Analysts Predict Tough Christmas For Game Publishers

Thanks to Gamesindustry.biz for its article regarding predictions of a tough 2004 holiday season for all videogame publishers, as an analyst report from Banc of America Securities claims "competition in the games market will be much more intense than last year", and argues that "some games will just not receive any shelf space from retailers, and initial shipments of titles will be very low, even by historical standards." The report goes on to highlight some non-specific specifics: "We have very low expectations for games of other developers with less-known brands... including Acclaim, Midway (except Mortal Kombat), Atari, Eidos, Vivendi (apart from Half-Life 2, if it is released) and even Microsoft (apart from Halo 2)... Expect many disasters this holiday." Is there really a reason for game creators to worry about what sales Santa will bring them?

I consider myself a gamer, but...

[Kris_J]

...I'm not currently intending to purchase any more games this year. I still play Diablo II about once a week and I'm very much enjoying Sacred with full knowledge that I've got plenty of class, skill and difficulty combinations to explore.

Christmas will most likely by DVD season, not games season. Newly released box sets of SciFi TV shows will feature highly as well as "classic" movies like Office Space.

Publish games during the summer season!

[Senator Bozo]

Hollywood, for example, has its big summer season when all of the blockbusters are released nearly back to back. In fact, releases are even scheduled around dates set by competing films.

So why don't video game publishers try to capitalize on the summer months, when the market isn't flooded with competitors and people seem eager to spend money on entertainment?

E.g.: Blizzard publish Warcraft III on July 3rd, 2002 and WC3: TFT on July 1st, 2003, and each sold several million copies within weeks of their respective release date.

Re:Publish games during the summer season!

[Dark Nexus]

When you think about it, most younger gamers get their games as gifts, generally for birthdays and christmas. So for that target audience, christmas is the right time for most releases.

My guess is that publishers are still stuck on that "games are for kids" thought when it comes to release dates, even if they're over that for content. For any target audience that buys their own games, spread the releases around a bit! Some more in the summer, some around late February or early March for that late winter drag, a few in mid or late september, for those who have grown tired of their purchases from early June...

Re:Christmas Madness

[jennifer_l]

Publishers seem to think that because lots of people buy games at Christmas it means that lots of people will buy THEIR games. It's just not the case. However we're seeing more and more games released throughout the year, but with fairly bad sales - because there just isn't that impetus to buy, buy, buy! Releasing a fairly low-cost game around about the January sales might work, when people are actively hunting through the bargain bins, but a full price blockbuster without a "hook" to get the consumer buying it (and so MANY of these hooks are movie tie-ins, or sequels!) just isn't gonna cut it at christmas. I'm surprised that this is "news" -- but then previous years have seen a lot more innovation and a lot less reliance on piggybacking off big names and sequels, I guess.

On a related note

[Slyght]

Is it just me, or has anybody been noticing that everything's just been going bad for developers nowadays? I mean, it seems like every other day you go on Slashdot or Gamespot and there's an article about a development studio getting shutdown, or a publisher laying workers off, or a company's earnings report lower than last year, etc. People always talk about the video game being a growing industry, but all it seems to be is shrinking. This is very discouraging to somebody such as myself who is in the game development industry, because it feels like this industry is going to collapse any second.

Diablo 2

[vehn23]

I definitely got my money's worth from this title but I regretfully bought it for my early-60's father a few years ago. He still plays it 10-20 hours a week. Single player. Ugh. I remember having to go to his house and beat a (pre LOD) multishot Bremm Sparkfist for him because he was stuck on him for days. Good times..

Re:Rhetorical or redundant?

[Anonymous Coward]

Any game coming out by Xmas would be 2/3 through development by now likely with screenshots and early betas shown to magazines for previews.
CRAP TITLES WILL SELL. Un-crap titles without heavy marketing might not.