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Japanese Gamers' Post-E3 Reversal 108

Posted by Zonk from the logical-people dept.
Castar writes "Prior to E3, Famitsu readers were interested in the PS3, and Final Fantasy. Post E3, while there's still some excitement over Final Fantasy, they seem to be very interested in the Wii, and concerned about the PS3's high price. It certainly seems that in Japan, at least, Nintendo and Sony's fortunes have reversed. Will this hold through the launch and the succeeding years?" From the article: "Nearly 70% of readers said they are most looking forward to Wii. 21% voted for PlayStation 3, while the others voted for systems already released. 88.4% of readers believe PlayStation 3 is too expensive, while 10% believe it's 'about right'."
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Japanese Gamers' Post-E3 Reversal More

Japanese Gamers' Post-E3 Reversal

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  • 88.4% of readers believe PlayStation 3 is too expensive, while 10% believe it's 'about right'. and 1.6% of the readers think that Sony should sell the PS3 for $1200?

  • Sony was foolish... (Score:2, Interesting)

    by tonywong ( 96839 )
    I'd say retarded, but I guess they just weren't creative enough.

    If they really wanted to capitalize on making a splash, they should have announced that retail prices were going to be marginally higher than the 360, but they could have said that they were going to use eBay for charity auctions on the initial runs, donating half of the money towards a charity of winner's designation, etc. eBay would have paid them big money for this and Sony would have made huge gains in publicity and a feeding frenzy would m
  • As of yet, the 360 isn't selling that well in Japan, and there's little in the future that indicates that will change (regardless of "Dead or Alive Extra Booby Breast Physics), though it probably won't be a total wash as the Xbox was in Japan.

    However, the 360 continues to do well in United States, though my friends in Europe seem to think that it's doing "OK, but not great" out there.

    So I wonder if world wide domination will go to the Wii by default. Take the recent "The Wii is a great secondary system" by both Sony and Microsoft execs, and the recent polls that show that most console gamers are planning on buying the Wii.

    Now, look at how Japan versus US versus Europe may go. I imagine the PS3 will still do well in Japan (though not as stellar as the PS2) because of the "big names" like "Final Fantasy" and "Dragon Quest". But if the DS versus PSP is any indication with recent polls, Japanese consumers are more willing to give Nintendo another shot at life. So final console sales in Japan (barring handhelds) may be for "first console sales" (aka - the first "next gen" console people buy):

    PS3: 50%
    Wii: 40%
    360: 10%

    Granted - the 360 sales maybe be high. Not trying to be mean here - just going by history.

    Then the US and Europe may split into this for initial console sales:

    360: 40%
    PS3: 30%
    Wii: 30%

    So just off of initial console sales alone, the Wii could win. The situation drastically changes when you consider Wii sales as a secondary console - ie: if a majority of homes with a PS3 buy a second console, it may be a Wii, and the same with the 360.

    There are several things that may throw this off, of course - perhaps the majority of 360 owners don't want to buy a Wii because "I'm a 1337 gamer no doesn't like kids games n00b!" or something, but so far, Nintendo has to feel pretty good. As long as they don't screw it up in the next six months, and as long as (unlike Microsoft's launch) they have plenty of units at launch (if anything, they should *overproduce* as much as they can to make sure that everybody who wants a Wii can get one). If the number pan out, then developers might find themselves looking at the Wii for sheer number of sales alone, let alone the unique controller.

    Then again, these numbers are all pulled out of my ass anyway, so who knows? The next year should be rather interesting for gamers.
    • I would bet that a good number of 360 and PS3 owners will also get a Wii in the US.
      I think that in total numbers sold the Wii could end up being the most popular console.
      But only time will tell.

    • "(unlike Microsoft's launch) they have plenty of units at launch (if anything, they should *overproduce* as much as they can to make sure that everybody who wants a Wii can get one)."

      You think that Microsoft chose how many 360s to manufacture for the launch and that once that number was reached, factory floors went quiet? Console shortages are caused by the manufacturer not being able to get them out the door fast enough, not manufacturers trying to hedge their bets and only producing a limited number.

      • I don't think that was what I was intimating - my criticism is that if MS did not have enough console sales for initial launch, perhaps they should have waited another 5-6 months (and, seeing the Japanese sales, perhaps those were consoles better held in reserve for the US market). I don't think MS stopped making 360's - they were too impatient to wait until they had "enough" to at least meet the preorders!

        My bet is the Nintendo has not given a specific date as of yet in the hopes of building up enough sto

        • "I don't think that was what I was intimating - my criticism is that if MS did not have enough console sales for initial launch, perhaps they should have waited another 5-6 months (and, seeing the Japanese sales, perhaps those were consoles better held in reserve for the US market). I don't think MS stopped making 360's - they were too impatient to wait until they had "enough" to at least meet the preorders!"

          You said Nintendo should "overproduce." How exactly do you believe that is to be done? Console man

          • Overproduce: produce more then they believe there is a market for. If they look at the pre-orders and have enough to meet those, then they should "overproduce" and ensure there's enough for that and more.

            I think you're doing a little bit of hair splitting here - I'm recommending that Nintendo make far more consoles than they think they may have to meet initial demand (aka - overproduce). You seem to think that I'm inferring that they just stop making consoles at a certain point, which I am not. I don't

            • "I don't see why you are confused about this issue."

              It couldn't be that you're using language that isn't clear, could it? No, of course not. I must be an idiot for not being able to interpret exactly what you are trying to say! Yes yes, that's it!! Brilliant.

              "Overproduce: produce more then they believe there is a market for. If they look at the pre-orders and have enough to meet those, then they should "overproduce" and ensure there's enough for that and more."

              But the manufacturer does not stop manufact

              • I think you're being a little too sensitive about this.

                Take a breath. There we go. Calm? OK. Good.

                1. I am calling Microsoft's console launch bad. Now, I'm not saying that you need a hard number to justify sales - but let's face it: Microsoft simply did not have enough units to meet the semblance of demand. In their case, a 6 month wait would have:

                a) Made sure that they had plenty of units for the US launch for the initial purchase period
                b) For the Japan launch, given more time for more Japanese-cen
      • You think that Microsoft chose how many 360s to manufacture for the launch and that once that number was reached, factory floors went quiet? Console shortages are caused by the manufacturer not being able to get them out the door fast enough, not manufacturers trying to hedge their bets and only producing a limited number.

        No, I think they have a parts shortage, as has been extensively covered in the print edition of the Wall Street Journal.

        Why? What have you heard?
        • The "you" in my comment was not directed at you, obviously.
          • ah, so it was in regards to the parent of my reply.

            However, the original parent at least attempted to predict console percentages for EU, US, and Japan separately, and didn't treat US predictions as if they applied to worldwide sales. As the originator of the discussion, he had a fairly insightful post that was a lot closer than much of the hype I've been seeing before E3.

            A few comments have been made that Japanese gamers are far more likely to buy expensive game consoles than might be true in the US/EU -

            • "ah, so it was in regards to the parent of my reply."

              Listen, if you can't even follow a simple nested view of comments, I don't have time to explain anything to you.

              "However, the original parent at least attempted to predict console percentages for EU, US, and Japan separately, and didn't treat US predictions as if they applied to worldwide sales. As the originator of the discussion, he had a fairly insightful post that was a lot closer than much of the hype I've been seeing before E3."

              I didn't treat US

    • So final console sales in Japan (barring handhelds) may be for "first console sales" (aka - the first "next gen" console people buy):

      PS3: 50%
      Wii: 40%
      360: 10%

      Granted - the 360 sales maybe be high. Not trying to be mean here - just going by history.

      Hmmm, I think you're overestimating the PS3 portion in Japan, my guess (like yours, which you admitted was also pulled out of your ass) would be more like:

      PS3: 35%
      Wii: 55%
      360: 10%

      Then the US and Europe may split into this for initial console sales:

      360: 40%
      PS3: 30%
      W
    • As of yet, the 360 isn't selling that well in Japan, and there's little in the future that indicates that will change (regardless of "Dead or Alive Extra Booby Breast Physics)

      I was personally insulted by DOA: Beath Volleyball. Insulted. As far as I was concerned, it was insulting to me personally, as a long time game player to have that kind of tripe lauded as a game of the future. If I wanted softcore pornography, I'd buy one of those 3 rags at the newsstand. If I wanted a volleyball game, I'd probably hav
      • " was personally insulted by DOA: Beath Volleyball. Insulted. As far as I was concerned, it was insulting to me personally"

        You seriously need to relax. It's a big world out there, and almost none of it cares about you personally at all.

        I don't recall anyone saying DOA was "the game of the future". It's a game in a market of games. Some like it, some don't. If you don't then don't buy it.

        So simple.
        • I don't recall anyone saying DOA was "the game of the future". It's a game in a market of games. Some like it, some don't. If you don't then don't buy it.

          Not only was that kind of thing not said, but nothing similar was even said by Itagaki-san, Team Ninja's leader and publicity hound. The game was designed first as "fan service" and second to be silly and relaxing. It succeeded on both counts and, despite GP's perception about how much "credit" should be given to gamers, it sold extremely well (had it
    • What if both the PS3 and 360 markets take this whole "Wii is a secondary console" thing to heart? Lets say that 25% of all 360 owners, and 25% of all PS3 owners decide to opt for the Wii as well as their console of choice?

      Thats a pretty decent strategy. I dont know which console people own, but from my own experience it has been just one. Usually someone owns only an Xbox, PS2, or Gamecube, or if they own two it is the Xbox and the PS2.

      Now if Nintendo has all of its fanboys buy the Wii, AND manage
    • Dead or Alive Extra Booby Breast Physics

      So...has this been announced yet?

      I'm sorry, did you say something else too?
    • Your numbers don't match what you are saying. If "most console gamers are planning on buying the Wii", then the Wii will win (sell more consoles than the others). Judging by how "everyone" is bashing Sony, being indifferent to Microsoft, and praising Nintendo, I think the Wii will dominate all markets this time around.

  • Ouch (Score:5, Interesting)

    by wilgibson ( 933961 ) on Tuesday May 30, 2006 @12:03PM (#15429181)
    When 88.4% of the polled market says the price is too high maybe you should listen. This is extremely true in Japan, where while the younger generation still has money to burn, they aren't going out and buying things that cost $600 not while they are paying sometimes almost $1000/month for that one bedroom appartment.

    Hell, when I went in March to see my girlfriend, the only person I ever saw with a PSP was her brother. His friends said they wanted to get one, but that it was too expensive.

    • Re:Ouch (Score:4, Insightful)

      by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday May 30, 2006 @12:33PM (#15429441)
      I'm not sure if this demonstrates that the price is too high for the PS3 as much as it shows that there is no compelling reason to own a PS3 and the price is too high.

      Seriously, when you compare the Wii and the PS3 what you notice is that practically every game on the Wii looks interesting enough to make you want to (at least) try it whereas every game on the PS3 seems like you've played the exact same game before; also the Wii is releasing many of their largest franchises (Metriod, Zelda, Mario, Smash Bros.) within the first 9 months, where the PS3 has none of it's major titles due out before next E3.

      Why would you be interested in a $600 game machine which has no interesting games?
      • I think you raise a good point here. Even if the PSP cost the same as a DS, I'd still get the DS, mostly because there's a lot of cool games I'd like to play. If the PSP cost 10 bucks, I might get one, but that doesn't mean I have a good reason to.

    • Hell, when I went in March to see my girlfriend, the only person I ever saw with a PSP was her brother. His friends said they wanted to get one, but that it was too expensive.

      While antecdotal, that's a great example. Most friends that I have who want a PS3 are angry about the price. Why angry? Because they really want a PS3, but they can't even remotely afford one.

      I tell them they should either look into getting a Wii, or stow their money until the games they want most come out (like MGS4). If they

    • When 88.4% of the polled market says the price is too high maybe you should listen.

      Not if you sold 25 million units of your last console and have no way of selling more than about 2 million units of your new one in the first six months. about 10% said the price was ok, plus at least I have lots of stuff that I'd say was too expensive but that I've bought anyway so I'd say Sony knew what they're doing.

      The only reason for Sony to sell the PS3 at a lower price the first few months would have been to keep pe

  • RPG Shift (Score:3, Interesting)

    by ureshii_akuma ( 745410 ) on Tuesday May 30, 2006 @12:13PM (#15429262)
    While it is all speculation, and we will have to wait 'till the sytems are out a while to know if there is a change in the market, I have been wondering if the price of the PS2 combined with the input device of the Wii might mean we see a shift back to Nintendo as the primary Japanese RPG / SRPG platform.

    One of the main reasons I own a PS2 is for Japanese RPGs - plain and simple, it is where most of the developers are. The primary reason? The prolific amount of PS2s in the wild in Japan.

    Fast forward to 2007/2008. IF the price of the PS3 negatively impacts its adoption rate in Japan, and IF the price and novelty of the Wii positively impacts its adoption rate in Japan, suddenly I could see a lot of development houses making the following chocies - ignore the PS3 and continue working on PS2 titles (systems seem to last longer in terms of game releases in Japan than they do in the US), or develop Wii titles. The Wii control scheme would likely work well with menu driven (point-and-click) interfaces.

    Of course, there are some big ifs there, and of course big dev houses like Square-Enix will likely stick with the PS3 for their primary platform, but polls like the one for this article do lead me to believe such a shift is not all together impossible.

    • I'd think the big dev houses will switch first- they have the money to hire devs to port the game. Of course, Sony will shove money at them to stay exclusive, especially Square. It was FF7 being PS exclusive that kicked the original playstation into gear.

  • console size (Score:1, Interesting)

    by Anonymous Coward
    the japanese consumer is also well known for not liking large consoles - space is limited so their consoles gotta be smaller in nature.

    the ps3 is pretty damn big, like xbox size, be interesting to see when the console is more visible if that'll deter the market even more.

    i don't believe the wii is enough for a lot of gamers out there so they will end up choosing a 360 or a ps3. once ms gets their RPGs out (and there are more than a few lined up - all geared for that japanese market) - you might see the 360
  • I dont have any links myself, but I myself have seen one or two "post E3 reports" that revealed that Japanese gamers arnt all that concerned over the price of the PS3, or atleast unconcerned because the PS3 will be the system that their games will be on.

    I really should get some links, but its nice to see such positive reflection on the Wii in Famitsu.
  • In the article, notice how far down Halo 3 is rated for Anticipated Games - it's number 10 out of 10.

    This bodes not well, since most of the games listed are Wii or cross-platform, meaning Nintend can pick up most of those players, or Sony, but the xBox will only sell to hentai fanboys looking for certain dimensional aspects of mammary gland physics (or lack thereof).
    • You say it's number 10 of 10 of anticipated games, but you have to take into account that it's so far off. Look at the games that are coming out soon, in the very near future, and you see that the levels of anticipation are much higher. As the launch of Halo 3 nears, and more games that people are drooling over are released (gears of war, too human, etc.), you'll see it climb again. Personally, my most anticipated games are Too Human and The Darkness...
      • good point, but then, remember this is Japan, so I doubt there are quite so many waiting with baited breath for Halo 3, and from what I've seen, the list looks pretty close to what I'd expect if people have already made a mental shift towards the Wii, with some Japanese interest in the local Sony PS3.
    • I'd say Halo 3 being #10 on the list is rather impressive. Japanese gamers don't like FPS games in general, and they don't like the Xbox.
    • It's no surprise that Halo would end up last on that list for Japanese gamers. FPS titles are not nearly as popular there as it is here. It's like expressing shock that Mobile Suit Gundam ZZAlpha-Beta-Google is not a top 10 anticipated title in the US, or that the latest date simulator isn't in the top 5. Different cultures means different tastes in games and genres.

      What is interesting is that an FPS game made the list at all, and that it's Halo 3. As one other poster mentioned, it depends on whether or not
      • It's famitsu, what they're refering to as Bioshock, you probably better know as Resident Evil. It's not the spiritual heir to system shock coming out on the 360 and the PC(I think the PS3 as well). Nor is it Resident Evil 5 that's coming to the PS3/360. It's a different Resident Evil, as far as we know so far.

        So that one is curious, since I didn't think any footage at all had been shown of that game, just an announcement.

  • First Time Buyer (Score:4, Insightful)

    by Draracle ( 977916 ) on Tuesday May 30, 2006 @12:45PM (#15429531)
    As a long time gamer I have never owned a console. I have always followed the matra: "Anything your console can do, my PC can do better". So, yet again, my PC is already out-performing the Xbox and Sony offers nothing but more beef -- and my PC will just pack on a few more pounds itself. But the Wii... wow. This thing touches on something that the new Hollywood-like gaming industry has fogotten. Hardware specs and graphics do not make a game... any more than a pile of icing makes a cake. The Wii, imho, is tapping back into the idea of "gaming" and then taking it in its logical direction (which is not better rendering speeds). For the first time ever, I will be buying a console system. I finally see a system that says "I am a gamer" and is backed by a company which, in taking such a risk, is making obvious its understanding of gaming. The view from here is that the Wii will be a helluvalotta fun. Sony and Microsoft, well you can kiss my PC's shiny metal ass.
  • Anyone think that MS had plenty of studies done about the x-box (both) and their prospects in japan?

    So far both bombed.

    Did anyone think that Sony when it went into the console business had a change against the mighty nintendo?

    No and they were very wrong.

    People just don't seem to be very good at predicting what will happen with consoles.

    The more predictions I see for the Wii being a smashhit the more I am feeling that Wii is building up a hype that it can't deliver. Those launch titles better be really

    • Re:Polls and surveys (Score:2, Interesting)

      by ClamIAm ( 926466 )
      I think that in the video game industry, people try and draw logical conclusions without first really defining their starting point. Just thinking about this for a second, I put forth the assertion that there are two components gamers love: something significantly better than before, and something that is a new idea.

      Now, there's a fine line between "new idea" and "gimmick". I think that Nintendo walks this line every day. When the DS and the Wii controller were both announced, people at first were prett

  • Brain Age? (Score:4, Insightful)

    by blitzsieg ( 973709 ) on Tuesday May 30, 2006 @01:46PM (#15430165)
    If the past few months have shown us anything about Japan, it's that they dig innovation. Do you know what the recently surpassed #2 selling video game of all time for the first day is in Japan? Brain Age. That's right, the simple, yet highly addictive game that could have been done by one programmer in a few months sold 415,000 copies in Japan on the first day.

    What's this tell us? That the Japanese are ready for innovations in games. And honestly, the only system so far to show any innovation is the Wii. The 360 is going to flop in Japan. The PS3 in my opinion is just offering the same games that only look prettier.
    • The Japanese are also nuts over endless Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest sequels, so it isn't necessarily their gaming population that so craves innovation.

      The way I'd interpret the success of Brain Age in Japan is the fondness of technology that their population has, even among non-gamers. This enables non-game electronic entertainment like Brain Age and Nintendogs to flourish there.

  • I've always been an XBox naysayer, but as for the Japanese market, there are two titles that very well may be the 360s Halo of Japan: Lost Odyssey and Blue Dragon. I can't stress the importance of these titles enough. Lost Odyssey is a project headed up by the former Final Fantasy mastermind, and at his side is the world's most famous video game composer, Nobuo Uematsu (saying that he has "rock star" status in Japan is a very large understatement). From the looks of it, it's going to be a HUGE game, with a
    • "Blue Dragon, while not having the star status of the former, still is going to be a huge release."

      Blue Dragon is also being headed up by Hironobu Sakaguchi, also has a Nobuo Uematsu soundtrack, and it has character designs by the freakishly popular Akira Toriyama of Dragon Quest (and Dragonball) fame. Given that it's going to be released before Lost Odyssey (they're pushing for later this year), I'd say Blue Dragon is actually by far the higher-profile of the two. It's probably worth noting that the last t

      • I was not aware of their involvement in Blue Dragon, partially because I know so little about Blue Dragon. BTW: Uematsu WAS involved in writing some of the music for Chrono Trigger... 13 tracks, if I remember correctly, most notably, of which, is probably the boss battle theme. But yes, the bulk was done by Mitsuda, who was just getting his composing legs at the time (sadly, I feel that it's by far his best score, I have not been impressed with his work since.)

        And yes, the 360 may very well be mine by Chr

  • ...but another survey said that three-quarters of the surveyed Japanese gamers wanted to buy a PS3 [whatjapanthinks.com], whilst just half of all of them had even heard of the Wii!

    (And in another survey, grannies have the highest ownership percentage of DSes [whatjapanthinks.com].)

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