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Businesses Christmas Cheer Entertainment Games

What Analysts Will Be Buying For Christmas 54

Posted by Zonk
from the they're-not-getting-you-anything-though dept.
Gamasutra's 'Analyze This' gets opinions firsthand from analysts examining the gaming industry. Today they have up a piece looking at gaming purchases that are good Christmas buys. Unsurprisingly, many of them focus on the next-gen consoles, with a few looking 'back' to hot sellers like the DS and Guitar Hero II. From the article: "We feel that Nintendo DS will perform strongly this Christmas in all major territories while PS2 software, nowadays largely ignored by the mainstream media, will continue to sell in significant volumes until 2008. PS2 software will generate around $5.2 billion in software sales in 2006, down from $7.6 billion in 2005. Although new hardware launches are exciting, it is easy to forget that launch performance is not indicative of longer term results. The first meaningful indications as to how the next generation will shape up will not emerge until late 2007. - Ed Barton, Screen Digest"
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What Analysts Will Be Buying For Christmas

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  • Analysts have already bought into the hype.
  • Analysts? (Score:5, Insightful)

    by HappySqurriel (1010623) on Monday November 27, 2006 @04:42PM (#17006662)
    Seriously, what do Analysts know?

    I have seen analysts spout garbage like "The PSP will dominate the Nintendo DS starting in 2006" and "The Nokia N-Gage will reduce Nintendo to a fraction of their handheld marketshare". All analysts do is make up predictions and try to justify them without any real understanding on why people buy the products they do, and most of the time they're wrong. I'm willing to bet that the average slashdotter has more accurate predictions than these analysts.
    • by grogdamighty (884570) on Monday November 27, 2006 @05:09PM (#17007046) Homepage
      Linux will be ready for mainstream desktop use this year. No, seriously.
      • Re: (Score:1, Funny)

        by BurningPi (1032288)
        It already is; people just don't hear about it enough. On the other hand, I can't imagine anyone buying their wife a boxed linux distro ("Hey, sweetie, I got you FC6. Merry Christmas!")

        I don't think the title is relevant, it sounds like it should be talking about what the analysts will buy their families for christmas.
        • Re: (Score:1, Funny)

          by Anonymous Coward
          "Hey, sweetie, I got you FC6. Merry Christmas!"

          More like Season's Beatings! I mean -- straddling-the-cutting-edge Fedora? You could at least act like you cared, and get her something like Ubuntu...
    • Seriously! (Score:3, Insightful)

      by Doctor Memory (6336)
      Read this interview [arstechnica.com] and then tell me if you'd play anything recommended by "analysts". These people are paid to analyze industries and trends, not games and consoles. It's like asking a commodities broker which grocer has the best bananas! I'd far sooner trust a gaming journalist. They're far less likely to judge a game based on "genre coverage" as opposed to actual gameplay...
      • by MaWeiTao (908546)
        I read that interview and honestly, I thought those analysts made some compelling points. Just because a certain segment has a particular passion for an eccentric game doesn't mean that such games are the most profitable out there. And there's always that one odd game that happens to be a hit, but this isn't something that can be predicted.

        It sounds nice to have a developer constantly put out unusual games, but they do have bills to pay. They can't count on every one of those games being a success, regardle
        • The Xavix, http://www.xavix.com/ [xavix.com] [xavix.com] has been around for a few years now and over the past year, with all the discussion of the Wii, I have yet to see a single person mention the system. The system works quite well, and doesn't require the calibration the Wii does.

          You're correct in saying the Xavix doesn't get the attention the Wii does because the Wii is developed by Nintendo, but the reason for that is different than you would think. Nintendo will bring attention to the Wii because you know that f
        • That Xavix thing is cool, and probably in your american system could even sue Nintendo for violating patents or something, but:

          1. the graphics look like ass

          2. only sports games?

          Sure the Wii has sports games, but it's also got a lot of power and the potential to play other types of games - games which are proven to be fun, and can now be made more realistic by using a more natural input method. The fact that it's by Nintendo is good for everyone, as the developers know the system will sell, and the
    • by zkwang (957831)
      But all the information in the current world does not support these predictions:

      1. Sony loses a few more high profile exclusives ... http://www.gwn.com/news/story.php/id/10792/ [gwn.com]

      2. POSSIBLE Microsoft XBox 360 Price Cuts http://biz.gamedaily.com/industry/feature/?id=1335 1 [gamedaily.com]

      3. eBay shows slow demand for ebay crash in PS3 Prices http://www.gamespot.com/news/6162338.html [gamespot.com]
    • Re: (Score:2, Funny)

      by sugarman (33437)
      The Nokia N-Gage will reduce Nintendo to a fraction of their handheld marketshare".

      Hey, give them some credit. 999/1000 is still a fraction.
  • by thatguywhoiam (524290) on Monday November 27, 2006 @04:43PM (#17006674)
    ... still lays golden eggs. Seriously, go look at the sales figures. I was somewhat astonished.

    Beginning to thing that the PS2 is a missing part of the conversation about the PS3; perhaps the reason Sony aimed so damn high with the spec is that they already have a low-end console with a massive library that sells like crazy. They can probably take the brunt of the parts shortages and bad vibes up front by riding on the PS2's shoulders for at least another two years.

    • They can probably take the brunt of the parts shortages and bad vibes up front by riding on the PS2's shoulders for at least another two years.

      From a market share and revinue perspective Sony will be fine for a couple of years with how the PS2 is performing. The question is how healthy will the PS3 be in 24-36 months (from a software line-up) if it is consistently outsold by both the Wii and XBox 360 (hypothetically speaking of course)? When has a console that is trailing (by a wide margin) ever recovered
      • by LWATCDR (28044)
        The exclusive games will be the key. That will also be the problem for Sony. Development for the PS3 isn't cheap. Companies will put resources where they can pay off. Unless you can charge a premium for PS3 games then it may not be profitable to write exclusives for the PS3.
        Add in that the 360 has very good graphics and you could have Sony falling in to third place.
    • Too bad I used up all my mod points on comments for "Sony Console the Worst Launch Ever."

      If I remember correctly, isn't the PS2 outselling the PS3, 360, and Wii combined (and is above the XBox)?
      • by tuffy (10202)
        If I remember correctly, isn't the PS2 outselling the PS3, 360, and Wii combined (and is above the XBox)?

        Probably. Much like the NES outsold the Genesis for a long time also. But getting sloppy and complacent about providing an upgrade path is a surefire way to lose lots of market share, because the old systems aren't going to sell forever.

      • No numbers for November (expect those mid December) yet, so the Wii might have passed depending on launch numbers, but it did beat the 360 easily in October.

        http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?st ory=11648 [gamasutra.com]

        The PlayStation 2 came in at around 235,000, with the Xbox 360 slightly disappointingly selling just under 220,000 units.
    • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

      by oc255 (218044)
      "The PlayStation 2 is the most popular console with 57% of gamers
      owning one compared to 39% with an Xbox and 27% with a Gamecube. A
      small, fanatical number, 8%, own all three consoles."
      BBC News: 8 April, 2005 - http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/4423365.stm [bbc.co.uk]

      Damn it, I'm a generic fanatic apparently.
  • I don't care. (Score:1, Flamebait)

    by gfxguy (98788)
    I'll buy what I want. Analysts can go perform sexual acts on themselves.
    • by creimer (824291)
      There's a reason why Analysts go to a sex therapist. They too often can't predict what their partner want most of the time.
  • "Our recent study on "next-gen purchase intent" showed that the PS3 enjoys the highest future purchase intent of all three systems."

    "Our purchase intent study shows that immediate purchase intent for the 360 is pretty low, while a good portion of those interested in purchasing a 360 are waiting for a price drop. Microsoft may have tapped out that less price sensitive early adopter portion of the market."

    "the Wii has the lowest level of awareness of the three systems, but a similar level of future purchase i
    • Funny. It's (Wii) all the buzz amongst middle class dads and moms around here.

      I agree the 360 needs a price drop. But, then, so does Sony's PS3 ...
    • "Our recent study on "next-gen purchase intent" showed that the PS3 enjoys the highest future purchase intent of all three systems."

      Make 1,000 random phone calls and ask people "Which of the following next generation gaming systems do you intend to purchase, Sony's Playstation 3, Microsoft's XBox 360 or Nintendo's Wii?" and I'm willing to bet that most people who answer with (something like) "Oh, I own a PS2 so I'm going to buy a PS3!"

      Now, if you created a selection of qualifying questions to see how inform
    • At my office the Wii is the game system of choice right now. No one I know is going to buy a PS3 anytime soon.
      It is just too expensive.
      I have heard that the PS3 lacks a down converter so if you don't have an HDTV that supports 1080p you only get 480p graphics.
      If that is true then it will be a long time before I get a PS3. 1080p TVs are still very expensive.
      • by codyk (857932)
        Does zonk hire people to post this fud in every Sony article? How did this get modded up?

        The ps3 won't convert 720p to 1080i. That's the only conversion issue, and it may be fixed with firmware update. In other words, if you're playing a 720p game on a 720p set, no problem, 1080i game on a 1080i set, no problem, etc etc.

        As for '1080p tvs are still very expensive', 37" 1080p lcds can be had for under a grand now. If you're buying a ps3, that is not 'very expensive'.
        • by LWATCDR (28044)
          No Zonk doesn't pay me anything. And you are right about the conversion issue. As I said I heard it. I latter looked it up.
          I do disagree with the concept that $1000 for a TV is not very expensive.
  • So far I've gotten 6 PS2 titles and 10 DSLite titles, most of the PS2 games are used family/party style games while the DSLite's are new games aimed squarely at the two kids. Lets not forget the 3 controllers (one of which replaces a broken one) and the adapter to use all four at once. I can't wait to whip up on the family in some PS2 Twisted Metal Black! Now if I could only find Backyard Hockey 2005 for the PS2 I'd be happy, the kids don't want to play NHL 2007

    Jonah HEX
    • Me too, I'm buying a lot of PS2 games now, the ones in the games site top ten lists.

      I brought a PSP when it was first released (in Japan). It is only now that a couple of games have come out that I actually like. I'm going to wait several years before going next gen., then there might be some decent games at a fair price.
  • And we're all buying Wii games, quite frankly.

    That and snowsuits and hip waders here in Seattle.

    But some of the DS games are cool, as are some of the PSP ones.

    Nobody seems interested in the Zune here - my sister phoned from Cali to ask if it's any good, I told her it had decent hardware.

    So, I'd look for more Apple iPods, lots of games for the Wii console, extra controllers for the Wii console, SD cards, that kind of thing.
    • by DeadChobi (740395)
      I was going around looking for Wii controllers with a friend in Tacoma and it seems they sell out rapidly. I'm just waiting for someone to unload his entire PS2/PSX collection so that I can rush in and snap up anything that's no longer being pressed(I'm looking at you, Digital Devil Saga.).

      BTW, it's even colder and snowier on the east side.

      I might try to get a DS for myself too.

      If you're interested in something a little more robust and definitely different than an iPod, check out the Creative Zen Sleek. It'
      • I still haven't found any extra Wii controllers myself. Found a nunchuk at Sears, but still need the Wii-mote.

        They sold out any they still had on Black Friday early on.

        And the games are in such short supply that they can't even stock a full shelf, cause they keep selling out.

        Same at many stores.
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