PSP To Increase U.S. Lead Over DS

Next Generation has a piece on an analyst's prediction that Sony's PSP will gain more ground on the Nintendo DS, here in the states, over the next five years. From the article: "SIG has compared year-by-year sales and estimates for the first five years of each machine's life, using sell-in and factory shipments. It points out that in its first year both PSP and DS managed around 13 million units each, with DS slightly ahead. Year two cumulative stats give PSP 25 million over DS' 22 million. In Year Three the difference rises to ten million (38m to 28m). In Year Four, PSP's lead has stretched to 15 million and to 20 million by Year Five." Though the PSP is now leading in the U.S., the DS is still king of the mountain in Japan.

I 3 mine

[Fr05t]

I got a PSP in November and I love it. Great for watching movies, listening to mp3s, playing of favorite games (emulated). It might not be for everyone, but I've really enjoyed mine.

Variety and depth of games?

[lpangelrob]

Either SIG has a magic crystal ball, or the killer PSP games I haven't heard about (especially the super killer ones to be released on 5 years) will kick the DS around the curb. Seeing how the whole PSP movies thing didn't exactly tide over the country (as opposed to the, oh, I dunno... video iPod?).

In the meantime, I hear that Mario Kart DS is doing surprisingly well.

Re:DS is my choice

[MobileTatsu-NJG]

"While they are both fun pieces of hardware in their own respect. I just have a thing for Nintendo and the fact that they still make games that are just fun. This is the same reason I prefer to have a Gamecube over other consoles and will probably buy a Revolution. I just like fun games."

Boy I hear that. I had a PSP for a short period of time. Even though I was having fun with Liberty City Stories, the machine still felt very much like a gadget. (as opposed to a game machine.) I ended up buying another DS for my girlfriend and a copy of Mario Kart. You mentioned just liking having games that are fun... I hear ya, man. Although I am getting called 'bastard' a lot these days. ;)

Can't let you do that, Starfox.

[Stu L Tissimus]

Something that I have to point out about this article - It specifically states that Sony has sold 13m PSPs in the US. Sony hasn't released any info as pertains to PSP sales within the last three months. They've only said that they've shipped 10m PSPs to retailers sometime in December. Either thye have insider info, or the analysts are pulling this out of their ass. I'll assume it's the latter.

Am I misreading this?

[iainl]

The DS and PSP have both only been out for roughly a year. So this is really saying that the DS is ahead of the PSP here in reality-land, but some random analyst predicts that the PSP will win in America in the end.

Based on? Well, based on the fact that they refuse to believe that Sony could lose, it would seem.

and that's a big problem

[muel]

Everything you just lauded is bad news for publishers seeking to make a profit off PSP games. Why should third parties pump resources into PSP development if their title has to compete against UMD movies, mp3s, uploaded MPGs and (to a lesser but still decent extent) homebrew apps for a PSP owner's attention? Lots of talk has been made about system sales, but the bigger story is software sales; with this in mind, the DS is much more publisher-friendly, and that, more than anything, will tell the tale of which gaming system succeeds more. Sure, Sony is selling a slick piece of hardware, but if they're gonna recoup from a loss-per-unit-sold, that'll come from UMD movie profits, not game licensing.

Got both DS is my choice

[monopole]

Got both a PSP and a DS. I use the DS (and my GBA micro) a lot more, even for watching movies. The four factors involved are battery life, memory stick cost, size and system fragility. The DS has an incredible battery life which is crucial when traveling and the micro still beats the PSP. The DS video solution the Play Yan uses cheap SD flash which is also supported on many of my other gadgets, on the other hand the MS Pro Duo flash is twice as expensive for the same memory size. The GBA micro which shares the movie player with the DS is small enough to fit on my belt and be used anywhere. Finally the PSP is big, fragile and more likely to be stolen, making a poor choice for travel.

Not to diss the great screen on the PSP, but the gamboy screen is quite sufficent.

Analyst: DS will beat PSP

[Jerf]

Noted Slashdot analyst "Jerf" has analyzed the portable market, and has determined that the DS will beat the PSP in the US. Jerf points out that in its first year both PSP and DS managed around 13 million units each, with DS slightly ahead. Year two cumulative stats give DS 25 million over the PSP's 22 million. In Year Three the difference rises to ten million (38m to 28m). In Year Four, the DS' lead has stretched to 15 million and to 20 million by Year Five.

When asked for evidence for his claims, he replied: "What, we need evidence and reasons? What, are you a Communist or something?"

(Actually, the report may or may not be useful. Who can tell, since we don't seem to have a link to it. But the article is useless trash, and if I had to guess, this study does sound suspiciously paid-for, if you get my drift.)

Re:I 3 mine

[Austerity Empowers]

I like mine too, but:
- The games are too expensive
- The UMD format pisses me off: I already have DVD's, I don't want to buy the same movie twice
- The lack of USB storage support infuriates me...I refuse to buy yet another memory device

So while it's a great piece of hardware, and there's lots I can do with it, from Sony's perspective there's no way they can make money from me, they've priced themselves out of the game.

But still, it's a damn nice toy.

Re:when did the psp outsell the ds?

[Anonymous Coward]

It hasn't outsold the Nintendo DS for more than a couple of weeks at a time; and may never outsell the DS.

Unfortunately (for Sony fans) Sony is demonstrating an understanding of the market on a much worse level than they had with either the Playstation or PS2; at the same time Nintendo is demonstrating an understanding of the market at a much higher level than they have since the SNES.

Basically Sony thinks that people want a (3rd rate) MP3 player and a (2nd rate) Portable DVD player at a higher price than both of the components would cost together; on top of that their games are middle of the road, boring ports/clones/sequels of PS2 games. On the other hand Nintendo has focused on producing a low cost gaming system; their games are demonstrating a reasonably high quality and originality level for a new platform.

Pretty soon both systems will have price cuts, the Nintendo DS will be at a price level where it is gift friendly for most families, many people can purchase it on a whim, and small children/young teens can easily save up for one; the PSP will still be a pretty large investment for most gamers. Basically, the Nintendo DS will increase it's market dominance when it hits the mass-market price range well before the PSP.

With the price of some PSP games...

[unclethursday]

I don't own any handheld. Just saying this now. I do have a GameBoy Player for my GC, but I have a total of 2 games for it.

But, I checked out some of the PSP titles last night. And I was appalled to see that some of the prices for them were $50.

$50 for a HANDHELD game? No thank you. $40 is a bit much for a hand held game, IMHO. $25-$30 I can deal with, maybe an occasional $35 here and there-- were I to be a handheld game player. But the PSP games all started around $40 with few exceptions (some older games were down to $30), and some of the newest games were $50.

Sorry, if the pricing on PSP games stays like this, I can't see the PSP gaining much of a lead, if any, over the coming years. Handheld games are generally shorter than their console counterparts/cousins. They generally as not as fully featured as their console cousins. But I'd be God damned if I was going to spend as much on a hand held game as I am spending for a full console game if I owned a handheld system.

The system is $250. Start adding in games at $50 a pop, and I'd rather just wait for all the next gen consoles to come out and get the game there. The handheld gaming market is driven from pick up and play games, and some long RPGs, that you don't spend a lot of money on but get tons of enjoyment out of. $50 for handheld games, no matter what publisher put them out, is simply too much money.

With all the added risk you take with your handheld systems (dropping/breaking, losing, etc.) and the games, the price of the PSP and its games is just too high to keep it viable in the handheld market for too long. Consoles generally sit in one place, and don't move, so they don't have the same risk factors associated with them. And we've been paying $50 for those games for years. Until the PSP, no one was paying $50 for a handheld game... and, frankly, it's a gamble I think Sony and the publishers attempting to milk the handheld market buyers are going to lose.

Re:when did the psp outsell the ds?

[Anonymous Coward]

Until you also point out research, development, manufacturing, and marketing costs, you have just displayed that it is YOU who does not understand math.

Consider, from your seat at the Sony table:

  - The PSP hardware is estimated to sell at a considerable loss, whereas the DS hardware is estimated to sell at a profit.

  - Much in the same way that PS2 games are KNOWN to be more expensive to develop than GBA games, PSP games are estimated to be more expensive to develop than DS games.

  - Your comparison includes software sales that favor the PSP (4 units vs. 2 units for the DS). This is misleading, and I hope it's not intentional. There are multiple multi-million selling DS titles, both worldwide and per region. Overall software sales on the PSP are not even close to being in the same league.

Math with misleading numbers is worthless, unless it is intended to mislead. Poor math (ignoring significant variables) is simply unjustifiable, and damn if any self-respecting scientist is going to let that slide.