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Nintendo Already Anticipating Holiday Wii Shortages
Posted by
Soulskill
on Mon Oct 27, 2008 10:58 PM
from the demand-and-supply dept.
from the demand-and-supply dept.
As we approach the holiday season, Nintendo has already said that they don't expect to keep up with demand for the Wii console. In an interview with the LA Times, Nintendo president Reggie Fils-Aime said they're ramping up production by 33% already, with further increases planned. They're hoping to avoid the scarcity of Wii's that occurred last year, which cost them a great deal of money in potential sales. "We're now producing 2.4 million units a month worldwide. Last year, we made 1.6 million a month. So we've made a 33% increase. One of our competitors projects they will sell 10 million consoles worldwide this year. For us, that's three months of production. We're producing an unprecedented level of hardware to try to meet demand."
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[+]
Why You Can't Find a Wii for Christmas 450 comments
Nintendo is making Wii consoles at a record pace, some 1.8 million a month. Last week they sold 350,000 units. Yes, just last week. And yet, still, it's going to be almost impossible to find a Wii in a store this Christmas. Wired reports that the problem actually began back in August. Summer being the traditional 'dry' season in gaming usually leads to hardware surpluses, but not with Nintendo's console. The result is a holiday season that Nintendo essentially couldn't prepare for. "Demand for Wii is so high, says analyst Michael Pachter, because of all the different types of consumers competing for the units ... it's not just kids who crave Wii. [It's] an especially big hit at retirement homes ... Hard-core gamers, who initially spurned the Wii's lower graphic power compared to the Xbox and PlayStation 3, have changed their tune on the console, thanks to brilliant software like the first-person shooter Metroid Prime 3. And eBay scalpers? They really want Wii." In fact, the only reliable way to get your hands on a Wii is to go that most dubious of routes. Ebay Wii sales are very brisk indeed this week.
[+]
Wii Shortages Costing Nintendo 'A Billion' In Sales 290 comments
A New York Times article from this past Friday highlights the 'problem' that Nintendo is facing: more people want to give them money than they can handle. Analysts quoted in the story discussing Nintendo's unique Wii shortage problem indicate that the company could be selling twice the 1.8 million consoles a month it ships. All told, these same individuals believe the company could be leaving as much as $1 billion on the table this holiday season. "'We don't feel like we've made any mistakes,' said George Harrison, senior vice president for marketing at Nintendo of America. He said there was a shortage because the company must plan its production schedule five months ahead, and projecting future demand is difficult. He added that there had been a worldwide shortage of disk drives that had hurt Nintendo as well as makers of many other devices. 'It's a good problem to have,' Mr. Harrison said of the demand, but he acknowledged that there could be a downside. 'We do worry about not satisfying consumers and that they will drift to a competitor's system.'"
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In other news... (Score:4, Insightful)
...water is wet, the sky is blue, and Macs and PCs use the same hardware. i.e. There is nothing surprising here. The demand for the Wii has been mercilessly out of whack with what is possible (or at least practical) to manufacture, since day one. I know a lot of people thought the shortage was over when Wiis temporarily became available during the summer. (Note that I said "available", not "abundant".) The problem is that console sales always cycle during the summer. The best sales are obviously around Christmas, both before and after. (After for all the folks who couldn't get one during the Christmas season.) Being at the opposite end of the year, summer is obviously going to be the low-point for sales. Consumers are spending their money on vacations and outdoor fun rather than game consoles.
What I find far more interesting is the extreme vitriol [computeran...ogames.com] expressed by those who commented on the ComputerAndVideoGames.com story. It seems the more successful the Wii becomes, the more the hardcore gamers hate it for its success.
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I used to live in WA state and was able to get a Wii after just a few weekends of calling retailers. However, I moved to MN state recently and you can't get a Wii here.
I asked the electronics dude at target and he said they get a couple units a week and they all sell out the same day they arrive. I really don't understand why they can't ramp up production even more. At this point, scarcity isn't doing them any favors so there is no reason to limit supply. They should simply make as many units as possible an
Re:In other news... (Score:5, Interesting)
I don't think you understand how many Wiis Nintendo is producing. Let me draw a comparison for you.
In the eight years that the PS2 has been available, it has sold about 140 million units. That's a lot by game console standards. In fact, it's a lot by the standards of pretty much any electronic device ever mass marketed. The PS2 is the most popular console in the history of video games.
To reach that lofty level of 140 million in 8 years, it would have taken a manufacturing capacity of ~1.5 million units per month. Nintendo is producing 2.4 million units per month. If Nintendo maintains that rate, they will produce 115.2 million consoles in the next 4 years. That's in addition to the 30 million consoles already on the market. That right there is over 145 million consoles in 6 years.
I will reiterate that the assumption is that production stays steady. However, Nintendo has already promised additional increases in production! Unless there is a massive and sudden drop-off in demand, Nintendo will not only be exceeding the record set by the PS2, they will shatter it to pieces.
I hope that clarifies the situation.
Parent
Re: (Score:3, Funny)
Nintendo will not only be exceeding the record set by the PS2, they will shatter it to pieces.
Several reasons have been proposed for this:
Re:In other news... (Score:5, Funny)
Parent
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That is odd.
I know vgchartz isn't the most accurate site, but according to this [vgchartz.com], the Wii is about a year ahead of the PS2.
Re:In other news... (Score:5, Insightful)
Parent
Re:In other news... (Score:4, Informative)
Regarding good games, you skipped over Super Mario Galaxy, but you have a decent point regarding the games - I want more non crappy games. Yes, I'm somewhat contradicting my first paragraph here, but there have been several good games for the console, enough to get me to buy it and enough to prove the point that the new controller is fun. Now, it just needs more of them.
Parent
Re:In other news... (Score:5, Informative)
(sigh)
Here we go again... slashdotters that appear to have no clue with math and/or real-world economics. I'll try to make this brief...
1) Using your numbers, the ps2 has been in production ~ 100 months now, for an avg. of 1 million/month. The SNES sold 50 million over over5 years, averaging ~ 1 million/per month. Wii production WAS 1.6 million/month last year, and is NOW at 2.4 million/month. Wii production started around 1 million/month and has only been increasing, thus Nintendo is already putting units out at an unprecedented rate compared to any system current or past.
2) Factories and production capability don't just appear out of thin air. They take time and money to build. A built factory with no demand is a bad investment, and Nintendo rarely makes bad investments. Building more manufacturing lines just for the holiday rush is bad business. Good business is to stockpile over the summer.
3) When people buy a product as fast as it is produced you can't build up a stockpile for holiday sales. Thus, more shortages when demand spikes. THERE IS NO DELIBERATE SHORTAGE. JUST STRONG SALES AND PREDICTABLE ECONOMICS.
Sorry for the yelling, but its a bit annoying that every Wii story that pops up is filled with people claiming conspiracy. When the demand is high and production is down, then you might have a point.
Parent
Re: (Score:3, Interesting)
For the record, it looks like [seekingalpha.com] the PS2s best selling year was when it sold about 22 million units in 2003. In 2004 it sold about 20 million. Notice that the console came out in 2000 and 2003 was it's third year out. The Nintendo Wii looks like it'll sell 20-24 million a year beginning with its second year. I think it could sell 100 million over five years thanks to the prohibitively high cost of the PS3 and the 360 providing enough competition this generation in the EU and US against the PS3 to keep one from
Re:In other news... (Score:5, Insightful)
Expanding manufacturing lines costs money and depending on the unit price and the expected sales volume that may not be profitable. Since the Wii was "available" during the year that suggests the non-christmas demand is about equal to the manufacturing capacity being used, increasing capacity for christmas only and having superfluous capacities afterwards can be pretty unprofitable.
I'll do the same thing I did last-gen. I'll buy whichever is the most-popular console when it hits $199. And I'll buy the Nintendo Wii if it's either $100 flat or $150 with a free game.
That's a contradiction, the Wii is the most popular console. The DS hasn't seen a price drop since release (maybe the old DS back when it was obsoleted by the DS lite), all signs point towards Nintendo using the same strategy for the Wii.
Parent
So has Nintendo won the console war? (Score:4, Funny)
Is it official yet, or do the other contenders still have a shot at avoiding humiliation?
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Yes, no.
Everything went as expected, but atm Xbox360 in it's simplest form sells at a much lower price than the Wii so at the current prices I don't really know if the winner would had been so obvious.
Even though I wished Nintendo all well and they have new controllers one can't deny the 360 has benefits over Wii as well.
The PS3? Even better but cost twice as much as the cheapest 360 which is a factor. Also as long as it don't have a lot of games only for PS3 obviously less people will be interested.
Re:So has Nintendo won the console war? (Score:5, Insightful)
Parent
Who doesn't have a wii at this point? (Score:3, Interesting)
What, are they EATING wiis? They've been selling out for over a year now, by my calculations that's 3 wiis per everyone.
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Three Wiis? With twelve, I could set up a Beowulf Cluster and run Linux to calculate Pi to the 50 billionth decimal place!
Re:Who doesn't have a wii at this point? (Score:5, Funny)
Parent
Re:Who doesn't have a wii at this point? (Score:5, Informative)
Wiiagra? :D
Parent
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Children's toys get broken easily. There's probably a higher casualty rate for Wii's than for the systems made for mature people.
Hey, that's a bit far even for trolling. In fact, let's give a hand to nintendo for consistently making the most bullet proof consoles. Millions of years from now, after the nuclear apocalypse, alien scientists will come to earth and find nothing but slightly radioactive, still completely functional game boy advances.
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No news that Nintendo consoles live long and that the service is excellent. That many people have replaced their PS2 multiple times due to messed up laser, and the same for many people with their ring of death 360s as you mention.
Though I guess if one want to be evil one could say that's only because Nintendo update their (portable) consoles so you just "have" to buy the new version before the old one bites the dust so they get more sales that way instead :D
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Immaturity is when you seek out the things you were forbidden from as a child.
Maturity is when you're not afraid of what other people think. Especially when you base your choice of entertainment on such unpopular concepts as "fun", "uplifting", "social", and "family friendly".
They're actually making 50% more (Score:4, Informative)
1.5*1,600,000 = 2,400,000
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So I guess, the difference between the new number and old number is 33% of the new number is what they are saying, which is a pretty stupid and non-intuitive way to compare numbers. Most people, as above, would see 16 + 50% * 16 = 24 as a 50% increase.
Clone Machine (Score:2)
2.4 million units a month worldwide
Short of building a cloning machine, what more can Nintendo really do? 2.4 computers a months seems like no small amount to me, especially considering that Nintendo often has good quality.
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Ompa-Lompa-Dibidi-Doo
I am a wii owner so spare me condemnation.. but.. (Score:5, Interesting)
I've not checked many review sites so if I'm bringing up a biased, poor review site by all means, reject what I'm saying:
2 years in and according to Gamespot [gamespot.com] only 8 games have made a score over 8.5 - 12 if you count 8.5
This is woeful. You go to the Wii section in any store and the shelves are stocked with what I deem "exploitware". That is, poorly designed games attempting to sucker the Wii mass market into buying games based on advertised novel mechanics (that rarely work).
A year ago, you could forgive this type of situation on the industry having not caught up with the prolific popularity of the console. Now, I find myself losing faith in the Wii. With all the Mario lineup accounted for and Smash Bros done, a "not completely awesome" Metroid. What do we have to look forward to?
Url may or may not work for you (localised) http://au.gamespot.com/reviews.html?type=reviews&platform=1031&mode=all&sort=score&dlx_type=all&sortdir=asc&official=all [gamespot.com]
Re:I am a wii owner so spare me condemnation.. but (Score:5, Insightful)
One comment I'd like to make is that Gamespot is useless. They have no journalistic integrity, and their reviews are awful to boot. Check IGN or MetaCritic instead.
I do not disagree with this statement. However, I would caution you to think carefully about the PS2 before you derive too much from it. How much PS2 software was AAA stuff? How much of it was excellent stuff that didn't get the attention it deserved? How much of it was pure, unbridled crap? (Even worse, do you know how much of the last category has been ported to the Wii to "cash in"?)
The biggest issue with the Wii is that some of the best games fall into the category of "don't get enough attention". Gamers pay attention to Monkey Ball Wii when Mercury Meltdown Revolution is the superior title. Zach and Wiki bring back the point and click adventure genre, but no one can be bothered to buy it. Geometry Wars Galaxies is several dozen shmups in one, but hardcore gamers ignore it. Pinball Hall of Fame: Williams Collection is the most amazing pinball simulation EVER, but it goes directly to the bargain bin. Boom Blox... well... Boom Blox is just overpriced IMHO.
And then there's WiiWare. Awesome, great, terrific, incredible games like Defend Your Castle, Toki Tori, Strong Bad, World of Goo, Wild West Guns (if you like light-gun games), Mega Man 9, Bomberman Blast, and LostWinds, yet most of the Wii owners I see don't even bother to hook up their Wii's Wifi.
I don't know if this is a failure to market on Nintendo's part or what. Obviously Nintendo's stuff sells well enough, so one has to wonder what gives. In part, I have seen publishers take a defeatist attitude toward the Wii. (e.g. The only reason why anyone heard of Zach and Wiki was because IGN tried to jump-start a grass roots movement. Capcom spent diddly squat on advertising and promotion.) Which, unsurprisingly, becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Still, you'd think that publishers would want to nail their support for this machine while the iron is hot.
I honestly don't think they "get" it. Until they do, a Wii owner has to be a discerning owner. Because that's the only way you're going to find the good games. And there are PLENTY. From Excite Truck to Wario Shake It, the games are there. They're just not getting much attention.
Parent
Let's use Metacritic (Score:3, Informative)
Ok, let's use Metacritic...
Wii
First available: November 19, 2006
Scores 80 and above: 36 games
Scores 85 and above: 13 games
Source: http://www.metacritic.com/games/wii/scores/ [metacritic.com]
Xbox 360
First available: November 22, 2005
Scores 80 and above: 122 games
Scores 85 and above: 47 games
Source: http://www.metacritic.com/games/xbox360/scores/ [metacritic.com]
PS3
First available: November 11, 2006
Scores 80 and above: 79 games
Scores 85 and above: 34 games
Source: http://www.metacritic.com/games/ps3/scores/ [metacritic.com]
PS2
First available: October-November,
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In the case of WiiWare, I was thinking about promoting the online capabilities of the console rather than the individual titles themselves. At least then users might hook up their consoles and Nintendo could realize better royalties across ALL WiiWare titles. Beyond that, I think that sites like WiiWare World [wiiware-world.com] already do an excellent job promoting the titles themselves.
Re:I am a wii owner so spare me condemnation.. but (Score:2)
Sadly enough most people are probably not to bothered with that since they end up buying all the same games anyway. (Mario galaxy, Zelda, maybe smash bros as you mention, metroid, mario kart, whatever more.)
Over here in Sweden the only games advertised for the DS is still Nintendogs and New super mario bros (and earlier mario kart). Sure there is a lot of games for the DS, sure there are better titles than those, sure there are newer titles than those, sure there are more interesting and fresh titles than t
Re:I am a wii owner so spare me condemnation.. but (Score:5, Informative)
Now, I find myself losing faith in the Wii. With all the Mario lineup accounted for and Smash Bros done, a "not completely awesome" Metroid. What do we have to look forward to?
One thing I am looking forward to is the MotionPlus wiimote attachment. You know those lightsaber games we where promised? All the great game ideas that turned out lackluster because the wiimote's motion detection isn't that great? This will make all that possible. The MotionPlus gives 6 degrees of freedom, registering motion and rotation.
Parent
Re: (Score:2)
The motion detection is the much smaller problem. One-to-one motion simply isn't possible because there's nothing to stop you from swinging when your sword hits your opponent's.
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Re:I am a wii owner so spare me condemnation.. but (Score:4, Insightful)
Remember how long it took the PS2 to build up a solid library of titles?
Sure, there were dozens of titles at launch, but it took ages for it to build up its now-formidable library, while Microsoft rested on its laurels with Halo.
Parent
At the risk of getting beaten up.... (Score:2)
I walked into a store a few weeks ago and bought one.
Ok, yeah. I was shocked as hell that they actually had them in stock.
what?! (Score:2, Insightful)
Seriously? People are still into this fad system?
Don't get me wrong, there were few people who were stronger supporters of the Wii when it was first coming out with it's new motion control setup. Unfortunately, it seems like all that developers have been able to do with it is create a bunch of crappy mini games where the only point seems to be to flail ones limbs around. The only thing the system does well is shooters (given that every other system has given up on the light gun) while they have been unable
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Super Paper Mario was supposed to come for Gamecube, evil Nintendo releasing it for Wii only. I want my super paper mario damnit! ;/
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fad: n, A phenomenon that becomes popular for a very short time.
Average Span between nintendo consoles: ~5 years
So I ask you this: when a system is still scarce for half of its shelf-life, can we please stop calling it a fad?
Re:what?! (Score:5, Insightful)
Unfortunately, it seems like all that developers have been able to do with the PS3 is create a bunch of crappy first person shooters where the only point seems to be to fire guns in random directions and hope you hit something.
I don't know how up to date you've been keeping with the Wii, but the age of mini-games is over. Save for Rayman Raving Rabbids 3, I can't think of a single title in recent memory that's based on mini-games. If any exist, it is probably a shovelware title that you should avoid. Spend your money on Boom Blox, Wario Shake It, Zack and Wiki, or one of the many excellent WiiWare titles instead.
Parent
Re:what?! (Score:5, Insightful)
To a lot of people complaining, those games you list *are* mini-games. As in, not beefy games - the blockbuster ones that really drive things. In this context, the definition of mini-game has changed, and has glommed together with portions of "casual game," "low budget game, "shallow game" and "simple game."
Parent
Re: (Score:3, Insightful)
The Wii has changed the definition of what makes a good game. Nintendo proved that there was a huge market waiting for games that are relatively easy to produce, fun to play, and very profitable (and unfortunately, a lot of business players have forgotten how to make and sell those).
Metal Gear Solid 4 and Metroid Prime 3 are great. Those kinds of games aren't going anywhere. But myself, and a lot of other people, are glad that games based on fun gameplay concepts have a home again.
I love Heavenly Sword,
Re:what?! (Score:4, Insightful)
Parent
this basically describes (Score:3, Insightful)
i dont want to be treated like cattle for something like this. in my opinion nintendo's first venture at this bordered on blackmarket extortion.
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In an interview with the LA Times, Nintendo president Reggie Fils-Aime said they're ramping up production by 33% already, with further increases planned
Reggie Fils-Aime said they're ramping up production by 33% already, with further increases planned
they're ramping up production by 33% already, with further increases planned
33% already, with further increases planned
further increases planned
Re:Must be ramping down production (Score:5, Funny)
Parent
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Why do you say that? They're still in demand and hard to find.
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Re:It's Christmas (Score:4, Interesting)
Parent