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+ - Obama Win 97.7% Probable : Nate Silver's Numbers

Submitted by Anonymous Coward
An anonymous reader writes "The state-by-state election outcome probabilities today on Nate Silver's 538 imply a 97.7% probability for Obama to win 270 or more electoral college votes this coming Tuesday. What I wonder is why Nate publishes the inconsistent and low result of just 85.1%. Is it because readers pay more attention the closer the race, or is it just a plain old, long running, mistake? The fact that his "Electoral Vote Distribution" doesn't integrate to 100% makes me suspect the latter."
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Obama Win 97.7% Probable : Nate Silver's Numbers

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Is it possible that software is not like anything else, that it is meant to be discarded: that the whole point is to always see it as a soap bubble?

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