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XBox (Games) Businesses

Microsoft Sticks to 10M Xbox Projection 79

Posted by Zonk
from the brave-men dept.
Despite the strong gains of the Wii, and the PS3's sellout, Microsoft is sticking to its claim that it will be the first next-gen console to 10 million units. They're still hoping to reach that goal sometime this year. From the article: "Just how feasible that number is remains open. Microsoft's latest financial report at the end of September revealed that the company had moved 6 million Xbox 360s worldwide. And in his latest analysis, Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter said NPD data that Xbox 360 hardware sales in the U.S. were 2.9 million units, averaging approximately 250,000 units monthly for the last six months. Pachter further predicted that 750,000 Xbox 360 hardware units would be sold in November, and between 1.5 - 2 million units in December, a conservative estimate assuming that PS3 supply levels remained consistent throughout the month leading up to Christmas." That's of course not the case, as PS3 supplies have been low. The article goes on to point out they still may squeak this out; the Blue Dragon bundle pack for the 360 is releasing in Japan this week. Preorders for the system have been selling out, and demand in that market is high for the Xbox 360 for the first time since launch.
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Microsoft Sticks to 10M Xbox Projection

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  • Hey (Score:5, Funny)

    by antifoidulus (807088) on Wednesday December 06, 2006 @12:50PM (#17131586) Homepage Journal
    a conservative estimate assuming that PS3 supply levels remained consistent throughout the month leading up to Christmas."

    That's of course not the case, as PS3 supplies have been low.


    I dunno, having none all the time is pretty damn consistent :P
  • I think most people rabid for a 360 already have one. This season is the season of the Wii and PS3, depending on how many units of each are actually supplied to the market. On the other hand, drop the price a hundred bucks and I might go out and buy one myself. Probably not though - I want a Wii :D
    • And get a Wii you should. As an owner I can tell you it is a lot of fun if you seek a different style of gameplay that sitting on your a55 all the time. I only have Rayman Raving Rabbits and Wii Sports right now but both have been and still are very fun. Finally killed my first set of batteries in a Wii-mote too. Time to break out the rechargeables.
    • Re: (Score:2, Interesting)

      by MooseMuffin (799896)
      Myself and 3 friends have all bought 360s in the last 2 months. Just sayin'
      • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

        by PygmySurfer (442860)
        Same here, and I've heard of a few other people that recently picked one up through friends and co-workers. Hopefully now that the PS3 is out, people will see how overpriced it really is, and take a look at the alternatives.
    • by tzhuge (1031302)

      While looking for a Wii, I overheard some Best Buy employees saying that they were selling a lot of Xbox360s simply because parents looking for a console for their kids can't get their hands on anything else. I don't know that people are rabid for the 360 but it is pretty good product and it seems a significant group of consumers are simply looking for any next-gen console rather than a specific one.

      Personally, I bought a Xbox360 last couple of months and I'm getting a Wii (hopefully this week).

      • by Fozzyuw (950608) on Wednesday December 06, 2006 @01:38PM (#17132658)
        While looking for a Wii, I overheard some Best Buy employees saying that they were selling a lot of Xbox360s simply because parents looking for a console for their kids can't get their hands on anything else.

        Add my co-worker to this list. She was talking about getting her kids a new system, during all the PS3 launch frenzy, and then I informed her of the differences and the choices. She was going to get a Wii, but could not find any and has no patience or care to stand in line and fight for one. She also found out her kids own an Xbox, so she's getting them a 360 instead, which I said would be a good choice if they already own the Xbox.

        The worst thing Sony could have done is kill their holiday sales by not having enough units. Unfortunately, this happened and Sony's going to get stung by it. Once the holiday is over, that $600 price tag will be for those who really want one. Everyone else will be pinching pennies after feeling like they just spent a lot over the last couple months. Of course, there's always next year! =)

        Cheers,
        Fozzy

        • by Broken scope (973885) on Wednesday December 06, 2006 @01:48PM (#17132840) Homepage
          Wait... she found out her kids a an xbox. Damn, that pretty hard to hide one of those. I mean they stick out like a sore thumb and its hard to move them around..
          • lol maybe she thought her husband just changed the flooring in their TV room to black and green plastic. . .

            I own a couple xboxes so I'm allowed to make the joke.
          • by Fozzyuw (950608)
            Wait... she found out her kids a an xbox. Damn, that pretty hard to hide one of those. I mean they stick out like a sore thumb and its hard to move them around..

            From what I hear, it's in another room she never goes. Maybe some kind of 1970's main frame computer like room. =P

        • The worst thing Sony could have done is kill their holiday sales by not having enough units.

          This is true, and if you study economics, is actually an observable market phenomenon. Sony pulled this exact same stunt with the PS2, and apologized profusely, and swore that it wouldnt happen. Two years ago, they were talking about tremendous numbers of PS3s for the launch. ANd yet, here we are. Nearly Christmas, and no one can give Sony 700 bucks for a PS3 even if they wanted to. You're mostly likely right. Son

          • by elrous0 (869638) *
            To me the 360 is just the new Sega system

            NOTHING is new anymore. Why, a fax machine is nothing more than a waffle iron with a phone attached!

            -Eric

    • by twosmokes (704364)
      I wouldn't be so sure. Fans of a company buy consoles at release, everyone else waits until there are games for it that are desired. Gears of War is going to sell a lot of 360s. I know it (and a few other games) have sold me and a few coworkers on the system.
    • by antime (739998)
      I'm one of those holding out for a price drop. However, with the PS3's current price Microsoft have no need to start a price war and if the reports on the hardware's profitablity are true the Xbox unit is probably under some pressure to recoup at least some of the money spent so far.

      The other thing I'm waiting for is the 65 nm versions of the chips rumoured to be coming next year. The reduced manufacturing costs may actually allow Microsoft to lower the prices while still maintaining a profit, and the reduc

    • The other day I was at Fred Meyers and some lady wanted a PS3, nope there out. Then she wanted a Wii - nope there out. Oh but whats this Xbox 360 thing - they've got like 15 of those? Yeah she ended up with one and a couple games. This really did happen.

      I suspect similar scenarios are being played out all over the country.
  • Guaranteed Gears of War and Rainbow Six 3 have increased console sales since their respective releases. I actually think the PS3 limited quantities helped Microsoft. Many of the people I saw who went to try and buy a Wii/PS3, and couldn't get one, walked away with a Gears of War XBox 360 Bundle instead, because there were plenty.
  • So wait, they released their console a year before the other two and they're claiming they'll be the first to sell 10M of them? Or am I just reading that wrong?
    • It doesn't really matter how you get to be the leading console as long as you're leading (See PS2) ... Technological advantage is meaningless when a developer is trying to make a buisness case to te publisher to create an exclusive game for your platform; all that matters is how large of a userbase the system has, and how many potential sales you will lose by not developing it for another system.
  • Nextgenwars.com (Score:3, Informative)

    by Daemonstar (84116) on Wednesday December 06, 2006 @12:58PM (#17131744)
    Nexgenwars.com has a site [nexgenwars.com] that shows the (supposed) current running sales of each console.

    • Xbox360: 8,058,282
    • PS3: 383,525
    • Wii: 1,203,618
    Of course, they don't state how or where they get their information. :P
  • by Assmasher (456699) on Wednesday December 06, 2006 @01:06PM (#17131936) Journal
    ...shortages of Cell processors because IBM's server (which utilize the chip) are selling like hotcakes...
    • Incorrect.

      The PS3 delays are not because of the Cell, but because of the diode used in the Blu-Ray laser. IBM has nothing to do with the optical drive.
  • I think that they will make their projections as well. Considering how rare and expensive PS3s are and the Wii is just unavailable, the 360 is the only thing to turn to for your next-gen fix. Add to that some great discounts lately (Amazon, Micro Center's $100 rebate, Overstock, etc.) the Xbox is becoming a bigger bargain. Take me for instance, I wasn't planning to get a 360, but with Micro Center's great rebate offer, I couldn't miss it!
    • by Aladrin (926209)
      The Wii is getting to be more plentiful, though. I've actually managed to buy 2. (1 for my nephews for Christmas.) Stores are getting regular shipments, some of them a couple times a week or more. (Toys R Us, where I got mine, seems to be getting them 2 or 3 times a week.) You still have to be a little lucky to get 1, but nothing like launch. It's predicted that they'll be sitting on shelves, waiting for buyers, by Christmas. I believe that prediction.

      Not that I'm against the 360. I've had a ton of
      • My girlfriend tried to pick up a Wii this morning when WalMart opened. She figured she'd get there early but saw a line of 15+ at 5:30am and went back home. They're definitely still a pain in the ass to get.
        • by simp7264 (465544)
          My wife got one today the same way, showed up at 5:00am and line was only 7 strong. Our store in the middle of nowhere got 23 in, maybe she should have stuck it out they probably had more than 15+ units for sale.

          Walmart has had those units in for days (I think 10 here) they just had to wait to sell them since they advertised in their circular ad (effective today) that they have some.
  • 10 million consoles first? I thought their major claim was that they'd reach 10 million consoles by the end of the year. The article summary seems to have the importance of each backwards. That said, they've got less than a month left. It will be interesting to see how close they come.

    That said, Nintendo also has a ways to go before they reach their 4 million projection. They haven't launched everywhere yet, but still have just shy of 3 million to go before they hit their mark.

    In fact, it's hard to say if a
    • by Milktoast (3812)
      If you'd would read the article you'd see they are sticking with the 10 million by 2006 goal.
      • It was, I was just confused as the summary on slashdot emphasized reaching 10 million first as opposed to 10 million before next year.
  • MS will sell 10M 360's before Sony will produce 10M PS3s. The 360 already has some decent games at $29 and $39, as well as big exclusives. My guess is that, at least in the near future, games are going to drive up sales of the 360. However, the Wii will outsell all of them. IMO, the Wii will outsell them without taking much of their marketshare. It's appeal is more for people who wouldn't buy the 360 or PS3, or for people who will by it as well as their high-end console of choice.
  • Not that my own observations count for much but I've actually noticed a number of people inquiring about or purchasing the Xbox360 in various stores. A few stores have had very prominent displays for the Xbox with the Wii and PS3 off to the side somewhere. Of course it doesn't help that neither of those consoles is currently available.

    I did see one woman asking about the Wii and she didn't seem to be pleased at all over the prospect of having to wait in line to get one and this was for a December 6th shipme
    • by Fozzyuw (950608)

      A few stores have had very prominent displays for the Xbox with the Wii and PS3 off to the side somewhere.

      I've sort of noticed this. At Wal-Mart, I see a big PS3 display in front, a normal 360 displaly in their case, and the Wii was just a disaster. If I was Nintendo, I'd be a little unhappy with how their using shelf space. Heck, a new SuperCenter (less than 3 weeks open) only made shelf space for the controllers a few days ago. Yesterday, I looked at the games, and the Wii games where finally moved

      • by aricept (810752)
        Different story at my local WM. They opened the controller space for Wii and PS3 two weeks before launch, opened about 10 hangers, had the UPC codes already on them. Two were for PS3 controllers. The rest were for Wii controllers. Had Wii games available before launch; have yet to see a PS3 game in stock.
      • by MaWeiTao (908546)

        I've sort of noticed this. At Wal-Mart, I see a big PS3 display in front, a normal 360 displaly in their case, and the Wii was just a disaster.

        I have to agree. It doesn't help that the Wii identity is particular weak so that it fades in the background in the midst of all the chaos and color in stores. I think wherever designed the identity, Nintendo includes, were going for the Apple look. However, they failed to realize that the Wii is competing in a different space than Apple and as such needs to stand

  • This will be the first holiday shopping season where Xbox 360s will be readily available. There were some core systems on shelves last year, but even those ran short. If the 8M figure above is correct, I think hitting 10M this year may be possible. This holiday season, you will not find a PS3 on the shelf and Wiis will be pretty rare. MS will be the big winner this month simply because there are no other choices and very gift givers are going to wait till Feb-March to give their present.

    PS3 and Wii wo

  • If you look at the numbers for the previous generation, you'll quickly realize that 10 million is a piddling number:

    * Nintendo GameCube: 21.20 Million as of September 30, 2006 (Japan: 4.02, The Americas: 12.44, Other: 4.75)
    * PlayStation 2: 111.25 Million shipped as of September 30, 2006 (Japan: 23.99, USA: 44.86, Europe: 42.40)
    * Sega Dreamcast: 10.6 Million as of December 2004 (Japan: 2.30, Other: 8.30)
    * Xbox: more than 24 Million as of May 10, 2006

    See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Console_wars#Worl [wikipedia.org]
    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      I don't know what the number is, but once you get a lead of a certain size you can essentially run away with the generation; after your userbase lead is large enough you will get all cross platform development and you're likely to get most of the exclusive content as well.

      The PS2 had a 80 Million unit lead because they started off getting a 10 Million unit lead ...
    • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

      by AArmadillo (660847)
      Ten million is considered important because analysts have said that the first system to ten million sales will be the top next generation console. This is based on there being a certain point of no return where a console simply has so much momentum that nearly every third party developer makes games for it. Analysts point to the PS2 becoming dominant right after it sold 8 million consoles to justify this. Of course, analysts are often wrong, but fifty million is way too high for the point of no return.
    • by The-Bus (138060)
      This is correct.

      If MS can reach 10 million first, they also need to be the first to reach 20 million and the first to reach 40 million. The figures for the PS2, NGC, and Xbox are so lopsided that it's almost unfair. The PS2 sold twice as much as its three other competitors combined.

      I don't think Nintendo can convince the majority of previous PS2 owners to go with the Wii instead of the PS3. Not only does that not make sense, it's being publicly denied as Nintendo's strategy. High-def surround-sound ultra-ne
      • by Babbster (107076)

        They've yet to sell more than 500,000 on any month besides their launch (and possibly) this month that just passed. They should be selling AT LEAST 500,000 consoles and are simply not. If they don't pick up the pace, they might be the first to 10 million but they'll lag after that.

        Why? Because the PS2 sold more and sooner? Keep in mind that a) the PS2 was $100 cheaper than what people consider the "true" 360 model (even averaging the two versions, the PS2 was $50 cheaper) and b) the PS2 had a rabid follo

    • You're comparing the 10 mil number to the lifetime shipped of the other consoles while the 360 has only been out 1 year. If you look at PS2 which has the most total shipped (note it doesn't say sold), then look at where the data came from, the PS2 only sold 10 mil after its first year.
  • I just bought a 360 from a local store last Sunday, along with Gears of War and Dead Rising. I took it home, set it atop a rear projection HDTV, and connected the various component, power, and network cables. There was plenty of room in the rear for fan outflow, and nothing obstructing the unit on the top or sides. Then I created an Xbox Live account and it downloaded a firmware update. I figured I was ready to play.

    First I stuck in Dead Rising. Played single-user for about thirty minutes or so until the sc
    • by brywalker (738506)
      Actually, if you do a bit of searching, the reason your system bailed was because of the update you did on Live. It has destroyed many systems, and MS will not acknowledge that it is the cause. MANY people had no problems until the "1080p fix" update. It has caused lockups and in worse cases bricked systems. Don't be afraid to get another. I have had one since launch and it's all good. Just don't update it. Stay off of Live for a bit until they recall the update. Microsoft is INDEED their own worse enemy.
      • by maynard (3337)
        If that's true then I'm even further convinced to dump the thing. One of the principal reasons I bought it was for Xbox Live. If MS is bricking systems with their updates, and then charging people to fix their mistakes, why in hell would I want to expose myself to that kind of hassle?

        I don't know what caused the problem. I just know that I bought a worthless piece of junk and I thank God I can still return it for my money back.
        • by radish (98371)
          You should also be aware that, as always, the internet blows problems way out of proportion. If we believed everything we read there would be no MacBooks left without brown stains all over them, 50% of Wii owners would be buying a new TV due to Wiimote impact and no-one would be able to use 720p on their PS3. Of course all of these are true, but isolated problems, and the 360 ones are likely the same. Of course I don't know for sure, because I can only go off a sample size of 4, but none of those 4 have had
    • by Asmor (775910)
      I got a launch 360 (for the record, I didn't specifically want it; my birthday's November 27th, and my dad's just that cool even though I told him I was waiting for a wii).

      It died a few months later, maybe within 90 days. Not sure. I sent it back, they replaced it no hassle, even sent me a box to send it in. They ended up sending me a "new" one (by which I mean different from the one I sent them, it was likely refurbished).

      Anyways, that one died on me about a month or two ago (almost a year since original p
  • Only 6 million XBox 360s sold by end of September? Can that be right? Just a few stories up Nintendo claims to have sold 6 million Wiis in the few weeks it has been out, while XBox 360 was released a year ago. I don't know much about console sales and history of releases, but doesn't that mean XBox 360 is a total non-issue?
    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by MooseMuffin (799896)
      Read that story again. Nintendo believes it will have 6 million sold by the end of their fiscal year on March 31.
  • The Wii is selling like hotcakes and the lines to buy them are getting longer and forming earlier when whiff of a shipment comes in.

    Once there's enough to satisfy the people willing to wait in line forever, it will sell extremely well "off the shelf", I'm sure.

    I think Microsoft will reap the rewards of having plenty of stock, sure, but it really seems like the Wii will hit 10m units as soon as they can roll that many off the assembly lines. The 360 isn't that fortunate.

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