Sony Ships 2 Million PS3s, May Still Miss Goal

Despite the news (at Gamasutra) that Sony has already shipped 2 Million PlayStation 3s, Next Generation reports that analysts are still doomcasting Sony's early next-gen efforts. The Japanese investment firm Nomura is now saying they expect Sony to be able to ship approximately 4.5 million PlayStation 3 units by the end of the fiscal year in March. This is only 75% of the company's stated goal. From the article: "Despite early manufacturing issues and a subsequent European delay, Sony has maintained that it will still ship 6 million PS3s worldwide by the end of its fiscal year. The company recently said that it met its goal to ship 1 million units in North America by the end of calendar year 2006. NPD Group reported last week that the console sold 490,700 units in the US in December, with 687,300 sold life-to-date in the region." I think it's still a mite early to say what's going to be happening in March, but there are a lot of unhappy investors listening to these reports right now.

Re:BFD

[AKAImBatman]

If some really cool games don't ship this year the PS3 could just end up as another expensive game system nobody could justify buying.

To a certain degree, the same is true of the Wii. We're halfway through January now, and the majority of games on the horizon are Virtual Console games. That means that the hefty Gamecube library (of games most Wii owners haven't played) is holding up the value of the console. If the demand for the console wasn't keeping morale so high, you'd already be hearing grumbling about when new games will be coming out. The $250 price tag certainly wouldn't be convincing consumers to buy it just to play Gamecube games.

The only difference is that Nintendo managed their launch a lot better with greater supply, lower price tag, and a wider variety of cool games. Sony is scrambling only because they mis-managed their launch with a poor game selection, high price tag, and low availability. Things will get interesting next Christmas when both consoles have well-stocked libraries and lower price tags. Don't think for a minute that Sony isn't going to flex its market muscle and deep pockets at that time.

That being said, I think of lot of the PS3's eventual muscle will be deflected or absorbed by the XBox 360. Which would leave the Wii in a much better position. My only message to Nintendo is this: Don't get cocky!

Re:BFD

[GeckoX]

Yep, this is par for the course for a new Sony console. The only thing that _might_ make this fail is the other consoles. As for this release though, there are never many great games available when a new sony console comes out. This is for a number of reasons, but most revolve around the more complicated system they always end up putting out. It takes a couple of years to learn how to squeeze everything out of a new piece of sony kit.

There are always a certain number of people that buy a new PS immediately, but they've never had a console that just flew off the shelves at launch. They're like the locomotive in the industry, take a long time to get moving, but once they are look out. Prices fall, footprint reduces, games come out in droves, sales grow and grow and grow.

IMHO, all we can tell at this point about the current state of the consoles is this:
a) It's too early as usual to weigh in on Sony, but the indicators show similar success to previous launches.
b) MS is in a typical holding pattern. Picking up more sales due to the timing of games being available and specifically, a couple games that the japanese market is actually interested in.
c) The Wii is off to a great start...time will tell, but unless they screw up the games coming down the pipe in the future, it should be Nintendo's most successful console to date.

Don't expect much to change for at LEAST another year. Now taking bets on how many articles on this subject we'll see here within that time...I think we're already well over half a dozen ;)

They missed the important holiday season.

[vakuona]

That is why you are likely to see lots of inventory. I for one would love to get my hands on the PS3, and I shall, but right now I do not have the cash. Had it been available before Christmas, I would probably have rearranged my spending to be able to get one. I shall get one this year.

I am not much of a Sony fan, but I like their console. I like the fact that they have put that much effort into making the best all round console. Sales shall pick up, no doubt, especially with the inevitable price drops. The PS2 still sold strongly, and was the best seller over the holiday season. Next season, Sony won't be competing against itself, and then we will see the true picture. The lack of the library was a big issue for Sony, but next season, their library will be much more comprehensive.

I shall not be getting the gimmicky Wii, or the Xbox. I prefer the PS3 to the Xbox, and like the fact that I can also install Linux on it. Beat that Xbox. The Wii will be killed by its longevity, or rather lack of (IMO). Sony's PS2 has had extremely good legs, and has been the best selling console, well, since the Dreamcast launch. It shall pass the baton to the PS3. At least that is my prediction.