Sony Denies PS3 Delay

Eurogamer reports that Sony is flatly denying the delay of the PlayStation 3. From the article: "Sakaguchi was responding to allegations made by Merrill Lynch analyst Joe Osha in a report published late last week, in which Osha claimed that the PS3 could launch in autumn in Japan, with a US launch possibly being delayed to early 2007. 'There is no change in our original plan to release the console in spring 2006," Sakaguchi told the press in Tokyo, referring to the company's only stated goal for the launch so far - namely that the console will appear in at least one territory, most likely Japan, this spring.' They have lots of opportunities at GDC and E3 to change the public perception that their next console is still very much a work in progress.

Pretty much expected

They've been running around yelling "Spring" for months now. Why not expect them to say it again?

Re:Pretty much expected

That being said, it seems like a very short time to announce the features of the system, game lineup and to get everything ready and shipped.

Done, partly done, and all that's left in your mind I guess.

Yep. I don't really know where people are getting this "work in progress" thing. The system is not out yet, it's not in production yet, so why does everyone expect there to be playable units running final game copy on them floating around every time there's a press conference or convention anywhere? You'll get playable units once production has started.

The only thing that's left "in progress" - and Sony has made no bones about saying straight out that this is all that's holding the system up - is AACS for Blu-Ray movies. Yes, that horrible, evil DRM scheme again. That's it. They are waiting on the final spec before they can begin building machines, and that's expected to come within the next two weeks. Could it be delayed further? Sure, and Sony's gonna be screwed if it is. But it's not as if they don't know what hardware's going to be in this machine or what games are gonna be on it. They've got the machine designed, their hardware and software partners lined up, and their factories primed and ready. I'm sure they've got ants-in-the-pants right now just waiting to hit that "go" button.

All they are waiting for is AACS.

So I see no problem with them making a spring launch in Japan. Japanese launches, remember, rarely have more than 5-10 games associated with them, and Sony could put the hype machine in full gear as soon as they can announce a firm launch date. They could even make the end of April (Golden Week in Japan; the biggest holiday/vacation week in the country) if the AACS spec is finalized shortly, and I have no doubt that's their goal, as it always is for "spring" console launches there. Once a date is announced, you will see wall to wall TV commercials, subway ads, billboards, and every other form of marketing you can imagine in Japan - literally overnight. It's a small country with a lot of people in it; the speed at which a large and prepared company like Sony can swing into action would make your head spin. And it's not as if there hasn't been hype already; all of the game magazines and even mainstream news outlets have been covering the PS3, so consumers there are expecting it.

We'll see what happens with the managed-copy spec. But if it's finalized soon, Sony's launch expectations sound pretty realistic to me.

Delay?

If it means having a better system with fewer bugs and more launch titles, I can't see how a delay would be bad from an end-user perspective. I realize that any delay will harm them as a corporation, and possibly drive up the system price, but these are relatively minor concerns. Then again, most manufacturers already sell the system itself at a loss.

The only thing Sony really needs to worry about time-wise is beating the Revolution out of the gates. Given that details on the Nintendo system are still sketchy at best, this probably isn't a concern either.

Re:Delay?

Agreed. I hate how people always rag on Duke Nukem Forever just because its been delayed a bit! As long as it has few bugs when released whats the big deal?

Re:Delay?

By the time DNF comes out, it should be so well tested that it fixes bugs in other programs in the vicinity.

Re:Delay?

I realize that any delay will harm them as a corporation, and possibly drive up the system price, but these are relatively minor concerns.

Think again. The longer the delay, the more time the XBox 360 will have on the shelves as the lone next-gen console ("Now $249/$349!") and the less time they'll have until the Revolution launches ("Eh, I'll wait."). Remember that consoles sales will be reflected in game deals and the adoption of Blue-Ray. It's critical that they have a strong launch, and that means releasing in a fairly narrow window.

Re:Delay?

I'll wait as long as it takes if they just put out a killer system. Last time I checked PS2's were still outselling XBox 360's so it seems to hardly matter to Sony and they could, if needed, slash the PS2 prices to keep 360 sales low.

id, If I remember, has a motto of "When it's finished." or something like that. I think Sony should follow it. Don't let M$ trick them into releasing anything less than perfect. Let M$ be the one dealing with their consoles crashing and the power supplies catching fire.

Not surprising

That report seemed kind of hard to believe. I mean, if they delayed it till 2007 and then priced it ridiculously high, that would give M$ a significant opportunity to cut into their marketshare. I didn't figure Sony to be that stupid.

Japan = Beta ... US = 2007

Sakaguchi told the press in Tokyo, referring to the company's only stated goal for the launch so far - namely that the console will appear in at least one territory, most likely Japan, this spring.'

So in other words... Japan is lucky enough to get to pay to be in Sony's beta test and the US is, indeed, not going to get the thing until 2007?

Here's hoping

A Spring launch of the PS3, even if it's in a completely different market, would be good news for those of us considering the X-Box 360, but have been waiting to see how Sony's new console stacks up against it.

I'm especially interested in what the next console iteration of GTA looks like. Here's hoping Rockstar does away with pedalling little bikes through the "hood", and "playing" weight training simulators, and gets back to making games that are actually... you know... fun.

When the denial is late-- not a good sign..

Wow, only like 4 days to respond... They must have Dick Cheney's public relations team or something...

Too much cutting edge stuff

BluRay, Cell, ... it's going to add up.

Ideally the best time to launch a next generation console is when the media format is established. DVD was established when the PS2 came out and popularised it.

I feel the PS3 is trying to establish the format itself, but that means the format is brand new at console launch, expensive, with first generation issues, speed, etc.

Cell too is very ambitious. In the long term I think it will be a good decision though.

In the end the PS3 will be marginally better than the XBox360, and is that worth being a year later? In addition, the PS3 looks fugly in its mockups, whereas the 360 appears to be quite nice.

ObRevolution: And let's not forget about Nintendo's new console either, that could beat them both on price and gameplay features.

Re:Too much cutting edge stuff

In the end the PS3 will be marginally better than the XBox360, and is that worth being a year later?

Here are the games I missed out because I didn't get the Xbox:
Halo, Ninja Gaiden, various PC ports

Here are the games that I would have missed out on if I got the Xbox instead:
Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, Metal Gear Solid, Gran Turismo, Devil May Cry, God of War, Virtua Fighter, Soul Calibur 3, Shadow of the Colossus, etc, etc.

I get my FPS fix on the PC with keyboard and mouse, so really, the question comes down to: Is Ninja Gaiden really worth all the other games that I don't get on the Xbox? ~50% of the console market didn't think it was worth it, while ~25% -- likely people without a PC -- thought it was.

It is going to be tough.

I would like to see Sony launch the console in the spring, but with Blue-Ray not being finalized. It will be the big hold up. It is going to be tough, but might just do it.

I hope Sony knows what they're doing

Many people have cast doubt on Sony's ship date, and Sony's been standing firm on Spring 2006 (mostly). If you think all the game industry layoffs are bad now, wait until Sony slips because, if they do, you ain't seen nothing yet. Thank goodness handheld gaming is going so strong or things would be even worse.

One thing nobody is asking Sony is where they will ship in Spring. Might be Japan only. Even so, with the tepid response to the 360 in North America (made worse by the shortages), and the complete rejection of the 360 in Japan, Sony stands to make a killing... if they can do this right.

State of development systems?

Are there not some developers who can say how (in)complete the development systems are? If people don't have dev kits, there won't be games, so who cares when the console launches.

The PS3, while potentially more powerful than the 360, seems almost certain to require substantially more effort to extract that power -- making a good dev environment even more critical.

Spring = June

Sound about right, launch in mid June in Japan and then be ready to launch in November in the U.S. Launching a console in the first quarter of a calendar year in the U.S. just sounds like suicide to me.

Conflicting Statements?

In this article [bbc.co.uk], a "spokesman for Sony Computer Entertainment" says that the launch could be pushed back if industry specifications on some of the PS3 were not decided soon...

Screw the delay

Screw the delay, what about the price? Are they denying the damn thing is going to cost 900 bucks? If they are not they might as well delay the thing to judgement day. I don't know anyone that is going to reach up their ass and pull out 900 bucks for a video game.

For that kind of scratch I could buy a xbox360, a few games, and still have enough left over for a night with a couple of high priced call girls.

Re:Screw the delay

The $900 figure was an analysts estimate of the build cost.

Others have already pointed out flaws in the analyst's figures, for example Sony won't pay licensing fees on Bluray, and Bluray drives will probably costs less than the analyst predicts + will fall in price rapidly.

The main point, however, is that this in no way pointed to the purchase price. Sony will have to compete in the sub $500 market and they know it. Sony will take a hit on hardware knowing they have revenue streams from games, accessories and imjportantly downloads (music, movies and games).

As the build price decreases Sony will eventually break even and at some point in the future, draw a profit on hardware too.

At no point will consumers pay $900 for a PS3 (unless they buy it on eBay the day after launch)

Re:Screw the delay

Here's something I've been wondering about: At CES, all the talk about Blu-Ray referred to a price point of around $1,000 at launch for standalone players. If Sony releases the PS3 for less than $500 and it includes fully functioning Blu-Ray movie playback, wouldn't that really piss off their hardware partners? In fact, if the above is true (and I honestly don't have the slightest idea), I wouldn't be surprised if Blu-Ray manufacturers abandoned the format and went for HD-DVD instead (with units projected to launch at $500). That could really put in a crimp in the assumptions that Blu-Ray will a) be the dominant high-definition disc format and b) make Sony a ton of money to make up for whatever losses they take on PS3 hardware.

Re:Screw the delay

They won't come out and deny that type of overpriced estimate. It worked great for the PSP, which was going to cost you at least $500. When the PSP came out, it was a steal at $250 (thanks to slowly getting your mind used to some ridiculously higher price). You even got a free rag.

We can trust Sony when it comes to rumors (notrly)

This is just like how they denied claims their rootkit was harmful. http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=27416 [theinquirer.net]

Launch titles

"if it means more launch titles"

If the hardware was finished, why the hell would you wait for launch titles? Isn't it better to have the system now with the games available and buy them as they are released? This way you have more time to play the best games.

I've never understood why someone would want to wait 6 more months to have 6 more games to play, when they could have been playing the first 10 already.

Why do people listen to "Analysts"?

Why do people actually listen to market analysts?

For the most part, the ones that actually get any mention in the media are the ones that make the most outrageous and (typically) false claims. At this point in time the PS3 may be delayed but it would likely be a short delay of a couple of months (possibly a november launch rather than a september launch) and may cost more than people would expect ($450 rather than $350-$400) but there is no way that it is going to be delayed into 2007 and cost $900.

The truth is that most analysts have worse connections to people "in the know" than many slashdotters and have less understanding of the market than most slashdotters, so why do we even read articles that mention them; I'm certain that many people are in the same boat as me, and know people who work for large developers like EA and UBI soft, and have heard small bits of information which discredit all of these analysts estimates.

It is depressing that companies have to produce press conferences in order to deal with these wild claims.

Spring? Absolutely not.

Is Sony's definition of Spring 2006 different than mine?

It's late February NOW. "Spring" probably means sometime between now and the end of June.

That's 19 weeks. So, sometime in the next 19 weeks, we would expect to see:

1. A complete list of launch titles.
2. Most, if not all launch titles not just in final version but manufactured and shipped.
3. Retailers to have full, detailed pricing information. Best Buy needs WEEKS of advance notice to print those Sunday Newspaper flyers.
4. Retailers to have PS3 sales spaces and media ready to go.
5. Complete PS3 specs and instruction manuals beyond some flack saying "uh, blue ray".
6. Teaser advertising beyond some Sony flack saying "any day now".
7. A full marketing and advertising press, including print, television, and web advertising. This needs to happen MONTHS before launch so that people will know this important product is coming soon.
8. Accessories not just announced but manufactured and shipped to retailers.
9. Preorders offered at major game retailers.

Any of this happening yet? Anyone think you'll be buying one of these in 8 weeks? 8 weeks from now is late April. Most people won't get the XBox 360s they ordered in DECEMBER until then.

Subversion

Sony will keep leading on consumers with the PS3 like a carrot dangled in front of an ass. The only reason they keep insisting that the PS3 will be released in Spring is to prevent people from buying a 360.

The pulled the same shenanigans with the PS2, effectively killing the Dreamcast. They are trying it again.

Don't be a tool. Don't listen to Sony.

Re:Subversion

"Don't listen to a corporation that is not truthful, manipulates the marketplace, and uses unfair competitive practices. Instead, buy from Microsoft!"

PS3

"Any of this happening yet?"

Of course not. Sony has said 2 things recently in press released:
1) They will launch in Japan first and
2) They will not sell the console "at a loss."

This will push back a US release date till at LEAST late 3rd quarter, and push the release price most likely at about double the price of a $300 Xbox360.

Sony *needs* to pony up and strip out the Blu-Ray drive. They are trying to push their own media technology and its costing the average gamer hundreds of dollars. A 10gig dual layer DVD is enough for any game in this generation since Sony is not doing 1080p.

IANAResidentOfJapan, but there's no way.

The fact that we're all still speculating over the price point of the console should immediately be three strikes against the possibility of a spring release anywhere. I haven't even seen a price in Yen anywhere to even extrapolate a U.S. price from.

No media buzz, no word of production, no finalized list of system specs... no console anytime soon.

PS3 will be so revolutionary..

Playstation 3 will change the very definition of "spring". The rebirth of each year's springtime will become a shallow metaphore for the huge sweeping cultural and artistic changes which PS3 will bring to humanity as a whole.

Depends on how you define "delay"

From the summary:

Sony is flatly denying the delay

Then, quoting the article:

the company's only stated goal for the launch so far - namely that the console will appear in at least one territory, most likely Japan, this spring

Hmm... the PDF I read from Merrill Lynch's Joe Osha does NOT say Sony won't launch the PS3 in 2006. In fact it doesn't say when they will launch anything anywhere. He only speculates (and he is quite clear of this by using terms like "if" and "might" throughout the document) about how a possible delay might affect the industry, and how such a delay could both help and hinder Sony. Furthermore, his comments about a possible delay refer specifically to North America and Europe, which actually falls neatly in line with Sony's half-assed denial of a delay.

Funny how they can "flatly deny" his "allegations", and at the same time say nothing at all that clearly contradicts his speculative statements.

Hmmm...

Of course they're denying the delay...

Of course they're denying the delay. Sony, if you'll remember, lies. They'll do anything to blunt momentum of the 360. If they keep people thinking that the PS3 is just around the corner, they'll hold out just a little longer. And as long as they don't release specs, people can fantasize.

They are NOT shipping in Spring. No way. Not happening. Blu-Ray isn't even finished yet. There's no specs, no launch titles, nothing but empty shells and promises. They need time to work out their manufacturing process and build up stock for the retailers, and you can't exactly go into full-scale production when you don't even have finalized hardware.

They could take a page from the NVidia and ATI playbooks and paper-launch it, I suppose, but that would be the worst of all possible outcomes.... people will finally be able to make an intelligent choice whether the 360 or the PS3 is better, and by then, the 360 is likely to actually be available.

If Microsoft can execute and get some really good, next-gen games out, they could build up some momentum. The games that are out now are, to my perception, competent but not very exciting. They have good graphics, but there's not much new, gameplay-wise. Kameo has some good moments, but it's too short, and Perfect Dark feels very unpolished and unfinished. Project Gotham Racing is probably the best game so far, and it's just not that much different from the old games... the graphics are great, sure, but that's about all there is to it. (I've heard CoD2 is very good on the 360, but I already have it on the PC and it seemed dumb to buy it again.)

The Fight Night demo looks promising, I love how there's no on-screen gauges, just two fighters in a ring. And Oblivion may be truly next-gen content... we'll have to see.

So far, the best game I've played on the 360 is the $5 Geometry Wars. A $400 console to play a $5 game... and it's the best game on the system. Nintendo may be on to something.....

Oh, and to the AC who called me a 'good liddle fanboy' for saying that Sony wouldn't ship in Spring the last time we had this conversation.... here's a big middle finger just for you.

Playstation 3 Questions

So, which fanboys / experts / developers want to tackle the following discouraging issues that I have with the Sony Playstation 3? (And, no, I'm not a plant for Microsoft -- just trying to make sense of the whole Next Gen console thing.)

Drive Speed

A Blu-ray 1x drive transfer rate is 4.5 megabytes per second. A DVD 12x drive transfer rate is about 12 - 16 megabytes per second. Sony will have to release at least a 3x drive to compete with DVD 12x speeds. Will they? Or will they release a 2x drive and have a drive that is significantly slower than the XBOX 360? (The Blu-ray specification has indicated that a 1x blu-ray drive is too slow for HD video, so I'm assuming that this isn't an option...)

HDTV 1080p

A screen at 720p has (720 x 1280 =) 921, 600 pixels.
A screen at 1080p has (1080 x 1920 =) 2,073,600 pixels.

That is, 1080p requires 2.25x the general bandwidth of 720p. Does the Playstation 3 really have 2.25 the general bandwidth of an XBOX 360? Is anyone going to develop games for 1080p at the cost of 2.25 x "other things"?

Anti-Aliasing

XBOX 360 gets AA practically for free thanks to 10 MB embedded DRAM. Apparently, the Playstation 3 must do this in software with a performance hit. Does it matter?

Unified Memory

The Playstation 3 has 256 MB system RAM and 256 MB video RAM. The XBOX 360 has 512 MB unified memory. This means that a developer could use 128 MB system RAM and 384 MB of video RAM, which is 50% more video RAM than a Playstation 3 for holding textures, etc. Isn't that fairly substantial? Won't that allow for the possibility of better looking / higher detail games on the XBOX 360 if the system RAM isn't needed?

Christmas

I'd be very surprised if Sony didn't have the PS3 out in the US in time for Christmas, even if it means rushing the product. Giving Microsoft a year head start is one thing. Giving them *two* Christmas seasons, the second presumably with their supply problem fixed, is too dangerous.

Press conference to be seen in October

Sony Spokesman: There is no truth to the rumors that the PS3 didn't ship in the spring when we said it would. Look behind me here!

Camera moves to stacks and stacks of boxes. Plain cardboard boxes, and someone has scrawled "Playstation 3" on each one with a magic marker.

Sony Spokesperson: See? There's lots of PS3's, so many we have to keep some of them here in the pressroom. If your local store doesn't have any, that's because they sold out already. And just because none of your friends have one doesn't mean anything, it's a big world. Do you know everyone in New York? No, I didn't think so. Just keep going to the store and looking, you will be lucky some day.

nVidia says no PS3 production until at least May

Well, they wouldn't comment directly on the PS3 schedule, but they did say [realmmedia.com] that they won't receive any royalties from Sony this fiscal quarter, until the end of April at least.

That leaves Sony at most two months, May and June, to get the PS3 into production & still release it in "spring". Assuming there are no (further) unforseen delays. How many do they hope to have on shelves? Where are they going to release it, Mauritius?

I dunno, maybe Sony are trying to fool people into thinking they're going to be late so they can suprise us all, but how will that do anything except drive more people to Xbox 360 in the meantime? It's as silly as claiming MS deliberately restricted supply of the 360 - it'll only cost them sales.

SONY has a weird definition of Spring...

Perhaps if SONY were an Australian company the claim that the PS3 would be available in Spring would be easier to swallow. However, by the traditional definition of Spring in the northern hemisphere, SONY has a little over three months to finalize the system specs, establish a price point, advertise and compile a list of launch titles. To SONY's credit, however, advertising is not as cut-throat in Japan as it is in the United States - Japanese consumers tend not to care about fancy / clever advertising and flashy packaging or window displays.

It will still be a miracle as far as I am concerned if the PS3 goes on sale before Summer. Hopefully SONY learned something with the US launch of the PSP, 3 months AFTER Christmas is not the ideal time to launch a new platform, particularly with such an abysmal collection of launch titles (Lumines excluded).

Interestingly, SONY didn't deny the claim that the PS3 would sell for or cost $900 to manufacture. The hardware will certainly cost more to manufacture than previous generation hardware, but I think the Merryl Lynch figure is nothing less than absurd.

Spring is sprung...

The grass has riz. I wonder where the PS3s is?

Sony about to destroy of one the two still profitable arms of it's company with continued lies, false promises and overpricing.

The harm is already done for Sony's image though.

I've seen in various local news broadcasts the news that PS3 is to be delayed. The news have already travelled across the globe. Now the average consumer already knows PS3 is about to be delayed.

*Reads closely*

"There is no change in our original plan to release the console in spring 2006"
So you've just not updated your plan. That is not the same as saying it will ship in Spring. Looks like they've got 4 months to get the hardware design complete, design a case, manufacture enough to launch and ship.
Not going to happen - wonder where I can put money on that..

Re:I understand.

Yay for you.

You understand that the companies function independently of each other, yet you refuse to purchase a product remotely associated with a situation they had no control over.

Your buck, your right - but it doesn't make you look like an intelligent consumer who votes with their dollar. It makes you look like a pathetic loser whose only sense of commercial activism is too jump on a bandwagon with a broken wheel.

I hope you enjoy working for someone else, cause its obvious you can't think for yourself deeply enough to lead.

YAY!

Re:I understand.

I guess you've never worked for a company where management made bad decisions. Get over it man. Sony BMG is a record label with its own CEO and management team. It would 'hurt' the people involved more if you had a more targeted boycott, after all, the good people at all the other parts of Sony were probably more pissed then you were.