Xbox 360 Launch to Face Several Hurdles 428
JamesO writes "Microsoft's J Allard has said that the Xbox 360 will be released in differing versions over the next five years. "It's something we're not ready to announce yet," he said. "I don't think it's a one-size-fits-all [approach] over the next five-year horizon." Relatedly JamesO writes "Microsoft is saying that anywhere up to 40 games could be released for the Xbox 360 during its launch period, but which of those will make or break the console's launch? Pro-G choose their ten most important Xbox 360 launch games. Not the ten best launch games, but the most important for the success of the Xbox 360."
This is an awful idea. (Score:5, Insightful)
The average parent isn't going to know what to pick for their kid, and faced with a choice they might just turn around and pick up a console they know will be able to support any game on the system.
More experienced/older gamers might look at the inferior versions of the system as worthless, and will simply wait until the maxed out system comes down to a reasonable price. A good analogy would be with computers. The average slashdotter isn't going to go buy a celeron notebook (lets go with plain old celeron, when they sucked) when there are vastly superior Pentium M notebooks available. They will wait for the better system's price to come down. Maybe not such a great analogy, but hopefully it gets the point across.
Hardware (Score:4, Insightful)
MS Flight sim is an example from the PC world. When first released, there's no hardware which can render smooth frame rates with all settings maxed out. As the hardware improves over time, the visuals can be pushed higher and higher until... the next version comes out and we start all over.
No hard drive (Score:5, Insightful)
Comment removed (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Okay, that's it... (Score:3, Insightful)
Everything that MS ANNOUNCED would be in the system is still in the system. If you were so dumb as to bite on hype from random "gaming press" sources, well, why is it MS's fault that you don't know any better?
Re:Skip TFA (Score:5, Insightful)
Same goes to Perfect Dark Zero being the top game on that list... Well, I surely love FPS, as most americans and europeans. But what about the asian market? That list is way too "western world"-focused IMO. And we all know what is the whole point behind Xbox 360: take over Playstation's home market.
Re:Quick survey (Score:3, Insightful)
Relates directly (Score:5, Insightful)
Microsoft's J Allard has said that the Xbox 360 will be released in differing versions over the next five years.
That's several hurdles right there. The story summary didn't say anyone but Microsoft was actually putting the hurdles in front of them.
Relax, 360 will most likely include hard drive (Score:3, Insightful)
Nailing your own coffin (Score:5, Insightful)
We all remember how successful extensions to your console are(Though the jaguar CD was a great add on , it was expensive and the console was struggling at the time anyway ) .
MS in an attempted to create an extendable console
People like consoles because they are simple to use
They certainly don't want to waste much money on upgrades for it and to start having to worry about requirements
"I don't think it's a one-size-fits-all [approach] over the next five-year horizon."
People like consoles in a One size fits all
Re:Hell for consumers (Score:2, Insightful)
Not only that, but one of the big benefits of console systems is that it usually simplifies things. On the computer, I have to check a game's memory, CPU, and video card requirements before I can buy it. For the PS2, I just have to look in the PS2 section.
Granted, it's not rocket science, but if they're going to radically change the hardware, maybe they should just release a new system.
And I can't say I envy the MS tech support people. "But it said XBOX 360", "Oh, sorry sir, that game is for XBOX 360 service pack 2" "Oh. Well can I have my money back?" "Oh, haha... yea, about that... um no." Click.
Guarantees I won't be an Xbox 360 early adopter (Score:5, Insightful)
I got to see the Xbox 360 in closed doors demos at E3 this year, and I have to say despite the ringing hype endorsement of the PS3 over a prerendered demo (Killzone) which everyone on the floor as developers could name who created it - the Xbox 360 really did blow me away technically and the games were impressive looking and desirable - especially the new EA sports iterations (not to say anything of their gameplay and the company's lack of innovation).
But this latest news really puts me off bothering to pick one up soon. I recently had a ton of games stolen and went to eBay to load up on games I lost in the theft that were out of print. When it came time to find all the titles for the Xbox, there were very, very few I even wanted to bother replacing.
The current lineup, Call of Duty 2 excepted (which looked exceptional at E3 running in a limited capacity), does nothing to make me jones for Xbox 360. It still is a box dedicated towards dumbed down PC games played on a television. For now, I'll wait and see if an HD-DVD model ever comes out. I'll pick up a PS3 and use it as my Blu-Ray player.
Re:Skip TFA (Score:3, Insightful)
Super Mario Brothers 2
Grand Theft Auto 3
Duke Nukem 3D
Of course, for each of these, there are 1000 sequels with nothing at all new. Can anyone think of any other games for this list? I am sure there are plenty more.
You know so far... (Score:5, Insightful)
So yeah, hey Sony and MS: fire your marketing departments and put the money towards game development. Everyone already knows that your next gen shit is coming, shut up about it and give us games that make it a worthwhile purchase.
Obvious development (Score:3, Insightful)
Theory: After the PS3 is released (heck, while they are developing PS3 launch titles) game developers will scream to Microsoft they need the storage space HD-DVD offers to port the mammoth games they have just developed over to the XBox (and even then they may have a to cut and/or heavily compress some content to fit in the smaller space the HD-DVD format offers).
How can anyone really doubt this will not be true? How can anyone even hold a moment of doubt that at the very least a 2nd model with an HD-DVD drive will be released, and some game in the future (probably from EA) will require it? The only reason you are seeing Madden is that they will have another version next year anyway and this one will get the engine kinks worked out.
I think the only real surprise going forward would be Microsoft deciding to go with Blu-Ray instead of HD-DVD. But I just don't think they could swallow thier pride enough to do so, they are driven to be seen as the market leader.
Re:Hardware (Score:5, Insightful)
If you were a developer what market would you choose? The market that your game will run on the most consoles (base 360) or the market that is likely just a small fraction of the overall maximum market?
Your comparison the PC world is completely absurd in that PCs are constantly upgraded and evolving whereas the typical console is a single target that never moves. It is an awful lot easier to make a game for one console with fixed specs than the hundreds and thousands of possible PC hardware configurations. It should be no secret that most PC games these days are RTS, first person shooters, a few RPGs here and there and of course, the simulator. Not much variety to be found. A great deal of developer shops have fallen quite recently due to poor sales in the PC market. Most kids these days seem to prefer the TV versus the monitor and I hate to say it, but I would imagine that a large number of computer game players are also software pirates given the ease of downloading an ISO and mounting it with the convieniently free daemon tools, whereas on the console you have to mod the console or pay to have someone do it for you and that is really out of the grasp of a lot of people.
I don't honestly think that Microsoft is choosing a good plan here. It is better to have a unified market than one that is potentially fractured. If you make a console that much better than the original and manage to convince a foolish developer to produce games that only run on the newer console, then why bother at all when instead you could have just waited a few years and released a whole new console with a slew of upgrades? Oh wait. That is precisely what they do now.
If there were a market for upgradeable consoles, it would have surely materialized by now. I think that the average gamer cares far less about the platform and a great deal more about the actual games themselves. IF you want to win a console race you need a lot of killer apps like GTA3 and the first Xbox had about 3 triple A titles and that just isn't going to cut it.
Re:Obvious development (Score:2, Insightful)
In the last 6 years, I have seen little to no increase in storage demand from my games. For instance I'll use the ever bloated RPG genre, specifically Bioware's line as an example:
(Full Installs)
Baldur's Gate 1 (circa 1998): 500 megabytes
Baldur's Gate 2 (circa 2000): 1.2 gigs
NeverWinter Nights (Circa 2002): 2.1 gigs
Knights of the Old Republic (2003): 4.0 gigs
So about every 2 years, the largest games on the planet double in size. Two years from now, Bioware will probably have to release it's massive upcoming RPG on two DVDs for the 360, or simply employ a few compression algorithms on it's discs. But there is clearly no 45 GB demand in the forseeable future. DVD games are going to more than sufficient during this next generation.
Makes more sense than you think (Score:3, Insightful)
"By selling the system hardware and software seperately, we are allowing the system a much longer lifespan, so you don't have to buy a new console every year! Instead, you can just buy the hardware and software upgrades and have a "brand new" system!"
This isn't that different from the DVD playback "add-on" for the original XBox. Microsoft's merely seeing how far they can take it one generation at a time.
Did you notice... (Score:4, Insightful)
Not a single new, original idea?
Microsoft tried to avoid calling it "XBOX 2" at all cost. But it is just that. A 2nd grade sequel to XBOX, with more fireworks and special effects, most of which you've seen already, and nothing to really enjoy.
Re:Obvious development (Score:3, Insightful)
A full install of Myst IV comes to 7gb. Myst games have always pushed the storage boundary, and even THEY can't fill up dual layer DVD. And you think that a DVD just won't cut it? What kind of crack are you smoking?
If, by some miracle some company produces more than 9gb of content for their game, it isn't exactly difficult to put it onto a second disc (recall FFVII). As long as the disc doesn't have to be swapped every 3 hours it isn't a big deal.
I think the only real surprise going forward would be Microsoft deciding to go with Blu-Ray instead of HD-DVD. But I just don't think they could swallow thier pride enough to do so, they are driven to be seen as the market leader.
They'll go with whichever one becomes the market leader; pride has nothing to do with it. They aren't, however, going to delay their launch or add $100 to the final cost of their machine in a wild gamble guessing what the final standard will end up being.
$20 says that the system won't support playing games on that media, just movies.
Just plain dumb... (Score:1, Insightful)
Now you've got this "several versions" scheme -- why would anyone buy an XBOX 360 at launch (esp. since the launch titles don't shout out "Buy me!") when the PS3, or a better version of the XBOX 360 would be coming out a few months later? By then the "top 10" games will have likely been priced down into the 19.99 range, too. Even if you only consider one new revision (say one that comes right after Sony's PS3 debut so MS can counter with a much-better and new 360), the fact that Sony is [hoping] to launch only a few months later would mean that most people are likely going to just wait and see during that time. I highly doubt the sales for the first XBOX 360 will be all that spectacular.
To be honest, if I knew that by waiting a few months I'd get a better version of , I'd just wait and make do with what I have. My current game consoles are more than capable of keeping me entertained in the meantime.
Re:Backflip (Score:1, Insightful)
Unless you need a new car immediately, you would probably wait.
Re:Relax, 360 will most likely include hard drive (Score:3, Insightful)
If they have to write games as if a hard drive wasn't there, you loose at lot of the advantages of the hard drive.
Sure KotoR saves took up loads of space, but at least the game let you save anytime. Hard drives let you get away from the irritating save points, unless of course you can't rely on the hard drive being there.
And how is content download going to work? No more extra level, patches or bonus content on Live? If you can't rely on a hard drvie, where do you keep this stuff? The memomry card?
Re:Okay, that's it... (Score:4, Insightful)
Then you, sir, are a muppet.
Sorry, but there it is.
(Were you not around to see the PS2 demo videos? Surely no-one would take a console launch at face value after that!)
Re:Hardware (Score:4, Insightful)
Yes, and this is true even of simple things like special controllers. The steering wheel controller is a case in point. I can't ever remember a driving game that supported a wheel controller well. It's usually easier to drive with the standard controller - the wheel is just frustrating.
The reason of course, is that the developers don't spend much time on supporting steering wheel controllers, because less than 1% (figure off the top of my head, but am pretty sure it's accurate) of the market has one of these controllers...so why bother? You can spend the time making the driving experience with the standard controller much better, because that's what everyone has.
It's a bit like making a game that you can only play with Xbox Live. You've instantly cut your market down to 10% of what it could have been.
Good heavens (Score:5, Insightful)
- Microsoft is making sure game-developers treat the HD as optional.
- Seeing as the HD is optional, those who do not want the functionality will be offered the opportunity to purchase the console at a lower price.
- Microsoft may offer an HD-DVD drive in the Xbox 360 in later revisions (SPECULATION: to drive sales in the latecomer camp who are intrigued by the added bonus of playing HD-DVD content.)
Now here's what wasn't stated, but what I believe:
- Consoles are loss leaders for the major manufacturers. It is not desireable to sell hardware repeatedly at a loss. So what? Microsoft isn't going to encourage people to re-buy something that actually costs them money. Instead they will push for software titles to work on every Xbox 360 so that the maximum number of consumers can pay them licensing fees.
- Microsoft is going to (at minimum) STROGNLY encourage all software vendors not to code to the hard drive or the HD-DVD drive (when it arrives). While such coding may occur (FFXI will almost surely require a hard drive) it will not be the norm. They want the Xbox you bought on launch day without the HD to continue to get them licensing money through your continued purchase of software (see above).
- Confusingly, while many people replace the 's' in Microsoft with a '$', they accuse the same company whose success is so obvious of being incompetent at selling things. Whatever you want to argue about Microsoft, it is hard to argue that they are bad at making money. To that end, please re-read the above two points. They will not restrict their income artificially.
- Consumers LIKE new hardware revs. How many folks bought that cute miniature PS2? Enough to show that a re-rev of hardware (with different functionality) can be accepted by users. There's also the wild success of the Gameboy Advance (and SP) to this end. Did all your peripherals work with the SP? No. How many people still 'upgraded' from the Advance to the SP? Lots! It offered a compelling reason to upgrade, without breaking backwards compatibility for what matters (the games).
My conclusion: I'll buy an Xbox 360 on launch day because my lust for a new console is high, and because I am confident that the 360 I buy will work with games released until the Xbox 1080 (or whatever). If you do not believe that games will work then you are welcome to wait it out. A lot of people I know hesitated on huying an Xbox because it was a "second class" console to them. Then they ended up buying one because it had a few compelling games that were "must play" to them. If you don't want the 360 at launch then don't buy one, but don't be too shocked if there is comeplling (to you) content released that is Xbox exclusive and you end up wanting one in the end.
(Hint: Ninja Gaiden is not Halo, Forza is not Halo, do not reply to this with smarmy comments about Halo being the only popular exclusive game for the Xbox because it isn't, unless you want the standard "anti Microsoft" Slashdot karma over being factually correct.)
Re:Okay, that's it... (Score:2, Insightful)
Consoles are supposed to be closed systems - with a "write code once and run on every console" philosophy. The changes or revisions to consoles in the past were mostly minor changes to the bios and the run-time-libs ensured that the same code written previously still worked. The hardware setup was always constant.
Now with the thought of having optional features like a hard-drive (this is not like having an optional vibrating gamepad or not), this means a huge hurdle for the developers and designers of games. Now you have to ensure that your title works with a number of different hardware setups, you also have to hope that future revisions to the xbox360 won't break your title and kick it off the market (or give you numerous nights of blood,sweat and tears).
Welcome to the PC-world of compability issues. I admit, to the end-consumer, the issues have soften over the years. For us developers, these compability issues are still subtle and can introduce some severe headaches.
regards,
Re:Good heavens (Score:5, Insightful)
Really? Nintendo never sold the Gamecube for a loss and Sony only take a loss in the first few shipments. Yup, sounds like a loss leader to me. Oh, wait...
"Consumers LIKE new hardware revs."
No, they don't. At best they're apathetic, at worst they worry it'll make the revision they own obsolete.
"How many folks bought that cute miniature PS2?"
I'd say it's pretty certain that very few people who had a working PS2 bought the miniature PS2.
Re:Okay, that's it... (Score:5, Insightful)
LOL!
Oh, stop, you're killing me!
Hoooo! That's a good one.
Please see the list of "Features" that Widows Longhorn, now Windows Vista was going to have at launch.
Every time they pushed back the release date, they dropped a few features.
The first claims for what Longhorn would have constituted an operating system that would trample Linux and MAC OS X into dust. Those features have dropped off one by one over the years. It's now clear that Windows Vista will be little more than XP with a few cosmetic changes and tighter security.
This is standard Microsoft behavior though. Look at all their product releases. Look at the pre-release press. Announcing Vaporware and pumped up lists of features is a common practice for them, as a way to stifle or destroy the competition.
Re:Hardware (Score:3, Insightful)
Personally though, I don't see how a next gen console can do with an HD, unless it is a cynical marketing ploy to sell more memory cards. The fact is that without a HD, the console is useless for multimedia (convergence - what's that?), games load slower without caching, and you can't download extras or firmware updates from the internet.
Harddrives do cost money and perhaps no HD is seen as an obvious way of slashing the costs, but it's going to hobble the platform if some people have drives and others do not. Games will take the path of least resistance and not use the tech at all, or use it in a trivial manner. Like you say, the PS2 harddrive is worse than frigging useless (except ironically for piracy), partly because no game bothers to support it.
To All the Naysayers... (Score:4, Insightful)
It only needs one game -- next-gen Madden. That alone will trump all else, sell systems in droves, and will do so worldwide (because apparently you people have chosen to ignore the fact that Madden outsells even FIFA wordlwide). Madden will drive or break the launch. If it's there, it's a hit. If it's not, there could be trouble...
You don't believe me? Wander in to a Best Buy or Gamestop right now and hang around. Watch the kids and adults my age come in. Watch them come in, not even browse, go straight for the Madden box, buy, and leave. Watch kids wander in, pick up the Madden box, struggle with trying to decide to blow their hard-earned cash on it when they maybe can't even afford, AND STILL PICK IT UP EVERY SINGLE TIME.
There are no more-devoted game series fans out there. They all buy largely the same game EVERY SINGLE YEAR and play it to death, and a next-gen leap will only garner even more attention and sales than normal. And believe me, EA will roll out Der Hypen Machine for it in full force, so everyone will know when Madden launches.
People call in sick to work the day they know Madden launches. Peopel rearrange life schedules aroudn Madden launching so they hae plenty of time to go buy it and then play. Yes, it's that big.
Madden alone will make or break the 360 launch. because believe me, nobody cares about Perfect Dark...
in their defense... (Score:5, Insightful)
Madden? WTF, loser (Score:2, Insightful)
You KNOW what will make or break the Xbox 360... Halo 3.
(and no, I don't like Halo, it's over-hyped by console fanboys who never played a FPS on a computer)
Re:Skip TFA (Score:5, Insightful)
CESA industry sales figures for Japanese publishers/manufacturers from last year:
Year - Software / Hardware : Total
2004 - $4.28 billion / $4.03 billion : $8.31 billion
And by region:
Year - Japan/Overseas : Total
2004 - $3.06 billion / $5.16 billion : $8.22 billion
The total North American video game market had $9.9 billion in sales over the same period.
Now, you can say that $9.9 billion in sales is more than three times $3.06 billion, but a couple things:
a) $3.06 billion is still no small chunk of change
b) That's in a country with half the population and about 1/20 the land mass (meaning distribution and marketing is much, much cheaper)
c) That's just one country, vs. Canada/US/Mexico for North American market numbers
d) $5 billion worth of Japanese software/hardware was sold overseas, meaning a large chunk of that North American market number is made up of Japanese games and systems
e) The total Japanese game industry is nearly the same size as the North American game industry in total dollar sales (in 2003, it was actually larger).
For example, the Saturn, a console made by a Japanese company, did pretty well in Japan yet tanked everywhere else. The end result of that was creating a situation where Sega ran out of money to compete.
And the same thing would have happened to Microsoft - with a successful console in the US and Europe but not Japan - if they did not have billions of dollars from their operating system business to rely on. They have lost billions on the Xbox. Part of the reason for that is approximately 33% of the sales they envisioned never materialized, because the system tanked so hard in Japan. They literally have only two of the three markets they thought they would.
I think you're underestimating the importance of Japan to the overall video game market. No system can be a financial success these days without being successful in Japan, in addition to the other markets. Japan is a huge cash cow - it is a much more profitable market than either the US or Europe, which are both nightmares of marketing and distribution for various reasons (different languages, long distances, political borders, cultures, etc.).