. The xbox also played DVD's yet didn't sell anywhere close to what the PS2 did. People bought the PS2 because they were looking forward to the sequels of their favorite g

Re:

[drinkypoo (153816)]

I disagree. I knew several people with PS2's when they came out, and not a single person even used the DVD player, let alone decided to purchase a PS2 because of it.

Obviously you don't know parents with kids.

Also, you don't know me or any of my PS2-owning friends, all of whom used their PS2 as a DVD player. DVD players were expensive at the time and most of us didn't have one, but were willing to shell out money for a PS2. As it is, I didn't get mine at launch time, I waited for a price drop. Ended u

Playing DVDs on the PS2 is very nice!

[MS-06FZ (832329)]

I agree! It's very convenient to be able to use my PS2 to play my DVDs, I don't need to have another machine hooked up or worry about video swit-

DISC READ ERROR

Re:That's not the real reason

[johnpaul191 (240105)]

i did know some people that justified the price of the PS2 because it had a DVD player. at the time a DVD player was what, $200+? whatever the price was, people (i knew) thought of it like: (PS2 cost) - (DVD player cost) = acceptable increase if they were going to buy a standalone DVD player anyway. i suppose a test of this is knowing how many of those DVD remotes they sold.

i agree that the PS3 does not have the same bonus appeal. DVDs were so much better than VHS, the jump to the new formats does not seem to have the same upgrade feel. if you dropped the money on a HD flat panel TV etc etc and care that much to upgrade all your movies.... the cost issue is probably insignificant.

i agree that this is going to be the opposite effect..... people will now just happen to have a Blu-Ray compatible player so they may start buying some movies on that format (if there is some special edition or something). i have a feeling the quality issues won't be enough at this point, for this audience at least.

Re:

[AliasTheRoot (171859)]

Which comes back to DVD being an established format with clear reasons to upgrade to. So in the case of PS2 it was a value add, it was a console that gave you DVD playback for a decent price. Bluray isn't established, and you are paying a premium for a feature that isn't adding value.

Re:The Other side of the coin

[AKAImBatman (238306)]

I was reading the USA Today this morning, and they had an interesting outlook on the PS3 vs. the Wii vs. the XBox 360. It basically came down to:

PS3: You're not getting one. Ha!
Wii: Risky, but inexpensive.
XBox: Just fork over the cash for instant gratification.

I think that says a lot about the mainstream views on this generation of console.

The article can be read online here:

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/gaming/2006-11-09-con sole-cover_x.htm [usatoday.com]

Re:

[Gnostic Ronin (980129)]

For one thing, you're talking about Japan choosing ps3 over xbox. I'll let you in on a secret about Japan. If there are two comperable systems one from Japan and one from anywhere else, Japanese will by the Japanese product. The complaints were price-related, at least as far as I can tell, and price won't deter the Japanese public from buying the Japanese product whilst leaving the similar American product in the dust.

Call it patriotism, xenophobia, racism, whatever. That's just how the consumer cultur

Re:

[shimpei (3348)]

Well, I will let you in on a few secrets myself.

Apple.
Dell.
Coca-Cola.
Proctor & Gamble.
VISA.

All of them are doing very well in a supposedly xenophobic Japanese market, even though credible domestic alternatives exist. The Japanese people are perfectly happy to take Western products over Japanese products if they are in fact superior to needs in Japan, and is marketed properly. Microsoft can't blame the society for the horrendous performance over here.

As for the "Hard-Core" gamer segment, no, So

Re:The Other side of the coin

[fistfullast33l (819270)]

$600 doesn't leave much room for any games

Of course, Sony not having many launch titles (Oblivion, I'm looking at you) means you don't need any games for your $600 videogame system!

Re:The Other side of the coin

[BagOBones (574735)]

Only two of the launch titles are unique to the PS3 as well, the rest are already available on the 360

Re:The Other side of the coin

[Mr. Underbridge (666784)]

You have a valid point, but in this case, both the Wii and the PS3 look like gourmet products. I think kids would appreciate any 3 of the systems, as long as they get a few games too. $600 doesn't leave much room for any games, but $250 certainly does.

You'd think that, but the other way of thinking would be, if you're going to spend $600 you'll damned sure buy some games for it! It's also effective market segmentation - restricted supply at the beginning with a high price tag, followed by increased supply and lower prices later.

I think what happened is they saw what went down with the Xbox 360. They see every unit being scraped up and sold on Ebay for between $600 and $1000. Sony probably figures if anyone is going to profit from the craze, it's going to be them. And if they have the sorts of supply problems that has plagued nearly every console launch in the history of mankind, demand WILL drive the price there anyway. No sense in watching someone else make the money instead.

Re:

[hexix (9514)]

I was thinking something along those lines too. The problem is I just went to Gamestop the other day and they had a demo Wii unit setup to play. The game on it was Excite Truck and it was hooked up to a LCD tv that might have been HD-capable. The connectors however were just the standard ones that come with the Wii and don't enable the progressive scan support. Because of this the graphics looked insanely bad. It was next to a game cube and the game cube's graphcis actually looked better (probably due

Re:

[CronoCloud (590650)]

You're forgetting the PS3 does more than the PS2 does.

Download Yellow Dog Linux in a few weeks and it has all the functionality of a PS2 equipped with a Linux kit.

It does PS1/PS2 games too.

Music, photo and video.

There's a built in web browser

Built in WiFi

Built in ethernet

Built in card reader.

It does more so it costs more

summary:

[by Anonymous Coward]

same games, better graphics, pay us again

Simple Answers to Slashdot Questions

[vought (160908)]

History To Repeat Itself With PS3?

No.

This has been another episode of Simple Answers to Slashdot Questions.

Re:

[d34thm0nk3y (653414)]

History To Repeat Itself With PS3?
No.

I disagree.

Unfortunately for them, it is the history of Betamax.

Re:

[jZnat (793348)]

Pretty much all the significant changes in video games have come from Nintendo (e.g. controllers, the existence of and evolution of, a few game genres).

Re:summary:

[twistedsymphony (956982)]

have you used the 360? MS is doing a whole lot of innovative things with the 360, some of it had rudimentary versions implemented on the Xbox 1 that have evolved into more refined features on the 360. The Dreamcast and the Saturn had a few minor innovative features, but there is more to innovation then hardware changes. Would you consider innovation in the PC space dead because we're all still using a keyboard and mouse? MS is innovating in the software arena and with their online service. Some of the things they've done that I consider to be innovative and Nintendo and Sony seem to be copycatting with their latest offerings:

• A unified online profile that contains all of your stats and setting across all of your games
• The ability to access and modify that profile online bringing your console presence to the PC
• An online feedback system that links to your unified profile that allows you to avoid or prefer players allowing you to keep playing others you enjoy playing with and avoid others you don't enjoy playing with
• The ability to access a set of controls with the touch of a button at any time allowing you to adjust various console and profile settings, adjust custom soundtracks, send and receive messages, view information about your profile and the profiles of the gamers you're playing against, etc.
• The ability to set your preferred controls... axis inversion etc. and have it be used for every game
• The "TrueSkill [microsoft.com]" skill raking algorithm for match making online with people at your skill level
• "Custom Soundtracks" that allow you to easily replace the in-game music with music from from a storage device, an iPod, or a networked computer
• Achievements which add replay value to games by suggesting goals and setting challenges that a gamer might not otherwise attempt
• Gamerscore derived from achievement that creates a sort of Meta-game that encompasses all games on their console
• The Xbox Live Arcade (which was started with the Xbox 1) for downloadable games and content delivery directly to the console

Some of these ideas start on the Xbox 1, and PC but have been really fleshed out and turned into really solid, beneficial and most importanly universal features. None of these have been done on other consoles to my knowledge.

Re:

[epiphani (254981)]

On that list, there are very few things that are truly innovative. Most are simply a natural progression. Look at every one of those, and think to yourself... I'm designing an online gaming system for a console. What would I do. Nothing on that list is one of those "EUREKA" moments of actual epiphany (except maybe this Gamerscore thing you mentioned, which I know not.)

Re:

[NineNine (235196)]

The controller is a gimmick. A bad gimmick at that. Somehow, I can't see a lot of people swinging around the room after the novelty wears off in the first 10 minutes. That stupid Nintendo controller will sink Nintendo faster than you can say "Power Glove"

Online support?

[Enoxice (993945)]

Maybe I just wasn't as well-informed back in '99-'00, but I don't recall much talk about online plans during the launches. I mean, ChuChu Rocket and PSO were big deals for the DC, but I don't recall the PS2 boasting superior online play right out of the gate...

History doesn't repeat itself...

[Total_Wimp (564548)]

... because today is not like yesterday. For example, online game play wasn't as important when the Dreamcast was released. Also, sales were sluggish from the beginning as people held their money for the PS2 launch which was not the case with the 360.

The PS3 might still dominate, but it's not likely to be for the exact same reasons as in the past.

TW

Repeating history? I hope not..

[Channard (693317)]

... otherwise we can look forward to the PS3's lens giving out shortly after the warranty period and refusing to read half of the discs. The PS2 lens problems made the 360's failure rate look like a drop in the ocean? Nope, this isn't intended as flamebait - it happened to me, and I was only able to get it working, sort of, by cracking the PS2 open and changing the lens angle. What Joe Public who's never even opened a PC was supposed to do, other than buy a new one, I don't know.

Ease of what?

[grammar fascist (239789)]

PS3 has ease of development going for it?

The article also compares "the average price for PS2 on ebay [sic] in November 2000" with "the price for the higher end PS3 when it releases in November 2006." Stock eBay vs. high-end retail price? And this is supposed to be a formula?

Sony doesn't much care how they compare to Xbox...

[rilister (316428)]

i think people are a little confused about what Sony are trying to achieve with the PS3. Sure, it's going to be up against the Wii and XB360, but I'm guessing that's a secondary concern to Mr Stringer.

The PS2 sold 105million units. Let's say the PS3 is a disaster - how bad could it be? 50million? 25million?

Those are all Blu-ray devices. At least an installed base of 25million Blu-ray players sold in a few years time. Versus how many HD-DVD players? How can HD-DVD compete with that kind of a headstart?

Owning the next-gen DVD format is the prize here. HD-DVD is only 33% ahead of Blu-ray today, before the PS3 even hits the market. I think that's more precious to Sony than losing a bit of ground to Microsoft. Maybe they calculated on losing gaming market share this time round.

Re:Sony doesn't much care how they compare to Xbox

[Black Pete (222858)]

How can HD-DVD compete with that kind of a headstart?

Easily. HD-DVD has the letters "DVD" in it. That has an immediate meaning in the average consumer's head: It's like DVD, but now it's in HD! Just like how a HD-TV is like a TV but in HD!

HD-DVD, regardless of how well it actually performs, has an immediate name recognition. The name "Blu-ray" really doesn't convey any meaning to the average Joe Blow -- unless s/he already did the homework. It doesn't exactly scream, "This is better than DVD!"

Re:

[Al Dimond (792444)]

Even if there's a drive that plays all (which as my elder sibling points out hasn't really happened yet), I think that only one of the two formats will win in the end. I don't think there's room on store shelves for two the-same-but-different copies of every movie. The Internet, where shelf space isn't a problem, will lessen that , but if one of the two formats gets critical mass the other will be marginalized. Controlling the format is not a means to the end of making The Big Bucks (tm) by selling hardw

Re:

[justchris (802302)]

Which is why more and more I'm thinking Nintendo's strategy is brilliant, releasing 2 days after the PS3. Remember last year when the 360 was in the news for over a month with shortages and games and all that? Now, the PS3 will get that press for two days and two days only, then all the news will be about the Wii. Even after the big rush, no single story about the PS3 will be in the news that doesn't also mention the Wii. Nintendo has basically assured themselves equal media attention to Sony by riding

History To Repeat Itself?

[Rik Sweeney (471717)]

So basically it'll boil down to:

1. The naysayers will say that it'll suck
2. It'll sell beyond expectations
3. The naysayers deny the first statement and claim they knew all along

History's not repeating

[Volante3192 (953645)]

PS2: Competition from Nintendo: A smaller, cheaper 'family friendly' console with a 'focus on gameplay.' released one year after the PS2

PS3: Competition from Nintendo: A smaller, cheaper 'family friendly' console with a 'focus on gameplay.' released concurrently with the PS3."

Fixed your article. Where's my co-author credit?

Re:History's not repeating

[meringuoid (568297)]

PS3: Competition from Nintendo: A smaller, cheaper 'family friendly' console with a 'focus on gameplay.' released concurrently with the PS3."

In Europe, Wii is getting released Before Christmas, PS3 is getting released After Christmas, which I'd guess will be hugely important. That said, from what I hear from my contacts in the school playground (which is to say my little sister) the DS Lite is the must-have Christmas gift this year...

It's the price, stupid.

[poot_rootbeer (188613)]

If we're going to look at the past to predict the future, let's look at these facts:

No console with a launch price higher than $300 (at the time of launch) has ever been a success.

No console with a launch price higher than $400 (adjusted for inflation to 2006 dollars) has been a success since prior to The Crash of 1982.

Sony took a huge risk in pricing their new console so far outside of the historical comfort zone for price, and I don't think the outlook for them is good at all. I only wonder what derisive name will ultimately be attached to their failure:
P$3?
PS3DO?
PS3O-GEO?

Sega Issues

[therage96 (912259)]

One important item to make note of here is that while the Sega Dreamcast was itself a decent system, Sega had already burned a lot of its customers with their numerous "1.5 systems." What I mean by that is, all of the many systems they created as extensions of current systems (Sega CD, 32X, etc..) that they sold as the next big thing, but completely failed on when it came to supporting them. I myself bought the 32X for $130 when it came out, and how many games were made for it? Less than 60. Same with the Saturn, the ultimate 2D system, suddenly found itself floundering when the Playstation focused solely on 3D games and Sega dropped it, and went on with the Dreamcast. After all of those, you could be sure I wasn't about to spend another dime on a Sega system, because how do I know its not another "1.5" system than will have its support cut out from under it in only a few months time.

Who writes these, 12 year olds?

[Inoshiro (71693)]

" This one costed $300."

The past tense of cost is cost. You sound like a retard or an elementary school child when you write it in a "real" article. This is the first line, too! Do they not hire editors at 1up?

Its not the same

[Squarewav (241189)]

What killed the dreamcast wasn't the PS2 directly. What killed it was Segas poor reputation with its past systems. The Sega Saturns 3d support was very poor compared to PS1 and N64,and died off rather quickly. Segas Add-ons for the Genesis, Sega CD, 32X, 32x-CD, Sold moderitly well, but had poor games, and killed of right away when Saturn came out.

So when Sega rushed the dreamcast out to be the first of the new generation systems, people were hesitant about buying another sega product. Some people only used the Saturn as a stop-gap till the PS2 came out. The hype of the PS2 helped kill the dreamcast but it wasn't the only factor.

This time around PS3 is competing with Xbox360. Unlike Saturn the Xbox has proven itself as a strong system, and in many ways better then PS2.

What is this hokey non-sense

[moochfish (822730)]

I'm all for objective comparisons we can all argue over but this one killed it for me.

$600 - The average price for PS2 on ebay in November 2000.

vs.

$600 - The price for the higher end PS3 when it releases in November 2006.

How is that a valid comparison? I wonder if the author is aware that the PS3's are going for up to $5000 on ebay right now. And there's also that gem about PS2's having DVD functionality:

Offered DVD playback at a price cheaper than most existing DVD players. "[PS2] put DVD on the map, pushing hardware prices down and forcing the viability of the format. (Gear Live)

From what I recall, DVD's were already kicking ass when PS2 came out. In fact, many people bought a PS2 because they liked the DVD functionality.

One Major Comparison Left Out

[superdan2k (135614)]

PS2: Released in the middle of a booming economy when a large number of twentysomethings had either more money than god, or at least enough to warrant spending hundreds of dollars on a video game console.

PS3: Released in the middle of a shitty economy when a large number of twentysomethings have less money, more bills, and enough to worry about that a $700 game console isn't in the cards.

Price predictions

[ConfusedSelfHating (1000521)]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xbox [wikipedia.org]

The Xbox was released on November 15, 2001 at a price of $299 and it was reduced in price to $199 on May 15, 2002.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PlayStation_2 [wikipedia.org]

The PS2 was released on October 26, 2000 at a price of $299 and it was reduced in price to $199 on May 14, 2002.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gamecube [wikipedia.org]

The Gamecube was released on November 18, 2001 at a price of $199 and it was reduced in price to $149 on May 13, 2002.

My guess is that in May, the Xbox 360 Core version will be dropped and the premium version will be reduced to $299. The PS3 will be reduced to $399/$499 and the Wii will be reduced to $199. It may come down to one company cutting their price and the others following.

Microsoft earns over $10 billion a year in profit, while Sony and Nintendo make about $1 billion each every year. Microsoft has been making the Xbox 360 for over a year, significantly cutting manufacturing costs.

The one game that has been reviewed on both the PS3 and the Xbox 360 is Tony Hawk Project 8. There are two major problems with the PS3 version: lack of online support and frame rate issues. The frame rate issues are a huge problem for Sony. If someone is paying a premium price, they expect a premium product. If the PS3 version of games is inferior to the Xbox 360 version, I don't see why anyone would want to purchase a PS3. Luckily for Sony, it probably just means that people are having a difficult time developing for the platform.

Ease of development?

[seebs (15766)]

I have not elsewhere seen the PS3 described as "easy" to develop for. More like "very very hard".

I am a big fan of the Cell (I've done some writing about it and played a bit with the sim), but I can't imagine calling it "easy".

Re:Wrong?

[tempestdata (457317)]

I think you're parsing that sentence wrong. Read it as :

"PS3: Releasing one year after the lower priced Xbox 360, [with the Xbox360 being] lauded for its great games, ease of development, and superior online service."

Re:

[Control Group (105494)]

Er...I'm pretty sure Live is an online service, and I'm reasonably certain the 360 has it. At least I hope it does, becaause I'm paying $50/yr for it.

Re:Online service? Don't forget to get the update!

[Control Group (105494)]

Now that's what I call bootstrapping: you'll be able to get online only after you get online to download the patch.

Re:

[grapeape (137008)]

So Sony is ok because they do stupid things once in a while? Last I checked MS didnt ship out rootkits embedded in their media, nor did their computer peripherals explode. Evil is all in perspective and frankly neither one is real insterested in your personal well being. I would rather buy from a smart company that one that has an equal chance of screwing me on purpose and by accident.

The idea that the bottom of the line Sony is only $100 more than the top of the line MS product is supposed to be a selli