PlayStation 3 May Play Too Much 367
Businessweek has a piece looking at the PlayStation 3, worrying that Sony is confusing the consumer with all of the technology it's trying to work into the console. From the article: "Some question whether Sony is trying to cram too much into the new box. The PS3 is expected to cost $350 to $400. While it has the potential to be a megahit, Sony's message might get muddled in the process of going after too broad a market, says Deutsche Securities analyst Takashi Oya. 'It would be difficult to sell PS3 initially as anything other than a game machine,' Oya says. Sony declined to comment on such concerns."
Why not? (Score:3, Interesting)
I'd be clamoring for a $600 cell phone that plays music, watches video, manages my schedule, a 12" widescreen display... See my point here? Number one, we've tried the everything-to-everybody-devices before. They usually don't do that great.
Number two, it'll be hard to get the average non-gaming best buy shopper in the HDTV section to take notice of the PS3 over there in the 'kids' gaming section. They've got the PS3 name. Playstation = games. As of right now, Playstation != next gen HD movie content. It's possible, but they've got to get it out there.
Give my dad a reason to even LOOK at a ps3. He's a HD connoisseur like anybody else, but the thought of getting a PS3 wouldnt' even go through his mind.
Re:It'll grow into itself. (Score:5, Interesting)
If they're gonna get on in every living room, marketeing it as the next gen HD movie format, they're gonna have to sell it to my mom and dad too. I don't know anybody's mom and dad that watch movies on their PSP. You see the difference in scale i'm talking about?
Re:Too Broad A Market? (Score:2, Interesting)
Re:It'll grow into itself. (Score:5, Interesting)
> before the consumers were ready for it.
The Dreamcast was nothing special. I know there are always a few people who say "No, I liked $game" but it just didn't inspire people to buy it. But they certainly didn't fail to buy it because they were afraid it would do too much.
There's "costs too much". The PS3 might do alot of stuff, but the problem at the mo with Xboxs and the like is that they only really add `playing games` to a list of things which you can already do on a £30/$50 DVD, but they charge ten times the cost of that DVD player to do it. Unless you're a hardened gamer, or very well off, that's just really terrible value for money.
Doesn't Matter. (Score:2, Interesting)
I'm not saying it's gonna be a bad box - it's probably going to be great, which the Playstation 2 NEVER was. I'm saying that worrying that their aim is too broad just seems a little silly. I'm also saying that many Sony fans will pay too much for their console just because it's Sony.
Yes I know that history is littered with failed console companies, and that todays leader is tomorrows gutter-dweller, but Sony has some kind of weird critical mass going in terms of market dominance and mindshare. Couple that with a general distrust of Microsoft, and the resulting scenario is such that I wouldn't worry about anything mentioned in the article.
Backwards compatability (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:It'll grow into itself. (Score:3, Interesting)
Sure, Xbox 360 and PS3 will probably both be more powerful, but
At the end of the day Sony might do well, but I'm genuinely unexcited about the PSP. Sure it's pretty bling-bling, but it's basically a PS2. Where's the fun in that?
Sony's strategy does look good on paper, but I don't think they'll make it. To be honest I hope they don't, because when it comes to DRM and so on, they practically make Microsoft look like saints.
Re:It'll grow into itself. (Score:5, Interesting)
Remember the Apple Newton, the TiVo, and plenty of other things that came to market before their time??
The thing is that the Playstation has a following for game developers and gamers. So long as it has good playable games it will do fine. If the other features work as advertised (or better), then that is icing on the cake. Only a few of us
If it works well with slideshows of pictures from a digital camera, and works well with HTPC kind of stuff, then that is only free advertising to sell more of these boxes. If it sucks at playing games, no matter how good the extra stuff is, it will fail. If they are able to pull off all of the extra bells and whistles, I see no problem with it selling or confusing the user, and it will only be an extra plus to the system in general.
I don't even play video games, and I'm planning on buying the 2nd rev of the PS3 when it comes out. The graphics and capabilities of the thing seem amazing, and who knows, maybe I'll learn how to play a game or two.
Re:Second Hand purchase (Score:2, Interesting)
People start rumors because of that stupid root kit crap that Sony put out... which, by the way, was in an unrelated division of Sony that doesnt have direct relations with the gaming division
Even so, there probably will be some method of DRM incorporated in the future.. but it will not be restricted to the original buyer... thats just stupid economically... completely screwing the resale value... look at gamestop, or any other shops like it, they'll make no money on used systems. If they wont make money, sony will lose out on money. No-one will like that, so it wont happen any time soon. (this is speculation as well, but if you consider the economics involved it doesnt make sense, logically)
Re:It'll grow into itself. (Score:1, Interesting)
The problem is that people see the console to be important. Improved hardware is only useful if it allows you to do something new and different with your games. I've played recent Xbox360 games, and they remind me of why I gave up computer games. It's far more fun to play around and play old things that are different and weird and have strange gaming concepts than it is to play yet another platforming game
Many of my friends and people I meet feel the same. I'm starting to think many of the "hardcore gamer" crowd has long moved on to other things.
Actually, Most Sell-Side Analysts Are Too Positive (Score:3, Interesting)
I would actually greatly prefer it if sell-side analysts were always saying things would fail for specific reasons. I generally find research to be much more valuable if it gives detailed arguments why a stock I'm interested might *not* work. If I'm interested, I probably already know why it might work. But people like to have their preconceptions confirmed, which is why most analysts are positive on everything. Sell-siders are compensated as much (usually more) based on client satisfaction as on actual prediction performance.
Now, some of these guys really don't know what they're talking about. But they usually do provide you with pretty good info, and they usually do have good access to management. Don't pay too much attention to their recommendations, which are disproportionately positive--but do pay attention to their arguments and data. Any given research report tends to have 1-3 "stories" that the analyst views as key to the future performance of the stock.
I don't directly cover Sony, but I do know that the performance of the PS3 is undoubtedly the #1 story in the coming years. The quote about "too many features" sounds like it might be taken out of context, but clearly that's *not* the main factor in whether the PS3 will succeed. The best research I've seen views the main factors in the PS3 story as (1) whether developers will find the 360 significantly preferable to the PS3 (the PS3 is getting a late start this time, and if it's too much more difficult to write for than the 360 then the games will be late or non-existent), and (2) whether Sony can get an online service comparable to Live up in a timely and affordable way.
Then there is that blu-ray gambit, and the fact that Sony is still recovering from the DRM music problem, and that there other divisions aren't very profitable and there might be infighting in corporate. With all that in mind, I don't see caution about Sony's stock as a bad thing.
But if you have any special insight into the PS3 before the demos, post it! I'm personally amazed that more IT (and in this case, Consumer Discretionary) analysts don't read
Re:It'll grow into itself. (Score:2, Interesting)
It may be 'cuz I'm stoned... (Score:3, Interesting)
They killed the Saturn with one sentence : "It's 100$ cheaper".
They killed the competition with : "It plays DVDs".
Even though I deem it not feasible, they have been known to surprise people.
My greatest fear about their show at next E3, would be "IT PLAYS DIVX".
Fucking scary...