PlayStation 3 to Sell For $399, Going Underground 491
Merrill Lynch Japan has conducted research that indicates that the PlayStation 3 will retail for $399. According to Gamespot's coverage of the paper, the unit will cost $494 to manufacture. Sony will thus be taking an almost $1 Billion loss in the first year of the PS3's lifespan. From the article: "It is normal for game companies to take a loss on hardware whenever a new console launches, since they typically focus on acquiring market share rather than generating a profit during the first year. During the second year and afterward, they can recover the losses with the savings that come from mass production and with licensing fees from publishers." Meanwhile, Press the Buttons is reporting on a Pro-G article in which SCEE Chief David Reeves states that "I feel proud that E3 went well from the presentations that they did...I feel very happy about that, but I told the troops: OK now we go underground. The PS3 goes underground until it comes out next year."
No surprise here (Score:5, Interesting)
Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that video games only take a nickle/disc to make, there are so many games out there that fail, even to the point of being fully developed but never shipped, that these companies need to balance the costs.
Re:No surprise here (Score:2, Interesting)
Re:No surprise here (Score:2)
Re:No surprise here (Score:2)
Re:No surprise here (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:No surprise here (Score:3, Informative)
im hoping that its all along the lines of their new going underground ideology. not talking it up; and just springing it on us. xbox live is nice, but it could stand to be better. alot better! and i hope
Re:No surprise here (Score:2, Interesting)
Re:No surprise here (Score:2)
The literal manufacturing cost of a game has very little to do with the final price of a title. Using your $.10 a disc model (which isn't that far off actually) it doesn't take into account the content of the disc. When you're spending $10 million to produce a game, you've got to recover your investment somehow. Outside of the royal
Re:No surprise here (Score:3, Informative)
(from the linked page)
and:
Re:No surprise here (Score:3, Insightful)
Really, I understand that the music and gaming parts of Sony are different divisions. But, to think that the Music division of Sony uses smoke and mirrors in their accounting, but the console
Re:No surprise here (Score:3, Informative)
I wouldn't look at Acts of Gord for 'truth'. Not only does he mention a blurb in a stock report that he didn't even quote, but he draws an extreme conclusion from it.
Here are the two basic problems I have with his claim:
1.) It's a quarterly stock report. Those are MEANT to sound compelling. Since we don't even have the exact quote from the report, we have no way of knowing what type of math Sony was using to impress their stockholders. Also, it's a quarterly report.
Re:No surprise here (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:No surprise here (Score:5, Insightful)
I agree that the XBox2 and PS3 will need 1080i, and everyone in the following generation will.
Re:No surprise here (Score:2)
Re:No surprise here (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:No surprise here (Score:4, Interesting)
I'm not that excited about HDTV. I tend not to watch TV live - if a show's good I catch it on a rented DVD without adverts - and I watch DVDs on a projector. The quality is not perfect, but I have to look closely to see pixelation, and so it falls into the category of `good enough'.
Re:No surprise here (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:No surprise here (Score:5, Informative)
Really, I think IGN whining for HDTV is a product of Matt and the other cube.ign.com guys being sick and tired of not being able to compare dick sizes with the xbox and ps2 staff.
Nintendo never was about the hardware; and the fact that PS2 fucking blows chunks from a technological standpoint vs the Xbox and the GC provides a good example of how much of a red herring HDTV is.
Games, market perception, and release timing
Re:No surprise here (Score:3, Interesting)
I assumed that the GC would be the worst of the three. Much of that assumption came from aesthetics and design. The GC looks and feels like a toy that should be tucked into a child's cubbyhole. Playing games on it proved me wrong as both the graphics and gameplay exceeded my expectations and the capabilities of the much better looking and market
Re:No surprise here (Score:4, Interesting)
Why? Nothing even close to a majority of US homes have televisons capable of displaying high-def content yet - A quick Google search shows figures for HDTV penetration around 4-9%, for example. By the time HDTV support is a majority, it'll be time for the next generation of consoles anyway.
People have been predicting Nintendo's doom for years now, but they're still around and actually quite profitable. I seriously doubt lack of HDTV support is going to be the issue that changes that trend.
Re:No surprise here (Score:4, Interesting)
If DTV were that important, the GCN, with its support for progressive scan, would be seriously trouncing the PS2. The only progressive support you see on the PS2 is on DVD playback, and that's only on the newer units. And yet the market seems content in paying (more money!) for the inferior 480i.
It's a revolution. It's supposed to reach to the common man. The common man doesn't have the latest and greatest in their a/v setup, so there's no reason for the Revolution to cater to the elite(ist). If anything, the people who insist on HDTV and such are the people who Nintendo are actually trying to distance themselves from in an effort to reach a broader audience, the very people some of us feel are causing the games industry to stagnate the way it is.
Only the bourgeois elite care about real-time rendered forearm hair and the picture resolution to see it, and the hidebound electronics industry aristocracy are doing nothing for the gaming proletariat by offering it. The masses need better games! It is time for the people to rise up and demand a gaming industry again, television and set-top box manufacturers be damned!
Video games got started not in living rooms with big-screen TVs, stereo systems, comfortable sofas and easy access to the kitchen, but in cold, unfinished basements with hand-me-down televisions that required "warming up," maybe a boom-box to route sound out of for stereo, and no furniture save for a washer and dryer. If the Revolution is to have any shot at reinventing gaming, it will have to be able to return to gaming's roots to start. There is no HDTV down there.
(On a slightly more serious note, what the heck is HDTV supposed to do for gaming?)
Re:No surprise here (Score:5, Interesting)
Inflation (Score:2, Insightful)
Selling games for $60 is not a new thing in Japan.
Japanese gamers tend to have more disposable income.
The Nintendo 64 proved that $60 is too much money for an American consumer to spend on one game.
There will also have been 10 years of wage inflation between the PS1/N64 generation and the PS3/Revo generation.
Re:No surprise here (Score:3, Informative)
Oddly enough, the single most expensive game I ever bought cost me $72 (after 6% sales tax); it was on the SNES, not the N64, so at one point, consumers were willing to spend $60+ on a new game. I think it was the disparity between the manufacturing costs (and, thus purchase cost) of SNES/N64 media vs. PlayStation media that drove the prices down here (i.e., You want me to spend how much more for the same gam
PS3 for $399 (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:PS3 for $399 (Score:5, Interesting)
It helps to subsidize electronics for the masses without a convoluted gov't based needs program.
Re:PS3 for $399 (Score:5, Interesting)
Let's pretend we have a game console, and it's planned competitive lifetime is 4 years. It introduces at $400, and a year later it's available for $300. But really, $400 for a 4 year lifetime means you're "writing down" $100/year. In that case, the early-adopter and the wait-for-the-price-to-drop users have gotten equal value out of the consoles. In fact, the early-adopter may have gotten better value, because his first game is being written down over 4 years instead of 3, so it costs less per year.
I know it's overly simplified, but there is one point that lasts... The early adopter does fork out the big bux, but he also gets that early usage out of the console, and perhaps more usage than the price waiter. The latter argument has holes too, in that the early adopter probably adopts the next generation early as well, so both get about the same amount of usage. Still, you buy it to use it, and if you buy early, you get to use early. The idea model, from a cost basis, would be to be an early adopter for every other generation, either skipping the in-between generations or getting them really cheap on eBay.
But if you're strictly on a cost basis, skip the game consoles entirely, and take up real-world activities that also improve your fitness.
Re:PS3 for $399 (Score:5, Insightful)
The only positive the early adopter gains is the bragging rights of playing it while it's new and exciting.
The negatives include higher cost, a possible lack of titles, possible hardware/software failure, and competition in finding the new console. If any of those other negatives co-exist with the higher cost, he may in fact be getting LESS value over those 4 years than someone who buys it a year later, even if they pay the same amount per year.
For example, if you pay $100/yr, but there are only 20 titles out that first year of which you like 1 or 2, are you really getting the same $100 worth of use out of it?
Re:PS3 for $399 (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:PS3 for $399 (Score:3, Insightful)
If someone doesn't care about getting the new stuff when it's new, then to them, there is no life of the console.
Does the fun factor of a game change because it's purchased and played a year after the game came out?
You are forgetting that game prices also drop. And hell if I can get an Xbox for $99 and 20 games for $10 each, that's $300 I just spent and I have 20 games to play and have fun with.
If I purchased the Xbox when it first came out at $300 and each game when they first came out at $50 a game
Ouch! (Score:5, Interesting)
More R&D Coming (Score:3, Informative)
Re:Ouch! (Score:2)
Re:Ouch! (Score:2)
Sony will not lose $494 on every PS3 sold forever. Eventually the prices for the parts that go into the PS3 will go downand before the end of PS3 production they will be able to make a profit.
Re:Ouch! (Score:2)
Re:Ouch! (Score:2)
Will It Make A Difference? (Score:4, Interesting)
Quick question re: the PSP (Score:2)
But yeah (re: hardward discounts), when you have your name on every game, those props comes with a couple bucks, so they do make the initial loss in volume.
Re:Quick question re: the PSP (Score:2)
The $494 quoted in the article is the (informed guess at) PS3's manufacturing cost, not the PSP's, which is what the grandparent poster wanted.
Meh.. (Score:2, Interesting)
I'd love to see what would happen if all 3 companies had 33% market share.. Besides the obvious multi-platform title increase, specific and exclusive games could really swing the buying public.
Re:Meh.. (Score:2)
Re:Meh.. (Score:2, Informative)
How is this not considered "Dumping" (Score:3, Interesting)
How come this is ok?
Is it because this is a direct consumer product?
Re:How is this not considered "Dumping" (Score:2)
Though yeah, it is anti-competitive as it bars newcomers to the field since they can't afford the cut.
But alas... whatever, we're all gonna work for Taco bell anyways
Tom
Re:How is this not considered "Dumping" (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:How is this not considered "Dumping" (Score:5, Informative)
Distinction: Government Subsidies (Score:4, Insightful)
The other situation that is prohibited is for a monopoly to sell a product at a price below cost in order to destroy the competition. In such situations, the monopoly aims to destroy the competition so that the monopoly can, at a later point in time, dramatically raise the price of the product to reap monopoly profits. Such actions also hurt the American economy.
Except for these two problems, there is no issue with companies using selling-at-a-loss to gain market share. IBM sells its server hardware at zero profit or at a small loss in order to reap the profits from a service contract. Sony sells its Playstation at a loss in order to reap the profits from software sales. Neither IBM nor Sony is a monopoly. Further, neither IBM nor Sony (unlike Korean companies) are being subsidized by either the American or Japanese governments.
Re:Distinction: Government Subsidies (Score:2)
What absolute rubbish. Your disregard for the facts is astonishing, and you've never taken Economics 101. Which fallacy would you like me correct first?
Lets start with Hynix recieves financial support from the Korean government. W
Weird.. (Score:4, Insightful)
i.e. if the development costs were a theoretical $1000 and each unit has a cost of $1, making 1000 units will be $2 each, whereas making 2000 will cost $1.50?
Re:Weird.. (Score:2)
Moreover (Score:4, Insightful)
Example: They're assuming $100 the Bluray Disc player. A DVD player would be... what, I dunno, definitely less? Let's make up a random number and guess that they're spending $80 more per unit because they went with Bluray instead of DVD. Except wait a minute. Does it really make sense to lump this in $80 or whatever in with the per unit cost of the PS3? For one thing, this money is subsidizing the portion of Sony's business that's interested in selling Bluray drives and discs, and that's something Sony has a lot of money riding on. For another thing, I'd assume one of the main reasons the BD drives are so expensive is that they are new and unproven technology. But the PS3 manufacturing itself will help to break the technology in. To some extent by spending this money on the BD drives for the PS3 to break in the production lines and all, Sony probably is relieving money that it will have to spend later on manufacturing BD drives for other consumer products. To some extent that $80 per bluray represents a sunk cost that Sony would have had to have paid anyway for other purposes.
So I question how important these numbers are. If you look at previous Sony Playstations, Sony's been pretty good at the whole thing of bringing down production costs relatively quickly. If they can keep this up they can probably afford to just eat a high production cost since they know their costs are eventually going to come down.
Starving Geeks (Score:4, Funny)
Going underground a mistake (Score:3, Interesting)
WTF?! (Score:4, Funny)
I feel bad for the poor bastard who has to dig the hole to bury all of those units...
Re:WTF?! (Score:2)
Re:WTF?! (Score:2)
Pricing (Score:3, Interesting)
Also, anyone else think that Nintendo may be a bit more successful at undercutting MS and Sony with MS and Sony both ramping up prices? I would assume that Nintendo will make the Revolution's price point a large issue.
From TFA: (Score:5, Funny)
I can only imagine how well GTA: San Andreas is doing over there...
Re:From TFA: (Score:3, Funny)
Re:From TFA: (Score:3, Funny)
Re:From TFA: (Score:5, Funny)
Dumping (Score:2, Interesting)
"Dumping [answers.com]: selling goods at less than the normal price, usually as exports in international trade. It may be done by a producer, a group of producers, or a nation. Dumping is usually done to drive competitors off the market and secure a monopoly, or to hinder foreign competition."
Drive off competitors? Secure a monopoly? Sony? Never!
Re:Dumping (Score:2)
This is not uncommon, nor illegal (IANAL). It is used for mobile phone services and digital cable boxes (giving away the hardware and earning money on the subscription), or razors (think Gillette).
It is also extensively used by others in the Game console industry. F
Re:Dumping (Score:2)
If the normal price is $399, and the price they're selling at in the USA, Europe, Japan, etc. is all approx. $399, then what makes you think it's dumping?
More from the Corporation of Arrogance: (Score:2, Interesting)
The press was saying that it was expensive, but it was a huge hit. It's the same thing with the PlayStation Portable from last year. The Game Boy Advance is a same handheld gaming machine, and it costs less than 10 thousand yen ($91). On the other hand, our PSP had cost 25,000 yen ($229). But people lined up overnight to buy it, and it sold out on the day of its launch. It all depends on whether people want it. Of course, I'm confident that the PS3 is a product that people will definitely want.
Re:More from the Corporation of Arrogance: (Score:2)
/Mikael
Has History tought them NOTHING? (Score:3, Insightful)
Oh wait, it's not just a game console "this time"?
It's an entire entertainment center? A supercomputer too? Gee, in THAT case....
Have to hand it to Sony. (Score:5, Interesting)
They really know how to do this "business" thing.
Microsoft comes to E3 with a console that is looking amazingly polished, down to the extensive new XBox Live features, and with tons and tons of in-engine first looks.
Sony comes to E3 with a gigantic press event held at their cinema, with 2 simple real-time tech demos, prerendered (although using PS3 hardware) gameplay footage that blows away any other *footage* to date, and a bunch of video clips featuring their spider-man franchise.
There is no doubt about it -- MS is shipping earlier, MS has a better online infrastructure, and many of MS' games are already playable
But Sony won E3. All anyone wanted to talk about was the KillZone trailer.
Now, to keep anyone from pointing out that the Emperor has no clothes, they're disappearing. So all anyone will talk about, until they're ready, will be
It's absolutely a great idea. For the record, I have nothing against MS, but I'm WARY of them. Anything, even something unfair, that keeps them on their toes is probably a good thing for the rest of the world.
I won't buy either until they're both out next summer, though, so it's sort of moot.
Re:Have to hand it to Sony. (Score:2)
Re:Say WHAAAT ? (Score:3, Informative)
Judging by Sony's record (Score:2, Informative)
I have a strange feeling that two giants may fall hard from a war this huge.
To bad that SEGA isn't around there (Score:2)
With more constructor on the market : more concurence and thus even better prices and more efforts to put out something inventive.
Too bad they never learned to do good marketing to better sell their products. They did have some quite descent consoles in the past (IMHO: Genesis/MegaDrive and DreamCast were good, not to mention the fantastic hack-ability of the latter. Saturn would have been ok too, if only more titles have been tr
Um? (Score:5, Insightful)
People seem to be taking this for gospel, when both numbers are analyst estimates.
Of course, retailing for $399 on lauch is probable: in Japan, the PS2 retailed for about this. When it came here, it went for... $299. The PS1 retailed for $599. When it came here, it went for... $299.
So let's wait for a real number from someone with a clue, as opposed to an analyst.
Re:Um? (Score:3)
Most analysts thought there was no way the the PSP would be less than $350-500 when it came out. Analysts are the people who were saying "Apple should become a software company" in 1996. Anaylists are the people who saw "significant upside" in Pets.com and Webvan. More recently, Merrill Lynch [who issued this report] paid $35 million in penalties for their involvement in the Enron scandal.
Also, the "go underground" thing was in reference
Ahem!!! (Score:5, Interesting)
It is normal for game companies to take a loss on hardware whenever a new console launches, since they typically focus on acquiring market share rather than generating a profit during the first year. During the second year and afterward, they can recover the losses with the savings that come from mass production and with licensing fees from publishers.
Nintendo will probably launch the Revolution somewhere between $200 and $300 and still manage to make a profit on every console they sell. A while back there was an excellent article on /. that explained how Nintendo's business model was different from Sony and Microsft, and that even though they came in third place against the Xbox and PS3, they were still the most profitable.
For Sony to release a console after Microsoft and for a higher price could cause problems for them like the article stated. Microsoft has deep enough pockets to launch the console at around $350 when it comes out and cut it down to $300 when the PS3 launches. They'd be taking some huge hits in the pocketbook, but it would probably get more people to buy Xbox 360's.
However, as illustrated with the PSP, some people will buy something no matter how much it costs just because they want it. Sony is really going to need to count on its fan base to help out a lot.
Re:Ahem!!! (Score:2)
I think the major reason for Nintendo needing to have an entirely different business model than Sony and MS, comes from the fact that Sony and MS create, research, develop, etc... a lot more consumer electronics, software, and participate in so many different markets m
Nintendo focused on limited monopolies (Score:5, Interesting)
Nintendo took their limited Monopolies (Mario, Metroid, Zelda, Pokemon, etc.) and pushed them into that market. They made money along the way, kept their costs down, and sold most of their own titles. Sony/MS make something like $8/game on third-party games. Nintendo makes considerably more per game.
Even if customers bought fewer games/console, Nintendo probably made more per customer, and wasn't trying to recover a $100/customer acquisition cost.
Sony ONLY makes money on its fan base. A recreational player that buys a few sports games each year will never pay Sony enough in its fees to cover the $100 Sony spent subsidizing their hardware.
HOWEVER, in this case, Sony has another advantage. Getting the PS3 out means getting Blu-Ray DVD players into millions of homes. When the HD-DVD crew comes out with their $1000 HD-DVD players, and Apple and Sony have moved their Blu-Ray DVD machines (including Apple machines that will no doubt let you burn HD Blu-Ray DVDs of your kid's little league game), this might be the first time that the superior technology wins DESPITE being backed by BOTH Apple and Sony...
Alex
Cuz, you know (Score:2)
Right?
They want YOU to get addicted (Score:4, Interesting)
The printer corps do it with printers.
1. Sell some product which addicts you to something cheap.
2. People must buy more of your razor-blades, printer-ink, games/controllers,
3. ???
4. Piles of profit.
Anyone know a Playstation owner will spend at least ten times what the console cost on other things.
Re:They want YOU to get addicted (Score:3, Insightful)
Maybe some playstation owners do. I doubt I've spent even the cost of the console since I bought it. I paid for one extra controller and a memory card, and I have about a half dozen games, only one of which cost me more than $20. I know quite a few other playstation owners who are the same way. One of my best friends has a PS2 that only gets used for the three Grand Theft Auto games. Everything else he
$100 more than the Xbox 360? Ouch. (Score:5, Insightful)
Not only is that $100 less, but by the time the PS3 launches, the Xbox 360 will be out long enough to cut its price. It could conceivably go down to $250-275.
For the casual gamer that isn't necessarily married to the Sony brand label, the 360 price point will certainly look much more attractive. To the slightly more technical buyer, one would note that the PS3 price doesn't even include the damn hard drive (sold separately!), while the 360 does.
I don't see a really good "win" scenario for Sony here. If they do price competitively with the Xbox 360, then they'll be taking losses per unit that blow away the losses MS was taking with the original Xbox (and those were crazy enough that MS built their new console with keeping losses in control - and apparently have succeeded).
There's still plenty of Sony faithful that want their Final Fantasys and Metal Gears, but Sony could stand to lose a huge share of the massive casual fan base that made them the #1 console seller this past gen.
(This post was written by a decidedly non MS cheerleader - he likes Ubuntu, Gentoo, and Apple)
Re:$100 more than the Xbox 360? Ouch. (Score:2)
This kind of analysis is important because it cuts through the bullshit and we hear actual opinions from the actual people who are in the market for these products.
Re:Microsoft seeks to ensure Sony win (Score:3, Interesting)
Remember when they were talking about selling 3 different versions of the Xbox 360 at launch? They backed away from that fracturing of the market too.
Also, if they DID sell an HD-DVD version down the line, it wouldn't mean that games would make use of it. Game developers are not so quick to turn their back on millions of installed base users. Notice how nobody made use of the PS2 hard drive peripheral? Game developers are not so stupid about their bottom
Eating their own words? (Score:3, Insightful)
Seems even though Sony claims Xbox has not hurt their sales and is not a threat, taking up this give away the razors and make money on the blades approach says otherwise.
Worth It For HD (Score:4, Interesting)
My first DVD player was $300, I can only imagine what the first HD-DVD players will cost.
Maybe they will even bundle a 1080p version of Spider-Man 2 to with it.
Press The Buttons (Score:2)
corrected:
Pro-G is reporting SCEE Chief David Reeves states that...
Anyone else getting deja vu? (Score:5, Interesting)
This time round, looks like it's Sony coming out second with the advanced yet fridge-sized beast & freakshow controllers, and it's going to really cost them a bundle, while the Xbox 360 seems to taking it more carefully...
I'm guessing that Nintendo will stay right where they were before though.
Offer the Sony credit card. (Score:2)
Yes, that's partially sarcasm, but don't underestimate those who want it now and are willing to pay more over time with a manageable monthly payment. After all, look at how many people have store cards at 24% interest inste
hmm taking a loss eh (Score:3, Funny)
And the myth continues (Score:3, Informative)
The Sega Saturn was sold at a loss and failed. The Xbox was sold at a loss but M$ could afford it. We'll see if the PS3 actually gets sold at a loss or not.
Don't believe me? The numbers and such are available if you search, or just read the Gord's little article
I bought a PS1 and a Saturn... (Score:3, Informative)
I took both apart. Although the Saturn did look more expensive (mostly unnecessarily, due to how it was put together with several boards instead of the PS1's one), I'd be shocked if it couldn't be built and shipped to the US for $399.
I took apart my first gen US PS2 ($299?), and I have to say that was probably on the fence. There was a huge cooling solution and a couple sandwiched boards in there, and DVD drives
If that is the case... (Score:5, Funny)
March 2006 in Japan with 100,000 units. ("We launched on time!")
November 2006 in the US with a million units ("We are focusing on the PSP")
And Summer 2009 in Europe, proscuting anyone who tries to import one.
Re:A billion dollars???? (Score:3, Informative)
During its first year of release, Sony Computer Entertainment suffered a loss of 51.1 billion yen ($458 million), but it recovered the next year with a profit of 82.9 billion yen ($759 million), followed by 112.6 billion yen ($1.03 billion) the year after.
Re:A billion dollars???? (Score:2)
What's the licensing fee for a copy of a PlayStation game? If it's $25 / disc, the average PS3 owner will need to buy 4 games over the life of the platform for Sony to make its money back. $25 / disc sounds REALLY high, though.
Re:A billion dollars???? (Score:2)
Buying only 4 games in the life of a platform sounds REALLY low.
Re:A billion dollars???? (Score:2)
Re:Predatory Pricing ... not quite. (Score:2)
Actually, I don't think it's predatory as long as it's still competitive. If a price is dropped so low that competitors simply can't compete with the price at all, that is almost certainly in violation of anti-trust acts. As long as there are viable alternatives that are still in the same price range, I don't believe that such actions are ille
Re:Geeze (Score:5, Insightful)
How about a single unit that provides you with a DVD player, CD player, and Blu-ray disc player, in addition to being a game center?
When the PS2 came out, a lot of people justified the expense by saying "well, it's also a DVD player - that's like $150 right there" (which is what DVD players cost at the time... I know they're cheaper now). No one currently makes a Blu-Ray disc player, but the recorders are around $1500 each. At a tenth the cost for a player (not unreasonable), it makes the PS3 look more attractive.
Re:Geeze (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:Geeze (Score:4, Interesting)
As long as blue-ray discs start being released at about the same time as the PS3, people will justify part of the purchase price as going to their "free" blue-ray player. Sony will not only make money off PS3 games, but also off of an extensive library of hit movies that they'll be able to sell to PS3 owners.
If you want to see the model, it'll play out exactly like the PSP and UMDs. PSP early adopters justified a portion of their purchase price as going to the movie playing capabilities of the PSP. UMDs, despite high prices, have been selling well and making money for Sony. More UMD movies are on their way every week.
When I bought my first CD player I had a couple of friends that commented, "but you don't have any CDs." Eveyone starts out this way with a new format and they don't let it stop them from making that purchase. The only thing that will stop people from factoring the value of blue-ray into their PS3 buying decision is if they think HD-DVD will win. Otherwise they'll be delighted at the possibility of getting a BR disc player so cheap.
TW