Life After the Videogame Crash 215
Clark Hall writes "Is it 1983 all over again? E3 is over and millions of gamers are realizing they can't afford a PS3, or an HDTV. Is it time for a steep and painful correction in the gaming market? Pointlesswasteoftime has been tracking what is looking like a Hindenburg voyage for console gaming, with HDTV playing the role of Hydrogen." From the article: "There's going to be a lot of money lost the next few years, a lot of articles written, a lot of panic, a lot of changes. And when gaming comes back, it will hopefully be different and innovative and based on something other than eye candy and the shock value of blood and guts and hookers. Hopefully it will allow for creativity from the players, and room for small, independent game makers to create content. Hopefully it will be something every working person can afford. "
PC Gaming (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:PC Gaming (Score:5, Insightful)
With a console, you know that when you buy, you can play all the games for it.
And do you need an HDTV to play these new systems? I don't think any of them require it.
Re:PC Gaming (Score:2)
While I know he thinks that Nintendo is gonna fail with older gamers because older gamers don't have money to spend on their own games due to their kids... when they go to buy a console for their kids, I think the price will have an effect. Not a "Nintendo wins the console war" effect, but a "the Wii sells b
Re:PC Gaming (Score:2)
Ok, so maybe not that great, but it made buying a $600 console that used pixels the size of your thumb suck a little less.
Re:PC Gaming (Score:2)
And, if I read it right, the 1983 crash was coincident with the introduction of a new gaming platform (the home computer) which destabilized the market a bit, whereas the gaming markets are largely stable now (unless handheld or cell
Re:PC Gaming (Score:3, Insightful)
I remember the crash in the 80s, and I would argue that this was not the case. In fact, I think the author of TFA is correct.
Then, as now, there were new consoles coming on the market. They were too expensive, there were too many optional add-ons that not many games supported, there was a glut of mediocre games for the previous generation of consoles, a
Re:PC Gaming (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:PC Gaming (Score:2)
I paid $300 for my last video card 4 years ago, and I can still play most games that are out there now. Oblivion runs a bit slow at times, but it's playable. I bought an X-Box 3 years ago, and now there's games for the 360 out that I can't play.
You can afford HDTV and video consoles (Score:5, Insightful)
And you can buy a Nintendo Wii by about Presidents Day 2007 for a reasonable price at Costco - maybe even by Christmas 2006.
The world isn't over. Your old TV works fine with a cable box, you don't need a 64 inch screen HDTV, you can settle for a 32 inch or 40 inch one.
Re:You can afford HDTV and video consoles (Score:4, Insightful)
HDTV is a solution looking for a problem. TV was fine the way it is.
Re:You can afford HDTV and video consoles (Score:2)
I mean, there *is* a lot of HDTV content out there... even 1970's movies have enough resolution to be scanned in in HD... PC games have been in "HD" for a long time now... and digital cameras have LONG gone beyond the 0.3 megapixels that SD TVs provide. These may well not be reasons to switch *now*, but if H
Re:You can afford HDTV and video consoles (Score:2, Informative)
lenses have improved too (Score:2)
Re:You can afford HDTV and video consoles (Score:5, Informative)
Two things:
a) This is not true, as any basic check of median income would have told you ("median" being the key word, because it's not as skewed by rich folks as "average" income would be).
b) Even if it were true, the conditions for the industry now are still better than they were from 1977-1980, when video gaming first exploded in this country.
The Atari VCS cost $249 when it was first launched. That's more than $800 in today's dollars. You were lucky to find a 19" TV set for $500 - about $1,500 in today's dollars. And that at a time when unemployment was more than 10%. Yet still, the industry flourished.
There is no economic reason whatsoever why the average American couldn't afford a $400 console and a $500 TV today if they could afford the equivalent of an $800 console and a $1,500 TV in 1977. All this bitching about price is just a lot of whining, nothing more.
I'm not saying everyone can afford it, but if you can't, then you've got bigger problems to solve anyway. There's no use crying about game consoles - work on getting some food on your table and a roof over your head first if you're poor enough that $1,000 for five years or more worth of entertainment is unaffordable. (Remember, TV's can entertain just fine even without a game console hooked up...)
The only difference between now and 1977 is that there is more competition for our disposable income. But why is this something to bitch and moan about? So because you just bought a $300 cell phone or a $1,000 laptop PC or a stack of DVD movies, the electronics and video game industries have to lower their prices for you? To a large extent, they have - adjusted for inflation, everything game-related is cheaper than it used to be (including games). But there's only so far they can go.
I'm not being elitist - I'm saying that most people do have the money, they just don't know how to prioritize their purchases. They act like it's the manufacturers' responsibility to just make everything so cheap that they can afford to buy everything they'd ever want. And those that really don't have the money really need to be concentrating on things other than game consoles anyway.
I don't see any cost parallel between now and 1983. Cost wasn't the reason for the crash anyway - in 1983, there were systems at every price point from about $75 up to $275. And in fact, one of the main reasons for the crash was the exodus from game consoles to more expensive computers that played more advanced games. People would have rather paid $400 for a C64 or $800 for an Apple II than $100 for an Intellivision or $150 for a Coleco Vision. So I don't see that affordability really has anything to do with either era, or anything to do with any possible crash, past or present.
Re:You can afford HDTV and video consoles (Score:2)
Re:You can afford HDTV and video consoles (Score:4, Insightful)
They just don't prioritize them the same way you do.
HDTV isn't a priority for most people with perfectly functional SD sets already in their living room. The problem is worse for gamers, because a signifigant percentage of consoles are likely connected to hand-me-down sets that used to be a family's main set.
The industry needed to go HD at some point, but HD gaming will be irrelevant this generation other than as laying the groundwork for when a signifigant percentage of TVs are HD... perhaps 6 years from now?
Re:You can afford HDTV and video consoles (Score:4, Interesting)
Uh, maybe spread out over those five years. However, if I were going to drop $1000 on anything at once (whether it's a computer or a HDTV and console), it's going to take some saving up. I have no problem keeping a roof over my head, but I also don't have $1000 sitting there with no strings attached ready to be spent. Which leads to...
I'm saying that most people do have the money, they just don't know how to prioritize their purchases.
Out of context, this is one of the truest things ever said on Slashdot. In context, it is one of the silliest.
Maybe their priorities just don't include these items. I have no desire for an HDTV. I'd eventually like to replace my little 13" with something like a 30" (maybe even one with more than just coax input), but even that is low on my list of priorities. Sure, I *could* save up for an HDTV and PS3 in a few months, but right now that money is going into savings for travel, a house, pet care, a new laptop, among other things that are higher on my priority list than these.
Re:You can afford HDTV and video consoles (Score:2)
Out of context, this is one of the truest things ever said on Slashdot. In context, it is one of the silliest.
Maybe their priorities just don't include these items. I have no desire for an HDTV. I'd eventually like to replace my little 13" with something like a 30" (maybe even one with more than just coax input), but even that is low on my list of priorities. Sure, I *could* save up for an HDTV and PS3 in
Re:You can afford HDTV and video consoles (Score:2)
Re:You can afford HDTV and video consoles (Score:3, Interesting)
Who said I was getting a Wii? At least, this year. I just got a GameCube, I'm good til the price drops to $100. I only got the GC because I was finally running out of games on my SNES. I may be a fangirl, but I'm a cheapass fangirl.
Re:You can afford HDTV and video consoles (Score:2, Informative)
I hate these statements, look at things like wage increases and compare them to "adjusted" dollars, there is simply no way my parents were making 4x the amount of money in 1980 then they were today, their wages have remained relatively flat since that time, so I guess they are making 4x less money? Notice how the price of games has remained betwen 35-60us, 40-70CDN. And they've been that way since 1987!! Games s
Re:You can afford HDTV and video consoles (Score:2)
Actually, if I can't afford it, it's the video game companies that have the problem, not me.
Re:You can afford HDTV and video consoles (Score:2)
On the other hand, HD displays are expensive because of research into new
Re:You can afford HDTV and video consoles (Score:2)
You're observations are a bit skewed (Score:3, Interesting)
Median (or any other measure of "average" income) has absolutely nothing to do with whether or not a family lives paycheque to paycheque. The grandparent post is actually bang on, especially in North America but also in the rest of the 1st world too. This is for several reasons:
1) Wages in most 1st world countries have almost,
Re:You can afford HDTV and video consoles (Score:2)
Seems to me that if this happens, it won't just be a recession, it'll be an all-out economic collapse.
People with overvalued houses they can't afford aren't just going to keep carrying that debt: they'll simply default on their loans, and let the banks repossess the houses and try to sell them. It's no
Re:You can afford HDTV and video consoles (Score:2)
Re:You can afford HDTV and video consoles (Score:2)
Re:You can afford HDTV and video consoles (Score:2, Funny)
Expensive little monkeys...
Re:You can afford HDTV and video consoles (Score:2, Funny)
Re:You can afford HDTV and video consoles (Score:2)
Re:You can afford HDTV and video consoles (Score:2)
Why not? They do that in some countries. If people can't act responsibly, it becomes the State's responsibility to take care of them.
Re:You can afford HDTV and video consoles (Score:2)
Re:You can afford HDTV and video consoles (Score:2)
HD cameras cost the same now that decent SD cameras cost 10 years ago. Mostly it's just that we get free resolution for transitioning to digital data storage and letting moore's law run for 10 years.
Re:You can afford HDTV and video consoles (Score:2)
The cost of a camera or three isn't what's going to hold back any random film projects. Even if you go to best buy and pay $1500 each for HD camcorders.
not only that but...HDTV is not LCD or Plasma (Score:2)
I have a beautiful Sony Wega 32" HDTV (up to 1080i) with a TUBE. Yes, the antiquated and unloved tube...but let me tell ya, that thing has an amazing picture, will outlast (probably) any LCD or Plasma and even with the giant footprint (weight alone was 165lbs) it stil
Re:You can afford HDTV and video consoles (Score:2)
Yes, you can get an HDTV for $300. But for $300 (or, say $340 [circuitcity.com]), I can get a giant 32 inch television. This isn't carefully hunting for a sale; this walking into Best Buy or Circuit City with $340 (plus tax) and walking out with a big television. We're (mostly) Americans here. Bigger is better. I like having a big television. For 32 inches of HD I'm paying $700 [circuitcity.com] or more. I've been promised cheap HDTVs for years now, but they keep failing to arrive. HD is nice, but given that most of my signals are SD
Re:You can afford HDTV and video consoles (Score:2)
Just because I have a $1,000 in the bank doesn't mean I'm willing to spend $1,000 on a game system setup.
Crash? (Score:3, Insightful)
And this is why... (Score:3, Insightful)
I just can't justify spending all that money on a game console, and then on top of that, having to shell out THOUSANDS for an HDTV set just so I can see Solid Snake in Hi-Def? Ummm.. NO.
I'm sticking with my old-fashioned Tube T.V. as long as I possibly can, and I'm not buying any new HD or Blue-ray DVD players until the format war is good and over and prices come down to something reasonable. Which means I won't be getting an HD TV or DVD players for probably 5-10 years.
I'm sure I won't miss it either.
Re:And this is why... (Score:4, Insightful)
The point is, with the cost of HD TV's and these new consoles combined, there just isn't the justification to buy one. Many of the better games for the consoles are also out for the PC, and the PC is just so much more versatile that it makes console gaming nothing more than a waste of money.
Re:And this is why... (Score:3, Insightful)
There are tons of examples from other consoles as well, but I'll stick with Gamecube games since I'm most familiar with them:
Metroid Prime
Resident Evil 4
Zelda: Wind Waker
Super Smash Brothers
Super Monkey Ball
Paper Mario
F-Zero GX
Animal Crossing
None of these excellent games are available on the PC, and this is just a few 'Cube games and by no means an exhaustive list. If they don't float your boat, then don't buy a Gamecube. If you don't unders
Re:And this is why... (Score:2)
Fine YOU have spent over $6000.00 on a fancy HDTV setup. Guess what? MOST PEOPLE CAN'T AFFORD THAT! Or they can afford it, but have other priorities, so a fancy HDTV setup isn't really a smart option.
Obviously, I wasn't speaking to individuals such as yourself, who have the disposable income to spend on a big-ticket item like that. For those that do not already HAVE an HDTV setup, the prospect of spending that kind of cash is rather
Re:And this is why... (Score:2)
Myopic (Score:5, Insightful)
So, yes, it's reasonable to say that Sony and Microsoft (and all their 3rd party developers) are in for a harsh awakening, but Nintendo is already on the other side of the crash and things are looking better than ever.
Re:Myopic (Score:2)
It didn't "crash". It had a downturn. That's not the same thing.
Some people, especially those that are too young to remember it, don't realize what 1984 was really like. Consider the fact that there were no game consoles on the market. None. (At least not in the US.) That seems impossible now, until you remember that the Atari 2600 hit in 1977 and most people had never heard of video gaming before that. So it wa
Re:Myopic (Score:2)
Anyway, the XBox 360 has already sold more than 3 million consoles, so it's not like the market will completly go away, though it might not be able to sustain today's prod
Re:Myopic (Score:2)
Nintendo - save us! again! (Score:2)
So it's the Nintendo Wii.
Picture of one million dolars bogus. (Score:3, Insightful)
Otherwise it would be a monster to make any kind of cash on a good bank heist. You would need to hire day laborers just to get all the cash into your rental truck..
Storm
Re:Picture of one million dolars bogus. (Score:2)
Re:Picture of one million dolars bogus. (Score:2)
Anyway, That picture is of an alleged million dollars on display at Binion's Horseshoe, a casino in Las Vegas. Here is a witness account: http://www.amitgoel.com/vega [amitgoel.com]
Re:Picture of one million dolars bogus. (Score:2)
And you just know they'll stiff you!
-Adam
Bah... (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Bah... (Score:2)
Holy crap, finally someone out there who agrees with me. I still play my SNES all the time. If it's fun, play it!
Re:Bah... (Score:2)
Personally, I still like to drag out my C64 every few years, but I admit thatr is mainly nostalghia.
Re:Bah... (Score:2)
And the three games I play the most (still!) on my PC are GTA 3, Railroad Tycoon 2, and Age of Kings (AoE II)
Moronic article (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Moronic article (Score:3, Interesting)
He said the couple non-kiddie-type games looked weak. The article's author seemed indifferent about if the Wii would be successful or not. He did say MS/Sony would bleed though.
"the Wii controller is a cheap gimmick..."
Sadly, the Wii controller 'could' turn into a cheap gimmick. We've seen them before and we'll see them well into the future. We just have time to discover if the controller's gimmick or a useful innovation.
"console hardware loses money. Yeah? And the
Re:Moronic article (Score:2)
Here we go again... (Score:3, Interesting)
Looking at market trends, it's difficult to see just why there will be a big crash. Xbox360 keeps selling, massive turnout for E3, Nintendo is still selling shitloads of Nintendogs, and PS3 will definitely turn heads, no matter the price. Seriously, are these *really* signs pointing to a crash?
Re:Here we go again... (Score:3, Insightful)
Microsoft and Sony and engaged in a "winner take all" style war neither can win. They both have the resources to lose money non these systems but the questions remains, how much is too much? Who will flinch first? Who will come in to compete when one falls off forcing the "winner" to still throw money into the pit?
Companies are in business to make money. Any money they have lost and are losing is a calculated risk, but
This is a software issue (Score:3, Insightful)
Todays games are just barely even worth a $200 console let alone 3 times that price. As the summary mentions, the current crop of games are lacking that certain something that makes you want to play them because they traded it away for fancy graphics and sound.
What video game crash...? (Score:2)
My friends and I are not paying $500+ USD for either Sony or Micrsoft. The jury is st
Re:What video game crash...? (Score:2)
Dupe (Score:2)
maybe it wasn't the Hydrogen (Score:3, Insightful)
(hell, if someone described how dangerous the stuff we fill our cars with now can be to us for a new fuel, it would never get adopted.)
Re:maybe it wasn't the Hydrogen (Score:2)
Hmm...
Right on! (Score:2)
I wonder what other big, recent disasters might have been given a false spin with the general publ
Don't take away my hookers!! (Score:2)
That's all well and good, and I really couldn't care less if something like that happened (which I'm kind of skeptical of anyway). But if they create something "different and innovative", I sure hope they they don't take a
Re:Don't take away my hookers!! (Score:2)
eh, that's ok, because if they really are "concerned parents", then they can pay attention to their kids' lives, and monitor the games and entertainment that their kids partake of. And since they are concerned and involved in their kids' lives, then they wouldn't be buying the same games that I am with the blood, guts, and hookers, right?
The Sky is Falling! (Score:2)
Re:The Sky is Falling! (Score:2)
Well, the article cited [redherring.com] does say "Estimates have been $900 per console, according to Merrill Lynch analysts..." Let's see, $499 retail, minus $900 production cost equals...a good bit more than $400 per machine lost when you consider that Sony only gets about half of the retail price.
What article were you reading?
Is the PS3 really more expensive? (Score:2, Informative)
For many households, their incomes have
Re:Is the PS3 really more expensive? (Score:3, Informative)
The PS3 is launching at EUR 500/600, just like in the US. However, the PS2 launched at EUR 450. What a difference a few years make!
(FYI, advertized prices include VAT/sales tax in Europe, which usually runs in the 15-20% range. So the "EUR 1 = USD 1" rate retailers are using today is about right. Ask the British
Now wait a minute...! (Score:2)
Hey hey, now wait a minute here... HDTV is still a new technology, and the discs and standalone players are barely even out yet. How can they be so sure HDTV will *still* not fall in price like basically any other maturing technology in time? And what's this about PS3 too expensive? Console gaming != PS3. There's that smash hit Wii from Nintendo according to E3 reporters, and of course the Xbox 360.
I call rubbi
Here's what I see (Score:2, Interesting)
Brilliant article (Score:2)
I'm almost 40 years old, now. My wife and I just had our first child last week. I barely have time to log into here to catch the news, much less any inclination for paying that much money for a console to play inferior games to what you get on the PC.
The console market is in trouble, but they don't really want us to know it. They want to hope for a perfect storm of entertainment, and unfortunately for the, the holy grail is realistic and affordable VR gaming.
But what if you bought an HD TV (Score:2)
Nintendo is making a game console (I think) but the PS3 and XBOX 360 are heading toward becoming "content appliances" like I've described. I don't think it's a stupid gamble on the part of MS and Sony. They care about the games, but they care more about people downloading movies and music and such (for a fee) from the MS and Sony networks.
I'm tempted (Score:2, Funny)
I bought the original PS when I could get it, completely modded, for 150DM, I've skipped the second generation completely so far, but I'm tempted (especially since I'm moving to an all-free-software PC) to try the third. So, Wii, XBoX360 and PS3 are my options:
Not only is this a DUPE.... (Score:2)
consoles vs pc (Score:2)
One example... GTA 3 looks 1000x times better on my PC than any version did on the PS2 and a TV set. The same can be said for a great many games. Now I don't know about the new Xbox360 or PS3, but I don't want to have to buy an HDTV and a $600 console to approach what I already have on the computer and nice 21" CRT.
Re:won't be like this forever (Score:2)
But that's what people have been saying for, what, five years now? The U.S. government has already pushed back plans to eliminate analog TV over-the-air broadcasts due to the fact that few people have found it worthwhile to HDTV so far.
In any case, the general consensus seems to be that Sony has made a bad gamble which may result in a DoA console out of t
Re:won't be like this forever (Score:2, Funny)
Re:won't be like this forever (Score:2)
Re:won't be like this forever (Score:2)
How many people bought microcomputers (Apple, IBM) 30 years ago? Only the affluent and the geeks (who sacrificed other things like transportation and hygiene products to afford them). Now everybody can get a sufficiently powerful PC for peanuts.
Re:No Crash, Nintendo will be the #1 Console (Score:2)
Hell yes it does. Despite owning an hdtv, I hooked my 360 up to an SDTV first (just this weekend in fact, since I bought it Saturday past) and LOVED how it looked. It blew me away compared to the xbox sitting next to it. I was even comparing a game on both platforms (Burnout: Revenge) and it was stunningly better.
Then I took it up to my LCD and played at 1080i and got blown away again.
Besides which, HDTV prices continue to fall and will for quite a while to come.
Re:No Crash, Nintendo will be the #1 Console (Score:2)
It may well become the majority of new sets sold in 2 years (especially if you limit it to bigger sets). But that doesn't even begin to touch the huge existing install base of normal TVs. 5 years minimum for it to dent that significantly, 7 more likely. WHich will be just in time for the generation after this.
Re:No Crash, Nintendo will be the #1 Console (Score:2)
I expect in the general population that HD ownership will be at around 30% in 2 years time.
Re:No Crash, Nintendo will be the #1 Console (Score:2)
THe HD even for console gamers is unrealistic as well. Hardcore gamers, maybe. But they're a minority. No kid/teenager is going to be playing on an HDTV, they'll be playing on the cheap TV in their bedroom. Thats about 1/3 of the market there. No college kid is going to be playing on HD, its just too damn expensive. Hell, I barely afforded a tiny little one, and if I had money to make payments on something it would ha
Re:No Crash, Nintendo will be the #1 Console (Score:2)
Sure, but since Sony's justification for the PS3's price tag is the inclusion of the Blu-Ray player, hooking up a PS3 to a non-HDTV makes as much sense as paying $50 to eat a Big Mac.
How is that offtopic? (Score:2)
Re:How is that offtopic? (Score:2)
Re:How is that offtopic? (Score:2)
Dammit, mine too.
Re:HDTV the Great Swindle (Score:5, Informative)
I'm being completely serious: if you can't tell the difference between HDTV and standard def, you need to see an optometrist.
I sit about 12' away from my 50" plasma, and I can easily see a dramatic difference between HD content and standard-definition content. At one point I accidently set my cable box for 480p output, and for the next day or two happened to be watching only standard-definition programming so of course I didn't notice anything wrong. Then I tried to watch a high-definition show, and within five seconds I was hunting through the settings trying to figure out why the picture looked so blurry. It really is that dramatic. I also have a smaller plasma which is farther away from the viewing position (42" at 18') and I can easily tell on that one as well.
Have you actually seen HDTV and standard-definition on the same TV set? I doubt it, or you wouldn't be making claims like this. Or perhaps the set you were comparing on was marked "HDTV compatible" or something equivalent, which just means that it can accept a high-definition signal, but can't actually display it at its full resolution -- typical "EDTV" sets have 480 lines of vertical resolution just like standard-definition TVs do.
Re:HDTV the Great Swindle (Score:2)
Adult Swim is all standard definition, so it's not a good example. 12 Oz. Mouse looks just as crude on a $10,000 television as it does on a $50 one. Flip over to ESPN-HD and notice how craggy Joe Morgan's face really is when he does Sunday Night Bas
Re:HDTV the Great Swindle (Score:2)
Stick in a DVD and you can see your favorite movies all over again, and make out details you never saw before. It can be problematic, in fact--suddenly I could see fingerprints on the g
Re:What idiocy is this? (Score:2)
I agree -- the game industry won't crash. But I don't think PPUs will have anything to do with that.
We Didn't Start The Fire! (Score:2)
I don't think this new Billy Joel remix scans as well as the original...
Re:The moral of the story... (Score:2)