360 Shortage Rumours Marketing Ploy? 28
Joystiq wonders out loud if the shortage rumours going around about the Xbox 360 may not just be a marketing ploy on Microsoft's part. From the article: "The bottom line: in all likelihood, you'll be able to walk into just about any store on November 22nd and obtain an Xbox 360. But all it takes is a little, good, old-fashioned FUD (Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt) to drive sales through the roof and make this rumor a self-fulfilling prophecy." If this is in fact a ploy, it may be backfiring on them. Gamasutra is reporting that an analyst is downgrading his opinion of how the launch will go based on these hardware shortage rumours.
Ha.y (Score:2)
This is like MS having elevnty million consecutive quarters beating earnings expectations because they had them lowerered just to beat them every time.
Bullshit.
Re:Ha.y (Score:5, Informative)
Not sure you really understand how this works. MS can say whatever they want; they can say they expect to sell one single unit and then afterwards claim they beat expectations by 1.5 million percent. But analysts don't base their expectations on what manufacturers say. They never have and they never will.
Analysts do their own research. They literally will do things like call up the factories involved in producing the various parts required and asking them how many units they can produce in a month. If necessary, they'll visit said factories to look at the assembly lines themselves. Sub-contractors are usually public corporations themselves so they have to publish stuff like manufacturing capacities, and it's not hard for an analyst to independently verify these numbers. (And they do require verification; the fact that a factory turned out 15 million doorstops last year does not mean it will also be able to turn out 1.5 million Xbox 360 outer casings by the end of November.)
They'll do this for everything; packaging, materials, assembly infrastructure, delivery logistics.
That's on the supply side.
To determine demand, they'll also survey stores to get a sense of the number of preorders in various regions, and with a large enough sample size they can extrapolate that nationally. They'll do their own cold-calling too, random phone or other surveys of end-users, and/or more targeted focus groups and surveys geared just to people of a certain age or who identify themselves as gamers.
There are also laws that govern how these analysts can function; they can be accused of orchestrating or participating in pump and dump schemes just like the companies themselves.
The point being, if an analyst downgrades something like this, it's because he/they knows something we don't and that maybe even MS doesn't want us to know. It's not something that can be orchestrated by MS. In this case, there are probably a few weak links in the supply chain - it doesn't sound like it's the demand that's being downgraded, just the supply. And he even says it's probably not going to affect MS at all in the long run.
I'm not convinced that you won't be able to walk into a store and buy an Xbox 360 at or soon after launch, though, but day one and immediately afterwards, you will probably have to hunt. They're not going to have 3 million systems out there if analysts believe they'll only have half that.
Re:Ha.y (Score:2)
My Crow Soft.
Simple fact is that anyone else who would/could benefit from this news:
1) Is either Microsoft, Sony or Nintendo. In either case, the responsible party has a vested interested in turning out biased news.
2) Is a small-time 'stakeholder' and would not get a big enough r
Re:Ha.y (Score:2)
In this case, the analysis is probably really good news for investors in the companies supplying the parts for the 360, since it indicates that at least some of them are working to capacity, and it's still pretty good news for MSFT (though the part about them
You can't trust analyists. (Score:1)
You've obviously never worked as an analyist or for a large bank. What you've described is what an analyist _should_ do. Analyists work for banks. A given bank is often long on some set of stocks (abc) and short on others. Bank analyists often provide 'analysis' that lines attempts to move the market in such a way to help thier banks long positions go up and thier short positions go down and find numbers to support thier analysis. How many times have you sean an analyist
Re:You can't trust analyists. (Score:2)
What's next? (Score:4, Funny)
More on the effects of the rumours... (Score:3, Interesting)
No shit.... (Score:1)
This drives up demand and makes the fanboy froth over.
I once found a stash of Nintendo64 systems in Wyoming of all places when there was a "shortage" nationwide. I promtly bought all I could afford (three) and resold them on ebay for record profits. The same thing will happen with this one, too.
Re:No shit.... (Score:1)
Define "record profits."
Dur (Score:4, Interesting)
Delay it for a month and fix your launch planning issues, an eleven-month lead can still be spun by marketing.
No, that's the plan! (Score:5, Interesting)
The real marketing question is how many units to ship to make sure there are just enough so that almost everyone gets one.
Re:No, that's the plan! (Score:1)
I suspect around 5 or 6 units would be pretty close.
Analyst (Score:2)
Re:Analyst (Score:2)
So, no, schooling won't help. I, for one, think that socialization is the best answer.
But then again, wtf do I, for one, know?
Dilbert said it best. (Score:3, Insightful)
Remember the Xbox? (Score:5, Interesting)
Now, PS2 on the other hand... Those were hard to find. The worst bit was when I got a PS2, I couldn't find any Sony memory cards anywhere.
Just one thing... (Score:2)
Re:Just one thing... (Score:1)
Re: (Score:2)
I'm doubting how well the launch will go too... (Score:2)
Will it sell well? No doubt. Will it sell astronomically well? Not bloody likely.