Wii 'Popularity Bubble' to Burst?

A combination of industry and developer observations has prompted Tech.co.uk to wonder if the Wii's overwhelming popularity is due to end sometime soon. This is based on a report from Japanese business newspaper The Nikkei, which published an article recently entitled 'Software Houses Miscalculate Audience, Demand For Wii'. "The report goes on to discuss the likelihood that many Wiis are gathering dust in owners' cupboards, citing one software house president as saying, 'People bought it out of curiosity, and it's likely a lot of them haven't used it.' Given that September saw Wii sales fall sharply in Japan for the second consecutive month, it seems reasonable to speculate that the bubble inflated by the novelty factor is starting to deflate, but writing Nintendo off at any stage is a perilous course to steer." Is this just worrying, or is there validity to this?

Sort of

[orclevegam]

Have I played my Wii much recently? Not really. I beat Metroid Prime 3, and that was fun, but other than that not to much out there interests me right now. Of course, by the same token I've played my PS2 even less than my Wii. I just don't have much time right now to spend on gaming consoles. When something like Smash Bros, or Mario Kart hits I'm sure it will see more use.

Oh please.

[Naelok]

With all the heavy hitters that Wii has lined up in the next few months, one can only conclude that this article is BS. I bet these are the same 'analysts' who predicted that Nintendo would remain a distant third last year at about this time. They were wrong then and they're wrong now.

Who could've guessed!?

[el_chupanegre]

Welcome to 4 months ago. That's the last time I bought a game for mine.

It was fun at first, and my dad still asks me to play a game of golf with him on it, but seriously, the novelty wears off very quickly.

I think most of the problem stems from the lack of original gameplay. The games that I bought were ones that just wouldn't work nearly as well with a different control scheme. Kororinpa is the best example. Using the wiimote to move the screen around is very intuitive and very fun.

But look at the raft of games coming out at the moment: Fifa 2008, Madden 08 and about 6 different kid's films adaptations. What makes me get this for my Wii instead of my 360? The control scheme is the Wii's only advantage, and what advantage does it have in anything that's coming out at the moment?

Most of the time when they do try and take advantage of the controls, it comes off worse anyway. Apparently Trauma Centre: Second Opinion is just far too fiddly and how many of us have stood spinning in a circle looking at the sky in an FPS?

I would love to see this succeed because for once someone tried something new, but with a lack of original content, what could you possibly achieve over the competition? To be honest, we all saw this coming

A similar case?

[metroid composite]

In the months leading up to the release of Halo 3, XBox 360s dropped and dropped in monthly sales.

In the months leading up to the release of [Super Mario Galaxy], [Wiis] dropped and dropped in monthly sales.


Not to say the Wii's popularity isn't dropping, I just think it's too early to draw a definitive conclusion here.

Re:Nintendo's new motto:

[woohoodonuts]

Bored and worried about saving for Christmas, would be more correct. While I'm still excited about the wii, I'm also sitting around waiting for the new mario Galaxy game to be released. I finished beating Zelda, never was too fond of 1st person shooters (Metroid Prime) and so am left with a small gap until the holiday season allows my game spending budget to pick up another game or two. Since I only buy a few games a year, I don't take changes. When Brawl and Galaxy come out, I'll buy. Since Nintendo has cultivated a mostly Non-hardcore gamer market, the majority of their customers are only going to buy the AAA titles because that's what they hear about in the media. Most of those will be released in the coming months.

Re:Redirect shipments...

[Anonymous Coward]

The Wii will be in short supply for the next few weeks. They have postponed the current orders because they are rolling out a new model to thwart the modchips. They have told the stores that there's a fault in the design of those already being sold, and the new model will be out for the end of October.

So unless your chosen store has stock right now, it'll be a good couple of weeks before they see new inventory. Of course, there are tons on ebay.

Re:That's what I thought about the Dreamcast too

[orclevegam]

Well, I'm proud to say, I was partially right there. My Dreamcast still works flawlessly. Hasn't had a new game made for it for a damn long time now, though.

Not strictly true. Hasn't had a US game made in a long time, but it's still possible to get new releases for it from Japan. At least as of a year ago, I think I heard somewhere that they finally stopped making Dreamcast games even in Japan recently.

Re:Really bad assumptions

[cowscows]

There's a couple things at work for the Wii here I think. First off, the supply of games has been a bit slow, likely due to miscalculations by lots of developers not expecting the Wii to take off the way it did. But on the other hand, the PS3 doesn't have a huge flood of games either, and it more hype than I'd ever seen. It's still early in the lives of both consoles.

Second, Nintendo's "casual gamer" idea seems to really be happening, and the usage patterns of a "casual" hobbiest(is that a word?) are irregular and can leave a console sitting idle. My tennis racket has been sitting untouched in the garage for a couple years, but that doesn't mean that I don't like tennis or that tennis isn't popular. It means that I don't have time to play tennis anymore.

And third, sort of connected to the casual gamer deal, a good number of the games that are out are geared towards more casual and social play, so it's difficult for a hardcore gamer to sit down and spend entire days playing it.

From the point of view of a traditional hardcore gamer, those three things might look pretty discouraging for the Wii. But what Nintendo has discovered is that to have a successful console, it's not really necessary to give that sort of gamer everything they want. A couple months of sales fluctuations to not make a trend, and it seems silly to try and figure that sort of stuff out right now, when the big christmas season is right around the corner.

Re:Who could've guessed!?

[metamatic]

The control scheme is the Wii's only advantage, and what advantage does it have in anything that's coming out at the moment?

The control scheme makes a world of difference in Metroid Prime 3.

Not True

[bogie]

That isn't true with regards to the Xbox. They did 155K in May, 170K in July, 276K in August. September is expected to be higher and I'm sure the trend will continue till Jan. Here is a nice chart for you. http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/multimedia/display/20070914235723.html [xbitlabs.com]

Re:Redirect shipments...

[Anonymous Coward]

My wife has been trying to get one for months. The store shelves are bare, the store amanger says that they can't keep them in stock, they sell out instantly. And we thought we'd beat he Christmas rush early ...(this is in Austin TX).

Re:Nintendo's new motto:

[mahdi13]

First time I played Zelda TP I couldn't stop thinking how much it was like Metroid Prime except in third person...

That's really the only difference other then story between them. Weapon upgrades, new items to access new locations you couldn't get to before, beat a big boss to get new items/power ups. I know lots of anti-FPS people that love Metriod Prime because it's more of a platformer then a shooter.
And constantly shooting at things is a terrible argument, ever play Xevious? That wasn't first person

Re:Redirect shipments...

[hedwards]

Even if the bubble did pop somewhat, the majority of the money in consoles is games anyway. Nintendo makes money with every game sold, whether it be directly or through a license.

The other bit is that Wiis sitting in closets have nothing to do with new sales. People don't generally buy a second unit unless the previous one is lost, stolen or broken. Just having one sitting around idle.

At this point, I'd chalk it up to FUD. People may very well be waiting for the holiday season to buy them as well

Re:Poor timing

[Jarjarthejedi]

"February != the Christmas season."

Smash Bros wasn't the only anticipated game release this Q4 though

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Mario_Galaxy [wikipedia.org]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resident_Evil:_The_Umbrella_Chronicles [wikipedia.org]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guitar_Hero_III:_Legends_of_Rock [wikipedia.org]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LEGO_Star_Wars:_The_Complete_Saga [wikipedia.org]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fire_Emblem:_Radiant_Dawn [wikipedia.org]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghost_Squad [wikipedia.org]
(Ugh... /.'s html formatting is so much different than php forum formatting...)

Re:The better question

[SoCalEd]

Hope it does mean more availability. Three of my work colleagues have been hunting for one to no avail. Oh yeah: That's an attorney (male, 45 y.o.), an accountant (mid-30's, female) and an IT guy (mid-20's hardcore gamer).

This little box has a lot of broad appeal. Mine? No dust. Had it since January and still play it 4 or 5 hours a week, but only because I don't have more time. Beat Zelda, finished Paper Mario, almost done with RE4. Metroid is next. Also, I keep coming back to Tiger Woods. But my wife and I honestly get the most replay value out of bowling, billiards and tennis. I'll admit there aren't too many other titles out there I'm itching to play at the moment, but I've got such value out of the ones I've picked (with IGN's help) that I am happy to wait for the pipeline to get going.

Others have said it, I'll concur: graphics be damned. If the games make you smile, people will line up for them.

Re:Who could've guessed!?

[ElleyKitten]

The DS had that problem at first too. But eventually, developers got used to the new controls and it got some awesome games. The Wii's had some dry spots, but it's got some really good games and it's going to have a good Christmas. Upcoming it has Fire Emblem, Resident Evil, Mario Galaxy, Soul Calibur Legends, Mario & Sonic Olympics, and NiGHTS (and other exclusives - check out IGN's release list), and you should check out Super Paper Mario and Metroid if you haven't already. There's a lot of original content for Wii, and there will be a whole lot more. Don't give up on it.

This is the problem with purists.

[Mahjub Sa'aden]

This is the problem with purists: endless classifications that serve no real purpose except to exclude. Classifications do this automatically -- of course -- and some are valid -- of course! -- but when it comes down to an absurd pissing contest about who can be the most pure on a particular subject, you have to ask if there isn't something wrong.

I see this in music all the time. You get "purists" who believe that it's somehow helpful to have jazz fusion and Indo-jazz fusion and Indo-jazz Bollywood fusion and Indo-jazz Bollywood fusion fuzz-pop. The same with games. Is it a first person shooter? I don't know; is it in the first person, and do you spend a lot of time shooting? The answer to this question seems pretty straight-forward.

Of course now some purist purist is going to come along and tell me why it's important that purists constantly and consciously engage in follicle division, and why there are seven kinds of purists, and this is their genus, et cetera. You know what? We're not 19th century scientists any more. Not everything needs a rigorous classification system.

I say this as a nerd, a gamer, and a slashdotter

[Scrameustache]

I'm also sitting around waiting for the new mario Galaxy game to be released.

Dude, get a life! :)

Re:The better question

[FreeKill]

I know I personally really wanted a Wii when it first came out. I attempted to find one for a few months after (3 or so) and when it was still 4-5 months later and there were still none on the shelf, I simply just lost interest. It's one thing to hold back a bit to create demand, it's entirely another to not make sales because you can't meet demand (or you don't want to meet demand to give the illusion of excessive demand). I recently checked at a local store the other day in Toronto (almost a year since it was released) and they still don't have any on the shelf. Pretty lame if you ask me, they definitely lost at least one sale there with me...

Too much dependency on the motion controls alone

[Bones3D_mac]

As an owner of a Wii myself, I've been finding it extremely difficult to tolerate playing most Wii games for more than a couple days. While motion controls may enhance gameplay in many instances, it should not be the only control scheme available. Many of us who are older or disabled are extremely sensitive to repetative movement in the arms, hands, neck and back. Unfortunately, there aren't many Wii titles that allow you to switch between button mashing and motion controls, so once you hit your limit of what you can tolerate in terms of pain, you only have the option of walking away from the game to recover. Combine this with the fact that many of us also work physically demanding jobs, and soon you have to choose between gaming or job security.

Of course, a lot of the problem, is that Nintendo has yet to provide Wii users a true, wireless controller for more traditional games aside from that crappy classic controller you have to plug into the Wii remote. Sure, there's the wavebird, but a true, Wii-native controller would be better. (Perhaps Nintendo could take a page from Sony and create a Wavebird/Wii-remote hybrid that does both traditional controls and motion controls in a single unit.)