DS, PSP Could Claim Supremacy in Console Wars

njkid1 passed us another link to a GameDaily article, this one quoting analysts at DFC Intelligence as seeing a sort of usurpation of the console space by portable games. With the DS consistently outselling almost every other system on the market since last year, it's possible that the DS may become the best-selling system 'of all time'. Moreover, portable consoles may actually grow to have a larger market share than their more expensive, high-def cousins. "This comes from DFC's latest report on the portable gaming market, which the firm predicts will exceed $10 billion in worldwide revenue this year, led by the DS. DFC said that the PSP will 'establish a solid position in the marketplace' but that much of the Sony portable's fate will depend on how much effort Sony Computer Entertainment decides to put into promoting the platform over the next few years."

What about software sales?

[GoodbyeBlueSky1]

I don't know about everyone else, but does owning a handheld even impact playing games at home? I own a PSP and, quality of titles notwithstanding, never play it unless I'm commuting or traveling somewhere. When I'm home, I have no desire to play a portable system since I can play a more powerful, more immersive game on my TV.

So, my point: Is installed user-base all there is to care about? Don't Sony/MS/Nintendo make the bulk of their profits on the games? I'd be more interested in seeing the ratio of portable to non-portable games sold. Maybe they are in fact on to something here, but hardware sales numbers don't really tell the whole story.

Also I'm getting tired of these articles that claim to forecast "the answer" after one holiday season of incredible hardware droughts for several systems which forced many buyers to go to their plan B or C anyway.

Re:What about software sales?

[Osty]

When I'm home, I have no desire to play a portable system since I can play a more powerful, more immersive game on my TV.

That's where Sony screwed up with the PSP. Handhelds can never be as powerful or as immersive as the current consoles (that is, a PSP is about as powerful as a Playstation 1. When there's a PSP that's as powerful as a Playstation 3, the Playstation 5 will be available). You don't get people to play handhelds by taking a console game and just porting it over. I played GTA:LCS on PS2, and there's no way I'd play that on a portable. You need quick, stop/start gameplay that's easy to pick up and put back down again. The DS is killing the PSP because Nintendo "gets it" and Sony doesn't. Take the Warioware series of games, for example. They consist of short 5-second minigames strung back to back for a ~5 minute playing experience. I loved the first two on the GBA, and Touched on the DS was excellent as well. I never bothered to pick up the Gamecube title because the gameplay just didn't make sense.

Oddly enough, the Wii seems to be moving towards the portable style of gameplay. You can pick up Wii Sports, play a 5-minute game of tennis or a round of boxing, put it down, and walk away. Arguably the best games on the system (not counting Zelda, since that was essentially a GC game ported to Wii) have been of the same mold: Rayman Raving Rabbids and Warioware Smooth Moves really show off what you can do with the WiiMote in short bursts of mini-game madness that's easy to jump right into and easy to walk away from. As much as I enjoy a good game of Dead Rising or Gears of War on my 360, I find myself going to the Wii when I've got 15 minutes to spare.

Homebrew could be part of it

[tepples]

however the other part of the story that I haven't seen mentioned is that for the first time Nintendo has some real competition in the handheld market (versus decimating every other company that has tried to enter it).

And this is also the first time that a Nintendo handheld has had a thriving homebrew scene. GBA came close, but like DS commercial games, DS homebrew is actually reaching the non-gaming public with polished products such as MoonShell and DSOrganize, and homebrew equipment is sold in Wal-Mart under the name "MAX Media Dock". Sony, on the other hand, loses sales among homebrew fans every time it updates the PSP firmware.

Re:Homebrew could be part of it

[DDLKermit007]

Largely the homebrew in the US for the DS is due to the fact that people are seeing what Japan has done with DS non-videogame related stuff so exceptionally. All sorts of Kanji learning games, math, quizes, cook-book, etc. The DS has created a completely new kind of market in Japan. I can only dream of similar things happening in the rest of the world.