Wii 2 Delay Is Hurting Nintendo 310
BanjoTed writes "Michael Pachter's ongoing spat with Nintendo regarding the Wii 2 is well documented. Pachter is sure it's coming, Nintendo says it's not. Now the analyst has gone one further by claiming that the declining sales of the Wii documented in the platform holder's recent financial statements will only get worse unless it speeds up attempts to get its successor to market. He said, 'The reason for this is clear: the software being created is just not interesting enough or compelling enough to drive Wii owners to buy more than two [games] per year, and most of those purchases are first party software. We can blame the third party publishers for making shovelware, or for misjudging the Wii market, but the simple fact is that the publishers have to develop completely separate games for the Wii because its CPU is not powerful.'"
Who is Michael Pachter? (Score:5, Insightful)
please don't call this guy an analyst (Score:5, Insightful)
FYI, Current Weekly sales of the Wii are almost equal to the combined totals of the ps3 and xbox 360 and they still make money on the hardware. While sure their sales are declining somewhat it probably has more to do with market saturation than anything else. I am sure another version is coming some day but at this point I would think the still rather good sales would be seriously undermined if they released information on a replacement version.
Re:Gee, didn't someone get lynched for saying that (Score:5, Insightful)
And yet it's the best selling console of this generation. Fancy that...
Re:Won't get Fooled Again (Score:5, Insightful)
The Wii is like that Monopoly or Life set everyone has that they pull out at family/friends get-togethers and holidays, but doesn't see much use otherwise.
Re:Gee, didn't someone get lynched for saying that (Score:2, Insightful)
You are thinking of a generation of a console as being a long-term thing. If anything the failure of sony and rise of MS in the industry has proven each generation of consoles will be judged independently of previous generations and hence nintendo is probably 100% correct in their current approach of make as much as they can for as long as they can, in a year or 2 the next generation will start and the markers will be all reset, that is the time to fix developer issues and the power of the platform, now is the time to make money.
And yet (Score:5, Insightful)
At the moment Nintendo's problem is a mere reduction in profit.
Pachter's advice is to join the ranks of the PS3/Xbox360 but the makers of those consoles have struggled to turn any profit in the relevant sections of their company.
Why isn't that guy already CEO of Nintendo? (Score:5, Insightful)
[/sarcasm]
Re:Gee, didn't someone get lynched for saying that (Score:5, Insightful)
Sells acceptably well? Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if sales of the Wii are declining because everyone has one. I know I would have bought one ages ago if I could figure out how to make it work with one of my computers.
Look - almost one in ten people in Japan own a Wii. One in thirty people in the Americas own one, and this is including South American countries that don't have nearly as much wealth as the United States. I would argue that everyone who wants a Wii has one at this point, and that's why sales are dropping off - not due to lack of interest so much as a lack of people to sell to.
Now Nintendo has basically two options; either drop the price even further, which will probably not do all that much because $200 is an entirely reasonable price point, or ramp up their cloning efforts and create more people to buy Wiis.
Has Pachter heard of a GPU? (Score:1, Insightful)
I don't think too many games are CPU-limited, even on the Wii and its relatively weak PowerPC-based CPU. I'd guess some realtime physics and AI might give it a few fits, but the GPU and the fact that it limits the Wii to non-HD resolutions would seem to the the real problem.
I think this guy doesn't undersand the Wii... (Score:5, Insightful)
but the simple fact is that the publishers have to develop completely separate games for the Wii because its CPU is not powerful.
When I think of Nintendo, I think of their tier 1 titles. That's not to say there aren't any good 3rd party titles, but Zelda, Mario, Metriod... These games are a driving force which the big-N uses to drive sales. And the strategy has worked for them for the past 25 years. Now, who is Nintendo marketing for? The answer is simple:
Everyone. Let me do a little hypothetical for you:
Think of your favorite game on an Xbox 360 or Playstation 3. Got that game in your head? Now, imagine you were playing that game at Thanksgiving time in front of your whole family, including your Grandma. 9 games out of 10, I'm thinking that at best your grandma will simply not understand, or at worst be offended.
Now do the same thing with the Wii. 9 times out of 10, it's a game you and everybody you know can at least appreciate, if not be interested in.
That, and the revolutionary easy to use controls (which are now being emulated), make the Wii a killer social platform focused on games and having fun. That's why it's been a big success.
And the idea that "The CPU is too slow" is the reason for the Wii not making yet-another-year-of-record-sales... That doesn't make sense. As we all know, Super Mario Brothers (the original one for the NES) is fun despite having ugly graphics. It's not how the game looks, it's how the game _plays_.
--Pathway
Re:Gee, didn't someone get lynched for saying that (Score:5, Insightful)
I know I would have bought one ages ago if I could figure out how to make it work with one of my computers.
Google "Wii vga adapter", there are several. You'll need to have a tv at your disposal somewhere though to be able to switch the Wii to use 480p output. As for otherwise interacting with your computers, I've had tons of fun with cwiid [abstrakraft.org], I'm sure similiar programs exist for Windows as well if you are so inclined.
Re:Gee, didn't someone get lynched for saying that (Score:5, Insightful)
I think at this point Nintendo releasing a new system would be premature. Yes they have traditionally release a new system every 5 years (nes '86, snes '91, 64 '96, GC '01, Wii '06) so if they followed that trend a new system would be out for 2011, but this system has sold better than any previous system to date. Even if sales are waning it is still selling strong compared to historical sales of game systems.
If Nintendo releases something in the next year I predict it will only be an incremental step (HD output, maybe better media support for music and videos) quite similar to DSi or DSi XL. An entirely new console is still a ways off.
Re:Gee, didn't someone get lynched for saying that (Score:2, Insightful)
Check out the top selling video games each week, for the last three years. Wii software tends to dominate. Having a slightly lower attach rate isn't as big a problem when you have twice as many consoles out there.
In other news... (Score:5, Insightful)
Seriously, why is this news? A guy is wrong, so he makes more claims, and we're supposed to pay attention to these new claims why?
Re:Won't get Fooled Again (Score:4, Insightful)
They're fun at the occasional party, but gather dust much of the time.
Funnily enough, that is exactly what the xbox360s and PS3s have been doing in the shops around here. You can see the Wii stack emptying, the other stacks don't move much. Most people I know have a Wii, only a handful have a Xbox360 and they only own it for a couple of games that weren't released on the Wii.
Disclaimer: in the previous console generation I owned all three consoles, this generation I only bought a wii as I no longer have the time or the desire to be a "hardcore gamer". That matches what happened to almost every gamer I know... they grow up, get a job, get married, buy a house and have kid(s). All of a sudden, grinding a couple hours a day on a console isn't entertaining anymore.
Re:Gee, didn't someone get lynched for saying that (Score:3, Insightful)
Having almost twice the number of consoles will do that to you. It makes statistics like these easy to skew. More games per console owner, that simply means that there are fewer consoles then games. Plus the Wii not being a loss leader means that this statistic is irrelevant. Even if the Attach rate is 40% lower, Nintendo are still shipping more games and don't have a deficit per console.
Not like game review sites can be paid off or need to pander to advertisers. [wikipedia.org] Game review sites are made by and for angry little fanboys, not the average person (first rule of journalism is...*).
Your points do not prove anything, liars figure and all of that. The Wii is still the most phenomenally successful console Nintendo have ever produced, it's almost outsold both other consoles. Wii Play, Wii Fit and Mario Kart Wii have all sold over 20 Million copies whilst the PS3 has managed 5.7 million and Xbox360 managed 8.01 Million whilst another 3 games sold over 10 million.
Really this doesn't detract from the point that the Wii sold because it was simple, easy and fun. The first two, Xbox and PS fanboys like to drag out in front of PC gamers, now with the Wii they are disadvantages but fun is the important part and why Sony and Microsoft are miles behind Nintendo.
* The old first rule, "give the reader what they want" not the new first rule, "screw the reader in every way possible for cash".
Re:Gee, didn't someone get lynched for saying that (Score:5, Insightful)
I don't know if you've thought about it (clearly you haven't) but Nintendo is screwed now. What trick will they pull out of their hat now? Sony and Microsoft have the (gimmicky, as it was in the Wii) motion control. They have the developers. They have the hardware. Where do you think that leaves Nintendo in 5 years?
But I'm sure you disagree, Nintendo has its fans apparently. I guess the only way we'll know is in 5 years time. I'll come back here to gloat when Nintendo is the Palm of 2015 looking for someone to buy them.
Every 5 or so years somebody predicts Nintendo's death in 5 or so years.
Re:Gee, didn't someone get lynched for saying that (Score:1, Insightful)
This means that the wii2 would have a lower uptake in the hardcore market because of a lack of serious games (which is what got me to turn my back on nintendo, they just dont care about gamers anymore),
My guess is that you turned your back on Nintendo and stoped watching what they are also releasing on the Wii look at "Sakura Wars: So Long, My Love", Monster Hunter Tri, Sin and Punishment 2, Muramasa: The Demon Blade and Tatsunoko VS Capcom. All recently released. None of them aimed at joe-sixpack.
I have far more problems finding good games on my X-Box 360. I plan to get Red Dead Redemption but I see no other game in the piopline thats a must buy for me.
Re:He may not be that good (Score:5, Insightful)
Even assuming he's right about the numbers - and that's a big ass-u-mtpion - his assertion that it's because new games aren't compelling is just that: an assertion.
He hasn't considered the alternative: that the Wii has so many good pick-up-and-play games with compelling gameplay that owners are actually happy re-playing what they already own, rather than feeling inadequate if they don't upgrade to MurderSportsStealthSim 14.
Since that's the entire raison d'être of the Wii, and the reason why it's destroying the 360 and PS3 in hardware sales, who am I going to believe? Nintendo from their platinum clad fortress inside a moat of liquid gold, or some pissant intertubes nobody who's been wrong about every other Goddamn thing he's ever said?
By the way, do you know what a rhetorical question is?
Re:How? (Score:5, Insightful)
MS told people to live with the RROD for months, Sony recently tried to take the "other OS" option away from 100% of users. As far as problems go, the Nintendo Wii has had the least of this generation.
If you bothered to read the bit of my post you quoted, I said the need was "minimal" which means it is uncommon, not non-existent.
Re:Gee, didn't someone get lynched for saying that (Score:4, Insightful)
Nintendo has Shigeru Miyamoto... Everything he touches is guaranteed money. I'm not a fanboy, I'm just stating the facts: The man is extremely competent and reliable at what he does. Sony and Microsoft, on the other hand, have huge losses and hardware defects - which, believe it or not, are much worse for your reputation than the lack of good graphics, as good graphics do not really make a good game, but you can't play if your GPU has melted your console - and the inability to innovate, having resorted to copying what Nintendo already had. Nintendo has the DS, a champion of sales. Nintendo DIDN'T have the third party developers to begin with (in this generation), and many of them regretted it when they saw which side the wind was blowing.
It seems to me that many who call themselves "gamers" overestimate their importance. It's people who matter, salary-earning individuals, and most people are "casual" gamers. Why should NIntendo care about you? They're making money. They're successful. They're happy. They're a business, not a charity for FPS and RPG lovers.
Re:Won't get Fooled Again (Score:3, Insightful)
You invite a couple of friends over, open up a few bottles, and if there's a dull moment, you turn on the Wii and make a fool of yourselves playing bats.
Re:Gee, didn't someone get lynched for saying that (Score:4, Insightful)
Nintendo once had Square-Enix in its pocket. The whole thing. Enix, Inc. was producing Dragon Quest for NES and SNES; Squaresoft was producing Final Fantasy and Chrono Trigger for NES and SNES. At some point, both ditched; the Playstation 2 was bought by all my friends because they wanted Final Fantasy or racing games, while the Nintendo 64 was purchased by Mortal Kombat fans.
I said back then that Nintendo needs a strong RPG market. There is an entire class of gamers that play RPGs, we like the system or the story. Final Fantasy games have amazing graphics-- and I don't mean shiny infinite polygon shit, I mean when the characters walk and talk they're ALIVE-- coupled with innovative game play in the RPG scope (ATB, CTB, junctioning, materia, artifact system, gambit system, they always do something different), rich music, and a deep and engaging storyline. The games are immersive; they tell a story, and they do so in a manner that brings you into the game rather than leading you to point out that the graphics are horrible or the sound is crappy.
And that's what Nintendo needs. It needs Namco, Square-Enix, Camelot (second party-- Golden Sun), everyone. It needs to pick up a significant portion of a single, irreplaceable class of games. To me, that class is the RPG market, because you really can't make a 120 hour movie (cue Xenosaga jokes). Fighting games, puzzle games, racing games... they're interchangeable. RPGs are not fungible, in the same way Lord Foul's Bane and Ringworld are not fungible; Tekken vs Mortal Kombat is rather like comparing Pappa John's vs Dominos, and while you might have a preference, it doesn't really matter.
Re:Won't get Fooled Again (Score:3, Insightful)
Same here. Our social circles are all parents with kids and kids are still playing the Wii. My 4yo has a Go Diego Go title that he can play, my 8yo is working on NSMBW, and I have golf, baseball, etc. games that I can play casually as a break from my more pressing responsibilities.
Re:Gee, didn't someone get lynched for saying that (Score:2, Insightful)
Yeah, because the 360 and ps3 have games with depth? Their entire catalog can be summed up basically under 3 headings. Lame FPS game that would be better if it was made for a PC, Annual Sports Game, and Newest game knocking off Devil May Cry. That's pretty much it. OH. Sorry. Also music games, but then that's really a party game that's only fun because other people are there.
Wii 2 is not a magic fix. (Score:3, Insightful)
The CPU power has less to do with the Wii's difficulties then you might think. The only affect that the machines power has is that it makes it more difficult to port Xbox or PS3 games over.
The 2 most significant factors are that the marketing position of the Wii, and the unique control system.
The controls are different enough that it makes porting a game directly across that much more difficult. And if your not going to port a game over, then you are going to have to deal with figuring out a control scheme that is suitable to the platform. This has proven to be a non trivial challenge.
The marketing position of the Wii has managed to alienate the core gamers. This is more of a problem for the 3rd party publishers. Nintendo is the only company that has come out with anything that even looks appealing to a core gamer (think Legend of Zelda, Mario Kart, Smash Brothers, and Metroid) for the platform. Those games can sell based on the strength of the brand. But for the 3rd party publishers, there is not much incentive to create something like Gears of War, Assassins Creed or Rainbow 6 Vegas for the platform when doing so will require dramatically reworking the interface for the controller (which makes it a non port of a game) and the art assets to fit that platform (those publishers depend on multi platform sales). Because no one managed this in 2006 to 2007, that customer base moved to the Xbox 360 and PS3. And now that those gamers are entrenched on that platform, none of the major publishers are going to bother trying.
The publishers that could have managed to make those games for the Wii spend the last 4 years making craptastic party games trying to emulate what Nintendo did with Wii sports. And because no one was able to do the job better than Nintendo, and because the non core market is a great deal more picky than the core gamers (only buying a few games a year), no one else made money.
A Wii 2 console will only help the situation if everyone who did buy a Wii can be convinced to buy the new system. Otherwise the Wii 2 will only have an install base that can be determined by the number of people who bought any 3 of Smash brothers Brawl, Metroid, Zelda, Mario Galaxy, and Mario Kart.
END COMMUNICATION