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Wii's Longevity, Competition Questioned 277

Posted by Zonk
from the everyone-makes-a-fuss dept.
Gamasutra reports that, despite the Wii's breakaway sales success, some analysts are skeptical of the Wii's staying power. Other analysts are, of course, pointing out that many of the 'hardcore' titles are expected later this year. "[They] not[ed] that 31% of Wii owners surveyed in March said they expected to play the Wii more often a year from now, compared to 21% of Xbox 360 owners." At the same time, Nintendo of America's George Harrison is questioning the staying power of Sony and Microsoft. According to Harrison, the two larger companies 'lack the DNA' to move with the industry, and keep with the the demand for casual, more family-friendly titles. "'They're really good at reaching a certain customer, and have a real difficulty understanding how we succeed with the customers that we have,' said the senior vice president of marketing and communications. With the sales of Wii and DS hardware crushing the competition in the US, Harrison is confident that Nintendo could take up to as much as 50 per cent of the market for this latest 'next-gen' cycle."
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Wii's Longevity, Competition Questioned

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  • by xtracto (837672) on Wednesday May 30, 2007 @10:11AM (#19321071) Journal
    I reserved and got a Wii on the launch date along with Zelda and Red Steel. I have also bought Monkey Ball, Excite Truck and Wii Play games. Currently, I am waiting for a good RPG... I was looking forward for the Dragon Quest game but so far there is no sign of it. I do not like the "mini games" as I have enough of them with Wii Play/Sports and MonkeyBall... also I do not have lots of people to play with... WHERE IS THE INTERNET PLAY!!! THIS IS 2007...

    I got bored of my Wii... I am still waiting for a good game, the problem with consoles like this with so few games is that sometimes it is impossible to get a game you like if your "tastes" are not standard... Also, I do not have the £40 to spend on some wannabe game without testing... how am I suppose to see if I like that game? considering that these days, online reviews are less worthless...

    • by Lockejaw (955650) on Wednesday May 30, 2007 @10:17AM (#19321127)

      Also, I do not have the £40 to spend on some wannabe game without testing... how am I suppose to see if I like that game?
      Is renting an option for you?
      • Re: (Score:2, Interesting)

        by mu22le (766735)

        Also, I do not have the £40 to spend on some wannabe game without testing... how am I suppose to see if I like that game?

        This is the reason I download most of my games via some 'illegal' channel first, I play most of them for less than 1 hour.
        I usually end up buying the ones I really love sooner or later (but not always :).

        OTOH online demo system like the one built for PS3 and Xbox360 could make this kind of pirating pointless.

    • Re: (Score:2, Interesting)

      by BosstonesOwn (794949)
      I am quite the opposite. I find myself playing the wii so often, every day I get home from work I play , my wife even likes to play with my wii. Well that sounded so sexual.

      Quite honestly between wiiplay and wiisports I spend at least an hour a day playing. With Super Mario Paper and Trauma Center it's time for sleep before i even get a chance to watch some TV.

      To me I play the wii more often then my 360 , I got bored of the constant fps and sports games constantly being released. They need to get me more in
      • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

        by bigman2003 (671309)
        I have had the exact opposite experience.

        When I first started playing the Wii, I thought, 'amazing...' Then I started to look for something deeper, more challenging. I didn't find it.

        My 360 is the console I expect to be playing far into the future, while the Wii will be relegated to being the console that non-gamers have fun with at parties.
        • by segedunum (883035) on Wednesday May 30, 2007 @03:37PM (#19326143)

          My 360 is the console I expect to be playing far into the future, while the Wii will be relegated to being the console that non-gamers have fun with at parties.
          And that's why the Wii is winning. There's far more of them then there are of you.
    • by Applekid (993327) on Wednesday May 30, 2007 @10:29AM (#19321319)
      Such group games like Wii Sports / Play really should have had internet play. Period. The only reason why I'm still playing Sports after three weeks is because my roommate and I have a rivalry going as far as getting gold medals in the trainings and trying to outdo each other in the fitness tests.

      I also picked up Warioware because I always liked the end-game endless modes and how they condition me to recognize what I have to do in a fraction of a second. If you don't like minigames, that's probably torture. ;)

      As I recall, no system has ever had a platform-exclusive RPG come out until many months after launch. (and I'm of the tribe where Zelda doesn't count as an RPG.) It's unfortunate that the unexpected success of the Wii has brought with it a whole bunch of shovelware from 3rd parties. Once the growing pains quit I think it'll do fine.

      And, yes, same argument could be made about the PS3 right now anyway.
      • Such group games like Wii Sports / Play really should have had internet play. Period. The only reason why I'm still playing Sports after three weeks is because my roommate and I have a rivalry going as far as getting gold medals in the trainings and trying to outdo each other in the fitness tests.


        I have to disagree. Why? The fun of Wii Sports/Wii Play is playing with friends/family. I had my hair cut this weekend, and the stylist was complaining about sore arms because she went to a friend's house "and they showed us their Wii and I played Tennis".

        Online play might work for gamers, and maybe it would have been a nice addition, but I don't think it as "required". Look at your own example - you're still playing it because you're competing with someone you know. Grandma Pearl and Grandpa Fogie wouldn't care about "Wii Tennis" ladders online - these are people they don't know, but they do care about their war buddy Jim who comes over to play (and yes, I'm being serious - I have some older coworkers who aren't tech guys who were talking about playing Wii Sports and getting competitive about their scores).
        • by xtracto (837672) on Wednesday May 30, 2007 @11:23AM (#19322163) Journal
          Online play might work for gamers, and maybe it would have been a nice addition, but I don't think it as "required".

          The main problem I see is that, I must arrange a "party", "meeting" or whatever with whatever friends I've got here in the UK (I am originally from Mexico) in the not much *spare* time I've got (doing my PhD) in order to play those games, whereas if they had on-line play I would be able to get into my flat (after a 12 hour office day), log in and have fun playing 1 (or 2) games of Bowling/Tennis/etc... against other players.

          Also, my rank in tennis is between 2100 and 2200 (dont remember the exact number now) and I can beat any of my friends very easly... I would really enjoy playing against other people in the world which are equally good.

          So, for me, the lack of online playing on the Wii *is* very bad. They should have added online play on the VC games too, that way I would have bought SF2 or some other SNES game just to play with my girlfriend (who is in Mexico now)... as I said in another post, this is 2007 !!?? , the hardware is there, these are NINTENDO games... WTF happened?
          • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

            by Metroid72 (654017)
            Dude,

            If more people knew Spanish (especially Linux fanboys) - your Karma or moderation won't be that high.

            Be an adult and change that sig.

            From a Spanish speaking dude to another.
      • by magnusrex1280 (1075361) on Wednesday May 30, 2007 @11:43AM (#19322495)
        On a side note, the success of the Wii wasn't really unexpected. Everything I read and everyone I've talked to who knew about it prior to the launch said it was going to blow the PS3 and the xbox 360 out of the water, and it has.
        • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

          by Kelbear (870538)
          Doesn't look that way to me. Nintendo underestimated demand for the console and third-party developers are getting a late-start on this console because they placed their projects on the PS3 and Xbox360, hence the relative lack of non-firstparty games for this system until next year.

          Now that the Wii looks like it will have a strong portion of the market, they'll be jumping on board and I expect to see a swell of games coming up for the Wii in the future when they are completed.
    • It sucks that Europe has not gotten Super Paper Mario yet, as it is an excellent RPG. Internet play is coming very soon with Mario Strikers, after which it sounds like the floodgates are opening.

      If your tastes are not "Standard", then I would think that the wii should be right up your alley; the gamer "standard" these days seems to be Halo 3.
    • Hmm. One of the things I find refreshing about the Wii is that many of its games do not "taste" standard. Elebits, Paper Mario, Monkey Ball, Sports are all games that, to me at least, tend to be less standard than the crop of FPS and racing games that dominate the other consoles.

      As for internet play, I truly do not care. Video games to me are about disconnecting from the "real world", I don't want to be social when I'm playing them.
    • by ProppaT (557551) on Wednesday May 30, 2007 @11:58AM (#19322763) Homepage
      "the problem with consoles like this with so few games is that sometimes it is impossible to get a game you like if your 'tastes' are not standard"

      I understand what you're getting at, but I feel just the opposite. I've been a Nintendo fan ever since my mind was blown as a kid when I played Super Mario Bros, Zelda, and Metroid for the first time. As Nintendo grew as a company and managed to somehow obscure themselves during the N64 and Gamecube era, I started realizing that while Sony and now Microsoft changed to conform to the flavor of the month, I was constantly surprised with the ingenuity and how much many of my favorite Nintendo games strayed from the norm. Looking at my game library...sure, it's full of RPG's (which, believe it or not, are fairly mainstream and have a decently large market over here these days...they're not the black sheep games they were during the NES/SNES era), obscure rhythm games, and just plain old genre breakers such as Katamari and the like on my PSX/PS2. But then I look at my Nintendo consoles and I have equally odd games...games such as Blast Corps, Donkey Kong Jungle Beat, Cubivore, Goemon (Mystical Ninja) games, Mischeif Makers, etc. In fact, I'd have to say the ratio of relatively obscure games (or financial flop but terrific game) vs. mainstream games is much higher on my Nintendo consoles than on my Sony systems.

      It may be that you prefer the type of non-standard games that the Playstation invites vs. the type of obscure game that Nintendo consoles invite, but to say Nintendo consoles don't cater to non-standard tastes is slightly confusing as their consoles attract some of the most non-standard games I've ever seen.
    • by joe 155 (937621)
      firstly, don't pay £40 for games, I got the new mario football game for under £30 just the other day off ASDAs site - if you shop around you'll never have to pay more than £35 (Amazon is cheap...). Other than that Mario does have online play, so get that.

      There will be more online games as time goes by but I'm not convinced that its even desirable to have online play on all games... I've got it on quite a few DS games and don't use it that often at all.
  • by josquint (193951) on Wednesday May 30, 2007 @10:13AM (#19321083) Homepage
    I'd play ALOT more a year from now, as I figure that's about when i'll finally get my hands on one!
    • I've not heard of a game coming out for the Wii called "ALOT", and I just got my Wii update from Nintendo in e-mail yesterday. I know that Alot [wikipedia.org] is the name of a town in India, but ... OOH! Is this going to be some kind of Indiana Jones type of adventure game with the key being the mystical town of Alot? Now my curiosity is piqued!

      I hope to play ALOT a year from now, too. Does anyone know who the developer and publisher are?

      [/SARCASM] :P
    • by Dan Ost (415913)
      I was at Target on Sunday and they had at least 3 Wii's for sale. This is in Memphis, TN. I thought about grabbing one, but decided against it.
      • I was at a Target in Scranton, PA a few weeks ago. They had twelve for sale on a Saturday afternoon. I've had one since November and I had serious considerations to getting one, but I decided against getting it. Now, in retrospect, I probably should have if only for family members in other states who don't have one but have been looking for it. Oh, well. :/
  • by svendsen (1029716) on Wednesday May 30, 2007 @10:13AM (#19321085)
    Analysts make sweeping unfounded generalizations to get their daily 15 mins. Must be a slow news day for Slashdot.

    The Wii is here to stay and dominate. Especially once they start doing some cool DS to Wii integration. It's base is huge, is constantly growing and still a huge demand which outpaces the supply.

    I have no interest in one but may be buying one once Animal Crossing 2 comes out (its like crack for my fiancé). Unless Nintendo comes out and says they kick puppies, love Nazis, and wipe their ass with every nations flag in the world they are not likely to drop the ball.

  • I've still never even seen one. We're what, six months after launch now? This is the biggest, longest discussion I've ever completely missed out on. I'm not going to sleep outside of stores or get raped on ebay just to join in, either.

    Maybe (*maybe*) when Mario finally comes out I'll take another look at store shelves to see if there are any available at that point, but until then, my interest has disappeared.
    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by tomstdenis (446163)
      Bingo. If anything will be the undoing of the Wii it's that. People like you and I who just get frustrated of waiting and buy a different console which is readily available. (or none at all).

      And frankly, that we keep having threads about "The wii is dying" kinda makes me think that the others are just scared of the competition so they spread this fud around. The wii is a fine console, both capable of decent graphics and immersive gaming. The only really shitty thing about it [other than the small game l
      • by CastrTroy (595695)
        I found one at the local EBGames this weekend. No waiting list. I just made a point of checking if they had one every time i was in the mall. About once every couple of weeks. I'm not sure if I was just lucky, but I think that in the next couple of months they'll be a lot easier to find. Last I read they sold 7.2 million, compared to 10.2 million for the XBox 360 that was released a year before it. Sales like that mean it will be hard to get. But if you keep looking you will find one. I don't see wh
      • Re: (Score:2, Informative)

        by toddian (997999)

        What I don't understand is that here in Australia, there is no waiting list.

        None.

        I walked into a store the other day, and asked how long the waiting list was. The reply? About 30 seconds for the credit card to run through.

        Reading the comments around here I'm thinking that eBay is looking real good (although I'd need to send a PAL TV with it).

    • Re:I wouldn't know (Score:5, Insightful)

      by theStorminMormon (883615) <theStorminMormon AT gmail DOT com> on Wednesday May 30, 2007 @10:23AM (#19321219) Homepage Journal
      I'm not going to sleep outside of stores or get raped on ebay just to join in, either.

      I just checked every time I walked through Wal-Mart or Target (once or twice a week) and after a couple of trips I picked one up. There were 3 or 4 in the case. I haven't looked as much since then, but I think anyone who takes the trouble to just look around a bit ought to be able to get one. Then again, maybe I just got really, really lucky.

      In any case, I am not super-impressed with the titles so far. The Wii Sports game is a lot of fun (tried it out on my non-video gaming parents last weekend, they were hooked) and Super Paper Mario is also a lot of fun. But I'm still not extremely psyched about the titles coming out. (For comparison, I own a 360 as well and my favorite game so far is Call of Duty 2 and I have the legendary edition of Halo 3 (yes - the $125 one) on reserve).

      I will say that there's one point to consider: Nintendo is in a much better position to come out with a new system before MS or Sony can. I think we're talking what 5 years? 7? until we see Xbox 720 and PS4. I would be shocked if Nintendo doesn't come out with their own hi-def capable system in 3 or 4.
      • I predict they'll do the same thing they did with the DS and GBA, come out with a hi-def capable Wii with DVD playback in a year or two, drop the price of the current Wii dramatically and place the new one at the previous price point. Consumers will eat it up because they get a still-inexpensive system with increased functionality. Nintendo wins because they can put out the same console two or three times with very good, but quite easy, upgrades.
        • I think that's possible as well, but I'm wondering if they will be tempted to leap frog the PS3 and 360. That should be possible fairly easily (for cheap) in 3 or 4 years. They have chosen to go for casual first, but I think they will be tempted to pick up more hard-core cred if they can on the cheap.
      • by eln (21727)
        I got a Wii because my wife called the Gamestop down the street and they told her when their next shipment would be coming in, so she went there and waited an hour for the UPS truck.

        Personally, I loved Super Paper Mario. Wii Sports is okay, but does get a little old after a while. I do still pick it up occasionally to play tennis though. Once you figure out how to hit home runs consistently, Baseball is really boring though. We'll be picking up Mario Party 8 today, so we'll see how we like that.

        To us, t
    • Ummm dude? I was just out yesturday browsing game stores (for an entirely different reason, I've had a Wii since launch and it's great) and every store had Wii's on the shelf. Even GameDaze, GAMEDAZE, the people who were selling pre-order Wiimotes because they had sold out their stock before the launch had Wiis on the shelf.

      If you're unwilling to even look at a couple of stores (I hit 6 in my quest to help a friend get a certain old XBox game, Circuit City had them, Best Buy had them, Gamedaze had them, I t
      • by fotbr (855184)
        You'd lose that bet.

        Of course, within a couple miles of me there's one Walmart. The closest Target is 100 miles away, as is the closest Best Buy, Circuit City, and EBGames/Gamestop.

        But, I'm not whining about it -- I'll pick up a Wii and PS3 eventually, but I'm in no hurry to. I don't even have a 360 yet since the only place nearby (the Walmart) can only keep the "core" version on the shelves. None of the consoles are worth driving around trying to find one.
      • by Wdomburg (141264)
        If they're in stock for your area, it's highly unusual by most accounts. With the exception of bundles no online vendor has had them in stock for any length of time since launch and plenty of cities have no local stock. Friends both local and remote reported taking weeks to find them, even polling local vendors daily. Often when stock did come in it was already sold by the time they got to the store.
  • by Stevecrox (962208) on Wednesday May 30, 2007 @10:20AM (#19321175) Journal
    There is no news here, analysts have long bashed the Wii because its graphics aren't that great and for the moment their aren't any games. They do have a point after two or three years the Wii is going to be seriously outdated (graphically) while there could be some really great games over the next year or two. But I get the feeling that Nintendo will release an updated Wii (Wii Advanced? Wii Advanced SP?) to compensate. Kudo's to Nintendo for selling so many units but just how long is your product aimed to last? I know a PS3 will still be around in ten years (aparently.)

    The comments that Sony and Microsoft don't get the casual gamer market are laughable, Sixaxis was an attempt to steal the WiiMotes thunder. Buzz, Singstar, Guitar Hero and Eye Toy are all products on the PS2 for the casual gamer and they sell really well. What Sony/Microsoft lack are mini games, to think they won't see that they need is to expand their casual game base of course they don't know that (*cough* XboX360 has Guitar Hero *cough* Singstar downloads for PS3 *cough.)
    • by tomstdenis (446163) <tomstdenis@@@gmail...com> on Wednesday May 30, 2007 @10:24AM (#19321231) Homepage
      Graphics will become outdated? Or you mean the other haters will overhype their 500W GPUs to shadow their other shortcomings? I dunno, I guess I must be the ONLY person who still plays retro games from the 80s and 90s.

      Only non-innovators push their GPU strength as the main selling point. Let me guess, the PS4 will consume twice the energy, require it's own air conditioning unit, and be able to render 2600x1400 images at 200fps? OMG CRAZIES!

      Tom
      • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

        by Stevecrox (962208)
        Ready for this...
        People's expectations increase, games are advertised on TV and some of them are looking extremely good. PS3 and Xbox360 have the potential to offer photorealistic looking games. If you think it won't matter why is there a Gameboy Advanced or Gameboy Advanced SP? Why is there DS? While the DS gives an interesting input, the advanced releases were merely updated forms of the Gameboy Colour in different packaging.

        What I think will happen over the next three or four years the PS3/Xbox360 p
        • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

          Point 1: Casual Games

          Microsoft and Sony showed lip service to casual games prior to launch. Assuming they started development of oodles of casual games 3 months post-Wii, we're still a good year or two away from seeing the fruits of that labor.

          The people whom these games are aimed at already know "Wii". These are the same people who, given a management position in charge of a database, will stick to the same obsolete technology because that's what they're familiar with. They aren't going to be dropping thei
          • by trdrstv (986999) on Wednesday May 30, 2007 @07:00PM (#19329585)

            Point 1: Casual Games

            Microsoft and Sony showed lip service to casual games prior to launch. Assuming they started development of oodles of casual games 3 months post-Wii, we're still a good year or two away from seeing the fruits of that labor.

            Ironically no. XBLA has a MUCH better selection of games for casual gamers than Nintendo's VC, or main library. This is despite the VC already having more titles available. Nintendo needs more casual titles in the mix, and they simply aren't there yet, despite the console being MUCH more casual friendly than the PS3 or 360.

            The people whom these games are aimed at already know "Wii". These are the same people who, given a management position in charge of a database, will stick to the same obsolete technology because that's what they're familiar with. They aren't going to be dropping their Wiimotes for PS3 or Xbox controllers (even if they can tell you what an xbox is). There isn't mental room for more than one system at a time for many of these people, and right now they and everyone they know have "Wii" sitting there.

            To say there isn't 'mental room' for more than 1 console, is rather demeaning, but I do agree that people tend to stick with what is 'familiar'. This is the Wii's #1 issue with the gaming press, Nintendo is challenging what they are confortable with. If the Wii becomes the dominant player in the market (like the PS2 did) then the market will shift in ways they don't like.

            To summarize this point, there aren't any games my uncle or aunt would want to play on a 360 or PS3, but my uncle did bruise his finger sinking a ball in WiiPlay because he exuberantly thrust his hand upwards into the ceiling fan.

            This I doubt. XBLA has Solitare, Bejeweled, Online Poker, Online Uno, Online Hearts... The issue isn't that they don't exist it's that it does not exist to them. It's like having the food they enjoy served at the wrong resteraunt where (for whatever reason) they simply won't go to eat.

            To summarize my point, it doesn't matter if the PS360 adds a ton of casual games, and marginalizes the price difference AND even bolts on their own Wiimote like controller... These systems will not gain the Mindshare back from Nintendo. Nintendo is bringing people in with a fun, intuitive system that they are confortable to use. Once that mindset gets established brand loyalty strengthens and the other systems effectively don't exist.

            People shop for a Wii, not a 'Video game system' much in the same way people shop for an iPod and not an 'MP3 player'.

        • by Wdomburg (141264)
          Anecdotes are nice. Hard numbers are nicer. North American sales of the PSP dropped from 183k to 181k the month after they dropped the price, while Nintendo DS sales remained steady at 471k. In Japan the situation is even worse for Sony, with the DS consistently outselling the PSP more than five to one.
        • by ookaze (227977)

          People's expectations increase, games are advertised on TV and some of them are looking extremely good

          Sorry to tell you that games are not sold by how good they look alone. Seems to be a common misconception nowadays.
          To this date, the console that won each generation was the less powerful in graphics, so your point is shattered already.

          PS3 and Xbox360 have the potential to offer photorealistic looking games

          OK, now the Wii sells faster and doesn't offer photorealistic looking games. The PS2 doesn't either and sells faster too BTW.

          If you think it won't matter why is there a Gameboy Advanced or Gameboy Advanced SP? Why is there DS?

          Huh? You actually believe the only improvements in GBA and DS was graphics?
          Do you even understand games?

          What I think will happen over the next three or four years the PS3/Xbox360 price will drop, as the gap between the Wii, PS3 and Xbox360 decreases the reason for a Wii decrease and the differences will as well

          While the library of Wii games will grow in

          • by arieswind (789699) *

            Sorry to tell you that games are not sold by how good they look alone. Seems to be a common misconception nowadays. To this date, the console that won each generation was the less powerful in graphics, so your point is shattered already.
            kinda not true... only the n64 started that trend both the nes and snes were more powerful than their competitors
        • To believe that MS and PS3 won't heavily invest in more casual games (considering the trouncing their getting) is pointless. Once those consoles have better casual gamer expearence you start taking away its advantages, the biggest disadvantage will be its graphics.

          I think one thing that you're missing is that the Wii controller is central to its casual gaming experience and expanded market. When you take a person who has never played a video game in their life (or maybe not since the Atari 2600 at parties

      • Actually, I'd think in about 3-4 years the graphics of the new games will look rather pale in comparison to other offerings. Not that there's anything wrong with retro games (I play them myself), people tend to look for the next new thing.

        I don't think it'd be too much of a longshot to expect an updated Wii when chips that push 1080 lines become low power and low cost rather than bleeding edge and 3-4 years sounds about right for that.
      • by British (51765)
        Only non-innovators push their GPU strength as the main selling point. Let me guess, the PS4 will consume twice the energy, require it's own air conditioning unit, and be able to render 2600x1400 images at 200fps? OMG CRAZIES!

        Not only that, it will only be able to be afforded by the richest kings of Europe.
    • by Tridus (79566)
      Microsoft doesn't get the casual gamer.

      Sony does better, on the PS2. The PS3 is way too expensive to even be considered as something a casual gamer might buy.
    • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

      by grapeape (137008)
      But what do Buzz, Singstar, Guitar Hero and Eye Toy have in common? They all have a gimic that requires accessories, most casual gamers wont buy them specifically for that reason. Casual gamers tend to pick up games that are less expensive and have cool covers. Thats where nintendo has the edge, their "gimic" is built in, nothing else to buy, no added expense for addons and no real learning curve.
    • by springbox (853816)
      Maybe they could call it the Wii Too.
    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      by Anonymous Coward
      "They do have a point after two or three years the Wii is going to be seriously outdated (graphically)..."

      Yeah, but early PS2 games looked like shit compared the Dreamcast, late PS2 games looked weak compared to the Xbox or Cube, and PS2 games were always blown away by the PC. The DS has laughable graphics compared to a PSP. The Wii and PS2 look seriously outdated right now compared to the 360 or PS3 yet are still selling very well. Graphics mean very little as far as popularity is concerned.
    • by Quila (201335)
      A large portion of current Wii games, including Zelda, are basically Game Cube ports with reworked controls. Expect graphics on Wii games to get better.
    • by LWATCDR (28044) on Wednesday May 30, 2007 @11:00AM (#19321831) Homepage Journal
      I think you are missing it.
      The Wii's graphics are currently good enough. They will be good enough for a good number of years.
      The Wii's strengths are that it is fun and it is cheap. I have a feeling Mario Party is going to be at the top of the sales charts. I have my Wii hooked up to my HDTV and guess what? The graphics are just fine for me.
      I still have a sneaking feeling that there will be a WiiSP or a super by 2010 or 2011. It will play all the Wii and GC Games and support HD graphics. It will cost about $250 an probably have more CPU and GPU power than the 360 or PS3. Sure Microsoft and Sony will be working on their next gen by then but just like the Gameboy the Wii will just keep selling and selling because it is the right solution at the right price. I think Nintendo wants to keep the price of a console around $200. To do that it shorten the cycle but keep compatibility.

    • by brkello (642429)
      I know this is Slashdot, but you may want to read the summary. It is questioning Sony and MS and saying that more people will be playing the Wii in the future since the more hardcore games have yet to come out.

      Yeah, if you only read the title, maybe you would come to the conclusion...but titles on here are and have been horrible.
    • by vux984 (928602)
      after two or three years the Wii is going to be seriously outdated (graphically)

      5 years from now people are going to look at Halo3 and say, it looks pretty good for the time, but its dated now. They couldn't get the physics quite right, and see here how the shadows aren't perfect. And the face still looks plastic... but it was the best they could do.

      Super Paper Mario on the other hand, like 'the Simpsons' TV show looks exactly the way the authors wanted it too.

      The Wii isn't going to be able to keep up with
  • by justinbach (1002761) on Wednesday May 30, 2007 @10:20AM (#19321181) Homepage
    So...on the one hand, we have a couple of analysts vying for first prize in the unorthodox-opinion contest, because, well, because it's their job to sensationalize things so people talk about their opinions, and on the other, we have the head of one major gaming company that has taken an brilliantly unorthodox strategy (and done very well by it) questioning his competitors' ability to continue to succeed in the market.

    C'mon, guys, all that we accomplish by publishing non-news like this is giving both parties exactly what they're looking for in free publicity. Adding together two non-stories doesn't create a story unless there's some really interesting counterpoint, and here all we have is a parallel phrase structure in "questions staying power".

    I'm not trying to flame here or anything, I'm just saying that I think we could at least do a little better than this. Analysts and senior figures are always going to try and get themselves into headlines by saying controversial things; is it to much to ask that we don't actively facilitate this behavior?
  • by Tridus (79566) on Wednesday May 30, 2007 @10:22AM (#19321213) Homepage
    Are these the same analysts who predicted that Nintendo would be a distant third this cycle?

    Funny how you don't see them making a statement of "Oops, sorry we had no clue what the hell we were talking about."

    These analysts are as good at predicting the future as any random person off the street, they just get paid a lot more.
    • by Ant P. (974313)
      Random people off the street are _more_ accurate, because they're not getting bribed to spread propaganda in the first place.
    • by malsdavis (542216)
      "These analysts are as good at predicting the future as any random person off the street, they just get paid a lot more."

      That's quite an ironic statement really considering that the predictions are based on polls, so the predictions are in fact the (collective) ones of "random people off the street".

      The problem imho is that - with the exception of a small subset of people - most don't realistically know whether they will actually be playing x system in a year's time, There are also many possible ulterior re
  • Nintendo makes money, Microsoft and Sony hemorrhage it till they can get enough systems in enough hands to turn a profit on licensing for software... At this point neither company is even close to that goal while Nintendo is still seeing a huge demand for a system that makes a profit on every sale. Couple with the DS and Nintendo has a huge warchest.

    If Sony and Microsoft cant pull larger profits, they will be gone, no matter HOW good the system is. No matter what they want to say about the Wii's staying p

    • What you're forgetting is Microsoft and Sony have many other divisions that (can) pull major profits. Especially Microsoft with Windows and the Office lines. They could give away 360s and not hurt the bottom line too much.

      Nintendo's warchest is peanuts compared to Sony and MS. That's what allows Sony and MS to hemorrhage at the seams; their game division is but one of many. They won't leave this game simply because that one division isn't turning a profit this quarter or year. Nintendo lives or dies by
      • What you're forgetting is Microsoft and Sony have many other divisions that (can) pull major profits. Especially Microsoft with Windows and the Office lines. They could give away 360s and not hurt the bottom line too much.
        Thats a falicy. For one thing it STILL is red ink when you get your stockholders report. Stockholders are going to see it and say "why are you funneling that much money into something not turning a profit" Ultimately if the trend continues, they would have made more profit NOT being in the gaming business with a system than being in it, which stockholders dont like to see.

        Nintendo's warchest is peanuts compared to Sony and MS. That's what allows Sony and MS to hemorrhage at the seams; their game division is but one of many. They won't leave this game simply because that one division isn't turning a profit this quarter or year. Nintendo lives or dies by its games division since that's all it has.
        But its bad business for Microsoft and Sony to go into their warchest BECAUSE of the fact that they are a company with multiple lines. Stockholders will want answers when their profits are being spent on futile endeavorers, your continuing to miss that point. A Company pulling money out of its coffer to support a failing or faltering division is a one way ticket to its value being lowered, and its masters being out on their ass. Nintendo has a out on this fact because they only have ONE division. They dont have to manage multiple divisions, and they dont have to justify keeping a division open thats tanking. Microsoft and Sony can and have. Apple when they where retaken over by Jobs lost a huge number of their divisions for exactly this fact, because their profits where being spent supporting their losses. Oh and to put it in perspective, while Microsoft and Sony both are huge companies, their gaming divisions are roughly much smaller than Nintendo.
    • by Dan Ost (415913)
      If the PS3 never turns a profit, but because of the PS3, Blu-Ray wins the HD format war, is the PS3 a success or a failure from Sony's point of view?
      • ultimately success I think in Sony's eyes. But I also think ultimately there is not going to be enough of a push from either format to really matter. Both formats are looking more like minidisks than they are CDs or DVDs.
  • by grapeape (137008) <mpope7@kc . r r . c om> on Wednesday May 30, 2007 @10:26AM (#19321273) Homepage
    I am bored with my Wii at the moment but my wife and daughters who never play anything beyond popcap games on the web are still playing it regularly. I dont have many games and do play it alot when I get a new one, but they dont seem to have the staying power with me that they do on the rest of the family. Nintendo really has managed to capture an untapped market and because of that I think you can toss probabilities and gamer opinion out the window, its not a gamers console, its a non-gamers console. That may change as more high profile titles are released, but so far my wife and my parents (who picked up their own after their last visit) would be happy if nintendo just kept cranking out minigames. My mother mentioned that what her Wii really needed was a trivia game and some board games. There are so many of the non-gamer genre's out there that are untouched and dont have to rely on gimics. Imagine "Pictionary" where you could sketch the "clue" on the screen with the remote, the secret word could be given quietly via the remote speaker. Maybe Wheel of Fortune where you can zap away the letters to select them, chess where you can just point to the piece you want to move, Jeopardy using the remote as the buzzer, the possibilites are endless.

    Regardless of the AAA "hardcore" titles that come out later, the Wii has all the possibiilty of being the casual gamers ultimate game center.
    • N'Gai Croal made an interesting question based on sales of Brain Age and Big Brain Academy.

      Brain Age sales are still pretty high, and has sustainability - people play it for a loooong time (my wife still pulls it out from time to time now to play Soduku). But for one game, it has sales that just keep on going.

      Kind of reminds me of your family and mine. My children (ages 8, 5 and 2) discovered Mario 64 when I picked it upon a whim, and they want to play it nearly every day. For Nintendo, then, making a pr
    • by kabocox (199019)
      I dont have many games and do play it alot when I get a new one, but they dont seem to have the staying power with me that they do on the rest of the family. Nintendo really has managed to capture an untapped market and because of that I think you can toss probabilities and gamer opinion out the window, its not a gamers console, its a non-gamers console.

      One of these days, I'm going to have to get one of those things. We've got a PS2 and a N64. My kids spend more time on the N64 playing the two versions of L
  • by chad.koehler (859648) on Wednesday May 30, 2007 @10:28AM (#19321315)
    I guess I could be considered a "hardcore" gamer... Been playing games since the early 80's and never really stopped. It's nothing to log close to 100 hours in a good RPG.
    That in mind, I wanted a Wii from when I first saw it, looked to be a very fun system that would give a chance to be more "social".
    I would casually look for one from time to time - then last month, one showed up at my local Walmart (very small store, not one of the new big ones), and I picked it up along with Zelda TP.
    Immediately, I began to see the way the console changed the way people around me thought of video games... My wife is absolutely hooked on Wii sports, and the neighbors come by at least a couple nights a week for some tennis or bowling. Most interesting however, was the interest of my parents. Both nearly 60, they never liked video games in the past. Could never even get them to try one out. The Wii was different. They watched my wife and I play a game of tennis, and wanted to try for themselves. Now, every time they stop by there will be quite a few games of bowling played.

    You shouldn't underestimate the attention span of the casual gamer, look how long SOL.EXE has been around.
    • by Tom (822)
      Lots of people tell the same story. Me included, regarding the parents part. And the neighbour part. Regarding the neighbour part, consider this: If you tell the cute girl next door that you'll be playing Starcraft 2 tonight, chances are she'll consider you an antisocial jerk and you'll never even get to take her to lunch. If you tell her you'll be playing tennis or bowling, and invite her over, then chances are that next time she will be asking you if you would mind spending the evening together.
  • "[They] not[ed] that 31% of Wii owners surveyed"

    not?

    What could the actual unredacted quote have been, in context?

  • Absurdity (Score:3, Insightful)

    by EMeta (860558) on Wednesday May 30, 2007 @10:37AM (#19321447)
    The true absurdity of the analysts' positions is the very idea of percentage of market share. News Flash: some gamers will have more than one console. In the Super Nintendo, PS1, and even PS2 era, it made a certain amount of sense to only have one console. Gamers were younger, less affluent, and while there were certainly differences between the options available, said difference wasn't that much.

    In this age, however, things are different. Want to play with your friends in one spot? You want a Wii. Want to play with friends across the country? Get an XBox360. Want, um, well, uh, a huge selection of very good titles? Get a PS2. Want to [hmm, I'm trying here!] almost successfully buy your estranged step children's love? Get them a PS3.

    My point being that there is certainly room for more than one console--yes, maybe even three as sad as that would be for those of us who aren't quite as affluent. This is a different ballgame from the 90's. Stop the bickering & just enjoy the games.

    • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

      by dopplex (242543)
      The % of market share is actually quite relevant. It isn't about whether or not someone has multiple consoles - I suppose that's vaguely interesting, but it's not particularly relevant to the purpose of this sort of market share.

      Market share indicates the relative market sizes that can potentially be hit by a release on a given platform. Higher market share = more consoles in the hands of consumers = more consumers who can potentially buy your game.

      A more complex analysis can be done, certainly - but it s
      • by grumbel (592662)
        ### Market share indicates the relative market sizes that can potentially be hit by a release on a given platform. Higher market share = more consoles in the hands of consumers = more consumers who can potentially buy your game.

        True, but one factor that people often tend to forget is that PS3, XBox360 and to a lesser degree the PC really are one market while Nintendo with the Wii is the other market. A quick look at the coming games shows that when they go multiplatform, which many do, they go XBox360, PS3
  • That must be why titles like Buzz and Singstar topped the charts over here, then.

    No, wait...
  • And that the Wii peters out in four years. A new console will be introduced with HD capability etc. So, you use your 250 buck console for four years and get a new one. By contrast, will the 360 and PS3 be relevant in 8 years? How about 6? In terms of bang for the buck, even if the Wii doesn't last as long as the other two, it is still a better buy. It costs much less so in the end, it doesn't have to have the staying power anyway.

    The real question is how much fun do you have with it? The games are coming, e
    • by Sciros (986030)
      I got my premium 360 for $300 (MicroCenter's had this deal going on for ages), and with the Wii's controllers (+nunchuck) being more expensive than the 360's, I can't say the Wii "costs much less." In fact it *barely* costs any less.
      • by trdrstv (986999)

        I got my premium 360 for $300 (MicroCenter's had this deal going on for ages), and with the Wii's controllers (+nunchuck) being more expensive than the 360's, I can't say the Wii "costs much less." In fact it *barely* costs any less.

        I won't dispute that the price differential isn't Vast, but it must be noted that the Wiimote is the only controller nessessary. The 360's wired controller is the same cost as the Wiimote, and the Nunchcuck is an optional accessory for most games (IE: not required to play).

  • by LordZardoz (155141) on Wednesday May 30, 2007 @10:48AM (#19321625)
    There are alot of gamers who bought the Wii, cracked out on Zelda and Wii Sports, and are now waiting for other games worth playing to show up. The publishers, meanwhile, are trying to figure out who exactly is buying these Wii's.

    Nintendo has set its self up to be able to ration out what it considers strong releases, but has history has proven, what it considers to be strong is often not what traditional gamers will go for (Warioware, Mario Strikers Charged). And of course, its monster hits have not materialized yet (Metroid, Mario Galaxies, Smash Brothers Brawl).

    On the flip side of it, the 3rd parties are rushing to step up. But they did so a bit too late, so we are getting alot of ports of PS2 and Xbox games. The 3rd parties are going to try their hand at the casual games, of course, but it may yet be a while before they start showing up with the kind of games that the traditional gamers want.

    Demand has been quite strong though, so I have no doubts that we will see the kinds of games we want. The real question is whether the publishers will be able to make any money at it. There is a very real danger of all the more traditional games only showing up on the 360 or PS3.

    There are a great many Wii's being sold, but until everyone figures out who the hell is buying them, there will be a lull. Are they being bought by Core gamers who also own a XBox 360, or Casual gamers who are only ever going to play Wii Sports? Either of those does not help the Wii in the long term.

    END COMMUNICATION
  • Longevity does not mean that the Wii will be the dominant console in this race. All the metrics that they discussed "Will you be playing the Wii in a year from now?" depends on new content being created worth playing. As long as Nintendo is the only decent publisher of games for the system, the Wii can be a viable system for a long time without being "the winner".

    Their handheld systems have clearly shown the demand for retro games, and their Virtual Console fits that bill perfectly. However, playing the L
  • My 500 shares of Nintendo stock bought at E3 from proceeds from Sony stock say no.

    But I will predict, in 2009, when HDTV becomes mainstream (e.g. market share of more than 50 percent in US), that if Nintendo doesn't have a new console utilizing HDTV, then they should start worrying.

    But for now, I'm just raking in the stock growth.

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