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PlayStation (Games)

PS3 In U.S. In November? 84

Posted by Zonk from the that's-quite-a-ways-away dept.
Next Generation reports that yet another analyst sees the U.S. PS3 launch a ways off. A gent from the Pacific Crest Securities group forsees a 1M unit strong launch in the U.S. sometime in November, with a Japanese launch the summer before and an EU launch the spring after. From the article: "Despite speculation of high launch prices - some quoting a ludicrously high $700 mark - these numbers will certainly lead to severe shortages. Sony will struggle to meet retail demand with a million units at launch, and will face the same kind of criticism leveled at Microsoft if it fails to back the launch up with regular pre-Holiday shipments."
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PS3 In U.S. In November? More

PS3 In U.S. In November?

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  • Interesting... a Q4 launch for the PS3 would give it a launch window within weeks of the Revolution. Could make for an interesting holiday season...
    • I'm sure that since there are only so many people droping that much money during one quarter (for the holiday season) that both the Revolution and the PS3 will sell at "less than expected" numbers. So I wonder if it's really in their best interests to fight at that point. However, on the flip side it may help to hide the fact that they don't won't have enough units to ship for the season.

      Oh, and Best Buy will now have to have two lines of people waiting at 3am, one for the Revolution, and one for the PS3
      • Oh, and Best Buy will now have to have two lines of people waiting at 3am, one for the Revolution, and one for the PS3. I can just hear the almost religious wars being waged between those lines-- So yeah, it could be an interesting time.

        What would have me chuckling is when one fanboy finds out that they are out of the console he was waiting for and ends up wandering over to the end of the other line. Talk about having to eat some crow. :P
      • Not to mention Best Buy will also have twice the fights, twice the shortages, twice the $2000 ebay auctions, twice the clerks afraid to go to work and face angry parents who weren't smart enough to order their PS3/Revolution months ago and now can't get little Billy his Christmas present.

        Seriously, look at history - do any of us expect that Sony or Nintendo will NOT have launch shortages? Sony's history suggests their shortage will be even worse than the 360's. Of the three console makers, Nintendo's the on
        • Couldn't you also make the argument that because the Revolution is using a more current-gen hardware profile, that it's parts will be easier manufacture? Granted, ATi did create a new chip for the system (Hollywood, IIRC), but most technology should be more within the scope of current production methods, rather than something like a Cell processor (1 core vs. 8 cores).
      • Most customers will choose only one console anyways, regardless of when they launch. Simple really.
  • If they minimize their shipments by avoiding doing something crazy like...oh...let's say giving away a PS3 every 10 minutes for a month. I guess the reality is that sort of scheme doesn't dent the overall shipments much. I think it will be tough for them to overcome the high start-up cost, and if the game offerings just aren't there at release it will be even less compelling to be an early adopter.

  • huh? (Score:5, Insightful)

    by the computer guy nex ( 916959 ) on Tuesday January 17, 2006 @04:14PM (#14493178)
    "If they minimize their shipments by avoiding doing something crazy like...oh...let's say giving away a PS3 every 10 minutes for a month. I guess the reality is that sort of scheme doesn't dent the overall shipments much."

    Crazy?

    60*24*31/10 = around 4,000 Xbox360's. That is nothing compared to the demand. It was effective advertising for both Mountain Dew and the 360. There were some people with a few hundred caps they saved for one drawing.
    • The secret is to go to a university that has Pepsi products (if you're not already on one). Find a social area where there are pop machines (in the case of the University of Colorado, the "Real McCoy Grill" in the engineering center served nicely). Go through the recycling bins and take all the tops (in the Mountain Dew contest, they were colored orange which made them easy to identify).

      I collected about 400 caps with less than an hour of effort. I would have had more if another person hadn't already "farme

  • The whole thing is... (Score:4, Insightful)

    by ecryder ( 851413 ) on Tuesday January 17, 2006 @04:34PM (#14493432) Homepage Journal
    speculative. Who are the sources for these analysts? I'll wait to hear from Sony, thanks.
    • The very fact that we've yet to hear anything from Sony is the whole reason such speculation exists. Spring 2006 is way too close for them to not have a launch date, price point, or initial shipment figures. Even more than rabid gamers, retailers like to have these figures well in advance so they can incorporate it into their budget, and decide how much shelf space to dedicate to it. While November is pretty much a guess, it's not much of a stretch to see their logic: summer is a slow season for games, so i

      • summer is a slow season for games, so it's an unlikely choice for a launch

        If Sony can't necessarily get enough units out at once, then why not have a quiet launch during summer, possibly exclusively through an online store, and then the advertising blitz in fall?

  • I think we can all agree that the Xbox360 launch was dismal.

    Hardware and software glitches, not enough stock, no real nex-generation games at launch and a lackluster Japan release along with rumours about when and how Microsoft will suppor HD-DVD all can be attributed to Microsoft rushing the Xbox360 out the door without proper testing and defining any real rollout plan.

    If it takes Sony until November of this year to release the PS3, then if they are doing so to ensure a rock solid release with lots of real
    • "Hardware and software glitches, not enough stock, no real nex-generation games"

      Have you even played a 360 yet? The only hardware problems were around 2% of people who stuck their power brick behind a hot TV with ventillation. There haven't been any Microsoft software glitches.

      The 360 is over a million out the door. It is far ahead of the PS2 pace 2 months into release.

      No real nex-gen games? Play Kameo, COD2 and PGR3 on any TV with the full 1080 resolution. You are blind to call them non "nex
      • That everytime I am in a gamestore wich is a lot since I got friends at two of them is that each time the 360 has crashed is crashing or is rebooting. Well no not every time. Just enough for me to think, "Ah, MS".

        Same with the dutch trams in amsterdam, some marketing genius at MS has deciced to allow MS OS to be used to display ads on LCD screens inside the trams. Good advertising for MS, their distinctive error messages seen by millions each day.

        If you consider that other consoles including the often ab

      • Re:Take all the time you need, to get it right (Score:5, Informative)

        by oGMo ( 379 ) on Tuesday January 17, 2006 @05:52PM (#14494317)
        The 360 is over a million out the door. It is far ahead of the PS2 pace 2 months into release.

        Wow, a whole million? If you look at the actual facts [wikipedia.org], you'll find Sony sold just shy if a million PS2s on opening weekend... in Japan alone. Over half a million in the US on opening day. And over 100 million to date.

        If Microsoft were to continue selling, on average, 500k a month, it would take them sixteen years of consecutive continuous sales to match the PS2's record.

        Oh yeah, the 360 is a success all right.

      • You would think that fanboys would be disheartened by the fact that, well, the Xbox kind of blew. You would think that a console that maxed itself out in a year compared to the still improving yet considerably older PS2 would lose its fanbase. But no - they just keep chugging along, proudly displaying their white and green flag, singing the same old song. They once said that the Xbox was better than the PS2 because it had better specs. Now, since the PS3 will debut with superior specs - that the 360 is
        • Considering how Nintendo turns more profits than Sony, (Not Sony games division, Sony in it's entirety) well, lets just say that I sure wouldn't mind being 'bitch-slapped' like that. :)

        • Re:Take all the time you need, to get it right (Score:5, Insightful)

          by Malor ( 3658 ) on Tuesday January 17, 2006 @07:34PM (#14495287) Journal
          I've got all three last-gen consoles, plus a 360.

          Of the three older systems, I like the XBox the most; I've preferred the games and the presentation there. Most of the time, when you have the same game on both the PS2 and the XBox, it will load and run fastest, and look the best, on the XBox.

          The Gamecube, despite being unpopular, has always impressed me. It hasn't had as many games, but they've always been well-done... fast and easy to play. It's quite undeserving of its red-headed stepchild reputation. If it had used full-size disks, I don't see any reason why it couldn't have done just as well or better than the other two. I think the tiny game disks were its biggest limitation.

          The PS2 has always felt sort of hackish. It has good games, but the limitations of the hardware are almost always visible in some way. Look at Shadow of the Colossus, for example... a great game, but the PS2 has trouble animating the Colossi. It's still a great ride, but it's rather marred by the lack of horsepower to do what they wanted.

          I haven't seen it, but I've read that the PS2's version of Resident Evil 4 is the best of all three consoles. This surprised me, but I'll take it on faith. If it's true, it means that they are still figuring out ways to make the PS2 run faster, which is pretty cool. The major downside is that there must be, like, 12 guys in the world who can make that hardware sing to that level.

          An easier-to-program architecture strikes me as a better bet, most of the time, for most gamers. 'Normal' programmers are in pretty good supply... truly brilliant ones are hard to find. An easy architecture means that most games will look good and play well. An arcane architecture like the PS2 will start to pay off late in its life, but for a long time, the games will probably be better on the consoles with simpler architectures.

          The best comparison I can think of is the old Commodore Amiga versus Atari ST debates, way back when... the ST, being simpler, had good software sooner. The Amiga's much better architecture started paying off after a few years, and the software (particularly games) on that system ended up being much, much better. But for the first couple years, the ST looked stronger in many ways.

          It strikes me, as a multi-console owner, that the smart thing to do is to buy the easy-to-program system early in the lifecycle, and the tough one near the end, when it's cheap. (assuming you're not a diehard that must own everything, at least.) It's not like a computer... it's not an investment that can pay you back. It's just a toy. You don't really CARE what the architecture is like...all you care about is the games.

          As far as actual GAMING goes, the Revolution is likely to be the best out of the gate. The 360 will hit its stride a year or two out, as the programmers learn its medium-complex architecture. The PS3, most likely, won't truly develop for another year or two longer.

          Ultimately: wait until there's a game you want, and then buy the console. It's about the GAMING, not about wanking over how "powerful" one's console is.

          Remember, too, that the 360 is an actual, shipping product, though still hard to get. You can look at the games NOW and judge for yourself. The PS3 may be better. It's easy to compare the present reality of a shipping product with the possibilities of vapor hardware, and of course Sony would love for you to do that.... anything to keep you from buying a 360. But you can't look at the games on the PS3, can you?

          I'm sure I'll end up with a PS3 eventually. I do not think, however, that it's likely to make the bed and do the dishes, and if it's as arcane as the PS2 was, it's not truly going to hit its stride until 2010 or so.

          So why not wait and buy it when it's cheaper?

          • Ultimately: wait until there's a game you want, and then buy the console.

            Problem is when the game's developer isn't given the chance to work with the publisher and has to release the game online as freeware. This means that players have to buy an older revision of the console that's more likely to accept games not authorized by the console maker. Case in point: can one reliably find a PSP new in box with 2.00 firmware, the latest to have a semi-reliable crack?

            • Isn't it a better idea to port it to the PC if the console companies don't want it? That way it's open to everyone, unlike requiring some arcane ritual to make the game run each time you want to play it. Hell, sometimes I play one game over another because I'm too lazy to change CDs!

              • Isn't it a better idea to port it to the PC if the console companies don't want it?

                How many simultaneous players can you fit on one PC? Most middle-class families are not interested in buying three PCs so that the two kids and the friend that they have over for the afternoon can play simultaneously. And even then, what if the game was intended for a handheld system? Which gaming handheld sold at retail in the United States or Europe is open?

          • I haven't seen it, but I've read that the PS2's version of Resident Evil 4 is the best of all three consoles. This surprised me, but I'll take it on faith.

            It's considered better because it has additional content (Sony refuses to allow late ports without additional content to be published), not because it's technically superior. Gameplay supercedes technical aspects.
          • "I haven't seen it, but I've read that the PS2's version of Resident Evil 4 is the best of all three consoles. This surprised me, but I'll take it on faith. If it's true, it means that they are still figuring out ways to make the PS2 run faster, which is pretty cool."

            Resident Evil 4 has only been released on the Nintendo Gamecube and the Playstation 2, no Xbox version. And , the Gamecube version is actually superior to the Playstation 2 version in graphics. For one, polygon counts had to be cut for the PS2

      • Re:Take all the time you need, to get it right (Score:4, Insightful)

        by Mnemic ( 33264 ) <mnemic.wickedawesome@net> on Tuesday January 17, 2006 @06:55PM (#14494933) Homepage
        For once I wish I had mod points to Mod up some of the comments below this Post.

        As stated in other comments, Xbox has a long way to go before reaching the level the PS2 has managed to reach. Technical Problems aside, the hardware problems has tarnished the image of the X360 release. 2% or not, many seemed to know someone who knew someone who's brother's dad had problems with it. True or not hearsay is powerful.

        Next-Gen is still unknown to the masses. Technology right now is diluting itself. Retailers are pushing Hi-def, but there is little content for it, and non-techies can't tell the diffrence less they see it side by side. HD/Blu-Ray are pushing for new Media, but DVD is out there, and VHS still has a significant role as well, evident by the availablilty of new movies on DVD and VHS Format. Game is no diffrent. It looks like a game. It plays like a game, wow this must be another game!

        It's highly unlikely the PS3 will Fail due to blu-ray, and every article and speculation (since there is NOTHING ELSE but speculation) I've read indicates Blu-Ray costs will most likely get eaten by Sony, akin to DVD drives in the PS2 Release. Sony can build most of the parts for their consoles in house via their own manufacturing plants further reducing the costs.

        Anything is possible, but its pretty unlikely the PS3 will fail. Many thought the market would not support 3 Mainstream consoles when Xbox Came out, but its proven it can, and looks to continue that trend.
        • Many thought the market would not support 3 Mainstream consoles when Xbox Came out, but its proven it can, and looks to continue that trend.

          Actually, since the first XBox was a money loser for Microsoft, the market *hasn't* proven that it can support 3 major consoles. When they are three *profitable* consoles, then the market will have proven that it can support three.

      • Re:Take all the time you need, to get it right (Score:1, Informative)

        by Anonymous Coward
        There haven't been any Microsoft software glitches.

        AHAHAHAHAA. Maybe you should take your own advice and play PGR3 --- potentially the glitchiest launch title ever. And let's not forget other stuff like the COD2 save bug.

        The 360 is over a million out the door. It is far ahead of the PS2 pace 2 months into release.

        No it's not, unless you believe your idiotic ps2 launch numbers which you've been spamming over the boards. The PS2 sold a million in the first 24 hours . The fact that it's taken the 360 a few mo
      • "There haven't been any Microsoft software glitches."

        are you serious? well apparently you havent heard tales of PGR crashing. CoD crashing... and this gem:
        http://www.gamespot.com/news/show_blog_entry.php?t opic_id=24198870 [gamespot.com]

        these are software problems. regardless of whether it is faulty firmware or faulty software from the developers. it is microsofts' duty to ensure that these sorts of things/problems never make it to retail. thats why they have a testing and certification program in place in the first place
      • i read a news release the other day that actually said MS only had 600k units sold total, where are the other 400k? http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=29000 [theinquirer.net]
    • If it takes Sony until November of this year (2006)

      The thing that pisses me off the most is that Microsoft is most definitely trying to push for a rigorous upgrade cycle. The Xbox was released in '01, and the 360 in '05 (four years!). Compare this to the historical lifespans of consoles, and you can see that this is ridiculous. Then they claim that they have a "next generation" console, when in reality it's like a half-generation better. Sorry, but I'd rather wait for something that has more mature har

    • You seriously underestimate the power of being first to market. I mean look at the Nintendo DS if you want an example. I'm a big Nintendo fan, but even I would argue that the DS launch was pretty dismal. Sure there was plenty of hardware to be had, but the launch library was pretty pathetic and key features like internet play didn't even hit the market until a full year later. If you'd asked me this time last year, I would've predicted that the PSP was going to steamroll the DS. Nonetheless, they've built u

      • "But by being first out of the gate(yes the Dreamcast was earlier, but I'm not counting it for simiplicity's sake) Sony was able to dominate Nintendo and Microsoft with momentum alone."

        You're not counting it for simplicity's sake? What does that even mean? You're not counting the Dreamcast because if you did, your point would not stand.

        Yes, being first to market can be an advantage but there are many other factors involved in whether a console will be a success or not. Furthermore, rushing to market to tr

    • I think we can all agree that the Xbox360 launch was dismal.

      I think we can all agree that there is almost nothing that we ALL agree on.

      If it takes Sony until November of this year to release the PS3, then if they are doing so to ensure a rock solid release with lots of really good software titles at the time of release, then by all means, take the time.There is no real point for Sony to release the PS3 before the holiday season. Selling the PS3 in April or May of this year may generate a few million in

  • imho, Sony needs to give us some playable demos.

    I think *then*, the internet browsing public will know to (or not to) wait for the PS3 and buy an XBox 360 and the word will spread.

    Similarly, I imagine a good Japanese release will slow down the American / European XBox 360 sales, so a delayed North America release wouldn't be the end of the world.

    I think some solid realtime evidence is sorely needed to make the gamer/consumer think twice about blowing their console budget on the 360.

    A demo of the online play

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