Videogames Make Traditional Super Bowl Predictions

Thanks to Reuters for its article discussing videogame-based predictions for this weekend's Super Bowl. The piece explains: "Days before the real football championship is contested, Carolina Panthers wide receiver Steve Smith has beaten the New England Patriots' wide-out Troy Brown 29-21 in a head-to-head video game matchup." The match was played on Sony's NFL GameDay 2004, and it's noted: "In the first eight years of the event, the winner of the electronic showdown went on to hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy as the Super Bowl champion." Elsewhere, 1UP has done its own Super Bowl predictions on four different football videogames, and the final results also favor the Panthers.

video game Tom Brady

[IncarnadineConor]

I suspect the video game companies have rated the patriots players a bit low what with the real life team being on a 14 game winning streak and all. I would guess that the reason the games have been fairly accurate predictors in the past is because they have done a good job capturing the varrying skill levels of the players, but for some reason the patriots I watch on TV seem vastly better then the patriots I control in Madden.

Results weren't supported by tests

[Imperator]

So I read the article about the 4 different games they tested with. The problem is that the games really weren't reflective of the real life teams. For example, in two of the games the Panthers were a passing team. Then they somehow conclude the Panthers are a lock? I don't think so. Video games may try to predict football games, but I still trust the predictions from Vegas much more.

Zen Football

[Anonymous Coward]

Games don't do well with the decision making aspect. The Patriots win their games at the D-line. Getting solid pressure on everyone while allowing their linebackers a more versitile role. Feeling the heat while trying to see downfield through the outstretched hands of a three man front with the sinking realization you can't account for McGuinest is hard to model. In actuallity probably no team is done right, but on balance every team but the one on the instruction book cover is probably done right enough. Don't worry, the Pats will be a pretty good team to play in 2k4 assuming they don't Bill-it-up. Also, crowd noise doesn't cause a lot of offensive procedural errors in the football games I've played, nore does intimidation by the opposing defense.

That's the great thing about the NFL. Any team can win on any given day. 14 wins is special, but it's not *just* superlative play. Look at the Cardnials, owners of the NFC North. Next year I'd like to see them play a monday night game in Greenbay so I can hear a mic'ed up Boudin proclaim "Where my bitches at?!" as he takes the field.

Re:Results weren't supported by tests

[molafson]

but I still trust the predictions from Vegas much more.

Problem with this is that when Vegas sets the line, they're not so much predicting the outcome of the game as they are predicting the betting tendencies of the gamblers. E.g. "New England -7" is calculated to ensure that roughly half the bettors will take Carolina, half will take New England.

If they set the spread too low, e.g. "New England -6.5," too many people would bet on New England, so that if New England wins by a touchdown the Vegas books would loose money...

This is also why the line changes if too many people start betting one team. It's kind of like the stock market, insofar as the odds have *something* to do with the teams' projected performance, but have much more to do with the publics' perception of the value of the bet.

At least this is how I understand the system to work. (IANA gambler, though.)

Re:LIONS IN 2006!

[Anonymous Coward]

The defense would likely be able to stay healthy if they werent' playing 3/4s of every game. For the last few years the Lion's D has been essentially playing twice as much as the average nfl team. Of course they're going to start falling apart.

What they need, is more talented targets for harrington, and a credible running threat -- alot of which is in play calling.

But they have a definite personnel issue - not retaining talented free agents and over-paying for over-rated free agents.(*cough*Hakim*cough*Schroeder*cough*).

that said, the Lions will only see the superbowl in 2006 because it'll likely be in our backyard.