Merrill Lynch Predicts $200 Wii 341
Burlap writes "In a story at Forbes, Merrill Lynch predicts that Nintendo will severely undercut the competition with a $200 price point on the Wii." From the article: "An executive from SEGA, one of Nintendo's largest publishers, told Forbes.com on Tuesday that he expects the Wii to sell for less than $200. Post said the Nintendo machine, which features a wireless controller that responds to players' body movements, 'will appeal to a broad demographic of both hard-core and casual gamers.'"
That sure sounds nice, but... (Score:5, Funny)
Re:That sure sounds nice, but... (Score:5, Insightful)
It's kind of a no brainer.
Re:That sure sounds nice, but... (Score:2, Funny)
They're going in a completely different direction than everyone else this time. Who's to say they'll keep the same old price point? (Then again, $200 would be way different from 'everyone else')
I guess what I'm trying to say is that I have no way of forming a coherent argument.
Re:That sure sounds nice, but... (Score:2, Funny)
Re:That sure sounds nice, but... (Score:3, Funny)
Re:That sure sounds nice, but... (Score:2, Funny)
Re:That sure sounds nice, but... (Score:5, Insightful)
price point... (Score:5, Interesting)
Math Question (Score:2)
Re:Math Question (Score:2)
Thanks.
Re:price point... (Score:2)
And how's that insightful? Pure opinion. Interesting I can see but really insightful is stretching the limits.
Re:price point... (Score:2)
Re:Slow Down Cowboy! (waited 1 hour so far to post (Score:5, Insightful)
FTFA:
TRANSLATION: "Lower-cot publishing environment" == "lower licensing fees" + "fewer resources to develop each title"
If they're able to cut the price of a game down to $20-$25 bucks (
... they'll do 5 things:
At $50 - $70 a game, people think twice, 3, 10 times before they buy ... at $20, they'll buy one a week.
Re:Slow Down Cowboy! (waited 1 hour so far to post (Score:3, Insightful)
-Erwos
Re:Slow Down Cowboy! (waited 1 hour so far to post (Score:3, Informative)
They kicked the PSP arse with the DS by using that tactic.
DS games are typically $20.00 to $40.00 new first day release.
PSP games can go upwards of $70.00
It's a no brainer. I own 2 DS's and 2 of every game I wanted. I have spent less than a friend that is a PSP nut and I have more games than he does.
The Wii will be in many, many more homes and will sell more games than the other two combined. Hell they already have more launch titles than the Xbox 360 has available now and the machine is not due for
Fantasy Land (Score:3, Insightful)
Or better yet! Why don't they give out the console for free! And pay you to take the games off retailers shelves!
[/sarcasm]
I'm looking forward to the launch of the Wii too, but let's not get carried away here. Nintendo has to adjust for inflation eventually, so consoles aren't going to launch under $200 anymore. And you fail to take into consideration the fact that the dollar is weak against the yen.
All this s
Re:Fantasy Land (Score:3, Insightful)
Same with computers - the $400 computer today is worlds ahead of the $4000 computer a decade ago.
Same with the components ... ram, chips, optical drives --- all cheaper.
It costs less than a buck to press a dvd nowadays.
As my Leprechan says. (Score:5, Funny)
Re:As my Leprechan says. (Score:2)
I'm only familiar with the Irish type, silly me... Does he ride a haggis [scotsman.com] or what?
m-
Maybe (Score:5, Interesting)
Re:Maybe (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Maybe (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Maybe (Score:2)
Re:Maybe (Score:2)
I already predicted this price point today. (Score:2, Informative)
I already extrapolated exactly this prediction from the data given in a previous article. The evidence I drew this conclusion from was the posted statistics in TFA of the previous note (the article is available here [curmudgeongamer.com] if you don't want to follow too many links).
Congratulations! (Score:3, Funny)
Re:I already predicted this price point today. (Score:2)
Re:I already predicted this price point today. (Score:2)
It's an especially easy conclusion to come to as well, since every Nintendo console ever made has sold for $199.
If you really want to break with the crowd, don't predict $200. That's why I'm predicting $207.41.
Re:I already predicted this price point today. (Score:2)
The Wii, of course will be free and retail for exactly $0.00 including tax.
I deduce this because Shigeru Miyamoto is a mad man. A happy mad man, but still a mad man.
"I wish happy fun time playing with Wii for all, so I make Wii free."
Another Wii (Score:5, Insightful)
We already have Google popping up in every 3rd article, now we have Wii.
Re:Another Wii (Score:2, Informative)
I have been in the options market for a little over a year now, and when the company believes a stock will go up, they set a target price and a time frame and advise me to buy... It's just the way they work.
Re:Another Wii (Score:3, Funny)
Re:Another Wii (Score:2)
Just don't let one bite you, or some night after a full moon, you'll wake up naked in a dumpster clutching a Wavebird.
Re:Another Wii (Score:2)
Yep. They offered me 10:1 that it'd sell at $210, so I took the bet.
We already have Google popping up in every 3rd article, now we have Wii.
I thought we'd gotten over these puerile "Wii" jokes by now. For shame.
Re:Another Wii (Score:2)
HA-HA-HA! This is what you Americans get! You laugh at Wii name, but now Wii will Wii on all bad articles!
This one elaborate marketing campaign from Japan, now you learn how Japan people do business: like tiger, not like you, like a pig, afraid of little Wii.
Seems like I didn't trust them... (Score:3, Informative)
linky [slashdot.org]
Re:Seems like I didn't trust them... (Score:2)
I'm guessing that someone paid them to make both of those statements. Maybe with cash, maybe with considerations.
Anyone could have paid ML to claim that the PS3 would be $900, including sony, who could have decided that they wanted a high estimate so they could tell consumers that it would be less expensive than predicted.
Nintendo has a vested interest in making people believe that their system will be inexpensive, especially if they can do it without actually making any statements themselves, so tha
Paid them, or paid him? (Score:2)
The previous report on a supposed $900 price tag for the PS3 was authored by a number of analysts at Merrill Lynch, including Justin Post. This article makes no mention of a report or any other analysts, it just quotes Justin. Suspicious, no?
Re:Seems like I didn't trust them... (Score:2)
Re:Seems like I didn't trust them... (Score:2, Informative)
Re:Seems like I didn't trust them... (Score:3, Insightful)
(a) That was the estimated cost of the system. Merril Lynch doesn't seem to understand fully that Sony sells their consoles at massive losses at first. (b) That estimate was based on the cost of those components at "launch," but was written back when Sony still insisted that March 2006 would be the launch month. Were it actually made in March 2006, it would have cost $900 to build. (c) The component list was based off Sony's 2005 E3 specs for the PS3, which diff
Wow, flash news here (Score:5, Informative)
The NES had a launch price of $200, the SNES had a launch price of $200, the N64 had a launch price of $200, the GameCube had a launch price of $200.
Nintendo has had launch prices of $200 for 20 years now, you have to be pretty fucking impressive to even have the nerve to utter that they could launch a console for an unheard-of-before price of $200
Well, at least that time Merrill Lynch may be spot on.
Re:Wow, flash news here (Score:2)
Except that due to inflation and the depreciation of the US dollar, a $200 Wii would be a lot cheaper than a $200 NES in terms of real value, during their respective launch periods.
Re:Wow, flash news here (Score:2)
And we're supposed to care why? The $200 GameCube was cheaper than the $200 N64 which was cheaper than the $200 SNES which was cheaper than the $200 NES in inflation-adjusted price (a graphic on the previous article on the subject had figures of $225 for the GC, $254 for the N64, $293 for the SNES and $364 for the NES). The point is that the absolute price at release of every single Nintendo console has always been $200.
We're not talking "real value" here, we're talking absolute price points over 20 years.
Re:Wow, flash news here (Score:2)
Re:Wow, flash news here (Score:2)
Re:Wow, flash news here (Score:2)
Re:Wow, flash news here (Score:2)
Re:Wow, flash news here (Score:2)
As long as Moore's Law exceeds inflation... (Score:5, Insightful)
If $200 buys you X transistors this year, and 1.5X transistors in 2008, then as long as inflation doesn't exceed 22% a year, you'll be getting more capability for less money each time.
Or at least that's true as long as the cost of the chips needed for an acceptable game machine make up a significant portion of the cost of the machine. When the chips are (much) less expensive than the rest of the components, the relative cost curve will flatten out.
-Mark
Potential Wii (Score:5, Interesting)
Re:Potential Wii (Score:2)
Yes but is the pun in "raise" because their console is called Wii, or is the pun in "revolutionary" because their console was called "Revolution"
Re:Potential Wii (Score:2)
www.childsplaycharity.org
Re:Potential Wii (Score:3, Interesting)
If nothing else it's not only good publicity, but it's almost viral marketing. When kids are in hospitals sick, and they have this great system with great games that's cheap, parents might consider it afterward.
And with the price discrepency, I really don't see Childsplay buying that many PS3's this year,
Re:Potential Wii (Score:3, Funny)
Hmmm (Score:5, Insightful)
The raw console will be $200 with your standard one controller, but you'll not have everything you want for far more.
Re:Hmmm (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Hmmm (Score:2)
ANd of course, a 360 or PS3 would have the same extra cost, and the games are slated to raise to $60.
Re:Hmmm (Score:2)
Re:Hmmm (Score:2)
Now back to real data- a game and a memory stick to save on. Depending on the game, the memory stick may be optional, but we'll count it anyway. Still nowhere near the 360, let alone the ps3, and they need games bought seprately as well.
Re:Hmmm (Score:2)
Re:Hmmm (Score:2)
Maybe a few weeks ago... (Score:3, Interesting)
If it turns out to be above $250, I sure hope they include an extra controller and perhaps some sample games to show off functionality (Wii Sports, for example, seems fun but doesn't strike me as a game I would pay $50 for)
Re:Maybe a few weeks ago... (Score:4, Insightful)
Duh? there'd be no fucking point in doing that. Consider the followings:
Re:Maybe a few weeks ago... (Score:2)
I guess what I a
Good news/bad news hypothesis (Score:2, Interesting)
E3 sidebar? (Score:2)
Wii = Gamecube 1.5 $200 upgrade (Score:2, Interesting)
Wii is hardly more powerful than gamecube. GC 1.5 indeed. Partial Wii Specs [xbitlabs.com] vs. GC Specs> [psreporter.com]
They are releasing AAA GC titles [ign.com] simultaneously with Wii anyw
Re:Wii = Gamecube 1.5 $200 upgrade (Score:2)
Re:Wii = Gamecube 1.5 $200 upgrade (Score:2, Informative)
Re:Wii = Gamecube 1.5 $200 upgrade (Score:3, Interesting)
Still, it's certainly a valid observation that the jump between the GameCube's 485MHz chip and the Wii's 729MHz one is not particularly big - we shall have to wait and see whether that will matter. Personally, and given the pricing of Nintendo's previous offerings, I think it makes a $200 Wii a certain
Re:Wii = Gamecube 1.5 $200 upgrade (Score:2, Insightful)
If by "hardly" you mean "two to three times" then yes.
They should have just bundled the controller with whatever handful of games they plan to have it work with and called it a day.
Yeah, like the CD-I. That worked really well, right? No console add-on with fundamentally different capabilities from the base console has ever gained wide acceptance. Nintendo would be shooting itself in the foot if it did that, even if the Wii's capabilities were the same as the
Re:Wii = Gamecube 1.5 $200 upgrade (Score:4, Interesting)
I think that was originally Nintendo's plan. A few years ago Nintendo was talking about coming out with a new accessory for the GameCube that would extend it's life for several years. They didn't really say much more about it after the initial mention.
It looks like Nintendo realized that the GameCube just didn't sell well enough to make that strategy work. They realized that having a purple system as the focus of their advertising wasn't a good idea and helped contribute to the negative image of the GameCube. They decided they'd stand a better chance of success if they released a new system focused on the new controller rather than trying to sell it as a GameCube addon.
Wii = next-evolution in gaming for only $200 (Score:4, Insightful)
Its CPU is basically a G5 from what I've read. And from personal experience, a 970 FX can easilly destroys the P3/Celeorn-hybrid found in the XBox and the Custom G3 found in the GC. Your "hardly comment" only goes to show how ignorant you are about these things. The Wii's GPU is at least 4 or 5 generations ahead of its predecessor, so that's going to make a big difference in performance. It's also pretty much guaranteed that the Wii will have a PPU. If this is the case, it will make a substantial difference in performance for 3D games, and free up the CPU to do other tasks. A dedicated PPU would be much faster than the software route the X360 and PS3 have taken.
I found most of what you sated to be more inflammatory than instightful. But it's good that you pointed out the backwards compatibily. I know you were trying to use that to state your case, but it's one of the Wii's strengths and it's just another reason for me to buy one.
The Wiimote isn't an afterthought like Sony's hack-job as an example, so all Wii games that can benefit from it, will support it. This is why the Wii is going to be great and you honestly can't deny you would love this sort of thing on your favorite console. You're only "trying" to spread "misinformation" by stating things like a "handfull of games." Like that's going to change anything, since Nintendo has a huge line up of Wii games, which are wiimote-friendly, which will be ready for launch. A bundled "main" controller won't have problems getting support from developers; Get real!
Anway, most of your points can easilly be applied to the other consoles, since they're basically upgrades. They haven't changed gaming, they've only moved consoles up to the level of mid-ranged PCs when it comes to visual eye-candy. Nintendo's Wii is the only console that has brought something new to the plate and it has all the potentional to evovle gaming beyond the current state of same, which MS and Sony are moving forward with. An upgrade is better graphics and more power, not a whole new way to game, which only the Wii can offer.
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Re:Wii = Gamecube 1.5 $200 upgrade (Score:2)
The first few rounds of Wii dev kits where just GameCubes with new controllers. It's only recently that they've started sending out kits with better internals.
Re:Wii = Gamecube 1.5 $200 upgrade (Score:2)
Game prices and piracy (Score:3, Informative)
The cheapest Game Boy Micro I found goes for R$399.00 ~ $181.00 (expensive, but affordable considering you only need one console). GBA games: R$ 69.00 (older games) to R$249.00 (WTF!?) ~ $31.00 to $113.00
I don't know anyone who has any of these consoles, but I know quite a few people who have PS2. The PS2 costs about $295,00 (with mod chip installed), but the games are virtually free due to piracy.
Is the situation similar in other countries? That would explain why Sony sells so many PS2.
How life changes... (Score:5, Funny)
If you had uttered this phrase to me 8 years ago, I would have told you that you need better jokes.
IF this turns true... and only if (Score:4, Funny)
On the serious side though, I'm in that group of "buy another console? Over my dead body!" I pinch pennies all the time now and I don't get to buy/play what I want anymore. Part of me actually wants all these consoles to undersell their expectations and then maybe just maybe these consoles will stop being pushed out so frequently.
Oh well, I can always play on my computer.
Bundles... (Score:2)
It would be so easy (Score:2)
We can also assume that the Wii costs about the same to make as the Cube, suggesting a similar price point.
I can easily see a starting bundle that's the Wii with it's one controller, another controller, and two first party games, plus some other random accessory for $299.99 + tax.
360 Can't beat that, and for that for the PS3 would proba
Ummmm (Score:2)
At least Nintendo remembers why people buy console (Score:3, Interesting)
At least Nintendo remembers why people buy videogame consoles instead of (or in addition to) general purpose computers. People bought all of the most successful game systems because they were a cheap and easy to entertain your kids, NOT because they were higher powered - consoles are all low powered compared to loaded gamer PC's. Of course, for every generation of game systems there is competition about who has the best spec's and, more importantly, the best games, but every time a company forgets that the most important thing is to be cheap and easy, they end up making an absurdly over-spec'd, over-priced, overly complex system that fails in the marketplace because they chased after the high-end niche market instead of the mainstream.
Winning Systems: NES, GameBoy, PlayStation, PlayStation 2 (pushing the high-end of pricing at launch, but came down).
Losing Systems: Intellivision, Atari Lynx, NEC Turbo Graphix, 3DO, DreamCast, Xbox. All tried to sell more functionality for more money than people were willing to pay.
When I look at the next generation systems, the Wii looks like the NES and GameBoy - a cheap and easy way to entertain your kids. And Sony and MS's next boxes look a lot like 3DO - great spec's, but wiped out by more pragmatic competition.
Sony's only hope is that they can somehow convince people to buy PS3's as their HD DVD player, which might get home theater enthusiasts to buy PS3's. The Xbox 360 seems doomed to me, once its real competition arrives.
My prediction is that the Wii will outsell the PS3 and Xbox 360 by massive amounts, because Nintendo is (1) targeting the mainstream market, and (2) focusing on gameplay, innovating in areas like the controllers, and their downloadable game service, that don't price them out of their market. The risk I see to the Wii is that if game publishers don't think it'll do well, they won't sell games for it, hurting it in the general marketplace. But if Nintendo is committed to the Wii's success, I think it'll do decently well just on the strength that you can buy it (if rumors are true). As a parent, I think I'm more likely to buy a Wii for $200 just to play whatever the next cool Mario game is, rather than to spend $4-500 (or more?!) for the competition. Heck, the Wii controller is the only interesting thing I've read about any of these units, and it's on the cheapest one...
Controllers from the Cube will work (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:I think a $300 retail price at launch is likely (Score:3, Informative)
Nintendo has always had a profit on all the consoles they've sold.
I don't see why Nintendo couldn't sell at $200 and still make profit. My understanding is that the core hardware isn't that much different from the Gamecube. Sure, they might lose short term profits that they could have had, but it would be worth it
Re:I think a $300 retail price at launch is likely (Score:2, Flamebait)
Re:I think a $300 retail price at launch is likely (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:I think a $300 retail price at launch is likely (Score:3, Interesting)
What part of that statement is not true?
It's not just that the Wii is slower than the 360 or PS3, it also doesn't have a lot of the modern features either of those have (it also doesn't have the incredibly convoluted PPU system they have either, but how difficult the hardware is to program for is another argument altogether). The GPU doesn't have pixel or vertex shader hardware, do you kno
chance for more memory? (Score:2)
Of course, I don't know how difficult that would be to do...
Re:I think a $300 retail price at launch is likely (Score:2)
When the first talk of this round of consoles started, I had no interest in getting any of them. None at all. When I first saw
Re:I think a $300 retail price at launch is likely (Score:2)
Re:I think a $300 retail price at launch is likely (Score:2)
Re:I think a $300 retail price at launch is likely (Score:2)
My money is on $250.
Re:I think a $300 retail price at launch is likely (Score:2)
Regarding games, everyone has a different idea of fun. I never picked up a GC, since it didn't have anything I really *had* to have, that was worth the price of a new console. However, there were plenty of games on the Xbox and especially PS2 side that I just had to play. *shrugs*
My Nintendo "console" for this generation? The DS. But I
Re:I think a $300 retail price at launch is likely (Score:2)
While it's true that Nintendo is reported to make a profit on the console hardware, it should be pointed out that every previous console has launched at $200. Even N64, which was much more powerful (though had less storage)
Re:I think a $300 retail price at launch is likely (Score:5, Informative)
No it hasn't. Consumer electronics aren't affected by inflation.
From capacitors and resistors to DVD lasers, they're all cheaper today than ever before.
Re:I think a $300 retail price at launch is likely (Score:2, Insightful)
I think the real factor that will affect the starting price is the availability of the console. If the manufacturing yield is as high as might be expected, the might be able to have a boat load of these available at launch. Rather than try to ride the early adopter wave at a higher price point, I think Nintendo would be better off makin
Re:$300 for a real Wii package. (Score:3, Interesting)
N64 = $250 (Score:2)
Blu-Ray speed (Score:2)
times what though? I'm guessing the data thoroughput on Blu-Ray is higher than DVD.