Next Console Generation Defined By Software, Not Hardware 177
Fast Company recent spoke with Microsoft exec Shane Kim about Natal and the future of the Xbox 360. Kim said they're very interested in continuing to build out support for social networking and digital distribution, and he also made some interesting remarks about their long term plans. Quoting:
"It really has much more to do with ... the innovation and longevity that will be created when Project Natal is added to that mix and the value and the entertainment options that we continue to expand on Xbox Live. The 'next generation' will be defined by software and services, not hardware. In the past we would always get this question: 'Hey, there's a new console launch every five years and you're coming up on that time for Xbox, right?' That's the old treadmill way of thinking. Before you had things that were very obvious, from a hardware standpoint — pushing more pixels, the move from 2-D to 3-D, 3-D to HD, etc. We got a very powerful piece of hardware in Xbox 360. I am confident that we have more headroom available, in terms of developers and creators figuring out how to get more out of the system. So I worry less about new hardware having to enable us to move to a different level of graphics. It's much more about the experiences that you are going to deliver."
Re:As opposed to the current generation.. (Score:3, Interesting)
It's a nonsense comment. The software ALREADY defines the consoles. You can have the latest hardware in the world, but if you have no decent games, your system is a paper weight.
Yes, software the console with the best software library wins (e.g. PS1, PS2, and Wii). And yes, none of the those consoles had the best hardware of their generation.
However, I think you're missing the new nugget of information here. The software playing field has been stretched and MS is relying on software other than games (which are mostly cross platform now) to be their key differentiator. We've already seen some of this, but it looks like we'll be seeing a lot more.
MS has wanted to be the home entertainment hub for about a decade now (WebTV, Media Center PCs, etc.) but has failed so far. It will be interesting to see how successful MS will be at pushing the Xbox into the center of our home entertainment centers. I also wonder how much more time MS has (maybe a one more generation?) before their shareholders revolt due to the 360 hemorrhaging cash over its lifetime.
Stagnation? (Score:4, Interesting)
I've been thinking about whether AI could be a breakthrough technology that revolutionizes gaming, but after reading about game-specific AI I'm kind of shell-shocked. The kind of AI that people want for games tends to be remarkably stupid, mostly meant to dispense quests and die entertainingly. From what I understand of that impressive-looking recent demo about the AI-driven kid, 90% of that was fake, and didn't need to be real AI to impress an audience.
So, unless developers find new gameplay styles that really push the hardware, there's little point in advancing the hardware any farther. I don't much care whether my enemies splatter with true Newtonian realism when I frag them with a plasma rifle.
Re:As opposed to the current generation.. (Score:2, Interesting)
The Xbox department turned profitable in early 2008... Given that the first Xbox finished as a loss, that would mean the 360 would have to have had to recoup its losses AND the first xbox's for the department to turn profitable. The reason for the delay in turning profitable was due to the 2 billion dollar RROD investment.
I think investors are really only looking for a return on their investment for a single generation of hardware. I believe almost everyone overlooks the loss the first XBox took as the price of admission into the console market.
Also, blaming the RROD is pointless since initial execution has NEVER been MS' strong suit. MS constantly has these sorts of big issues when they ship major revisions of their product. Writing this incident off as a singular mistake ignores MS' long history of shipping initially buggy products.
On the other hand, the longer this console generations life cycle drags on, the more it plays into MS' hands. If nothing else MS is good at steadily improving their products over time (e.g. the old "don't buy MS software until SP2" rule of thumb).
Re:Stagnation? (Score:2, Interesting)
But the gaming industry seems to be hitting a technological wall, in that graphics are about as good as they need to be to look shiny and realistic.
While graphics themselves look pretty damn good these days, their animation, behavior and physics more often then not are completly abysmal. The real world isn't build out of styrofoam and card board boxes, but video game worlds seem to be, as that seems to be the best current generation physics engines are able to do. So there is still quite a lot of stuff left that we can solve by throwing more computing power at the problem.
The problem with stagnation seems to be more an issue with marketing then with hardware, most games are still clones, sequels or prequels to last years games, because those are known quantities that sell, not because you can't do anything original with all that computing power.
Re:Isn't this inevitable? (Score:4, Interesting)
And yet a well-done movie on DVD looks FAR better than a 1080p clip of gameplay on a PS3. Why? Because the modeling, animation, and physics are lagging FAR behind raw resolution.
Xbox 360 needs a hardware refresh. (Score:3, Interesting)
While technically the Xbox 360 is a great console, the big problem with this console is the hardware leaves something to be desired in terms of noise and hardware reliability.
I'm hoping that within the next two years Microsoft will do a "hardware refresh" on the Xbox 360 with a new model that uses improved chip technology to lower the running temperature (hence less need for noisy cooling fans and to improve circuit board reliability) and to possibly offer Blu-ray disc support (especially now that Blu-ray technology licensing needs only one lower cost license, not multiple licenses like in the past).
Re:It's a PC. (Score:3, Interesting)
I just bought a second hand portable that can do all that, and I bought it for 150...
Re:There is only so much you can do with software (Score:3, Interesting)
I have a backwards compatible PS3 and PS2 games on my HDTV look very good and are still very playable graphically because my PS3 can up-scale and smooth so "good enough" applies here. PS1 games even the good ones do tend to look grainy so they are not acceptable at least to me so there are now only a few PS1 games I would consider playing now so "good enough" does not apply here.
I'll give you anecdotal evidence : I have a backward compatible PS3 too, and I see very clearly the jagged lines on PS2 games. It doesn't deter anything from the enjoyment.
Like lots of people, I bought FFVII on PSN (fastest selling PSN game for PS1 BTW) which is far worse, and it still doesn't deter from my enjoyment.
So "good enough" applies perfectly well here.
I have a Gamecube and while the games are playable and acceptable on my HDTV (37", 720p) you can pick the reduced graphics quality which does detract from the overall enjoyment of the game. I suppose "good enough" could apply here but I would prefer "just acceptable". So basically if you have a HDTV it is hard to play a game that is made for an SDTV unless that game can be up-scaled and smoothed properly. Unfortunately the larger the HDTV the worse the SDTV graphics looks even when up-scaled and smoothed although "barely acceptable" still comes to mind.
BUt you're wrong anyway. It's funny how you accuse the Gamecube of being the problem, when it's actually your TV that has a problem.
On my HDTV (55" 1080p), the Gamecube games were far more beautiful on it than on my old 50" SDTV. There was just no comparison, the HDTV was better. Then again, I chose a HDTV with good electronics, that render most SDTV programs far better than SDTV (and it's calibrated too).
A HDTV should be a better piece of equipment than a SDTV, and so display SDTV better, or there's no point in buying one, especially if you expect to view SD content on it.
Kuro line of HDTV, which are references, also display SD content better than SDTV.
Also, what you're saying is strange, because the games were far better looking from the Gamecube on my HDTV, than any PS2 games upscaled by PS3, on the same HDTV, where the jaggies were very apparent despite the smoothing.
Like it or not HDTV will replace SDTV and people will want HDTV content hence the move to purchasing HDTV ready game machines such as the Xbox360 and the PS3 which together exceed the overall sales of the Wii although not by a huge amount yet.
Yet in Japan, one of the country with the highest HDTV penetration in the world, with lots of HD content already available, the Wii is trouncing both of its HD competitors.
HDTV vendors were using the Wii in events to promote their HDTV...
It's also funny that you have to put 2 competitors together to finally come to a number bigger than the Wii, and saying it's the situation "yet".
While the truth is that the XB360 was out one year earlier than its competitors, and went down from the highest 100 % market share in its generation, all the way down to below 40 %, with several price cuts already.
You put 2 competitors together, which have a high chance of having overlap, which both had price cuts, new models, and even were out before the sole SD console, which stil have had no price cut, still has only one model (until tomorrow in Japan were the black Wii will be out) available, and you manage to believe in an optimistic outcome for the HD consoles, so that it can validate your theory ?
Well, there's still hope, but I'm amazed at this level of hope.
I think you believe that people buy HDTV primarily for HD. I've always believed they bought them because they were thin.
Re:There is only so much you can do with software (Score:3, Interesting)
You say it as if limiting capabilities is a bad thing. Hopefully it will force the developers to be more creative and we'll get some decent games instead of the same repackaged shite with slightly higher framerate/pixel count/level of detail.
I'm sure that will fail hard.
Look at the Wii! That was Nintendo's message from the start, that developers would have to be more creative with the Wii, as its graphics are good enough, and developers couldn't rely on better graphics.
Look at the game's industry answer! Lots of arrogant developers (mostly western ones, but some japanese ones too) saying they don't even know how to work in a "limited" environment like the Wii, and don't even want to try.
RTRT (Score:3, Interesting)
The day I say that hardware has gone far enough is when I can't see any further improvement with my eye from increased pixel counts (my eye has a fixed resolution), framerates (my brain only runs so fast), color depth (my eye has a fixed color resolution ability of around 10m colors optimal), or realistic technology (if I can't tell it from real already, then making it twice as good from that won't be any improvement to me). I can see that day arriving in the next decade or so.
In short, once technology can create a seamless realistic experience at an affordable cost then no further improvement in that area is necessary and efforts should be directed to other areas instead.
Re:It's a PC. (Score:3, Interesting)
When you install Linux on a PS3, it doesn't remove the GameOS functionality. It's similar, but not exactly similar, to a dual-boot situation. I'm using Linux on my PS3 as I'm writing this response, but if I want to, one "ps3-boot-game-os" in the terminal and a minute later I'm back in GameOS.