The Consoles Are Dying, Says Developer 309
hypnosec writes "While you might have often heard that PC gaming is dying — detractors have been claiming this for over a decade — one developer has a different take: that consoles are the ones on the way out. In a 26-minute presentation at GDC — available now as a slideshow with a voice-over — Ben Cousins, who heads mobile/tablet game maker ngmoco, uses statistics of electronic and gaming purchases, along with market shares of developers and publishers from just a few years ago, to come to some surprising conclusions. The old guard, including the three big console manufacturers — Sony, Nintendo and Microsoft — are losing out when compared with the new generation of gaming platform developers: Facebook, Apple and Google. With the new companies, the size of the audience is vastly increased because of their focus on tablets, mobile and browser-based gaming."
Entertainment Center = Fewer Games (Score:4, Interesting)
Power consumption (Score:5, Interesting)
XBox 360 and Playstation 3 use absolutely horrifying amounts of electricity compared to devices like AppleTV
XBox 360: 121 watts to watch a DVD, up to 170 watts while gaming
New PS3: 70 watts to watch a DVD, up to 80 watts while gaming
Apple TV: maximum rated 6 watts
And then throw in the added energy required by an air conditioner to remove all that heat from your house.
Granted AppleTV has less horsepower than either game system, but their power consumption is WAY out of line, given what can be done with modern hardware.
Not a direct threat to consoles (Score:4, Interesting)
This is why most of the type of games you find on the iPhone/iPad/Android devices are aimed at killing a few minutes while standing waiting for a bus not taking up hours and hours which is what most traditional gamers want/expect from their games.
My wife is a prime example of the new breed of smartphone/tablet/browser 'gamer'. I have had a PC and various gaming consoles for the last 20 years and she has never shown the slightest bit of interest in gaming as it took up too much time and had to be done at home. Now she plays games like Angry Birds on her smartphone and Facebook.
Pity so few understand statistics (Score:5, Interesting)
Can you go from 100% of the pie to 10% and STILL end up with more pie? Yes, you can! Simply increase the size of the pie. Granted, for that scenario, you need to increase the pie a lot but that is what has been happening in computer gaming.
The earliest computer games were the domain of people who had access to mainframes, this was only a small subsection of the population. Arcade games made them more available but the nature of arcade games restricted it to children. Home computers (Atari, Commodore, Sinclair) changed this again but the machines were very expensive and frankly the games just weren't that accessible. You might have fond memories of text adventures, but you are a freak.
Home arcade machines where cheaper and easier but playing pong can only attract so many people for so long. The early machines showed a promising future but the present was graphics where you needed a manual to tell you what you were looking at.
But slowly, this changed, computers became smaller and cheaper while the games got better and better. And so, more and more people buy gaming hardware and play games.
Flash games haven't replaced traditional PC games, they added to the number of people playing games on a PC. Tablets haven't taken away from other platforms, they added gamers. IF there is a slowdown in either the PC or big console market then it has far more to do with those markets on their own. Gosh, do we REALLY need another 12yr old FPS with angry rapper soundtrack?
Women gamers might not be that intrested in games so obviously aimed at 12 year olds. Are there many female gamers? Google for The Sims 3 MODS... this is females not just PLAYING a game, but MODDING it with no official support, just command line tools. FEMALES! Modding!?! But where are these females catered for on the consoles? Barbie playhouse? Where is the mature rated female game? (As in subjects that attract adult females, not 12 yr old boys, as amazing as it seems, for some weird reason most women are not terribly excited by seeing polygon boobies with full jiggle animation. Probably because the spoiled women can play with a real set whenever they want. INEQUALIY! Demand fair distrubution of boobie playtime NOW!) Anyway... I didn't believe that women really played PC games until I found myself in a lotro raid of my guild and I was the only male. And that was a 12 man... 11 woman, 1 man raid.
But you shouldn't take this the wrong way, just because a lot of women game as well, does NOT mean ALL games have to be women friendly. Different games, for different markets. It ain't so hard to understand. Just because hamburger restaurants sell a lot of hamburgers doesn't mean every single restaurant in the world has to be a hamburger joint. In fact, you might find that if you did this, the revenue for restaurants would fall. Angry birds is a top selling game but if that was the only thing on offer, the market would quickly collapse. Yet, that is exactly what has been happening in the big console market. The market is completely dominated with Call of Honor Gears Halo 56. MS knew this and desperately tried to attract japanese developers so they would at least get some JRPG action on the original xbox. It failed and the original xbox was a dismal failure in Japan. It was a far bigger success in the west... with in the segment of the population the games catered for.
I don't even think tablets will kill the Vita and DS. Those handholds are doing their own killing. Look at the line-up for the Vita? What is there? The majority of games are extremely expensive versions of games you can buy for a buck on a tablet or even try for free. Yes yes, wipeout might be some kind of classic (read milked) title but its appeal is rather limited in terms of segment of the population. It also frankly ain't suited for mobile gaming where perfect control, perfect vision, long load up times etc etc are just not on.
Neither are dark games, 99% in the sun it means you don't see shit. Where are the light deep story games that don't mind if they are
Re:Okay. (Score:5, Interesting)
Nowadays you have to upgrade a PC every 4 years or so.
Quite. I still find my Q6600 (stock clock), 4GB DDRII, and 8800GTX (before it died) ran almost any game I could think of at my monitor's native res of 1920x1200 with reasonable graphics detail. In fact, my upgrade was going to be a second 8800GTX from fleabay (I got burned by the seller; Sold me a known faulty card he claimed to have repaired, I found out afterwards. Fuck eBay for not understanding that). Ended up with a HD6950; Good card.
I wouldn't be surprised if I run this rig until the hardware dies.
Re:hardware limits (Score:4, Interesting)
Facebook games are getting better at the "game" things I guess, but their is still work to do on that. The social aspect is more than often a lure. It has worked pretty well, but it really gets old after a bit. They are good browser based games with good social aspect though, but none that have to thank fb for that.
For Google/Apple's games, they work because they open "video games" to a broader audience. but games you can pick up and put down in a minute aren't what a gamer will look for. Gamers won't disappear just because of casual game on phone. It's just not the same usage.
Wii/Xbox/PS3 have specificities, and it's up to the game designers to figure what support is suited for what kind of game. I really don't enjoy action games on a phone, the command are crappy and most of the time they hide the screen (you know, because of the tactile thing) and I sure won't buy scrabble for my Xbox. As for the networking aspect, things are going in the right direction I think.
PC has the most wide panel of possibilities from controllers to social things and Internet connection, so it gives it an edge. But my guess is no platform is going to disappear, they'll just radicalize.
Re:hardware limits (Score:4, Interesting)
I agree with most of your points, except for the presumption that you're playing a "real-life friend". Other than a dozen people, I've never met any of my Facebook friends in real life.
I think you're unusual. Most people use facebook to keep up with real life friends and family, old friends from school who now live far away, people they met on holidays or courses. People that you want to keep in touch with, sometimes daily, sometime just from time to time.
When I see my friends playing against their buddies on their XBox or PS3, they're using headphones. They're coaching each other. They're cursing each other. They're talking to each other. It's a FAR more "social" game environment than Facebook has ever been or could ever dream to be.
Casual gamers don't really want that. If they wanted a pre-longed real-time conversation with a friend they'd pick the phone up or skype or chat. Short, non-real time contacts fit the bill better for casual social gaming.
Re:hardware limits (Score:4, Interesting)
Back in my day we called this a "lan party" or did this via some other form online networking via the PC. Meh consoles, that's what I think. I don't think I've used or played on one since zelda was released and I don't miss it at all.