simoniker writes "As part of a recent MI6 Conference presentation, IDG's Jason Anderson made predictions on the North American installed base of the next-gen consoles through 2008. He predicts that the Xbox 360 will continue to hold a lead into 2009, with the PS3 just behind and the Wii trailing significantly. In particular: 'In 2008, Anderson suggests 15.5 million units in homes for the Xbox 360, 13.5 million for PS3, and 6.8 million for Wii.' Is the Wii really going to trail by so much, or do the analysts not 'get it'?"
The same way all good--and bad--predictions are made: They made them up.;-)
You couldn't be more wrong. Among Nostradamus' many cryptic and undated predictions, there were thinly disguised sales numbers for video game consoles, a decade into the new millenium. Check the quatrains [propheties.it], my friend. It is ALL There
Wii is counting on an audience that doesn't play video games.
If by "video games" you mean FPS, then yeah. They're not counting o an audience that doesn't play video games, they're counting on an audience that doesn't play FPS because the controls are way too complicated for them. Grandma may be a decent shot with her.45, but not be able to play Quake worth a damn. The Wii controller is an equalizer in that respect, and Nintendo is betting it'll bring more people to games that they can't play with cur
Look at current console trends. PS2 has XBOX and GC significantly outsold.
360 has a head start and will enjoy price drop advantages over the PS3, which means the PS3 has to close the gap before it can repeat the PS2's sales dominance. If the Wii performs the same as the GC, it's going to be a year behind the 360. At the end of this cycle of consoles the numbers could be identical, it's just that the 360 is here NOW.
Upon reading that again, i realize it doesn't make as much sense as I thought. I'll clarify: If the PS3, 360, and Wii sold exactly the same numbers as the PS2, XBOX, and GC, the 360 would dominate for a while just because it was on the market first and will benefit from early price drops that keep it competitive. I have no doubt that in the end the PS3 will outsell the 360 and the Wii will at least come close to matching it, but it's going to take a couple of years for them to reach the price points and deve
"I have no doubt that in the end the PS3 will outsell the 360 and the Wii will at least come close to matching it, but it's going to take a couple of years for them to reach the price points and develop the game libraries that 360 has a head start on."
And I have no doubt that the PS3 is going to be a disaster for Sony. It's nice that we're so doubtless - isn't it? So, what's the wager friend?
Only problem is that the Wii isn't the GC. Sure, the proc and graphics may not be a major new innovation, but the hype about the Wii has always been the new controller. Speaking as a marketing student, Nintendo has done a very capable job of marketing the new product, keeping it in the public eye, and giving encouraging price point nods. I predict this analyst prediction will be totally off the wall. Can I get paid too, since I have just as much insight on the yet-to-be-released PS3 and Wii as this writer?
Years of trends coupled with current market research. The good analysts can be pretty accurate; they've got 20+ years of consumer preferences to reference.
who would have predicted, for instance, the overwhelming popularity of the nintendo DS over the PSP?
Me:)
Nintendo has an established handheld line, Sony just jumped in. Not to mention Sony included features most people didn't care about, like that goofy UMD movie format that costs more than a DVD and is only compat
Years of trends coupled with current market research. The good analysts can be pretty accurate; they've got 20+ years of consumer preferences to reference.
The problem here though is that both Sony and Nintendo are going outside those consumer trends - the most equivalent console to the PS3 in terms of cost is the Neo Geo, and there's not much trend information there to extract. In addition, Nintendo's targeting a demographic which is completely outside previous generations, much like they did with the DS.
I have to agree with the grandparent: how can you make predictions about systems as revolutionary as the PS3 (in terms of price) and the Wii (in terms of target audience)? There's just no information about it whatsoever.
You could try to do market research, but that's difficult to do, considering neither Sony nor Nintendo have started marketing the systems yet.
Nintendo has an established handheld line, Sony just jumped in. Not to mention Sony included features most people didn't care about, like that goofy UMD movie format that costs more than a DVD and is only compatible with the PSP.
Then you'd be wrong, though, as the DS and the PSP have an equivalent install base in the US, for instance. Where the DS is decimating the PSP is in Japan - where the DS effectively tapped a new demographic.
You can see that he's kindof dismissing that possibility in the DS/PSP numbers for next year: he predicts the gap to increase, but not significantly. If the DS Lite follows the Japan behavior, that gap will grow incredibly.
He kindof lost me when he started talking about game quality, though - game quality rankings aren't absolute: they're relative to the console that they're on - which means that the more games a system has, the lower the average ranking is going to be. This isn't just because all of the games are crap - it's because the ranking scale got stretched due to the raised bar.
Thank you for the Neo Geo comparison, I like the analogy. Flippantly, does this mean that the PS3 will be the console that every 13 year old kid lusts over, but no one ever buys?
I think the PS3 will have a degree of success, but I think that it will be second fiddle to the 360, just like the article says, but in the global market I don't know if the Wii will be far third. Globally the GameCube is in 2nd right now to the PS2, why would this be any different now? I think there even is a chance in hell of the Wii killing both competitors in Japan.
I think the main thing the Wii has going against it is Nintendo's false association with kiddie games (like someone is going to let their kids play RE4).
In addition, Nintendo's targeting a demographic which is completely outside previous generations, Where did you get this idea. They said they wanted to make it accesable for all, a statement they make every release. They have yet to change their tactic of garnering faith with the younger demographic.
I have to agree with the grandparent: how can you make predictions about systems as revolutionary as the PS3 (in terms of price) and the Wii (in terms of target audience)? There's just no information about it whatsoever.
For the PS3, you do price point analysis. The product doesn't have to be the same. You analyze consumer response in comparison to price point increases that are on par with Sony's annouced prcing. This will give you a response trend.
For the Wii, that target audience has been disected like a frog. Kid friendly with a dash of innovation. You may think it is completely irrelevant - but the biggest trends to compare this to is candy. WTF?!!! Yep, candy. Candy started taking an "interactive" and "electronic" aspect about a decade ago. It used to be all Bazooka Joes and Pixie Stix, now its candy that beeps and comes in cool packaging that moves or does something utilizing the candy. Yeah, I know we had whistle pops way back in the day - but we also had Space Wars too. You can get fairly accurate trends out of consumer response to drastic new ideas applied to common ubiquitous entities - especially as candy is pretty attractive to the target group Nintendo is going after.
You have to remeber this is trend analysis, its not an exact science. You take a whole bunch of statistics with related aspects, qualify them - and then analyze the results in relation to what you're trying to predict. You can do this without having existing statistics on exact subject matter.
Then you'd be wrong, though, as the DS and the PSP have an equivalent install base in the US, for instance. Where the DS is decimating the PSP is in Japan - where the DS effectively tapped a new demographic.
Uhh, no - he's spot on. Even if the PSP and DS have similar install bases, I'd like to see your references - Nintendo has a long history of handheld dominance. That's established. One neck and neck race between two devices while ignoring the GB Advance SP is a flawed analysis. Add those numbers and you see that Nintendo is still owning handheld. The SP is still selling, making it a competator. I guess you meant PSP vs. DS, not true market.
In 2008, Anderson suggests 15.5 million units in homes for the Xbox 360, 13.5 million for PS3, and 6.8 million for Wii.' Is the Wii really going to trail by so much, or do the analysts not 'get it'?
The analysts probably get it. But their talking sepeculation based on economics. Economics is an in-exact science. More specifically, it's an observational science--much like weather forecasting.
Problem is, we'll never be able to say, "Hypothetically, if all three had came out at the same time, PS3 would have carried strong through 2009." Why can't we say that? Because we observe one experiment (what really happens) and we have no control over the variables and the control factors in the experiment. You can't apply the scientific process to much of economics so why is it considered a science? Things like the Phillips Curve [wikipedia.org] hold true for 30 years and then suddenly fall flat on their face so now it's not so much a curve as a movable line that can be placed anywhere automagically.
It's almost painfully obvious that there's very little pertinent data to observe to make this assumption about the XBox, so why make any predictions at all?! Oh, that's right, attention & web traffic.
Ahh... economics. If all the economists in the world were laid end to end, they still wouldn't reach a conclusion. I'm fairly sure that someone will come along and predict the opposite - just in case it happens so all ends are covered.
My Econ prof in college always phrased the question "All other things being equal, if x changes in this direction, y will change in that direction." Problem with trying to apply economic analysis to life is that it's fluid, meaning all the other things are never staying equal.
FTW indeed. Couple that with that ridiculous story yesterday about Sony suggesting game prices could go up even further from $59, and you're right on the money (thank you, thank you, I'll be here all week!) Case in point - me. Last weekend, after contemplating a Xbox 360 purchase for months, I decided instead to just buy an Xbox 360 controller and hook it up to the Mac Mini already sitting next to my HDTV (gaming on a Mac - I know, blasphemy). Add Halo for Mac and some emulators, and I've got a pretty nic
And to think, if you were willing to give up the one or two new games that you are only considering buying you could do the whole thing for the $30 cost of Halo and call it a day.
You are not, by any stretch of the inagination, the intended audience of next gen. consoles.
I've seen this argument used a lot to defend Sony, but it's very frequently used against people (like me) who say the PS3 is too expensive, but they will probably buy a Wii. If someone is going to buy a next-gen console, then whether Sony considers them the "intended audience" or not, they are the next-gen audience. The point is that Nintendo has been trying very hard lately to expand their audience to include more than just devoted hard-core gamers, and so far it shows signs of working (I recently bought a DS Lite after not owning a console since the SNES, and I have multiple friends in the same boat -- it's almost the perfect "casual gamer" system [my wife, who almost never plays video games, is now most of the way through New Super Mario Bros.])
So, when all these people who are not in the traditional "next-gen" market say that they will be buying a next-gen system, and that it will not be the PS3, how can you dismiss it with "Well, you aren't the target audience?" Do console sales only count if they're buyers that Sony is interested in?
Feeding the troll, recipe for disaster... How is he not a gamer? He plays games, he is actually creative in his gaming (how does one go about hooking a 360 controller to a Mac Mini?), that seems the definition. I didn't think that the unthinking reflex to spend money on the VERY dubious bleeding edge was contained in the definition of gamer. I guess I'm not a gamer either since I still don't own an XBox or PS2, and refuse to buy a 360, ignoring the fact I have every retro console, and use them daily. Own
And this is why the Wii will win. SOny and MS are using your philosophy, and targeting the hard core gamers. Nintendo is targeting all gamers. They're looking to get back those people who loved the original Mario, those people who played them back on NES and SNES, and expand the market into the casual gamers. THere's a hell of a lot of gamers out there who couldn't care less about the latest and greatest FPS with uber realistic graphics.
Ok random insert-your-own-inappropriate-word-here guesses what consoles will have sold the most 2 years from now? Oh, awesome, how I've longed for this day to happen.
Also he is dead wrong since he belives the Wii will sell the least amount.
I'm a hardcore FPS gamer. I'll take the PC over any console any day. Although, i did buy a 360, i'm most interested in the Wii. The games look interesting, the innovative controls sound fun, and for less than $250, you can't afford not to get one. With other next-gen systems being at least double to almost triple the price...i don't see why the Wii wouldn't be right up there with the 360 and PS3. The only one i see as lagging behind is the PS3 only because of the pricing. After seeing PS3's launch price, i decided i could get addicted to the new Smash Bros and actually be able to eat food for the next month.
currently I'm not a subscriber, yet I get news updates from what, 3 years in the future where 2/3 of the systems aren't even out yet?
seriously. I don't think analysts' predictions are news; especially when they're predicting the sales trend of products that havne't been released, let alone really shown off, yet. And with something as dynamic as a videogame console. I mean, the primary deciding factor (I thought) in the sales of a system are the games that are released. who's to say that the PS3 won't have a dozen games as spectacular and fun as Shadow of the Colossus? What's to say that the Wii isn't going to blow M$ and Sony out of the water?
I really don't get why this was posted.
as an asside; I'm really looking forward to the Wii. the 360 blew all my expectations out of the water (I really expected it to be slightly more entertaining than fecal matter smeared into a faux mustache on an overly inflated blowup doll). I had high hopes for the PS3, but now, I really don't know and perhaps sony has its head so far up its ass, that I wouldn't be surprised if they botch the whole system worse than atari did with the jaguar. worse than sega did with the saturn.
I think Game Informer had it right in this month's magazine.
if the more affordable Wii ends up being the second sstem of every PS3 or 360 owner, it's possible that it could make a run at the top spot in terms of installed base
Not that every 360 or PS3 owner will also purchase a Wii, but many probably will. Not to mention the die-hard nintendo fanbase that will buy only the Wii. Also if nintendo's plan for how they intend to market the Wii works out then many non-gamers will be converted by the Wii which adds many additional sales.
But honestly, I don't really care. I'm buying a Wii day one because it's going to kick ass. I probably won't ever buy a 360, but I may buy a PS3 in a few years when the price becomes reasonable.
I think you both underestimate how price-concious the console market is. If the Wii is half the price of the PS3 and a lot less than a XB360, with just as many good games, then it should be easy to see that the Wii could very well have a very strong advantage.
I'm not making a prediction though, I think it's way to early to do that when two of the systems in question aren't even available. I'm just saying that it's a pretty big wild card, all three companies are placing pretty big bets on the future of the industry, and the one that's right stands to get the most users. MS and Sony are both betting on variations on an HD path, and Nintendo is angling to grow by expanding the market to include more people not considered conventional gamers.
The forecast predicts 10.6 million consoles in homes for Xbox 360, 6.8 million for PlayStation 3, and a modest 3.5 million for Wii in 2007. In 2008, Anderson suggests 15.5 million units in homes for the 360, 13.5 million for PS3, and 6.8 million for Wii.
so he is predicting that the PS3 and wii will each sell about as many units in their second year as in their first year. it's pretty basic knowledge that consoles, games, albums, whatever, always sell a lot of units at the relative beginning of their release before the numbers dip, often dramatically.
bzzz wrong. Console sales do not follow the same sharp sales curves that videogames, movies and cds do. Yo do get a spike at launch day, but that's about it. Take a look at the PS2 install base worldwide:
End of 2000 - 6.4 million End of 2001 - 24.99 million (+19) End of 2002 - 49.59 million (+25) End of 2003 - 69.46 million (+19) End of 2004 - 81.39 million (+12) End of 2005 -101.37 million (+20)
As you can see, sales are not all that different through the console's lifecycle. You see drops when few good games come out, and increases during price drops and major game releases. Just look at the weekly japanese sales at media create and crunch some numbers.
Interesting find from the analyst according to the article:
From the onset, the Gamecube's [gamerankings.com aggregate] scores were highest, followed by Xbox, then PS2, which hovered around 70% for the entire duration.
In other words, gamers reward consoles which offer them the most choice in their game selection, not necessairly the highest overall quality. Not really surprising if you think about it, but it's interesting to see some numbers backing it up.
The quantity question is shaking up to look the same, at least initially, for the next generation. The majority of next generation previews I've seen are for 360/PS3, with an absolute dearth of high profile previews for Wii.
If the quantity of game selection were the sole criteria, I'd say the analyst is roughly right in his predictions at least for the near term. PS3 will have a huge advantage over the 360 in the number of Japanese developed games, so I expect to eventually overtake it.
The obvious wildcards are how successful the Wii will be in expanding the market and bringing back lapsed gamers. And how long will the PS3 sell for a premium. If Nintendo can translate E3 success into actually getting devlopers to release games on the Wii, their chance for success will rise dramatically.
Agreed, although I think Nintendo is doing a few things to try and combat that. Lining up more third party devs is the big one, as you noted. They seem to be trying, I don't know if it'll work.
But in a more fundamental sense, the whole shift towards the "casual gamer" is an attempt to find a market that is more interested in quality over quantity. People who couldn't possibly ever find the time to play even a fraction of all those PS2 games, and would rather just buy one occasionally, and be pretty sure that it'll be a worthwhile purchase.
The other thing is that with the pricing being significantly lower than the competition, it has the potential to move into more of an "impulse buy" category. Maybe not in the sense of you're walking through BestBuy looking for a DVD and it catches your eye out of the blue sort of impulse. (Although if they set up some nice in-store kiosks with a really crazy fun game, the novelty of the controller would probably sell a few on the spot). But I'm thinking more along these lines; I'm a teenager really wanting a PS3, and as I stare at the box in the store wondering how I'm ever going to manage to find $600 bucks, I notice the Wii next to it, maybe bundled with an extra controller and a game, for half the price. Sure it's not what I really wanted, but it'll still be fun, I have a much better chance of convincing Mom to pay for it, and I won't leave empty handed.
And there's still the 2nd console strategy. Basically saying that the Wii is different enough that it's not an either or between it and another console. You can buy an Xbox360 and get most of the same stuff that you'd get with a PS3. But even having both of those won't let you play most of the games that you can get for the Wii.
Nintendo doesn't care if you buy another console. They only care if you buy a Wii. If you buy a PS3, Steve Ballmer might throw a chair at you (are chair-throwing jokes still funny? were they ever?), because he knows that a large percentage of purchases for Sony are a loss for MS.
In other words, gamers reward consoles which offer them the most choice in their game selection, not necessairly the highest overall quality. Not really surprising if you think about it, but it's interesting to see some numbers backing it up.
Or, to further comment, it could be because the guy did a crappy analysis.
Take a look at his DS/PSP comparison : he states the PSP is like 70%, and the DS is far lower. From gamerankings.com's own data, that seems to be because of a large number of games with very few r
And quite frankly, I think they're underestimating how popular the Wii will be - especially with its wide variety of games designed to appeal to not just hardcore gamers, but especially to women, girls, and occassional gamers.
Based on past performance? Based on marketing of all the companies?
The PS1 was not expected to be sucessfull. Neither was the DS gameboy over the hyped psp as another poster pointed out.
Personally I think the wii is going to surprise everyone and nintendo once again will rerule the console market. It will cost $225 while the PS3 will be anywhere from $600 to $800 and the games will be $70-80, the xbox360 will have about 8 or 9 games by this christmass and cost $350. Also Nintendo is doing innovative things and will attract a broader range of consumers.
If the slashdot poll we had last month was any indication of consumer preference, I think Sony and MS are in trouble. We are more technically minded and more game savy than the average consumer so the preference %'s for the xbox and PS3 should be much higher than the general public.
Last, for those who say the wii is weak on grahics, please check this out? [ign.com] Also take a look at the new Galaxy Mario [ign.com]? The gamecube right now has the best best graphics out of the ps2 and xbox 1. Go ask any real game developer and dont believe the hype out of sony?
So in his opinion, a 400 dollar monstrosity, and a 600 dollar screw up is going to sell much better than the ~300 dollar Wii?
I do admit the 360 has done everything right in their launch and of course they are going to be on top for quite a while. I'd be willing to suggest they win this generation. However how is the PS3 going to get even close to that. They already admited they arn't worried about the following
600 dollar price
Higher Priced games.
No GTA Exclusivity
Going with all blu ray games.
A cheaper version that essentially isn't a game system in many ways.
An unknown and untested online that promises everything the Xbox does (though likely will have more focus on label music)
The same controller with unproven "movement functionality" and no rumble.
A strong lineup of launch games.
Sony is pulling a nintendo 64, they are overestimating name recognition and they will fall flat on the face.
The Wii may not get the hard core gamers, but a lot of techno nuts will grab it just for the pure innovation. At the same time NO ONE is getting a 360 for just arcade games, however someone is more likely to buy a 250 dollar Wii (which sounds what they are aiming for) and go and buy some old nintendo games to play with for a couple dollars tops.
Now I'm not saying the Wii will beat the Ps3, but the Ps3 will NEVER be close behind 360 at the rate they are going. The gaming community has embraced the 360 in North America (where we are talking about), the world's gaming community is extremely skeptical of the PS3, and interested in the Wii. Factor in a Zelda launch title, Halo 3, 2nd gen 360 games, and eyes start to turn.
That's not to say in 2007/2008 that the PS3 will not get great games, or the Wii will get tons of great games. No one knows but the facts are against the PS3 rocketting away. The 360 is "simple" to program for (compared to the PS3), the Wii has a unique controller which both helps and hinders it. And looking at fall 2007, those second generation 360 games are coming fast, compared to launch PS3 games they will blow them away.
Microsoft did almost everything right with the 360 overall, the launch was weak and weak BC, but the games are slowly coming in. On the other side, nintendo is doing everything right in creating a new "interactive" gamer level, and Sony is just about doing everything wrong. One or two issues wouldn't be a problem but Sony really has a long way to become top dog again.
And this is coming from a guy who didn't own a Xbox, I own a 360 now though and I couldn't be happier, it's a great system, I'll be buying a Wii, but the Ps3 still isn't worth the 600 bucks. And remember a PS3 will be highly inflated numbers as well because people will buy it just for the blu ray which is cheaper than buying a Blu-ray player solo.
PS3 isn't launched. Based on current sales the leading console in 2009 will be the PS2 (which is outselling XBox 360). This may sound like a flip joke, but it's actually a fairly likely scenario. Remember the PSOne? It was only just discontinued.
Let's see, what next-gen platform is PS2 (and PSX) compatible?
Sony is betting the farm on a happy convergence of Blu-ray, compelling PS3 titles, and HDTV critical mass.
Microsoft is betting (but not the farm) on getting in first. Microsoft intends to own your digital hub, and they're prepared to lose a whole pile of money getting there. We've seen them behave similarly with Access (which was used to kill Paradox, et al), Video for Windows / Windows Media Player, Internet Explorer, and so on. There's a huge market at stake, and it's worth billions to kill its current owner. The fact that this is technically illegal is a minor annoyance.
Indeed by making the XBox 360 far more technically distinct from a Windows PC than the XBox (which basically was a PC) Microsoft may be trying to avoid potential antitrust action (it could be argued that XBox was an attempt to leverage its desktop monopoly power, whereas XBox 360 is merely an attempt to buy into a new market by using money made with its desktop monopoly). It seems highly unlikely they did it to make developers happy. (Yay, another bizarro platform with a new API to develop for!)
So far, getting in first hasn't worked very well for Atari, Colecovision, Nintendo, and Sega, so good luck to Microsoft there. It's not clear to what extent the PS2's success was driven by it's serving as a (for the time) inexpensive, high quality DVD-player (we've bought and stopped using three or four DVD players since we bought our PS2, and the PS2 still works -- even if it does ask you to override parental controls for almost every DVD; all but one of the other DVD players has eaten it).
In a sense, the success or failure of the Wii is about as relevant to the Sony/Microsoft battle for control of your "digital lifestyle" as the success or failure of the DS (or PSP), which is to say -- not totally irrelevant, but not central. No sane person is going to store the only copy of their family photographs on a PSP. The reason the Wii is so much more exciting (to gamers) than its competitors is that Nintendo is all about games. Wii will never by our digital hub, and we don't care.
Frankly, I wish someone would figure out that a digital hub ought, basically, to be an application-agnostic, really big, reliable mass storage device, and all the other crap should be peripheral.
As someone who sold literally hundreds of Gamecubes working retail, the people that buy Gamecubes are not enthusiasts looking for a little engine that could, they are predominantly parents looking for the system that offers the most kid friendly titles and the lowest price.
There are those that pick them up for wonderful titles like RE4 and SSBM but at least in my experience they're not in the majority.
Rigth now the average gamer doesn't want inovation, he just wants flashy graphics and a good FPS that a noob could pick up and win in, Nintendo is trying to sell in their style, but their style will not match up with the average gamer community
And that's why the prediction is likely wrong: it looks like he's predicting numbers based on what the "average gamer" will do. Nintendo's not targeting the "average gamer". Neither is Sony, for that matter: $500 is outside of what the average gamer will pay for a console.
The "non-gamer" community is still much larger than the "average gamer" community. If Nintendo manages to convince a good portion of them to buy a Wii, they'll dominate in terms of market share.
You're not getting Nintendo's marketing strategy, are you? The Wii is not marketed specifically to the current user-base of current-gen consoles. Sure they want the hard-core gamers, but, they really want to tap into the casual and non-gamers, which their new system may very well appeal to.
Tags are for finding related articles, not for your personal opinion. That's what the comments and your journal are for. If that's not enough, make your own website.
where are these numbers coming from? (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:where are these numbers coming from? (Score:3, Funny)
The same way all good—and bad—predictions are made: They made them up. ;-)
Predictions (Score:5, Funny)
You couldn't be more wrong. Among Nostradamus' many cryptic and undated predictions, there were
thinly disguised sales numbers for video game consoles, a decade into the new millenium.
Check the quatrains [propheties.it], my friend. It is ALL There
Parent
Re:where are these numbers coming from? (Score:5, Funny)
Parent
Re:where are these numbers coming from? (Score:5, Funny)
360 sales in the month of May * 3 = uh, a lot
PS3 sales in the month of May * 3 = 0
Wii sales in the month of May * 3 = 0
Dang - the 360 will totally rule the next gen market! I can be an analyst too!
Remember, kids, you can't spell analyst without anal.
Parent
Re:where are these numbers coming from? (Score:3, Funny)
Re:where are these numbers coming from? (Score:3, Insightful)
Wii is counting on an audience that doesn't play video games.
If by "video games" you mean FPS, then yeah. They're not counting o an audience that doesn't play video games, they're counting on an audience that doesn't play FPS because the controls are way too complicated for them. Grandma may be a decent shot with her .45, but not be able to play Quake worth a damn. The Wii controller is an equalizer in that respect, and Nintendo is betting it'll bring more people to games that they can't play with cur
Makes sense... (Score:3, Insightful)
360 has a head start and will enjoy price drop advantages over the PS3, which means the PS3 has to close the gap before it can repeat the PS2's sales dominance. If the Wii performs the same as the GC, it's going to be a year behind the 360. At the end of this cycle of consoles the numbers could be identical, it's just that the 360 is here NOW.
Re:Makes sense... (Score:3, Informative)
If the PS3, 360, and Wii sold exactly the same numbers as the PS2, XBOX, and GC, the 360 would dominate for a while just because it was on the market first and will benefit from early price drops that keep it competitive. I have no doubt that in the end the PS3 will outsell the 360 and the Wii will at least come close to matching it, but it's going to take a couple of years for them to reach the price points and deve
Re:Makes sense... (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:Makes sense... (Score:2)
Re:Makes sense... [Or Not] (Score:5, Insightful)
Parent
does he think he is nostradamus or something? (Score:5, Interesting)
Re:does he think he is nostradamus or something? (Score:2)
Years of trends coupled with current market research. The good analysts can be pretty accurate; they've got 20+ years of consumer preferences to reference.
who would have predicted, for instance, the overwhelming popularity of the nintendo DS over the PSP?
Me
Nintendo has an established handheld line, Sony just jumped in. Not to mention Sony included features most people didn't care about, like that goofy UMD movie format that costs more than a DVD and is only compat
Re:does he think he is nostradamus or something? (Score:5, Interesting)
The problem here though is that both Sony and Nintendo are going outside those consumer trends - the most equivalent console to the PS3 in terms of cost is the Neo Geo, and there's not much trend information there to extract. In addition, Nintendo's targeting a demographic which is completely outside previous generations, much like they did with the DS.
I have to agree with the grandparent: how can you make predictions about systems as revolutionary as the PS3 (in terms of price) and the Wii (in terms of target audience)? There's just no information about it whatsoever.
You could try to do market research, but that's difficult to do, considering neither Sony nor Nintendo have started marketing the systems yet.
Nintendo has an established handheld line, Sony just jumped in. Not to mention Sony included features most people didn't care about, like that goofy UMD movie format that costs more than a DVD and is only compatible with the PSP.
Then you'd be wrong, though, as the DS and the PSP have an equivalent install base in the US, for instance. Where the DS is decimating the PSP is in Japan - where the DS effectively tapped a new demographic.
You can see that he's kindof dismissing that possibility in the DS/PSP numbers for next year: he predicts the gap to increase, but not significantly. If the DS Lite follows the Japan behavior, that gap will grow incredibly.
He kindof lost me when he started talking about game quality, though - game quality rankings aren't absolute: they're relative to the console that they're on - which means that the more games a system has, the lower the average ranking is going to be. This isn't just because all of the games are crap - it's because the ranking scale got stretched due to the raised bar.
Parent
Re:does he think he is nostradamus or something? (Score:4, Interesting)
I think the PS3 will have a degree of success, but I think that it will be second fiddle to the 360, just like the article says, but in the global market I don't know if the Wii will be far third. Globally the GameCube is in 2nd right now to the PS2, why would this be any different now? I think there even is a chance in hell of the Wii killing both competitors in Japan.
I think the main thing the Wii has going against it is Nintendo's false association with kiddie games (like someone is going to let their kids play RE4).
Not an expert here, but it is fun to think about.
Parent
Re:does he think he is nostradamus or something? (Score:4, Insightful)
Where did you get this idea. They said they wanted to make it accesable for all, a statement they make every release. They have yet to change their tactic of garnering faith with the younger demographic.
I have to agree with the grandparent: how can you make predictions about systems as revolutionary as the PS3 (in terms of price) and the Wii (in terms of target audience)? There's just no information about it whatsoever.
For the PS3, you do price point analysis. The product doesn't have to be the same. You analyze consumer response in comparison to price point increases that are on par with Sony's annouced prcing. This will give you a response trend.
For the Wii, that target audience has been disected like a frog. Kid friendly with a dash of innovation. You may think it is completely irrelevant - but the biggest trends to compare this to is candy. WTF?!!! Yep, candy. Candy started taking an "interactive" and "electronic" aspect about a decade ago. It used to be all Bazooka Joes and Pixie Stix, now its candy that beeps and comes in cool packaging that moves or does something utilizing the candy. Yeah, I know we had whistle pops way back in the day - but we also had Space Wars too. You can get fairly accurate trends out of consumer response to drastic new ideas applied to common ubiquitous entities - especially as candy is pretty attractive to the target group Nintendo is going after.
You have to remeber this is trend analysis, its not an exact science. You take a whole bunch of statistics with related aspects, qualify them - and then analyze the results in relation to what you're trying to predict. You can do this without having existing statistics on exact subject matter.
Then you'd be wrong, though, as the DS and the PSP have an equivalent install base in the US, for instance. Where the DS is decimating the PSP is in Japan - where the DS effectively tapped a new demographic.
Uhh, no - he's spot on. Even if the PSP and DS have similar install bases, I'd like to see your references - Nintendo has a long history of handheld dominance. That's established. One neck and neck race between two devices while ignoring the GB Advance SP is a flawed analysis. Add those numbers and you see that Nintendo is still owning handheld. The SP is still selling, making it a competator. I guess you meant PSP vs. DS, not true market.
Parent
Re:does he think he is nostradamus or something? (Score:2)
I? Atleast wished for, but Nintendo did a bad job in Europe compared to Sony.
Attention Instead of Science (Score:5, Insightful)
Problem is, we'll never be able to say, "Hypothetically, if all three had came out at the same time, PS3 would have carried strong through 2009." Why can't we say that? Because we observe one experiment (what really happens) and we have no control over the variables and the control factors in the experiment. You can't apply the scientific process to much of economics so why is it considered a science? Things like the Phillips Curve [wikipedia.org] hold true for 30 years and then suddenly fall flat on their face so now it's not so much a curve as a movable line that can be placed anywhere automagically.
It's almost painfully obvious that there's very little pertinent data to observe to make this assumption about the XBox, so why make any predictions at all?! Oh, that's right, attention & web traffic.
Re:Attention Instead of Science (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:Attention Instead of Science (Score:2, Insightful)
IMO... (Score:2, Insightful)
Wii FTW!!!
Re:IMO... (Score:3, Interesting)
Case in point - me. Last weekend, after contemplating a Xbox 360 purchase for months, I decided instead to just buy an Xbox 360 controller and hook it up to the Mac Mini already sitting next to my HDTV (gaming on a Mac - I know, blasphemy). Add Halo for Mac and some emulators, and I've got a pretty nic
Re:IMO... (Score:5, Insightful)
You are not, by any stretch of the inagination, the intended audience of next gen. consoles.
Parent
Re:IMO... (Score:5, Insightful)
I've seen this argument used a lot to defend Sony, but it's very frequently used against people (like me) who say the PS3 is too expensive, but they will probably buy a Wii. If someone is going to buy a next-gen console, then whether Sony considers them the "intended audience" or not, they are the next-gen audience. The point is that Nintendo has been trying very hard lately to expand their audience to include more than just devoted hard-core gamers, and so far it shows signs of working (I recently bought a DS Lite after not owning a console since the SNES, and I have multiple friends in the same boat -- it's almost the perfect "casual gamer" system [my wife, who almost never plays video games, is now most of the way through New Super Mario Bros.])
So, when all these people who are not in the traditional "next-gen" market say that they will be buying a next-gen system, and that it will not be the PS3, how can you dismiss it with "Well, you aren't the target audience?" Do console sales only count if they're buyers that Sony is interested in?
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Re:IMO... (Score:3, Insightful)
How is he not a gamer? He plays games, he is actually creative in his gaming (how does one go about hooking a 360 controller to a Mac Mini?), that seems the definition. I didn't think that the unthinking reflex to spend money on the VERY dubious bleeding edge was contained in the definition of gamer. I guess I'm not a gamer either since I still don't own an XBox or PS2, and refuse to buy a 360, ignoring the fact I have every retro console, and use them daily. Own
Re:IMO... (Score:5, Insightful)
Parent
And this is news? (Score:2)
Also he is dead wrong since he belives the Wii will sell the least amount.
interesting guess... (Score:5, Interesting)
From the mysterious future! (Score:3, Insightful)
seriously. I don't think analysts' predictions are news; especially when they're predicting the sales trend of products that havne't been released, let alone really shown off, yet. And with something as dynamic as a videogame console. I mean, the primary deciding factor (I thought) in the sales of a system are the games that are released. who's to say that the PS3 won't have a dozen games as spectacular and fun as Shadow of the Colossus? What's to say that the Wii isn't going to blow M$ and Sony out of the water?
I really don't get why this was posted.
as an asside; I'm really looking forward to the Wii. the 360 blew all my expectations out of the water (I really expected it to be slightly more entertaining than fecal matter smeared into a faux mustache on an overly inflated blowup doll). I had high hopes for the PS3, but now, I really don't know and perhaps sony has its head so far up its ass, that I wouldn't be surprised if they botch the whole system worse than atari did with the jaguar. worse than sega did with the saturn.
wii (Score:5, Insightful)
if the more affordable Wii ends up being the second sstem of every PS3 or 360 owner, it's possible that it could make a run at the top spot in terms of installed base
Not that every 360 or PS3 owner will also purchase a Wii, but many probably will. Not to mention the die-hard nintendo fanbase that will buy only the Wii. Also if nintendo's plan for how they intend to market the Wii works out then many non-gamers will be converted by the Wii which adds many additional sales.
But honestly, I don't really care. I'm buying a Wii day one because it's going to kick ass. I probably won't ever buy a 360, but I may buy a PS3 in a few years when the price becomes reasonable.
Wii Underrated ? (Score:4, Informative)
Here's a question: How much shelf space will Wal*Mart devote to Wii games compared to the other two consoles?
Here's another question: How much money will be spent marketing each next-gen platform?
Sorry to say it, I think the analyst has it just about right.
Re:Wii Underrated ? (Score:5, Insightful)
You'd think they'd be related, or something. :(
Parent
Re:Wii Underrated ? (Score:4, Insightful)
I'm not making a prediction though, I think it's way to early to do that when two of the systems in question aren't even available. I'm just saying that it's a pretty big wild card, all three companies are placing pretty big bets on the future of the industry, and the one that's right stands to get the most users. MS and Sony are both betting on variations on an HD path, and Nintendo is angling to grow by expanding the market to include more people not considered conventional gamers.
Parent
ummm...what is he thinking? (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:ummm...what is he thinking? (Score:5, Informative)
End of 2000 - 6.4 million
End of 2001 - 24.99 million (+19)
End of 2002 - 49.59 million (+25)
End of 2003 - 69.46 million (+19)
End of 2004 - 81.39 million (+12)
End of 2005 -101.37 million (+20)
As you can see, sales are not all that different through the console's lifecycle. You see drops when few good games come out, and increases during price drops and major game releases. Just look at the weekly japanese sales at media create and crunch some numbers.
Parent
Wow (Score:2)
Gamers Prefer Quantity Over Quality (Score:5, Insightful)
The quantity question is shaking up to look the same, at least initially, for the next generation. The majority of next generation previews I've seen are for 360/PS3, with an absolute dearth of high profile previews for Wii.
If the quantity of game selection were the sole criteria, I'd say the analyst is roughly right in his predictions at least for the near term. PS3 will have a huge advantage over the 360 in the number of Japanese developed games, so I expect to eventually overtake it.
The obvious wildcards are how successful the Wii will be in expanding the market and bringing back lapsed gamers. And how long will the PS3 sell for a premium. If Nintendo can translate E3 success into actually getting devlopers to release games on the Wii, their chance for success will rise dramatically.
Re:Gamers Prefer Quantity Over Quality (Score:5, Interesting)
But in a more fundamental sense, the whole shift towards the "casual gamer" is an attempt to find a market that is more interested in quality over quantity. People who couldn't possibly ever find the time to play even a fraction of all those PS2 games, and would rather just buy one occasionally, and be pretty sure that it'll be a worthwhile purchase.
The other thing is that with the pricing being significantly lower than the competition, it has the potential to move into more of an "impulse buy" category. Maybe not in the sense of you're walking through BestBuy looking for a DVD and it catches your eye out of the blue sort of impulse. (Although if they set up some nice in-store kiosks with a really crazy fun game, the novelty of the controller would probably sell a few on the spot). But I'm thinking more along these lines; I'm a teenager really wanting a PS3, and as I stare at the box in the store wondering how I'm ever going to manage to find $600 bucks, I notice the Wii next to it, maybe bundled with an extra controller and a game, for half the price. Sure it's not what I really wanted, but it'll still be fun, I have a much better chance of convincing Mom to pay for it, and I won't leave empty handed.
And there's still the 2nd console strategy. Basically saying that the Wii is different enough that it's not an either or between it and another console. You can buy an Xbox360 and get most of the same stuff that you'd get with a PS3. But even having both of those won't let you play most of the games that you can get for the Wii.
Nintendo doesn't care if you buy another console. They only care if you buy a Wii. If you buy a PS3, Steve Ballmer might throw a chair at you (are chair-throwing jokes still funny? were they ever?), because he knows that a large percentage of purchases for Sony are a loss for MS.
Parent
Re:Gamers Prefer Quantity Over Quality (Score:3, Insightful)
Or, to further comment, it could be because the guy did a crappy analysis.
Take a look at his DS/PSP comparison : he states the PSP is like 70%, and the DS is far lower. From gamerankings.com's own data, that seems to be because of a large number of games with very few r
Maybe if numbers are US only, but not worldwide (Score:3, Interesting)
Pulling numbers out of his ass (Score:5, Informative)
Based on past performance? Based on marketing of all the companies?
The PS1 was not expected to be sucessfull. Neither was the DS gameboy over the hyped psp as another poster pointed out.
Personally I think the wii is going to surprise everyone and nintendo once again will rerule the console market. It will cost $225 while the PS3 will be anywhere from $600 to $800 and the games will be $70-80, the xbox360 will have about 8 or 9 games by this christmass and cost $350. Also Nintendo is doing innovative things and will attract a broader range of consumers.
If the slashdot poll we had last month was any indication of consumer preference, I think Sony and MS are in trouble. We are more technically minded and more game savy than the average consumer so the preference %'s for the xbox and PS3 should be much higher than the general public.
Last, for those who say the wii is weak on grahics, please check this out? [ign.com] Also take a look at the new Galaxy Mario [ign.com]? The gamecube right now has the best best graphics out of the ps2 and xbox 1. Go ask any real game developer and dont believe the hype out of sony?
Right.... this guy isn't listening to the facts. (Score:3, Interesting)
I do admit the 360 has done everything right in their launch and of course they are going to be on top for quite a while. I'd be willing to suggest they win this generation. However how is the PS3 going to get even close to that. They already admited they arn't worried about the following
Sony is pulling a nintendo 64, they are overestimating name recognition and they will fall flat on the face.
The Wii may not get the hard core gamers, but a lot of techno nuts will grab it just for the pure innovation. At the same time NO ONE is getting a 360 for just arcade games, however someone is more likely to buy a 250 dollar Wii (which sounds what they are aiming for) and go and buy some old nintendo games to play with for a couple dollars tops.
Now I'm not saying the Wii will beat the Ps3, but the Ps3 will NEVER be close behind 360 at the rate they are going. The gaming community has embraced the 360 in North America (where we are talking about), the world's gaming community is extremely skeptical of the PS3, and interested in the Wii. Factor in a Zelda launch title, Halo 3, 2nd gen 360 games, and eyes start to turn.
That's not to say in 2007/2008 that the PS3 will not get great games, or the Wii will get tons of great games. No one knows but the facts are against the PS3 rocketting away. The 360 is "simple" to program for (compared to the PS3), the Wii has a unique controller which both helps and hinders it. And looking at fall 2007, those second generation 360 games are coming fast, compared to launch PS3 games they will blow them away.
Microsoft did almost everything right with the 360 overall, the launch was weak and weak BC, but the games are slowly coming in. On the other side, nintendo is doing everything right in creating a new "interactive" gamer level, and Sony is just about doing everything wrong. One or two issues wouldn't be a problem but Sony really has a long way to become top dog again.
And this is coming from a guy who didn't own a Xbox, I own a 360 now though and I couldn't be happier, it's a great system, I'll be buying a Wii, but the Ps3 still isn't worth the 600 bucks. And remember a PS3 will be highly inflated numbers as well because people will buy it just for the blu ray which is cheaper than buying a Blu-ray player solo.
Strategy Schmategy (Score:4, Insightful)
Let's see, what next-gen platform is PS2 (and PSX) compatible?
Sony is betting the farm on a happy convergence of Blu-ray, compelling PS3 titles, and HDTV critical mass.
Microsoft is betting (but not the farm) on getting in first. Microsoft intends to own your digital hub, and they're prepared to lose a whole pile of money getting there. We've seen them behave similarly with Access (which was used to kill Paradox, et al), Video for Windows / Windows Media Player, Internet Explorer, and so on. There's a huge market at stake, and it's worth billions to kill its current owner. The fact that this is technically illegal is a minor annoyance.
Indeed by making the XBox 360 far more technically distinct from a Windows PC than the XBox (which basically was a PC) Microsoft may be trying to avoid potential antitrust action (it could be argued that XBox was an attempt to leverage its desktop monopoly power, whereas XBox 360 is merely an attempt to buy into a new market by using money made with its desktop monopoly). It seems highly unlikely they did it to make developers happy. (Yay, another bizarro platform with a new API to develop for!)
So far, getting in first hasn't worked very well for Atari, Colecovision, Nintendo, and Sega, so good luck to Microsoft there. It's not clear to what extent the PS2's success was driven by it's serving as a (for the time) inexpensive, high quality DVD-player (we've bought and stopped using three or four DVD players since we bought our PS2, and the PS2 still works -- even if it does ask you to override parental controls for almost every DVD; all but one of the other DVD players has eaten it).
In a sense, the success or failure of the Wii is about as relevant to the Sony/Microsoft battle for control of your "digital lifestyle" as the success or failure of the DS (or PSP), which is to say -- not totally irrelevant, but not central. No sane person is going to store the only copy of their family photographs on a PSP. The reason the Wii is so much more exciting (to gamers) than its competitors is that Nintendo is all about games. Wii will never by our digital hub, and we don't care.
Frankly, I wish someone would figure out that a digital hub ought, basically, to be an application-agnostic, really big, reliable mass storage device, and all the other crap should be peripheral.
Surprised? (Score:5, Informative)
Re:Eh? (Score:5, Informative)
There are those that pick them up for wonderful titles like RE4 and SSBM but at least in my experience they're not in the majority.
Parent
Re:Eh? (Score:5, Insightful)
And that's why the prediction is likely wrong: it looks like he's predicting numbers based on what the "average gamer" will do. Nintendo's not targeting the "average gamer". Neither is Sony, for that matter: $500 is outside of what the average gamer will pay for a console.
The "non-gamer" community is still much larger than the "average gamer" community. If Nintendo manages to convince a good portion of them to buy a Wii, they'll dominate in terms of market share.
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Re:This is wrong (Score:3, Funny)
Update the numbers, guys! The Wii will sell 6,800,001.
Re:Wii WILL trail (Score:4, Interesting)
Parent
Tags != Comments (Score:3, Insightful)