Can Nintendo Survive Gaming's Brave New World?

Nerval's Lobster writes "Jon Brodkin talked to indie developers (including the creator of Super Mario Bros. Crossover), former Nintendo employees, and a number of others about where exactly Nintendo went wrong over the past few years. Their conclusions? Nintendo made a number of mistakes, including a lack of an indie-developer ecosystem, a refusal to license out core properties such as Super Mario to other gaming platforms (or even iOS and Android), and platforms that don't appeal to hardcore gamers. While the developers suggest Nintendo is taking steps to broaden its horizons, such as by reaching out to smaller studios, it's questionable whether such efforts will succeed in a world where the PS4 and Xbox One are about to enter the market, and iOS and Android are swallowing up mobile gamers' time and dollars. What do you think?"

Yes, They Can

[rsmith-mac]

*Looks at Pokemon X/Y sales [polygon.com] and 3DS/2DS sales*

All signs point to yes. Dying companies don't sell 4 million games in 2 days and millions of consoles in a year.

What an odd question...

[MrChom]

...because, I mean, cash rich companies with great selling mobile devices, portfolios of valuable IP, and games that sell 4+ million copies in a few days go bust all the time... Just because the WiiU isn't the hottest selling console doesn't mean the 3ds isn't doing utterly stupendous numbers for them.

Not saying Nintendo is doing well but...

[medv4380]

The suggestion that Nintendo should release on iOS and Android would be suicide. The sales figures for the 3DS have already proven the nuts that keep saying Nintendo should release Pokemon the iPhone are insane short term thinkers. Their hand held dominance has yet to be killed. I'll believe Nintendo should start looking at selling on the iCult(Trolling Apple) when Pokemon starts selling less than 1 Million at launch. Since X/Y hit 4 Million I don't think they have to worry about that. Their console market, on the other hand, has been weak since the N64 days. The Wii's success was mostly a fluke caused by MS and Sony raising prices too much, and a couple of gimmicks that were worth some attention by some: motion controls, and wii fit.

Re:Nintendo is here to stay!

[TWiTfan]

always have and always will...

And it's that attitude at Nintendo that has been their problem for 20 years now--blindly assuming that since they were on top once that they'll always have a guaranteed place in the console world, no matter how much the competition (or world) passes them by. Many a company has followed that kind of arrogance right into bankruptcy.

Re:Yes, They Can

[Godai]

I agree. The WiiU has been a disappointment, but we're only just *now* seeing the first set of 1st party stuff show up. I rolled my eyes at "refusal to license out core properties such as Super Mario to other gaming platforms (or even iOS and Android)", since that's exactly why they'll survive just fine. Want the new Pokemon? Have to buy a Nintendo system. And they will!

And the new Mario game is set to show up soon, looks fantastic and should support online co-op finally. I haven't bought a WiiU yet, but that one might tip my hand so I can play Mario with my brother.

Re:No like until now: Sega 2.0 overlods

[pla]

Except for hardcore gamers, in my opinion there is no reason for "low-performing gaming consoles" when in 2-3 years a mid-priced smartphone with HDMI + bluetooth running Android will reach similar results.

You could have said the exact same thing about the PC vs consoles for the past 30 years, and yet, consoles keep on kicking.

The PC didn't kill consoles for the same reason that smartphones won't - People don't want to screw around with variable configurations and unknown levels of performance and controller compatibility. They want a known-working machine such that they can buy a game, put it in, turn it on, and have it work exactly the same way as it did last time, as it does for everyone else, as the manufacturer intended it to work.

Ironically, I see modern consoles as their own biggest enemy in that regard - Forced upgrades that break older features, forced online play even for simple single-player games, DRM that (especially for new releases) fails to authenticate the player as often as it works, for-pay premium content in games you've already bought... The console companies have done their damnedest to shift the experience as far as possible away from their one and only edge over general purpose devices: "it just works". Until... It doesn't.

Re:Nintendo is here to stay!

[neonKow]

On the other hand, it's also premature to declare a company dead when their console one generation back was a huge success, and their handhelds are still extremely popular. On top of that, it's easier than ever to not be "locked in" to a policy of not supporting indie developers with everything being on the cloud now.

Will *Nintendo* survive? Sure.

[DdJ]

Will Nintendo survive?

Sure. Remember that they were founded in 1889. They had a business before video games, and if necessary, they'll have a business after video games.

I think that's where some of their behavior actually comes from. There's a certain level of autonomy that I don't think they're willing to give up, even if that means their video game business tanks.

Nintendo

[Anonymous Coward]

Nintendo made a number of mistakes, including a lack of an indie-developer ecosystem,

True. Nintendo hardware is very nice. An indie-developer program would attract talent and open the door to great games and a profitable future. They just need to find the right branding, probably something like a "Mario Labs" where the gamers also play the role of 'investors', deciding if projects deserve a grant or deserve to get canned.

a refusal to license out core properties such as Super Mario to other gaming platforms (or even iOS and Android), and platforms that don't appeal to hardcore gamers.

False. Core properties (Super Mario, Zelda, et al) are what make a Nintendo console what it is. If you want to play Super Mario, you know what console you need to have in order to play it -- A Nintendo. As soon as Mario makes an appearance on iOS or Android, that's the end of what makes Nintendo special. In essence, they'd become another SEGA; a popular system when I was a teenager, but now just a hit or miss game studio. That's not the road Nintendo wants to go down.

While the developers suggest Nintendo is taking steps to broaden its horizons, such as by reaching out to smaller studios, it's questionable whether such efforts will succeed in a world where the PS4 and Xbox One are about to enter the market, and iOS and Android are swallowing up mobile gamers' time and dollars.

Nintendo knows what the other companies don't:
- $250 entry point
- Make very reliable hardware, but do NOT make it a loss leader [wikipedia.org]
- Curate available titles very carefully to ensure maximum revenue

The gamers looking for the high-end PS4 and Xbox One experience aren't Nintendo's core customers.
The games playing casual games on iOS and Android aren't Nintendo's core customers either.
Nintendo should not be the dog who lost his bone to a reflection.
They know their customer base and they serve them well, which is why they keep making a profit.

Nintendo's Biggest Weakness - ONLINE

[Alzheimers]

Nintendo's biggest weakness is clearly their complete distain and disregard for supporting online play. From tedious friend codes, to a lack of headset/mic support, to their stubborn insistence in "going their own way" with an online marketplace, their online/connectivity factor is woefully neglected and abused.

How can Nintendo make a billion dollars tomorrow? A Pokemon MMO.

How can Nintendo sell a million Wii U consoles? Give Smash Brothers, Mario Cart, Mario Party, and Starfox the same kind of online matchmaking that you would find in CoD or MoH from any LAST GENERATION console.

Will they? Who knows. But the market for a console that doesn't extend past the living room is drying up, and while there will always be a dedicated band of single player or local multiplayer based fans eager for whatever remake from ten years ago Nintendo wants to produce, the rest of the market has expanded their horizon beyond the four walls of their living room, and demands their console do the same.

Re: Nintendo is here to stay!

[Cowclops]

The Wii only achieved an odd form of success though. While lots of people bought it and Nintendo profited on the sales of the consoles, nowadays they're just sitting on people's shelves unused. Even with that kind of market saturation is it successful if the average Wii owner has, what, less than 5 games? Less than 2? I don't know the answer but if something is purchased but then rarely used it's only a partial success. They have to sell games too.