Why the PS3's February Sales May Be Misleading 127
1up's Luke Smith takes a look at February's NPD numbers, and has an observation to make about what they might mean for Sony. Though the company is almost certainly not selling as many PS3s as they'd like, the console still sold more units between November and February than a supply-constrained Xbox 360 did last year ... and despite a $200 more expensive pricetag. Though the console is certainly getting off to a slow start (and really needs great software, fast), it's still keeping pace with Microsoft's console from a year ago. "What does this mean for Sony? Considering the system's higher price point, if the platform can keep pace with the Xbox 360 through the first year (while the software matures), regardless of the installed base, the system has to be considered semi-successful. A concerning statistic between the two platforms' first January and February months is the drop-off in sales for those two months. From January 2006 to February 2006 the Xbox 360 sales trailed off 36% (250K units down to 161k units). At the same point in its lifespan, Sony's PlayStation 3 experienced a drop-off of 48% (244K units down to 127K units). That drop in sales, considering the units are available at retail, is cause for concern. Yet, despite trailing off by 25% more than its supply-constrained predecessor, the system does still cost $200 more."
My biased take (Score:5, Insightful)
I want to give my take on the issue. Analysts pull numbers out of their ass, I can do that too. I will say up front that I am heavily biased against the evil ones... er, I mean, Sony.
Sony sold a whisker more units of the PS3 than Microsoft did of the Xbox 360 during the same timeframe. But they arguably should have sold piles more of them. The size of the gaming market is increasing, after all.
I personally believe what happened is that the long wait ate up a lot of Sony customers. While people were waiting for the Playstation 3, the Xbox 360 was eating up some of those people. Less of them will therefore be buying a PS3. I think the price factor might even be less significant than this issue, except in the UK, where the cost of the system is truly ludicrous.
I believe the long wait also ate up Sony exclusives. Developers were seeing that Sony was going to be last to the party and market share was going to decline as a result. Making an exclusive makes sense when you're making it for the most popular platform in the generation. It doesn't when you aren't. The battle for this generation is still very much up in the air, of course, and Sony is simply not a sure thing in this round.
Gamers follow the games. If the Final Fantasy franchise becomes nonexclusive (only niche final fantasy titles are available on other platforms) then Sony might as well bend over and kiss their ass goodbye.
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If I have to choose between the lesser of two evils, and the choices are Microsoft and Sony....
Man. That's a hard choice... I think I'd still lean towards Sony though. Microsoft is still actively becoming more evil, but I think Sony has peaked.
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Of course they will shrink! People could not buy it, and now they can. If they sell one unit, that shrinks the gap. But unless Sony actually manages to surpass BOTH of the other players in this game, they will lose their momentum. The PS2 was successful in part because it was brilliantly executed (although I still think they were idiots for making the platform so difficult to develop for) and in part because of the sheer momentum gained from the PS1. If they lose that momentum now they may never get it back
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Uh, if you could show me precisely where I said that, I'd be interested. Because I never did.
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The Past... (Score:3, Insightful)
With Nintendo on its way to passing the Xbox 360 and with the DS trouncing the PSP... does keeping pace with the XBox360 really mean a success. At the end of the day... they have still lost money. Keeping pace is nothing but par and hoping that the current leader(m$) makes a mistake. And forget about the supposed 10 year life cycle of the PS3. Think about the graphics cards from 5 years ago(just look at the ps2). 10 years is a long time.
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I won't touch the 'Wii is not next-gen' bit. There's no point in arguing against prejudice.
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Rob
Re:The Past... (Score:4, Interesting)
That's exactly why Nintendo saw its domination of the console market get eaten away, generation by generation. They hate releasing new consoles, and they have to be dragged kicking and screaming to do so by the rest of the market. Their refusal to consistently refine and upgrade their hardware has hurt them before, and I'm sure it will hurt them again--developers are already complaining that they're reaching the limits of what the Wii can do, which at this stage of the game is a little sad.
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Nintendo? The company that made the Game Boy, then the Color, then the Advance, then the SP, then the Micro? What are you smoking?
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Exactly.
There was a nine (9) year gap between the introduction of the Game Boy and the Game Boy Color. And the upgrade was modest at best. Do you honestly maintain that nine years isn't a very long time in between generations in the game console market?
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I couldn't stand the Gameboy, and never would buy one (note, Gameboy Advance SP was worthwhile), but it won. Year after year, it won.
People who say that the N64 was graphically inferior were just wrong. Nintendo's decision to go with cartridges again may have hur
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I think ultimately the Gameboy hurt Nintendo. It was a unique situation that made Nintendo kept trying to replicate. Like with the GameCube Nintendo decided they were going to make another long-lasting console. They even marketed to gamers, insisting to us that whil
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I think it saved them. The N64 did quite poorly, the Gamecube even worse, but for what seemed like two years the top two bestselling games every single week were Pokémon Red and Pokémon Blue. Monochrome games on an antique console that made Nintendo fabulous amounts of money while Sony were owning the home console market.
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the customers get a long useful lifetime out of their device and a large selection of titles, the developers get a long useful lifetime out of each title they make, and less time wasted learning new platforms. and manufacturers gain long useful lifetimes for their R&D work, and they gain significant savings as technology improves and lowers manufacturing costs.
with short turnarounds cu
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I dunno that I think anyone's dragging them kicking and screaming; it looks like they're on their own schedule.
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Re:The Past... (Score:4, Funny)
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Yeah, except that the Turbografx was released first, the Genesis second, and the SNES last (over two years later than the others) - exactly opposite of where the generation ended up.
Slash needs to RTFA! (Score:2, Informative)
250,000 is bigger than 244,000.
161,000 is bigger than 127,000.
PS3 sold LESS units than the "supply-constrained Xbox360", and the PS3 isn't - as Sony so frequently tries to say - "supply-constrained."
It's just a waste of money, and the sales figures are the proof.
Re:Slash needs to RTFA! (Score:5, Informative)
Second paragraph of the article;
"During its first four months at retail, Microsoft's Xbox 360 was supply constrained but still managed a sell-through in the U.S. of 1.02M consoles through February 2006, according to NPD figures. With suffocating supply constraints during the November launch period, Sony's PlayStation 3 still outsold the Xbox 360 during the same four-month launch window with 1.06M consoles sold through February 2007."
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i think Sony's sales execs are confusing "suffocating supply constraints" with "choking on a dick"
MS suffered the former with the release of the xbox 360, Sony suffered the latter
cluebat (Score:5, Insightful)
Unfortunately for Sony, they are only barely meeting last year's extremely supply-constrained Xbox 360 sales. And by failing to meet Xbox 360 sell-through figures, they are losing ground at a ridiculous pace.
Sony doesn't get to hop into a time machine and pretend the last year's Xbox 360 sales didn't happen.
Sony is 4 million units behind Microsoft, and that gap is growing every month.
Can we stop saying "price point" please? (Score:1, Insightful)
Comparing the current prices of the xbox and playstation is not economic theory, it is discussing the actual prices (or in some cases suggested prices) of the goods. But they do not represent price points.
Using jargon like "Price point" does not make you sound smarter... hav
Dreamcast comparisons (Score:5, Informative)
So what? The first four months of the 360 were disasterous due to supply. Microsoft haters delighted in pointing out that it was wayyy behind the first four Dreamcast months. As it happens, the PS3 is also well [vgcharts.org] behind [vgcharts.org] the first four months of the Dreamcast. (And it should be noted that it's behind in both hardware and software, whereas 360 was only behind on hardware).
The PS2 is a poor yardstick. (Score:4, Insightful)
Simply put, the PS2 had a fantastic first full holiday season in 2001. Sure, it was competing against the Gamecube and the Xbox, but between those they had only two then-available killer apps: Halo and Super Smash Bros. Melee. The PS2 had a great library of titles: Final Fantasy X, Metal Gear Solid 2, Devil May Cry and (depending on your market) Grand Theft Auto 3 and Tony Hawk's Pro Skater 3 or Gran Turismo 2 and Onimusha. And these were just the ones that sold over a million worldwide by year's end 2001. At the time, all but one of those (THPS3) were exclusive to Sony's machine.
Fast-forward to holiday season 2007. Final Fantasy XIII won't be here or in Europe in time for the holidays (remember, there's an 8-11 month lag after the initial Japanese release). Metal Gear Solid 4 will be here, but not in Europe (assuming standard delays). Devil May Cry isn't exclusive anymore and Grand Theft Auto IV comes out on multiple platforms at once. I'll be amazed if we get Gran Turismo before 2008's holiday season.
Meanwhile, the Wii may continue dominating in the untested non-gamer/casual market demographics, and the 360 will have a strong library of games, not to mention the new Halo title.
This does not mean doom for the PS3. They still have interesting titles. They still have Blu-Ray which with the release of Casino Royale is turning from an unnecessary add-on to something at least worth investigating further. This year, Sony has something they've never had before: real competition. The PS3 won't dominate the way the PS2 did in its second year. There will be a PS4. But they've burned a lot of marketshare as a result of their hubris, and their previous victory won't be repeated to the same extent this time.
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Comparing Holiday 2001 to Holiday 2007 for PS2 and PS3 is still valid as they are the same time period after launch.
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That disheartens me a little...
This post is slightly off topic I know, but I just found it interesting.
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People will see the 360 and PS3 versions of upcoming multi-platform titles and wonder "hey, why does my Wii version not look like that"... Within weeks, ebay will be flooded with 2nd user Wii's
Didn't we go over this before? (Score:1)
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That said, we have to work with what we've got. While incomplete, that doesn't mean the NPD numbers are completely useless. It just means you have to take it with a grain of salt. The industry and media have been using the numbers for quite some time now, and even though it's incomplete, they are generally a good sign of sales trends. Essentially, that means the numbers that are missing (big-box reta
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Another take (Score:3, Interesting)
So now, the PS3 is suffering the same fate, TERRIBLE software. But whats different this time around is the fact the old exclusive titles are coming out on both the PS3 and the 360, so based on cost and other titles available a consumer may lean towards the 360 instead of the ps3.
Its still way to early to predict the success of either console, I personally have both and am hoping the PS3 finds its market and they regain some of their exclusive titles back because so far the PS3 is just a 360 in disguise with respect to gaming.
The games make it (Score:1)
I live in Australia so insta
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Zelda isn't what's selling Wii. It was once - on launch night I and all the other fanboys in the queue were after that game - but not now. What's driving the insatiable demand for Wii now is Wii Sports. Those fanboys have gone home and played Zelda, but their families and friends have had a go on Tennis or Bowling and they want that for themselves. It's them who are now buying up all the Wiis that Nintendo can produce - the Zelda fans
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More expensive? (Score:5, Interesting)
40GB more hard disk, BluRay Disc, built-in WiFi, built-in card-reader, standard USB peripheral interface, free Internet multiplayer gaming, and interesting extras...like the new Folding@Home...or the upcoming PS3 Home.
To purchase Microsoft's WiFi adapter and their HD-DVD drive...that sets you back $300 more...so now your Xbox360 didn't just cost $400. To reach up to what you get with your $600 PS3 purchase...you have to pay at least $700 on the Xbox360. And you haven't added your Xbox Live Gold ongoing subscription costs if you are into multiplayer online or other online content.
There are poor games and brilliant games on both side of the 360 vs. PS3 'war'. Neither console had a lot of games out initially either. So, both of those are not really talking points. But the generalization that the Xbox360 is just flat out cheaper...well...that depends on what you want out of your system. If you don't want HD movies, free online play, built-in WiFi, or any of the other extras or untapped future potential of the PS3...then sure, the Xbox360 has some brilliant games out. But I know there are a lot of players like myself that want the extras that PS3 already provides, and we can pass up "Gears of War".
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You're missing one factor. One console is made a well liked company that people trust to supply high quality consumer produ
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You haven't actually seen an XBox 360, have you?
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Not good enough to match sales; figures misleading (Score:1)
Comment removed (Score:4, Interesting)
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FFS people - it's an opinion. Opinions are not informative, unless you really were begging to be informed of random consumer opinion.
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About face required (Score:2)
If sony wants to retain it's console crown, they need to do something, and fast. The 360 has a very large number of titles coming out that have me (and many others) extremely excited...the PS3 only has couple titles that could have me (and many others)saying the same thing.
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That's fine that it costs more, but sony is also LOSING more on each PS3 sold.
If sony wants to retain it's console crown, they need to do something, and fast...
They are. Seen the Australian and NZ pricing lately? AU$1000 or NZ$1200 (take your pick) for the consoles alone. No games. No HD connectors. No free HDTV. Compare that price to the US price (for a PS3 without software emulation I might add) and theres quite a bit of 'profit' made on each console sold. Also the EU/AU PS3 version also costs ~US$30 cheaper to produce than the US/JP version.
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<Beavis>
heh.... 3-way
</Beavis>
Re:Hoping for the worst (Score:4, Insightful)
Hubris. Telling us that we should want to work longer to buy their overpriced console didn't help. Nor did trashing the 360's emulation-mode compatibility and then releasing the European PS3 with emulated PS2 compatibility. Nor did lying about why vibration wasn't in the controller.
Having actually used one for several hours, I can say The PS3 is a pretty damned nice console. It's decently quiet (though not as quiet as many say,it's still quieter than the 360), has a cool UI with some nice features (decent browser, keyboard/mouse support), runs Linux (and Folding@Home), has good graphics, plays Blu-Ray movies, and (in the US/Japan) has virtually 100% PS2 compatibility.
The PS3 could have been a home run for Sony. It's a damn fine console. But $500 is too expensive for a mass-market device. There's nothing in the $500 PS3 that's not in the $400 XBOX - except for a Blu-Ray drive. With the format war and high-priced content, most of us aren't all that interested in Blu-Ray - at least not yet.
The 360 has plenty of awesome titles, HD TV episode downloads (including South Park and Star Trek: TOS, which, to my knowledge, have never been broadcast or released in HD elsewhere), music streaming (Windows Media Connect) - even while you are playing a game, Live Arcade (flow is cool, but so is Lumines, Hexic, Small Arms, and lots of other titles on Live), Media Center Extender (in HD), and a lot more.
The PS3 can't just be "as good as the 360". Linux, a web browser, and keyboard/mouse support are cool features, but they aren't what most people buy a console for. The people who want such features probably ALREADY have a PC hooked up to their TV.
It's not that the PS3 is bad. But it's late, overpriced, and Sony has been pissing everyone off. Slashdot doesn't like hubris.
(FYI - I own none of the three "next-gen" consoles)
Re: Hoping for the worst (Score:3, Informative)
Correct, but the same cannot be said in reverse. For example the $400 X-box has twice the system ram of the $500 PS3. It also has a hardware scaler [joystiq.com] built in.
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Re:Hoping for the worst (Score:5, Interesting)
Although the xbox may be more powerful I would defiantly say that ps2 was the best console of its generation. Good controllers, good developer support, complete backwards compatibility, number 2 in graphics (over game cube), and it made more then 3 games I really felt like playing (something I can't say about game cube of Xbox)
Honestly I didn't think anyone didn't could still believe that the ps2 didn't win the previous console war. As for the next one, the ps3 has a lot of ground to cover (somewhere around 7 mill to sell) but neither the wii of the xbox360 have the numbers to be considered a true leader yet (neither have sold over 10 mill worldwide as of yet).
I'm no sony fanboy, I just go where the good games are. I haven't purchased any of the next gen consoles yet because so far none of them offer 3 titles I really want to play.
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Personally, I absolutely hate the dualshock, and the psp controller for that matter (sony had to chance to make a great controller without backward-compatibility worries when they made the psp -- and they completely dropped the ball). The general painfulness of sony controllers is the nu
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Are you kidding me?
You make some good arguments, but some of your claims smell of fanboyism. Have you actually ever played a Cube? Have you seen Resident Evil 4 or Metroid Prime?
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His statements are accurate. I own a GameCube, I have 2 games for it. There's a couple of games I might like to try, but I'm too busy playing some truly great games on my PS2 to go looking for the few games for the GameCube that don't suck.
It's quite possible to not like Resident Evil or Metroid. I have no desire to play either game.
The PS2 controller is, in my opinion, far superior to both the GameCube controller and the Xbox controller.
And the PS2 can definitely outperform the Cube.
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His statements are accurate. I own a GameCube, I have 2 games for it. There's a couple of games I might like to try, but I'm too busy playing some truly great games on my PS2 to go looking for the few games for the GameCube that don't suck.
Dude, check out IGN's top 25 PS2 games article. Then check out IGN's top 25 Cube article. Now tell me the games on the PS2 list are better. Tell me that, and I'll show you a liar.
It's quite possible to not like Resident Evil or Metroid. I have no desire to play either game.
I think you're missing the point. I listed these two games since the graphics are obviously superior to anything on the PS2. But thanks for pointing out your ignorance. Why would you even buy a Cube if you only buy two games for it and have no desire to check out some of the greates games the console has to offer? Frankly, I d
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What I see on the GameCube list are mostly Mario games and crossplatform games that didn't make the list on the PS2. If I'm not mistaken, Resident Evil 4, Beyond Good and Evil, Resident Evil (Wow, twice for 1 system, they're really scraping the barrel), Soul Calibur 2, Killer 7, Timesplitters 2, Viewtiful Joe, and Super Monkey Bal
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Have you even actually played the Twin Snakes? It's not a rerelease, dude. It's a remake
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For this the ps2 dualshock controller is great. Both the xbox controllers and the game cube controllers have downright atrocious d pads and for many fighting games the dpad is the only way to get the response time you need (try doing a hadoken with the analog stick). Analog sticks are unnecessary and many time cumbersome for RPGs and turn based strategy g
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And yes, most Cube games don't look that great. That doesn't mean that the hardware wasn't technically better than the PS2's, though - it just means devs didn't optimize for graphics. Personally, I think Super Monkey Ball looks pretty go
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The dualshock is just an SNES contro
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Re:Hoping for the worst (Score:5, Interesting)
Compare with today, the Wii has decent (~X-Box Classic-alike, which aren't bad) graphics, a very slim form factor, high resilience to pain (hello, wii-mote! =D Meet LCD TV), one of the best overall first-parties behind it, an innovative, if a little mundane-looking controller, an installed user base, a broadening user base, and an extremely low price tag.
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DC vs. PS2 (Score:2)
I have no idea what the DC could have done had Sega not
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There's no logical connection between the position of the laser head and "burnout". The head is usually moved with a worm-gear like assembly and stress is entirely independent of position. Additio
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Sorry, we forgot to tell you, they're already part of the RIAA.
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In other words, it's not that more people wanted to buy a PS3 now than wanted to buy an X-Box 360 then.
It's that only slightly more people wanted to buy a PS3 now than the few that were able to buy a 360 then, while many more people were waiting on availability.
To suggest that this is an indicator of high demand for the PS3 is simply laughable.
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From January 2006 to February 2006 the Xbox 360 sales trailed off 36% (250K units down to 161k units). At the same point in its lifespan, Sony's PlayStation 3 experienced a drop-off of 48% (244K units down to 127K units)... Yet, despite trailing off by 25% more than its supply-constrained predecessor, the system does still cost $200 more."
Wow, talk about using statistics to mislead. What the article's saying (or rather, trying to hide) is that microsoft couldn't make 360s fast enough and that the ps3 can't even match its sales with units sitting on every shelf. As far as it costing $200 more, Sony loses more money on each sale, so absolute price means nothing. These companies are just trying to get the console into people's homes so that they can earn licensing fees off the games. Correct Summary: PS3 sales are below 360's in the same t