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XBox (Games) Entertainment Games

Dvorak On The Future Of The Xbox 174

Posted by simoniker from the curmudgeon-gamer dept.
Thanks to PC Magazine for its John Dvorak-authored editorial discussing his view of the present and future for Microsoft's Xbox game console. Dvorak rages: "Microsoft has over $56 billion in the bank and should be dominating the console market. Unfortunately, the company's overall strategies have failed and may continue to fail, leaving the Xbox in the dustbin with the last great American hope for a super game machine, the 3DO box from circa 1993", before continuing: "I think it can be argued that high-expectation syndrome was partially responsible for the deaths of both the 3DO machine and Sega. It definitely plays into the Xbox story... Compare this rollout to the original Sony PlayStation 1's debut... it just kind of appeared and worked its way to the top by attrition." He ends by musing: "Keeping the Xbox alive is important to Microsoft. Its pride and prestige are at stake... We will see an Xbox II. Whether it fulfills Microsoft's dream or becomes a collector's item remains to be seen."
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Dvorak On The Future Of The Xbox

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  • Xbox isn't dying (Score:4, Insightful)

    by Moderator ( 189749 ) * on Thursday June 10, 2004 @02:10AM (#9384540)
    What color is the sky in Dvorak's world? The Xbox is outselling the Playstation 2 [1up.com]. Xbox parties have quickly replaced LAN parties, and the fact that you can mod the hell out of it has almost turned soldering into a fad. The only place I can see the Xbox as hurting Microsoft is that PC gaming may suffer as a result. But what does Microsoft care if they already control most of the PC world through Windows anyway? If anything, the Xbox is increasing Microsoft's stronghold in the home.

    This written from a Gamecube fan.

    • Re:Xbox isn't dying (Score:5, Informative)

      by AliasTheRoot ( 171859 ) on Thursday June 10, 2004 @02:38AM (#9384664)
      First up, the article stated PS2 risked being outsold in the US market. Not that it was being outsold. Sales figures for consoles are notoriously difficult to get, and for every Analyst quoting one set of figures that they "predicted" another analyst will predict something wildly different.

      Secondly, irrespective of Microsofts domestic market advantage, the xbox sells poorly in Europe and Japan compared to the PS2. Hell it probably sells poorly compared to the GC in Japan.
      • XBOX sells so badly in Australia that they have continuing to drop the price even though Sony seem to have refused to play the price-war game this time.

        • Re:Xbox isn't dying (Score:2, Interesting)

          by xx404 ( 755873 )
          I'd like to see your figures backing this up. The last issue of OXM claimed that Xbox outsold PS2 last month. I also remember early on after it's launch that Microsoft said that Australia had the highest Xbox ownership per capita in the world. Both consoles sell for around the same price and Xboxen seem to be selling better than PS2 in cashies - people are trading their PS2 in to get an Xbox. GameCube is unfortunately not very popular here, but then I haven't bought one yet either...

      • Re:Xbox isn't dying (Score:5, Informative)

        by atlasheavy ( 169115 ) on Thursday June 10, 2004 @04:00AM (#9384958) Homepage
        Actually, if memory serves, XBox is currently being outsold by the Bandai Wonderswan and the PS1 in Japan currently. MS Game Studios in Japan is doing a lot of work to create games for that market. Hopefully, we'll see the numbers pick up in Japan before too long. I doubt XBox will outsell the GCN in Japan at any point, but it should at least be the 3rd most popular console. Also, as far as the ENU market is concerned, the fall/holiday game lineup for XBox is strong enough that Sony really should have some concerns. Fable, Halo 2, Sudeki, EA games for XBL, blah blah blah. You get the idea.
        • I agree, Microsoft has been very aggressive in lining up exclusive content for their platform - that has really been one of the weaknesses, the majority of the selling titles have been multiformat, and Harry Potter doesn't really look any different on the PS2 or Xbox.

          'sides, the PS2 is much further advanced in it's lifecycle - the people that would buy one at 200 have bought one really, i'm half expecting a price cut to 100 soon which will give it it's second wings.

          just some retail figures I found for th

        • Re:Xbox isn't dying (Score:1, Informative)

          by Anonymous Coward
          MS Game Studios in Japan is doing a lot of work to create games for that market.

          Yeah, like True Fantasy Live Online, for example.

          ... Wait a minute...
        • If MS could get away with it they could always put create an PS1 EMU for the XBOX but that would hurt there sales of XBox games.
    • XBOX is costing Micro$oft money because they make a loss from the console and make their money from game sales, as does the PS2. Unfortunately a rather large proportion of Xbox users mod their consoles and use them as cheap pcs and media players instead of playing games. No game sales = no profit for a console.

      The problem is caused by the fact that the XBox is grossly overpowered (especially with a harddrive) and is built of standard components, making it easy to "misuse"
      • "Unfortunately a rather large proportion of Xbox users mod their consoles and use them as cheap pcs and media players instead of playing games. No game sales = no profit for a console."

        Millions of people are modding their XBOX and using them as 'cheap PCs'? No, sorry. There are people doing it, but 'rather large proportion' is... well... out of proportion.
    • dunno about your friends but mine have jumped recently on the xbox train because of the mega easy modding possibility.

      yea, I'm talking about the pogopin mods that are so easy to install anyone who's ever attached a pci card can do it. If I had a tv I'd be tempted to get one too.

      now.. they should xbox2 do at least the things that xbox1 can do when modded...

    • Re:Xbox isn't dying (Score:3, Informative)

      by king-manic ( 409855 )
      What color is the sky in Dvorak's world? The Xbox is outselling the Playstation 2. Xbox parties have quickly replaced LAN parties, and the fact that you can mod the hell out of it has almost turned soldering into a fad. The only place I can see the Xbox as hurting Microsoft is that PC gaming may suffer as a result. But what does Microsoft care if they already control most of the PC world through Windows anyway? If anything, the Xbox is increasing Microsoft's stronghold in the home.

      This is a fairly recent
      • Xbox is #2 in America #4 or #5 in many other places.

        Considering there are only 3 major consoles that are generally considered to be in the console war, being in #4 or #5 isn't all that great of a position, as it puts it behind either a portable or an older system that it's not even directly competing with.
  • Wasn't his editorial written concerning how Microsoft should be pouring money into cleaning up the 'spaghetti code' that he claims runs amok in Redmond? Granted, I skimmed through the article awaiting my father's recovery from retinal surgery, but I really do not remember any in-depth discussion of the Xbox. I hope his editorial is seen as a call for a new management paradigm, and not just another voice calling for the solution of a problem by more spending. That would make some investors a wee bit nervo

  • Come on, this is Dvorak. (Score:5, Insightful)

    by tm2b ( 42473 ) on Thursday June 10, 2004 @02:21AM (#9384586) Journal
    Dvorak?

    As a self-proclaimed Apple expert, he:
    • Predicted the death of Apple for years and years,
    • Predicted that the stratospherically successful iBook would be a disaster [macopinion.com],
    • Most recently, he predicted in March of 2003 [pcmag.com] that Apple would move the Mac to Intel in the next 12-18 months. Apple's got 3 months left to do it... what do you think the odds are?
    The guy should change his name to "Anonymous Coward" for the amount of trolling he does. So now he's an Xbox "expert," eh?

    Dvorak?

    • Re:Come on, this is Dvorak. (Score:5, Funny)

      by pizza_milkshake ( 580452 ) on Thursday June 10, 2004 @03:07AM (#9384775)
      yeah, and what's with his whacky keyboard?
    • From the apple switching to intel article:
      Scenario. Apple will announce its Intel initiative by showing a transition machine that uses both the Intel and Motorola processors. "So current Mac owners will not have to worry." This will be a high-end machine optimized to run Photoshop. Apple is adept at creating dual-processor architectures, so this won't be too radical. We've heard rumors of this kind of scenario for some time, under the code name Marklar.
      That is one of the most bizzarely stupid ideas I hav
      • I have never heard of a dual CPU machine with different architectures

        Have a look at this then. [emugaming.com]

        The Amiga wanted to make the same 68K to PPC transition that the Mac had done, but rather than move straight to PPC and use emulation, a 3rd party PPC co-processor board was produced. PPC software ran on this processor and 68K software (which was most of the OS) ran on the 68K. So, you would have processor intensive stuff (like the decoding done by movie players) farmed out to the PPC.

        Not an elegant solution,
      • Ever heard of the Game Boy Advance???

        Two DIFFERENT processors -- one for GBA games, and one for legacy GB games.

        OK. I admit that this is not even in the same league as a desktop processor.
        • Also, the PS2 has, essentially, a PS1 onboard, which handles PS1 games and controller input. For game systems with five year discrete lifespans, it's maybe cheaper to just include the old hardware, which costs pennies by that point, than to write and support a software emu.
      • > I have never heard of a dual CPU machine with different architectures

        The PS2 for one.

        The MIPS cpu in the orginal CPU is the IOP in the PS2, which also doubles for the main CPU when playing PS1 games on it.

        --
        The fallacy of government is that it assumes everyone needs to be told how to live,
        but the fact remains it is unconstitutional to homogenize community by its own standards.
        When it passes more laws until it makes everyone a criminal it has made the mistake of placing the intent on the "Letter of t
    • And if anyone remembers back I believe sometime around the mid 90's Dvorak wrote an article in Infoworld about his trip to Comdex in Japan and all the great products he saw there. The problem is that Comdex show never existed since it was cancelled at the last minute.

      Many people in the computer industry distrust John Dvorak ever since this incident. He had also been caught writing product reviews on products that he has never used. The articles were based only what he read from other articles, manuals an
  • From the sales figures, the x-box is certanly not dying, hell, i finally bought one last week (refurb though). Although the increase in sales could be because everyone already has a PS2, so now people are buying xboxs. But has Microsoft actually made any money in their gaming department? They have $50 bil in cash or whatever, so any loss is inconsequential, but iirc, microsoft took like a $200 hit on each console, its probably more now that they're cutting prices. I think the demise of the xbox will be its
    • but iirc, microsoft took like a $200 hit on each console, its probably more now that they're cutting prices

      That's not necessarily true -- sure, XBox prices have never been lower, but the same is true of the hardware that comprises one. The longer a system is out, generally, the cheaper it is to manufacture it.

      • That's not necessarily true -- sure, XBox prices have never been lower, but the same is true of the hardware that comprises one. The longer a system is out, generally, the cheaper it is to manufacture it.

        This is also not necessarily true. They out sourced a lot of their chips and hardware within the Xbox thus they don't get the "volume" or "vertical integration" discount on the hardware that Sony and Nintendo enjoys. So while the price has undoubtly come down for them. It hasn't as fast as it has for nin

  • The sky is falling! (Score:5, Insightful)

    by schild ( 713993 ) on Thursday June 10, 2004 @02:25AM (#9384614) Homepage Journal
    Dvorak is slowly becoming the Nostrodamus of the high-tech industry. I think it's about time he started writing apocalyptic theories in book form and sold them through thinkgeek. Meh, he certainly doesn't deserve space on any part of slashdot.

    • Re:The sky is falling! (Score:5, Funny)

      by BigDork1001 ( 683341 ) on Thursday June 10, 2004 @03:10AM (#9384782) Homepage
      Dvorak is slowly becoming the Nostrodamus of the high-tech industry.

      Nope, can't be Nostrodamus. There are people out there who actually put stock in what Nostrodamus predicted. I don't think anyone believes what Dvorak says. I think the better thing to say would be, "Dvorak is slowly becoming the mad, raving, lunatic of the high-tech industry."

      • Re:The sky is falling! (Score:1, Funny)

        by Anonymous Coward
        Dvorak is slowly becoming the mad, raving, lunatic of the high-tech industry.

        Slowly becoming? In my opinion, he reached the mad raving lunatic mark years ago. :)

      • No He already is the "the mad, raving, lunatic of the high-tech industry." but if he keeps throwing crap around eventually something will stick. Then, at that point, people will treat him like ole Nostrodamus.
        • if he was "the mad, raving, lunatic of the high-tech industry," whoever publishes his tripe would just ignore him. it seems to me he's more the village drunk of the high-tech industry. someone can't help but to feel sorry for the fool, otherwise they'd quit publishing his trash that isn't even tabloid worthy...

          he soils the name of my favorite keyboard layout too.
      • "Dvorak is slowly becoming the mad, raving, lunatic of the high-tech industry."

        I wonder when the fight between Dvorak and Kevin "Captain Cyborg" Warwick is then... :)
  • This from a guy who claimed Apple should stop making computers and software and that blogs offer the world nothing new when it comes to original reporting.

    • Re:Dvorak Lacks Credability (Score:1, Funny)

      by Anonymous Coward

      You picked the only two things he's right about.

    • Amen.

      Dvorak's such an idiot...

      PS1 had a huge launch compared to it's rivals of the time. Sega's bumped up and lackluster Saturn launch (although I really liked the Saturn at the time). Atari's promising but unfufilled Jaguar support (not enough Tempest 2000 and AvP quality titles). 3DO who?

      A lot of game shops offered trade-ins for the system before launch. I traded a SNES and games for a PS1 and launch titles at EB.

      He definitely proves the "Empty Barrel / Noise" theory...

  • A point by point rebuttal. (Score:5, Interesting)

    by Anonymous Coward on Thursday June 10, 2004 @03:32AM (#9384852)
    the company has not been able to get worldwide sales, especially Japanese sales [..] but it still has not been popular enough to become a profit center for Microsoft.

    I never remember Microsoft stating that they intended to make a profit on the first Xbox. It was their introduction to the market - and for a debut product they've done remarkably well. They've done better than Sega and (arguably) better than Nintendo.

    The product itself is rather good for a first effort (controller slip-ups excepted). It's definitely the platform with the most longitivity due to the superior hardware specifications.

    All this has recently been compounded by Microsoft's decision to cancel or delay the release of its online game True Fantasy Live Online.

    A game company cancelling a game is not a big deal in the industry. Heck, I've worked in the games industry for 6 years - and been working on 2 titles when they were killed in various stages of development. Cancelling a title isn't a death-blow to a company as large as Microsoft.

    Microsoft has over $56 billion in the bank and should be dominating the console market. Unfortunately, the company's overall strategies have failed and may continue to fail

    They're doing very, very well. Their main competitor is Sony. Sony is not going to take competition sitting down and has been fighting just as dirty as Microsoft, especially on their home turf in Japan. Microsoft has made impressive headway - done well in the US and Europe, but absolutely slaughtered the competition in some markets like Australia.

    It's not like Sony hasn't made some mistakes - the PSX (Playstation 2 media center) pre-emptive strike against a possible Xbox 2 based "Media Center" was a disaster for Sony. There's no reason at all to doubt Microsoft's future in the console market.

    The 3DO machine was the first 32-bit console; there were great games for it and it had powerful underpinnings. Its $700 price tag was probably the main thing that killed it, but it also suffered from the same problem that the Microsoft Xbox has suffered from: high-expectation syndrome.

    Huh? 3DO comparisons aren't valid. 3DO was DOA because it wasn't marketed towards kids (who couldn't afford it), adult gamers weren't interested because there were no games (and Sony hadn't yet created the adult gaming market) - AND the 3DO didn't live up to the hype. But by all accounts from a consumer and developer perspective, the Xbox hit all expectations placed on it. I certainly have no regrets about my purchase, or about developing for it. I've played some great games, have some great games, had 2 titles published - and there are a number of games that I'm looking forward to.

    I had experts come on my radio show and tell me flat-out that the Xbox would become the number-one gaming console, with Sony number two and Sega and Nintendo probably dropping out. [..] The relative lack of hot games reinforced the negative attitude, as did the promises that many of the hot games on the Sony platform would be "ported"--and when they were ported, they'd somehow be better. Some were marginally better, but not enough to change anything.

    So somebody in marketing exaggerated a product's claims to a member of the mainstream media. Yawn. Really, were you born yesterday? Calling yourself a "journalist" would be some sort of exaggeration, but I don't blame you for trying.

    However, you seem to forget that there weren't many good games when the Playstation 1 launched either. Sure, there was "Wipeout", but the PC version (or "port" as you seem to think that's a dirty word) looked much better. The killer Playstation 1 game, "Metal Gear Solid" began development when the machine was being designed. According to lore, they had a prototype running when the hardware was only at 30% of it's final speed. It was *several years* after the launch of the PS1 until that game eventually came out.

    And it's the same situation on the Xbox - only last year and this
    • Microsoft has made impressive headway - done well in the US and Europe, but absolutely slaughtered the competition in some markets like Australia.

      *bzzt* Sorry, you fail. PS2 still controlls the market in Australia.
    • Let me give you, my AC brother, an "amen."

      This furor over TFLO's cancellation (which seems to be what spurred Dvorak into writing his piece) is one of the silliest things ever. I'm sure it cost Microsoft a lot of money to cancel, but MS knows (better than most) the even greater costs of releasing an MMORPG that fails to live up to expectations (I'm looking at you, Asheron's Call 2). From a customer relations standpoint, a failed but released MMORPG means that you're looking at a year or more of support

    • 3DO has these great games... Need for speed Road rash wing commander 3 Star control 2 Gex Slam n Jam Space Hulk Return Fire Twisted Battle Sport Sword n sorcery etc.. A number of titles sold hundreds of thousands each far from DOA. How much was the the PSX when it first came out? 3DO problem was a it's fragmented structure a reliance on 3rd party support. By the time the 3DO company started shipping games it was 2 years after the debut.

    • Re:A point by point rebuttal. (Score:4, Informative)

      by unclethursday ( 664807 ) on Thursday June 10, 2004 @06:33AM (#9385395)
      I never remember Microsoft stating that they intended to make a profit on the first Xbox.

      This is correct... However, MS told shareholders that they would lose only around $900 million by the end of the first 5 years. Not even three years into the lifecycle of the console, and the Xbox has been the main cause of the Home and Entertainment Division losing over $2.3 billion since the launch of the Xbox. The Xbox is the reason that that division is now losing over $200 million per quarter, with no end to the losses in sight.

      Every price drop, game bundle, or Live bundle they put out accross the world loses them more money per console... and the game sales haven't really been there to make up for the loss on the hardware, like what was expected. In fact, MS hasn't had, to the best of my knowledge, a million plus selling game worldwide since the original Splinter Cell, which was only the 4th title on the machine to break the million unit sales.

    • Re:A point by point rebuttal. (Score:4, Interesting)

      by king-manic ( 409855 ) on Thursday June 10, 2004 @12:50PM (#9388792)
      It's definitely the platform with the most longitivity due to the superior hardware specifications.

      Umm.. look up the definition of longevity. Their technical spechs are pretty independant of longevity. The gameboy has longevity. It has some pretty poor specs. The PS1 had longevity the hardware was pretty baseline, the Dreamcast had technological supuriority and no longevity.

      the fact remains, they haven't done nearly as well as they hoped. Have failed everywhere except America.

      Nowm I'm not a fanboy. I have all 3. And a gameboy SP and a PC that can run all modern games. Thats just the facts. Xbox is nice technically, but did rather poorly in comparison to it's expectations.

  • Fanatic... (Score:1, Insightful)

    by Anonymous Coward
    Mr. Dvorak comes over as a barely-intelligible fanatic.

    I'm the first to admit that the X-Box has not achieved global domination. The only company ever to have made such a first-impact on the console market is Sony, and they did this with the PS1 when they entered a market which was much less business-savvy and brand-conscious than the current console market. Microsoft have also yet to crack in to the Japanese market, although I sense this wasn't really one of their initial priorities. All the indications a

  • I'm Just Curious (Score:3, Insightful)

    by Slyght ( 784581 ) on Thursday June 10, 2004 @08:21AM (#9385748) Journal
    I'm not trying to flamebait anyone on, but I've noticed people (not just on this newspost) like to say that the Xbox is ruining the PC market because of cross-platform development. Besides Deus Ex: Invisible War and Thief: Deadly Shadows, both of which were developed by Ion Storm mind you, can anybody name another game that was hurt as the result of this? I think people are mistaking Ion Storm's poor choices in development as some sort of nasty plot by Microsoft to cripple the PC market, because they certainly wouldn't want people to go out and buy PC's that run their operating system, heh.
    I don't believe that the Xbox is failing. Just look at E3 this year, and you can see that Xbox exclusives like Halo 2, Burnout 3, Jade Empire, Fable, etc were walking away with a lot of awards, not to mention Xbox Live's success. I'm not trying to say that Xbox is the best system, because I think each of the big three systems has their own strengths, and I own them all. I think it's outrageous to compare the Xbox to the 3DO, though, as to this day I couldn't name you a single game for the 3DO, whereas the average gamer is probably aware of Xbox's lineup.
    • "I don't believe that the Xbox is failing."

      John didn't do a great job in his editorial explaining why it is failing. But it is failing.

      The problem for the Xbox is that it is utterly unprofitable. Microsoft loses about 100 bucks per console. Since it makes only about $7.50 per game, each console user has to buy about 13 new games for Microsoft to only break even. Obviously used games do not count, nor does renting them.

      Some have estimated the Xbox losses to be near a billion dollars. And let's assume
      • I generally agree, the numbers don't look good, but precisely because of this:

        I just want to add, I have nothing against the Xbox. I think it's a great system and I plan on getting one when Doom3 is released

        I believe it's far from over, and for Doom3 also read Half Life 2, Halo 2, and Fable, as obvious blockbusters. Xbox has a very strong lineup for the holiday season, more than just standard sequels that the other two machines have.

        I really believe Microsoft will leverage this in the only way they know

        • I guess I didn't explain myself. The better the Xbox sells, the MORE Microsoft loses. Let's assume that you're right and a billion Xboxes are sold and everyone buys Half Life2, Halo 2, Fable, and Doom3. And let's also assume that Microsoft gets 10 bucks each for each of those games.

          Assuming that's true, Microsoft loses a whopping $60,000,000,000. Yep, if Microsoft sells a BILLION consoles over Christams and if every one of their best games get sold, Microsoft will lose 60 BILLION!!! Even Microsoft doe
          • MS profits on sales of a surprisingly small amount of, well, anything. Think about how much MS makes when you use MediaPlayer, Internet Explorer, etc. MS isn't about selling a bunch of products, they're about controlling the platform. The idea behind the XBox isn't to turn a profit. It's to put a MS platform in as many living rooms that they possibly can. Once they've got that sort of control, then they can start making money. It's not like we haven't seen this before...


            --LordPixie
            • Right now, Microsoft only makes money on two things: Windows and Office. Every other aspect of Microsoft's business loses money. E.g., Xbox, MSN, WinCE, WebTV, etc.

              The only reason Microsoft can support all of these other failures is because Windows and Office has about 80% profit margins. Microsoft uses those HUGE profits to enter into unprofitable fields.

              You may be right, maybe the Xbox2 will not lose money and will start to earn a profit. Maybe by Xbox3 (about 12 years from now) the billion dollar l
              • You think that Microsoft will allow the competition to last for another 12 years? They are selling the XBox at a loss for a reason, to steal marketshare from Sony and Nitendo. They're well on their to doing so and I think "Xbox 2" will be a huge success. The Xbox is doing very well not after having a very poor start and everyone expecting the worst. Now that they have gained all these fans, what do you think the next launch will be like? Very favorable.

                Once Microsoft has strongarmed developers into becomin
                • As I said, you might be right. This could be the first time Microsoft released a profitable product other than Windows or Office. Merely because Microsoft has failed in every other attempt does not mean it has to fail in this attempt.

                  I do know one thing for certain, though, the Xbox2 will NOT have a hard drive. I seriously doubt that Microsoft will be willing to lose money on each console in the next round of the console wars. The Xbox2 will be much leaner, that's for sure.

                • You think that Microsoft will allow the competition to last for another 12 years?

                  The problem is, Microsoft's competition is turning in a healthy profit on their console business. Unless MS can do REALLY aggressive underpricing (which isn't possible as long as they attempt to have the most powerful console on the market), that's not going to change anytime soon.
                • Not going to happen - even in North America.

                  Japan is the key to winning this sector. Microsoft has to seriously break into Japan's game market first, but the Xbox is not ever going to catch fire there. Myabe the Xbox Next, but not this one.

                  But, with Sony in the market, with Nintendo not backing down, and with MS not becoming more geocentric, the game market is still up for grabs... MS has great potential to fail here. And they have before.... many times before.

              • Here's a different way to look at it... (Score:4, Interesting)

                by LordPixie ( 780943 ) on Thursday June 10, 2004 @10:34AM (#9386941) Journal
                And considering how much money Microsoft is losing now, I don't think Microsoft will wait 12 years and will almost certainly give up before then.

                I'd like to draw your attention to this Cringely [pbs.org] article. It's a (long) opinion piece on MS' business model. Two points are made about the way MS works: 1) MS has incentives to increase losses. Yeah, you read that correctly. Without losses to balance off their massive growth in the Office/Windows department, they'd plateau and go nowhere. 2) Microsoft has basically saturated the PC market, and sucked as much profit as humanly possible from computer sales. Thus, they have to move into new markets.

                Keeping the top two points in mind, the X-Box seems to be doing a perfect job of what MS wants. Now, I certainly don't expect you to whole-heartedly agree with the above article, but do at least read it...


                --LordPixie
                • I've already read the article, in fact I read Cringely every Friday. And I agree with the article completely. One, that Microsoft has milked the PC market dry. And two, that Microsoft has to move to different markets.

                  However, I happen to think that Microsoft will NOT win the console market. Essentially Microsoft is in a catch-22 situation with the Xbox. If it fails to sell, Microsoft failed. However, due to the 100 bucks loss on each console, if it succeeds, Microsoft loses even MORE money.

                  Maybe Mic
                  • The last numbers I saw had total game sales pegged at about 4 game sales per year per Xbox sold. Therefore it'd only take them just over 3 years to get to 'break even', assuming a loss of $100 per console (which is a little high) and revenue of $7.50 per game (which is a little low - particularly because it ignores profits as publisher for first and second party games: given the success of their first/party lineup, that's a not-insignificant amount of dough, enough to bump the average)

                    The home and enterta
                    • Every article I've read places Microsoft's per console loss at between $100 to $120. If you can find a different and lower number, I'd like to see it.

                      Also, I've read that Microsoft makes from $5 to $10 per game. If you can find something different and higher, I'd like to see it.

                    • I'm going off the numbers upthread, i never challenged those assumptions. They're entirely in the same ballpark as what you're stating.

                      My only comment on the numbers you just reiterated is: for games for which MS acted as publisher and distributor (1st and 2nd party games) even $10 revenue per box sounds awfully low.
                      And given the number of units sold, a statistically significant number have been first and second party titles, enough to bring up the average.

                      Therefore I figure that a straight average of $7
                    • My only comment on the numbers you just reiterated is: for games for which MS acted as publisher and distributor (1st and 2nd party games) even $10 revenue per box sounds awfully low.

                      Your forgetting retail mark up.

                      It may cost $1 to make the physical form of a $50 game but the retailer/distributor gets around 60% of that. so that leaves 20 bucks of which they must pay that $1 and marketting and developement.
          • Nonsense figures aside, seeing as I was talking about software sales lets say that the usual Christmas spike is in evidence, with a little more on top fuelled by these titles. Still nowhere near a billion, in fact not especially near its current installed base, which you conveniently forgot about. Now what if they buy three out of four of these titles, how do the figures look now?

            When I talk about a strong software lineup, that's exactly what I mean. They make money from the software. People don't buy a ne

        • I believe it's far from over, and for Doom3 also read Half Life 2, Halo 2, and Fable, as obvious blockbusters. Xbox has a very strong lineup for the holiday season, more than just standard sequels that the other two machines have.

          You have just listed 4 games that are nichey products that traditionally have done well in the "PC" market and sold about fairly low number of units. FPS + mmorpg don't have a significant niche in consoles.
          • I believe that's purely because they've never had simultaneous release, or serious attention. Quake 3 got a late release on Dreamcast, and it was a cut-down version of the PC version, Half-Life, a very late release on PS2, a reasonable conversion, but people said it looked dated even by PS2 standards. Halo is the reason many people bought and Xbox, and now they're adding Live code, which should have been in the original. Fable isn't an MMORPG, strictly.

            I suspect the proof will be in the pudding, but the hy

            • The key problem with HL2 and DOOM 3 is that they require high end systems. Only a small percentage of gamers can run them at a decent clip. This reduced their possible market share. Thats always the problem with PC FPS games. The reason why warcraft and starcraft sold so many is that they aimed low technologically and had the expansion bump it up a bit. Quake 3, and a lot of the FPS legends sold slowly due to the small base of users who could run it well. HL2 and DOOM 3 now has a larger base because they pu

              • A lot of people don't care for fps.

                But a lot more people do. Only The Sims has sold more than Half Life on the PC. Halo is the Xbox's biggest seller. Doom 3 and Half Life 2 have been grabbing gaming headlines for months, leaked demos, stolen code. Counter-strike is the most popular online game ever. It's hardly a 'niche' market. Quake, Doom and Half-Life are some of the biggest and most famous franchises in PC gaming.

                Now that a console has finally been observed to be capable of representing the ideas tha

    • can anybody name another game that was hurt as the result of this?

      Bungie was originally a PC (And Mac !) developer. And a damn good one too. (I hope you've all played Myth & Marathon)

      I think the logic behind the 'XBox hurts PC' charge is that MS winds up buying development companies, and makes them XBox only. Like they did with Bungie. That, and the potentially more lucrative market for the XBox takes focus away from PC development.


      --LordPixie
      • If it wasn't for MS we have no idea where Halo or Bungie would be today. I doubt very much they would have got the support they needed from Take 2. They could have been another gaming footnote if it wasn't for the infusion of resources from MS.
    • I don't believe that the Xbox is failing. Just look at E3 this year, and you can see that Xbox exclusives like Halo 2, Burnout 3, Jade Empire, Fable, etc were walking away with a lot of awards, not to mention Xbox Live's success.

      umm.. exclusive means "xbox only" not "xbox and PC only" since Jade empire is ofr the PC as well. Halo two will be eventually. Burnout and fable are most likly excluive but Jade empire is definently not.
      • No, Jade Empire is NOT coming out for the PC. Get your story straight. Also, there are no plans for a PC port of Halo 2. Don't believe me, then check it out yourself - http://jade.bioware.com/
    • For later: Burnout 3 isn't exclusive, it was for PS2 and XBox all along and after EA grabbed them it was anounced for the GC as well.

      Proof: Official site. [eagames.com] The sample box is labeled "Playstation 2".

  • You know you're wrong when (Score:5, Funny)

    by Morgahastu ( 522162 ) <bshel ... fave bands name> on Thursday June 10, 2004 @09:39AM (#9386263) Journal
    You know you're wrong when even Slashdot doesn't agree with your anti-ms bashing.
  • You know, Microsoft takes a lot of heat for crushing the competition.

    Now the XBOX is taking heat for not crushing the competition.

    In my view the XBOX is doing well. I know just as many people with a XBOX as a PS2. Nobody I know has a GameCube (well except me I have all 3 but I'm sick).

    Right now if most people want a new game system they pick the XBOX, the PS2 is seen as being "old" and the Gamecube is not seen at all.

    Either way I hope there is enough market for all 3 and that the games keep coming.
    • Right now if most people want a new game system they pick the XBOX, the PS2 is seen as being "old" and the Gamecube is not seen at all.

      and the proof for this is where? Anicdotally. all the black guys I know have an xbox, ps2. All the white guys have a PS2 some have game cubes, and equal number of xboxes. All the asian guys I know have a PS2 and a GC. Almost everybody has a GB SP too. Common denominator: everybody has a ps2. Now the ps2 sales haved ropped. however the games sales haven't dropped as much. I
    • If the Gamecube is not seen at all then why has it sold more units than the XBox?

      Just because you and your friends don't like the Cube doesn't mean it's not being seen. Just not seen by you.

      Agreed on the last sentence: more games = more fun for all.
  • "Microsoft has over $56 billion in the bank and should be dominating the console market. "

    That just goes to show, you can't have a monopoly without a market that agrees with you.

  • XBox Endangered But Not Dying (Score:4, Insightful)

    by blueZhift ( 652272 ) on Thursday June 10, 2004 @02:25PM (#9390233) Homepage Journal
    I turned my XBox on last night and it works just fine. Admittedly, it has been neglected of late as I've spent a lot of time on my PS2 playing FFXI. That aside, the XBox is not dying yet. Instead, the real threat comes from within Microsoft itself where the company has shown a history of cut and run on anything outside of Windows and Office. It's hard to argue the numbers though, since right now at least PC gaming may make more money for MS than XBox gaming since PC gaming must be driving some PC sales which of course means Windows and Office sales.

    But, if they can come up with the games to drive sales in Europe and Japan, then things could turn around dramatically. I think (with no evidence whatsoever) that internal politics may be keeping them from doing what must be done in the way of aquiring local development talent for the overseas markets and of course marketing effectively there. There's no secret to what Sony did to become the dominant player in the console market. Microsoft just has to decide that this is a game they want to win. I think the future of the company depends on this more than they would like to admit given the rise of Linux and OSS solutions on the desktop.

  • What's wrong with this picture? Microsoft has over $56 billion in the bank and should be dominating the console market.
    I always cringe when I see somebody equating money with intelligence, status or whatever. The fact is that MS is Johnny-come-lately in the console gaming market and they have to play catch up with entrenched big name competitors. Having good titles available on your platform is more a function of branding and getting to market first than the size of MS's wallet.

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