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PS3 To Slow Game Industry Growth? 197

Posted by Zonk from the you're-getting-sleepy dept.
simoniker writes "DFC Intelligence's game analyst David Cole has released a new report on the next-gen video game market, and he's especially harsh on PS3 plans: 'The high price of the PlayStation 3 is going to slow overall industry growth, especially for software,' and '...if Sony does not change its current strategy for the PS3 the system will probably end up in third place in installed base.' He also suggests that 'the PS3 would be more than 35% of the monthly household income' of average families in some world territories. When will the backlash end?" The bottom line is that, even if they ramp up to 200,000 units a month starting this month, they're still not going to hit their 2 million unit goal in time for a November launch. Shortages and the high price tag will mean this is going to be a very weird Christmas console season.
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PS3 To Slow Game Industry Growth? More

PS3 To Slow Game Industry Growth?

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  • It's already weird... (Score:4, Funny)

    by __aaclcg7560 ( 824291 ) on Wednesday July 19, 2006 @12:41PM (#15744676)
    Considering that the PS2 is shipping more units than the XBox 360, things are already weird. It would very embrassing to Sony if PS2 was selling more units than the PS3 (assuming that Sony doesn't cut production of the PS2 first). If Nintendo comes out on top, welcome to brightly colored weirdsville.

    • Why would that be weird? (Score:5, Insightful)

      by brunes69 ( 86786 ) <slashdot@keirstead . o rg> on Wednesday July 19, 2006 @12:47PM (#15744719)

      If Nintendo comes out on top, welcome to brightly colored weirdsville.

      I wouldnt' consider that weird at all, in fact, I anticipate just that. The Revolution/Wii looks like a truely innovative console, with some amazing games, and great gameplay. Nintendo is really doing the right thing here.

      In my mind, the Wii looks poised to do what i haven't seen from a console since the NES/Super NES days - It's the type of console parent's will *want* to buy for their children for christmas, rather than the kind they are *asked* to buy by the children.

      If the Wii falls anything short of first place after this season, I am convinced it would be because of the name change - I still hate it.

      • Sorry but get real. Playstation is the brand that parents and kids are completely familiar with, in much the same way as the generation about thought of "the Nintendo" as the thing you played games on in the living room. I would love Nintendo to come out on top, but I think than expecting it is a little niave. I think it will take time for the truly revolutionary aspects of the Wii to become well-known to the general public, and remember that people fear change and pointing with a wand is a pretty big chan
        • Hi, have you ever heard of "Demo units"? You know, those things in Best Buy or EB Games where they have the consoles set up with an LCD screen where you can try out the games on the system? I can hear the discussions now

          Parent: Ooh, what's that they're playing over there?
          Child: Oh, that's the new Nintendo console
          Parent: Wow, that looks like fun. Do you want that?
          Child: No, I want a PS3, and you said I could only have one console.
          Parent: Hmmm, that looks like a lot of fun for my little one and for
          • I think about this a lot. I work in a games store and I really, really hope we get a Wii pod in-store. I think that seeing it in action and getting a chance to play it will really be needed to sell the system. This is the sort of thing I meant in my last post, I think it will take time for people to see the Wii in stores and see them at friends houses until it's become something the general public are informed about, as opposed to "The New Playstation" which will be filling the news in the coming months.
            • Yes, but how well are the Wii-motes going to stand up to demo use? ... and if they don't, how well will the demo really go? (or will the Wii-motes be chained down hard to the console so you are limited to 'standard' use ... keeping the inovative aspects from being presented)

              • The wiimotes will more than likely be devkit's wiimotes i.e., wired wiimotes. That doesn't limit the gameplay to anything even remotely like traditional gaming, it just means that the customer can't take off with the 'mote.

                • That doesn't limit the gameplay to anything even remotely like traditional gaming,


                  Heh, you said remotely
                • Even if they are corded, will they be able to put up with abuse? (I've seen what some of the light-guns at the local arcade are put through, and those are designed to be abused).

                  I'm not saying people are going to try to break them, but there is a major difference between what sort of abuse they would get in a store compared to at home ...

                  okay ... maybe in some homes the difference is smaller, but its still a more fragile situation than any previous console controler that was basically bolted to a metal encl
        • And about 10 years ago, Nintendo was the brand that parents and kids were familiar with. Things change. Sony are showing a similar level of arrogance as Nintendo when they started their downhill spiral in losing market share. I'm not expecting anything, but I wouldn't be surprised if the PS3 doesn't fair well.
        • The kids can be familiar with anything they want, what kid can afford a 600$ console? And what parent would agree to buy one for the kids?
      • It's weird simply because Nintendo got trounced in the last two generations, and it's not terribly common for the losing company (not in terms of profit, but market share) to come back so strongly (or the remaining competitors to stumble so significantly). It's particularly interesting considering that Nintendo isn't even targeting the same market segment that the other two are, and thus it is, in a sense, looking to redefine the industry in terms of the "casual gamer"... and it might actually succeed.
        • The Nintendo 64 and the Gamecube were profitable, and the Gameboy/GBA/DS line was never surpassed in the portable console biz.
          • There's a reason I specifically mentioned marketshare. :) Yes, they were profitable, but they lost the hearts and minds of gamers, and that's the kind of success that's difficult to recover.

        • It's weird simply because Nintendo got trounced in the last two generations

          While they didn't get a big market share, the N64 and the GC still sold a fair number of units worldwide and brought money to Big N's piggy bank, and they had an undisputed monopoly on handled until the release of the PSP. And they're getting it back big time with the DS:L, and people realizing that the PSP has something like 2 original/interresting games (Loco Roco and Lumines) with the others being more like ports of PS1&PS2

        • Nintendo didn't get trounced last generation. The GC sold about as many units as the XBox did worldwide. So if the GC got trounced then so did XBox. I don't know where the rumour comes from that Nintendo has been "trounced". According to wikipedia on Console wars [wikipedia.org] GC sold 20 million units, and XBox 24 million units. PS2 killed them both with 102 million units shipped (unknown how many are sold). And the N64 sold 33 Million units. I don't really call that a low sales number. Sure it isn't as good as t
        • Trounced in what sense? The Gamecube has shipped almost the same units vs. the Xbox (20.6 million vs. 22 million). They are in 3rd, but barely. Hardly a "trounced" rating. Combine that with all of Nintento's portable sales which have constantly led the marketplace.

          Nintendo is doing just fine.

          • Yes, going from #1 to barely tied for second is just fine... Honestly, where do you people come from? I own a DS, I love the titles, and I like Nintendo, but I can accept that they were soundly beaten by Sony, and then MS, a complete newcomer, proceeded to suck away half of the remaining market from right underneath their feet.

            Of course, your statements about the portable market are simply a non-sequitor. We're talking about the console industry here... the portable market is a completely different beast
      • As the father of two boys, I can support your theory. My older boy really wanted the XBox 360. However, as the details and pricing of the Nintendo Wii have been released, he's come 'round to my thinking. The motion controllers are what really started to sway him. Now he'd rather we buy the Wii and use the difference in price to buy a few games right off the bat. Which suits me just fine.

      • Re:Why would that be weird? (Score:4, Interesting)

        by gstoddart ( 321705 ) on Wednesday July 19, 2006 @01:51PM (#15745229) Homepage
        I wouldnt' consider that weird at all, in fact, I anticipate just that. The Revolution/Wii looks like a truely innovative console, with some amazing games, and great gameplay. Nintendo is really doing the right thing here.

        Exactly correct. I grew up in the days of two buttons and a joystick. I can't operate most video games very effectively any more, they're just way too complex.

        A Wii could breathe new life into my gaming, as it is going to focus on fun and gameplay, with a really simple interface in the form of their new controller. Sony definitely will NOT be getting my gaming money, and having owned both a PS and a PS2, I am not the target audience for a PS3. And the presence of Blu Ray is irrelevant for me since I don't own anything HD.

        I predict Nintendo will clean up on the people wanting casual/family games rather than FPS or other things which are very difficult to control.

        Cheers
      • Hmm, amazing games with great gameplay can be had on all platforms. For the Wii to succeed requires a) that the controller is good (and there are plenty of ways that it could suck), b) the games to be suitable for the controller and not suck too, c) gamers to like playing all their games through a hand waving device.

        Personally I think the Wii is a very interesting console, but game companies are going to have to work damned hard to make the thing any use for a whole raft of traditional game genres. Anythi

    • "If Nintendo comes out on top, welcome to brightly colored weirdsville."

      Hi!
    • It's not so weird that the PS2 is outselling the Xbox 360 and it wont be weird when it outsells the PS3 this holiday. The PS1 outsold the PS2 it's first year out too...

      The PS3 can only sell as well as the number of consoles they make. I suspect it will sell out but only because they're dividing the 1.6million they're suspected being able to actually deliver by christmas across three continents. I would imagine with much more simple hardware the Wii will be able to meet whatever demand arises. and with MS
    • I love when people bring this up but don't stop to mention that the ps2 is now less than $200 while the xbox360 is still at least $400 (for the full featured version). Not to mention that there are a number of (OLD) games out for the PS2 that have been cut to $20 while Xbox360 games are still full priced ($50+).

      In other news. Honda is shipping more cars than Mercedes Benz. I wonder why.

      And the PS2 WILL sell more units than the PS3 when it finally arrives in stores because there are more people who don't
      • A noticeable part of the PS2 sales are also likely to be replacement consoles for the ones whose DVD reader broke or stuff. When you have dozens of games, you just buy a new PS2 when yours break. I know my PS2-owning friends do it that way. Not that they have the choice.

  • 35%? (Score:4, Insightful)

    by elzurawka ( 671029 ) on Wednesday July 19, 2006 @12:42PM (#15744677)
    "He also suggests that 'the PS3 would be more than 35% of the monthly household income' of average families in some world territories."

    At the prices ive seen suggested for this system, its going to more liek 350% of some world territories. Maybe they ment 1st world countries.

    I dont think this will slow the market at all though. If anything all the people that have been waiting around for the PS3 will realize that they arnt going to get what they have been hyped up to belive. Once they have all the options before them, they will chose one, right now its Xbxo360 or nothing...so people are still waiting to see what the others offer.
    There is no way that its going to slow down the market, xbox will drop in price, Wii will be out, sales may be bad for the PS3, but i think over all the industry will grow, just like in the past with new generations of Consoles.

    You also cant forget how many people out there are buying the 3000$ TV's....they dont buy these so that they can watch their VHS tapes. They buy them because they have the money, im sure the PS3 will go like hot cakes. Just becase 90% of the world cant aford it, doesnt mean that they poeple that can(and there are LOTS of them) wont.

    • Re:35%? (Score:3, Funny)

      by frosty_tsm ( 933163 )
      At the prices ive seen suggested for this system, its going to more liek 350% of some world territories.

      Those bushmen don't need a PS3. They've got their coke bottle [imdb.com]!

    • If I were making about half what I do now, a PS3 would be about 35% of my monthly income after the tax markup on the console.

      Anyway, I think the reason why the situation that Sony is painting itself into might be a problem in terms of overall industry growth is the legacy issue. The PS2 was the most successful console of the previous generation, and a lot of people have dozens, even hundreds of PS2 titles. This is a very significant monetary investment. The PS3, like its predecessor, is designed to be ful

      • Mavis Beacon 15, which requires a 256MB dedicated 3d card and DirectX9.
        Dude, you just made me choke on my soda. You owe me a new life..
      • hmm maybe. Nothing says those people can't keep their PS2s kicking around. It's a lot easier to leave an extra square-foot of shelf space for a dusty PS2 then a whole desk area for an old computer.

        Sure, it's convenient to buy the predecessor and use a single machine to play all your games but convenience only wins out over price to a point. I think the high price of entry WILL stagnate the market a bit with people, as you said, choosing not get any new console at all. But I think that will only effect a

        • You've got a good point there entertainment center real estate. I hope you don't end up like Jim [penny-arcade.com] trying to get more than one console hooked up, though.

          • Thankfully I've got plenty of space in my AV rack currently it holds: A full sized surround sound Marantz reciever, a Psyclone Compoent video switch, An Acoustic Research powercleaner, An Xbox 360, A slim PS2, A Gamecube, 2 Xbox 1s, A Sega Saturn, A Sega Dreamcast, and a PSOne. and I've got enough space left over tha I could fit a Wii and a PS3 if I wanted to.

            With all the console capable of standing vertically now it helps with space for a lot of people though. All of my stuff is horizontal but I know a
    • Personally I don't care what percentage it is of my household income -- with inflation my fixed costs have become higher than before, and I'd be buying a game system out of free cash, not total cash. Let's see what percentage that is about... ah yes, negative 600 percent. The PS3 costs negative 600 percent of my monthly free cash right now.
    • You also cant forget how many people out there are buying the 3000$ TV's....they dont buy these so that they can watch their VHS tapes.

      Fair enough. But remember that you also have to think about all the people who are buying off-brand CRT televisions for $129 at the discount stores, as well as all the people who are still looking at the same TV they bought in 1991.
    • when the ps2 was released, i personally thought it was expensive. the ps3 looks like it will elicit the same response from me. its real expensive. people will desire it, and eventually purchase it when it drops to their price range.

      the reason the industry grew so much this past generation is undoubtedly due to the ps2. numbers are in sony's favor. even if they alienated 50% of their established fanbase this generation [which they have not...] but speaking hypothetically there is another 50 million sony loya

  • Simple! (Score:4, Insightful)

    by Lally Singh ( 3427 ) on Wednesday July 19, 2006 @12:42PM (#15744680) Journal
    When will the backlash end


    When the gaming media has real stories to go after, instead of more bitching about early adopter pricing or the technological risks sony's taking. And also when the competition stops paying for 'studies.'

    Same old bullshit, different product.
    • I don't think this is just early adopter pricing. Due to low yield on cell processors and the cost of the first generation blue ray drives this thing is supposed to be costing more than $600 to make so it's not like they can just drop the price to $300 after a year. They'll lower the price as their costs come down, but it's not something that will happen immediately. Based on the way console makers have handled price reductions in the past I wouldn't expect to see the PS3 for under $300 for about 5 years.
      • Sony's been calling it early adopter pricing, and they pulled the same thing with the PS2 when it came out. For market share, for both the ps3 and blue ray, sony's not one to have a problem pricing aggressively.

  • Right, right (Score:2, Interesting)

    by Anonymous Coward
    The bottom line is that, even if they ramp up to 200,000 units a month starting this month, they're still not going to hit their 2 million unit goal in time for a November launch. Shortages and the high price tag will mean this is going to be a very weird Christmas console season.

    Yes, Zonk, we know, sony is teh doomed and someday soon you will stand victorious upon the rubble of the bulldozed Sony headquarters, clutching your XBox 360 and laughing maniacally. We get it already, you don't have to keep rammin
    • Yes, I don't see the PS3's horrible pricing or low availability as being a major issue. Unlike Nintendo, Sony has plenty of games coming out for its current generation hardware, so it doesn't need to ship the PS3 by Christmas. In fact, since margins on the console will be very low at first release, they probably won't benefit much profit-wise if they do manage to ship it.

      Nintendo's the one that could slow the industry. There's hardly anything for GameCube [metacritic.com] coming out, so if people decide they don't want to w

      • Yeah, except DS:Lite and DS games which are selling like hot cakes: current top 10s of game sales usually have 5-7 DS games at the top (the rest being mostly PS2 games), with New Super Mario Bros usually at the top spot.

        And great many (good) DS games have been announced and will supposedly be released pretty soon.

  • Editors, what are you doing? (Score:4, Informative)

    by X43B ( 577258 ) on Wednesday July 19, 2006 @12:52PM (#15744759) Journal
    " The bottom line is that, even if they ramp up to 200,000 units a month starting this month, they're still not going to hit their 2 million unit goal in time for a November launch. Shortages and the high price tag will mean this is going to be a very weird Christmas console season. "

    Based on the layout of that quote, I believe the editor said this. If they had actually read the link they quoted, they would know that 200,000 is a first run and Sony plans to produce 2 million units in October alone.

    Wow.

  • This doesnt add up... (Score:3, Insightful)

    by grapeape ( 137008 ) <mpope7 AT kc DOT rr DOT com> on Wednesday July 19, 2006 @12:57PM (#15744805) Homepage
    So if people find the PS3 too expensive they will just choose to buy nothing or just hold out until prices drop? Prices normally drop when prodcution gets less expensive, sales have started to offset costs or popularity wanes. If sales are not generated that allow those things to happen then price cuts are generally a long ways off unless they console in jeopardy in which case people wont buy it anyway (i.e. dreamcast). That wont happen with the ps3, it will be successful its just a question of how successful.

    I really dont thing any one console is going shrink the market, increase it maybe, but not shrink it. If a gamer wants to play games he is going to buy something, especially when his old console is no longer supported with new games, he/she just might not be buying the one he originally wanted. If this was truly the case wouldnt the market today be slowed by the death of Sega hardware due to all those Sega fans dropping out of gaming?
    • It works in his mind -- he's an analyst so he MUST be right. Just like, in his world, [analogy time!] if a car maker came out with a car that went 0-60 in 2 seconds, had heated + cooled leather seats, contained 18 cupholders, and scratched your ass with a laser from space - but was insanely expensive - it would slow down the market, even if the other auto-makers made drastic improvements and innovations to their cars. I wish I was an analyst so I could make up things that didn't even have to make sense an
      • The analysit's prediction DOES have merit. You can't compare it to the auto industry because all cars can take you down the same roads. Not all consoles can let you play the same games. You can't compare a console's games to features in a car, a console's purpose is to play games, a car's purpose is to take you places. If there was a car on the market that was the only one capable of traveling through a certain set of roads, I'm sure people who wanted to travel down those roads would buy that car over any o
        • Have you seen the launch line-up for the PS3? Even Sony admits it's unexciting! I don't see anyone sitting on the money they would otherwise spend on a 360/Wii for those launch games... yet Sony is still worrying about shortages (and they're trying to have 2 million units ready). I just can't see any real gamer sitting on money for unexciting launch games -- games aren't about investment (games aren't like a car in that you don't buy them to last for years... it's usually one or two plays through, worth
    • If sales are not generated that allow those things to happen then price cuts are generally a long ways off unless they console in jeopardy in which case people wont buy it anyway (i.e. dreamcast).

      Doesn't Sony have some other sources of income? Like, say...music? Movies? Consumer electronics? Sony will cut the price to move systems even if it means taking a loss; most of the profit comes from software, and Sony can (and may very well have to) take a hit on the consoles to make that software move.

  • Shortages... (Score:2, Interesting)

    by hackwrench ( 573697 )
    If there are shortages then that fellow really was right and the PS3 isn't selling at high enough a price.

  • I'm not going to buy a PS3 (Score:4, Interesting)

    by maynard ( 3337 ) on Wednesday July 19, 2006 @01:09PM (#15744873) Journal
    I have a PS2 and a PSP, and I was expecting to buy a PS3 as soon as I could get ahold of one - primarily for a cheap blu-ray drive, but also for backward compatibility. I have plenty of other Sony products, and like the company's engineering and manufacturing quality control. But the company's arrogance over PSP homebrew and the poor game availability, combined with this ridiculous $600 price tag for a PS3 w/hdmi has convinced me that Sony is in a tailspin. I simply don't want to give them my money any longer.

    I \*can\* afford it. I don't want it. Until Sony refocuses on the consumer again, I'm not giving them a dime.
    • well, I agree with you at the end of your post but this made me laugh;

      "and [I] like the company's engineering and manufacturing quality control"...

      *cough* rootkit *cough*
    • I have plenty of other Sony products, and like the company's engineering and manufacturing quality control.

      apparently not too many of those devices are optical drives more than a year old.

      I won't buy a PS3 either, unless it's actually useful as a general-purpose Linux computer. That means, among other things, good OpenGL support. We'll see what happens. It's just too much money for a game console. I can't justify spending that.

    • Not sure if it alters your choice any, but the base PS3 is $500. If you think you need the $600 model for anything, you have been misled by people looking to make the PS3 seem more expensive than it is already (which is odd as $500 is still very expensive).

      You will be able to watch Blu-Ray movies at 1080i on a $500 PS3.

      You will be able to play games at 1080p on a $500 PS3.

      A lot of this misunderstanding is buying into TV marketing FUD that you "need" HDMI to do 1080p. That is not so, 1080p will work over c

  • Sony needs to get the PS3 down to $299 for the base system before the Xmas shopping season, or it's not going to happen.

    For what the PS3 currently is proposed to cost, you can get the kid a PS2, a cell phone, a TV, a DVD player, a Game Boy, and some games and DVDs.

    • For what the PS3 currently is proposed to cost, you can get the kid a PS2, a cell phone, a TV, a DVD player, a Game Boy, and some games and DVDs.

      Ahem, the PS2 IS a DVD player...

    • For what the PS3 currently is proposed to cost, you can get the kid...

      Some people complained that even the PS2 was too expensive at launch; Sony left the PSone on the market, with a strong library of inexpensive games, to serve those who didn't want to buy the "expensive" next-generation system yet. The PS2 isn't disappearing this year. It's going to stay around, with a strong library of inexpensive games, for those who don't want to buy the "expensive" next-generation system yet.

      Besides, if a kid is ask

    • Sony sold a million or so units last Christmas where people could hardly get stock and on eBay the normal selling price for all of December was $800.

      Why do you think Sony needs to have a price of $299 to move units? The first million or two, $500 is not that much to a lot of die-hard fans and even more casual fans that are looking for the cheapest Blu-Ray player possible. Since you can do 1080i over component inputs from the cheaper $500 PS3, and movies will not have ICT enabled for a few years it should

  • Sony is about to learn the same lesson as Nintendo (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Bloodwine77 ( 913355 ) on Wednesday July 19, 2006 @01:15PM (#15744921)
    Nintendo
    --------
    Console #1: NES = popular. Nintendo does the Hammer Dance with glee.
    Console #2: SNES = uberpopular. Nintendo plans world domination by crushing everybody with their giant ego
    Console #3: OOPS!! Where'd everybody go?! WE ARE #1, DANGIT!! YOU CAN'T LEAVE US!! MUHAHAHA!! *CRIES*

    Sony
    ----
    Console #1: PlayStation = popular. Sony does the Hamster Dance with glee.
    Console #2: PS2 = uberpopular. Sony plans world domination by crushing everybody with their giant ego
    Console #3: OOPS!! Where'd everybody go?! WE ARE #1, DANIT!! IT'S A COMPUTAH! COMPUTAH!! MUHAHAHAHAH! *CRIES*

    Nintendo is just now recovering from their egomaniacal fall and is poised to get back in the game and they are no stranger to the #1 spot.

    If Sony follows Nintendo, it'll be another generation or two before Sony gets their act back together.

    There are other similarities, such as Nintendo falling down because they stuck with proprietary cartridges instead of jumping on the CD/DVD bandwagon. Sony is now pushing proprietary Blu-Ray technology.
    • Hah! Awesome post. But, you forgot the part where Sega skips step 2 entirely in exchange for an extra couple of cracks at step 3.

    • Re:Sony is about to learn the same lesson as Ninte (Score:4, Insightful)

      by rAiNsT0rm ( 877553 ) on Wednesday July 19, 2006 @02:05PM (#15745353) Homepage
      While you are almost correct, there are some glaring problems with your analysis and it is a bit too oversimplified. Nintendo really wasn't looking around for customers so much as developers... that was who they alienated and the consumers left as a result. The cartridge is actually what _helped_ Nintendo, not hurt it. They are damn near copy proof (within reason), have no load times, have no moving parts which lower failure, raise battery life in portables, lower power consumption in consoles, and make them very sturdy and tough.

      Sony was only an entrant into videogames due to the Nintendo/CD debacle. They were not interested in the consumer or providing great new innovative games. They wanted to capitalize on the work they had already done and make a quick buck as a big FU to Nintendo. It was successful to some degree. They tried so hard to manufacture a mascot like Mario or Sonic, and it never worked. They succeeded because it was cheap and easy to produce games for it and the profit margin was higher than with Nintendo. That wasn't going to last forever, and is now starting to show. They tried to ride on their more, better, faster philosophy too long and it is now catching up to them.

      Microsoft was an almost mirror of Sony as far as intentions. They shot themselves in the foot from the getgo. They continue to do so every day. The 360 is actually a pretty decent console, but it is floundering with a total lack of quality games, price, and unpopularity.

      Not to sound overly pro Nintendo, but they have been consistently the only true innovator in console gaming for over 20 years now. They are not simply "cashing-in" but creating a market and then selling to it. Sure, they are not some benevolent company either, but their intentions and products are as close to it as you will find. That is what real gamers should support, even if it isn't the cool thing or doesn't push 90gazillion polys per nanosecond, they are the only company that has the real gamers interests in mind and not just dollar signs. For a group like Slashdot, where "community" and Linux and ideals are supposedly so strong, you would think it would be a no-brainer.

      • Re:Sony is about to learn the same lesson as Ninte (Score:4, Insightful)

        by Manmademan ( 952354 ) on Wednesday July 19, 2006 @03:12PM (#15745897)
        the cartridge is actually what _helped_ Nintendo, not hurt it. They are damn near copy proof (within reason), have no load times, have no moving parts which lower failure, raise battery life in portables, lower power consumption in consoles, and make them very sturdy and tough.

        er, no. The cartridge model was extremely developer unfriendly. Carts are MANY, MANY times more expensive to manufacture than CDs, could only be manufactured by nintendo itself (this is not the case for CD based media) and had to be paid for up front- if a game failed to sell, the developer would be stuck with a lot of very expensive unsellable bricks. Make no mistake, Devs LOVE the CD model.

        They wanted to capitalize on the work they had already done and make a quick buck as a big FU to Nintendo. It was successful to some degree. They tried so hard to manufacture a mascot like Mario or Sonic, and it never worked.

        Successful to some degree? Sony was a first time entrant to the market and the Ps1 ended up doubling the sales of both the SNES and the Genesis, and exceeded the sales of the previous all time seller (the NES) by a good 25 million. It also drew in older gamers in a way that Nintendo, Sega, and Atari never had. It's successor was ALSO a blockbuster success and outsold it, based largely on favorable impressions of the Ps1. make no mistake, Sony's first console was a VERY big deal. As for "trying so hard to manufacture a mascot like mario or sonic..." This is a fallacy. never happened. All of the "mascots" that people associate with the Ps1 (crash, lara croft, klonoa, solid snake...etc) were made by third parties. Sony never made the attempt to market their console this way.

        Not to sound overly pro Nintendo, but they have been consistently the only true innovator in console gaming for over 20 years now. They are not simply "cashing-in" but creating a market and then selling to it. Sure, they are not some benevolent company either, but their intentions and products are as close to it as you will find...

        Blatant fanboysim at its very finest. When nintendo was market leader it's monopolistic tactics in the console market matched or exceeded microsoft's behavior in the desktop market. For instance, if you wanted to make a game for the NES, not only could you not port the game to any other system, third parties couldnt make ANY games for ANY competitor or be blacklisted. Nintendo is a company out to make money any way it can, make no mistake.

        • er, no. The cartridge model was extremely developer unfriendly. Carts are MANY, MANY times more expensive to manufacture than CDs, could only be manufactured by nintendo itself (this is not the case for CD based media) and had to be paid for up front- if a game failed to sell, the developer would be stuck with a lot of very expensive unsellable bricks. Make no mistake, Devs LOVE the CD model.

          Umm, I said the exact same thing as you are saying except mine is adjusted for the real world. Sure CD's are cheape

      • The cartridge is actually what _helped_ Nintendo, not hurt it. They are damn near copy proof (within reason)...

        Were they really [gbadev.org] now?

    • There are other similarities, such as Nintendo falling down because they stuck with proprietary cartridges instead of jumping on the CD/DVD bandwagon. Sony is now pushing proprietary Blu-Ray technology.

      The difference was that it was a different trade-off. Nintendo stuck to cartridge that were more expansive, offered a LOT less storage, but higher speed access. They did it to keep their income in that market (you HAD to buy your cartridge from Nintendo).

      Although Sony has the same type of motivation (make mon

  • Sign me up! This seems like a really sweet gig, especially during lulls in product cycles like we have now. I would love to get paid to point at random companies and say "They're doing something that won't make them as much money as they want it to." The beauty of it is, with that statement I'd always be right!

    • Well... (Score:3, Funny)

      by BlackCobra43 ( 596714 )
      if you can write a 600-page report on it without resorting to repeating te words "Screw Flanders" over and over for the last 595 of them, then yes, you can have his job.
      • Hell - if you can write the phrase "Screw Flanders" repeatedly and have it total 595 words, you get more than his job.
        • Easy!

          Especially when you use a database of pre-canned paragraphs. You don't think that these guys write their analisis from scratch, do you?

          The hardest part is building your contact list. That's why these guys have jobs.... Not because they're accurate, or because they write well. It's simply because they can fill their PDA's contact list to capacity.

  • 'The high price of the PlayStation 3 is going to slow overall industry growth, especially for software,

    I doubt that. Now that the XBox 360 has the numbers to meet the demand (which dwindled as available units rose, heh), and some good software over the horizon, a lot of people who might have been interested in getting a PS3 at $600 would probably consider getting a 360 at only $400.

    And let's not forget Nintendo. The Wii is currently projected to cost no more than $250 (if that), and will certainly be an ent

  • "In fact, even under the best case scenario for the Xbox 360 we predict the system will finish third in Japan while being the number one system worldwide."

    I found that amusing, even if Sony totally screws up and comes in last place in the world, they'll still beat Microsoft in Japan.

  • Next up: Sony eats live babies! Use "zonked" tag. (Score:3, Interesting)

    by SuperKendall ( 25149 ) on Wednesday July 19, 2006 @02:12PM (#15745411)
    Wow, Sony single handedly builds a console so expensive that the gravity of the error sucks the whole gaming industry into a black hole of doom.

    Just possibly, people will buy or not buy the console and buy, or not buy, other things as well or instead of. You can either say "The PS3 is going to be really successful and thus people are going to have less money to spend on games", or "Not that many PS3s will sell and therefore there will be no market slowdown as people buy other systems". Yet this article seems to try to say both of those things at once, that the PS3 price is too high yet it will slow down the whole market.

    Well which is it? Are people buying the PS3 or not? In reality, only time will tell.

    As for Slashdot, we know where they stand - any Anti PS3 news you got, no matter now non-sensical - throw it their way!
    • As for Slashdot, we know where they stand - any Anti PS3 news you got, no matter now non-sensical - throw it their way!

      It's not Slashdot, you know. I have Google news dig out some PS3-related news from random places every day, and you know what? It's all negative. I also have Nintendo-related stories, and they're almost all positive.

      I also read a ton of other gaming sites, and it's the same story.

      It's not a conspiracy. It's either badly-managed PR, or the facts have a Nintendo bias. Or a little bit of b
      • I read other gaming sites as well. Yes anti-Sony PS3 stories abound but there are positive and interesting things about the PS3 or upcoming PS3 games. For instance, there was an interview with War Hawk developers on IGN that not only talked a bit obout what they thought they could do with the PS3 but also brough to light that Sony had in fact been working with them on motion detecting controllers for some time, it's just that they got the first working prototypes a few weeks before E3. That goes contray

  • Simple Question (Score:2, Interesting)

    by sottitron ( 923868 )
    Here is a simple question... If you were Sony and you anticipated that - at the quantity of consoles you could provide - they were going to be selling at $800-$1000 on eBay this Christmas season, then what price point would you set the console at? Why not price it higher and line your own pocket instead of someone else's? Sure some demand will drop off because its not priced at $300, but those people weren't going to shell out to get one at the holiday season anyway. Plus the components will come down a
    • Unlike the PS2 launch, there is competition from the 360. It isn't just that if the price is high, people will wait to purchase the PS3... it is that if the price is high, people will buy the cheaper 360 instead. And most people will only buy one console.

      When little Jimmy is looking to get a next-gen system for X-mas, and his parents have a choice between bidding $1000 on ebay, or walking into Walmart and dropping $500 on the 360... easy choice! Especially when the cheaper console means Jimmy can get way mo
    • But don't you think that it would be more pragmatic to maximize sales? Profit in the long term is going to depend on just how popular your console is (popularity helps convince more developers to invest in your console because they can reach a large audience). If you are using pricing to actually deter sales, that might decrease the marketability of your product overall.
  • Zonk hates the PS3 and loves XBOX360. Move on!

  • He obviously bypassed a technical editor. (Score:4, Informative)

    by BlueCoder ( 223005 ) on Wednesday July 19, 2006 @08:59PM (#15747437)
    You really think they are abandoning the PS2 anytime soon? Or perhaps do you think 1000 games are going to be available for the PS3 at launch?

    Read your video game industry history. The PS2 will still be sold for the next five years. New games are still going to be created for it because it has the installed base.

    The PS3 is the next generation where generations last 10 years and overlap previous and suceeding generations. Consoles are stable computers designed for games, they don't come out with new versions every six months like camcorders. It's expensive now because it has to be as powerful as possible so that it can be viable for ten years. Spend the big bucks now and be smug that you have the best system out there or wait five years and you can get it for $150. Your money, your choice.

    Sony did their homework. You didn't.

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