Wii's Longevity, Competition Questioned 277
Gamasutra reports that, despite the Wii's breakaway sales success, some analysts are skeptical of the Wii's staying power. Other analysts are, of course, pointing out that many of the 'hardcore' titles are expected later this year. "[They] not[ed] that 31% of Wii owners surveyed in March said they expected to play the Wii more often a year from now, compared to 21% of Xbox 360 owners." At the same time, Nintendo of America's George Harrison is questioning the staying power of Sony and Microsoft. According to Harrison, the two larger companies 'lack the DNA' to move with the industry, and keep with the the demand for casual, more family-friendly titles. "'They're really good at reaching a certain customer, and have a real difficulty understanding how we succeed with the customers that we have,' said the senior vice president of marketing and communications. With the sales of Wii and DS hardware crushing the competition in the US, Harrison is confident that Nintendo could take up to as much as 50 per cent of the market for this latest 'next-gen' cycle."
Talking just for my personal experience... (Score:5, Insightful)
I got bored of my Wii... I am still waiting for a good game, the problem with consoles like this with so few games is that sometimes it is impossible to get a game you like if your "tastes" are not standard... Also, I do not have the £40 to spend on some wannabe game without testing... how am I suppose to see if I like that game? considering that these days, online reviews are less worthless...
If I could actually get one.. (Score:5, Insightful)
Wii isn't going anywhere (Score:3, Insightful)
The Wii is here to stay and dominate. Especially once they start doing some cool DS to Wii integration. It's base is huge, is constantly growing and still a huge demand which outpaces the supply.
I have no interest in one but may be buying one once Animal Crossing 2 comes out (its like crack for my fiancé). Unless Nintendo comes out and says they kick puppies, love Nazis, and wipe their ass with every nations flag in the world they are not likely to drop the ball.
Re:Talking just for my personal experience... (Score:5, Insightful)
No News here move along (Score:3, Insightful)
The comments that Sony and Microsoft don't get the casual gamer market are laughable, Sixaxis was an attempt to steal the WiiMotes thunder. Buzz, Singstar, Guitar Hero and Eye Toy are all products on the PS2 for the casual gamer and they sell really well. What Sony/Microsoft lack are mini games, to think they won't see that they need is to expand their casual game base of course they don't know that (*cough* XboX360 has Guitar Hero *cough* Singstar downloads for PS3 *cough.)
parallel phrasing != interesting news (Score:3, Insightful)
C'mon, guys, all that we accomplish by publishing non-news like this is giving both parties exactly what they're looking for in free publicity. Adding together two non-stories doesn't create a story unless there's some really interesting counterpoint, and here all we have is a parallel phrase structure in "questions staying power".
I'm not trying to flame here or anything, I'm just saying that I think we could at least do a little better than this. Analysts and senior figures are always going to try and get themselves into headlines by saying controversial things; is it to much to ask that we don't actively facilitate this behavior?
Re:I wouldn't know (Score:2, Insightful)
And frankly, that we keep having threads about "The wii is dying" kinda makes me think that the others are just scared of the competition so they spread this fud around. The wii is a fine console, both capable of decent graphics and immersive gaming. The only really shitty thing about it [other than the small game library] is that they're impossible to find without entering a waiting list 2 months long.
Tom
Analysts are fortune tellers (Score:5, Insightful)
Funny how you don't see them making a statement of "Oops, sorry we had no clue what the hell we were talking about."
These analysts are as good at predicting the future as any random person off the street, they just get paid a lot more.
Re:I wouldn't know (Score:5, Insightful)
I just checked every time I walked through Wal-Mart or Target (once or twice a week) and after a couple of trips I picked one up. There were 3 or 4 in the case. I haven't looked as much since then, but I think anyone who takes the trouble to just look around a bit ought to be able to get one. Then again, maybe I just got really, really lucky.
In any case, I am not super-impressed with the titles so far. The Wii Sports game is a lot of fun (tried it out on my non-video gaming parents last weekend, they were hooked) and Super Paper Mario is also a lot of fun. But I'm still not extremely psyched about the titles coming out. (For comparison, I own a 360 as well and my favorite game so far is Call of Duty 2 and I have the legendary edition of Halo 3 (yes - the $125 one) on reserve).
I will say that there's one point to consider: Nintendo is in a much better position to come out with a new system before MS or Sony can. I think we're talking what 5 years? 7? until we see Xbox 720 and PS4. I would be shocked if Nintendo doesn't come out with their own hi-def capable system in 3 or 4.
Longevity from a different crowd (Score:5, Insightful)
Regardless of the AAA "hardcore" titles that come out later, the Wii has all the possibiilty of being the casual gamers ultimate game center.
Don't underestimate "casual" gamers... (Score:5, Insightful)
That in mind, I wanted a Wii from when I first saw it, looked to be a very fun system that would give a chance to be more "social".
I would casually look for one from time to time - then last month, one showed up at my local Walmart (very small store, not one of the new big ones), and I picked it up along with Zelda TP.
Immediately, I began to see the way the console changed the way people around me thought of video games... My wife is absolutely hooked on Wii sports, and the neighbors come by at least a couple nights a week for some tennis or bowling. Most interesting however, was the interest of my parents. Both nearly 60, they never liked video games in the past. Could never even get them to try one out. The Wii was different. They watched my wife and I play a game of tennis, and wanted to try for themselves. Now, every time they stop by there will be quite a few games of bowling played.
You shouldn't underestimate the attention span of the casual gamer, look how long SOL.EXE has been around.
Absurdity (Score:3, Insightful)
In this age, however, things are different. Want to play with your friends in one spot? You want a Wii. Want to play with friends across the country? Get an XBox360. Want, um, well, uh, a huge selection of very good titles? Get a PS2. Want to [hmm, I'm trying here!] almost successfully buy your estranged step children's love? Get them a PS3.
My point being that there is certainly room for more than one console--yes, maybe even three as sad as that would be for those of us who aren't quite as affluent. This is a different ballgame from the 90's. Stop the bickering & just enjoy the games.
Re:Wii isn't going anywhere (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:No News here move along (Score:3, Insightful)
Yeah, but early PS2 games looked like shit compared the Dreamcast, late PS2 games looked weak compared to the Xbox or Cube, and PS2 games were always blown away by the PC. The DS has laughable graphics compared to a PSP. The Wii and PS2 look seriously outdated right now compared to the 360 or PS3 yet are still selling very well. Graphics mean very little as far as popularity is concerned.
Re:No News here move along (Score:3, Insightful)
People's expectations increase, games are advertised on TV and some of them are looking extremely good. PS3 and Xbox360 have the potential to offer photorealistic looking games. If you think it won't matter why is there a Gameboy Advanced or Gameboy Advanced SP? Why is there DS? While the DS gives an interesting input, the advanced releases were merely updated forms of the Gameboy Colour in different packaging.
What I think will happen over the next three or four years the PS3/Xbox360 price will drop, as the gap between the Wii, PS3 and Xbox360 decreases the reason for a Wii decrease and the differences will as well. To believe that MS and PS3 won't heavily invest in more casual games (considering the trouncing their getting) is pointless. Once those consoles have better casual gamer expearence you start taking away its advantages, the biggest disadvantage will be its graphics.
An ancedote, The PSP has always been far more expensive when compared to the DS, in the recent bank holiday the place I work we had a PSP (+game) for £129.99 and a DS (+game) for £99.99 we sold five or six PSP's but no DS's. I think the Wii will feel the same effect is Sony and Microsoft can start competing with it on price.
As I said previously Kudo's to Nintendo for selling so many units
We still have to wait for the 3rd parties (Score:4, Insightful)
Nintendo has set its self up to be able to ration out what it considers strong releases, but has history has proven, what it considers to be strong is often not what traditional gamers will go for (Warioware, Mario Strikers Charged). And of course, its monster hits have not materialized yet (Metroid, Mario Galaxies, Smash Brothers Brawl).
On the flip side of it, the 3rd parties are rushing to step up. But they did so a bit too late, so we are getting alot of ports of PS2 and Xbox games. The 3rd parties are going to try their hand at the casual games, of course, but it may yet be a while before they start showing up with the kind of games that the traditional gamers want.
Demand has been quite strong though, so I have no doubts that we will see the kinds of games we want. The real question is whether the publishers will be able to make any money at it. There is a very real danger of all the more traditional games only showing up on the 360 or PS3.
There are a great many Wii's being sold, but until everyone figures out who the hell is buying them, there will be a lull. Are they being bought by Core gamers who also own a XBox 360, or Casual gamers who are only ever going to play Wii Sports? Either of those does not help the Wii in the long term.
END COMMUNICATION
Re:Talking just for my personal experience... (Score:5, Insightful)
I have to disagree. Why? The fun of Wii Sports/Wii Play is playing with friends/family. I had my hair cut this weekend, and the stylist was complaining about sore arms because she went to a friend's house "and they showed us their Wii and I played Tennis".
Online play might work for gamers, and maybe it would have been a nice addition, but I don't think it as "required". Look at your own example - you're still playing it because you're competing with someone you know. Grandma Pearl and Grandpa Fogie wouldn't care about "Wii Tennis" ladders online - these are people they don't know, but they do care about their war buddy Jim who comes over to play (and yes, I'm being serious - I have some older coworkers who aren't tech guys who were talking about playing Wii Sports and getting competitive about their scores).
Re:Analysts always forget one thing with systems (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:Talking just for my personal experience... (Score:5, Insightful)
The main problem I see is that, I must arrange a "party", "meeting" or whatever with whatever friends I've got here in the UK (I am originally from Mexico) in the not much *spare* time I've got (doing my PhD) in order to play those games, whereas if they had on-line play I would be able to get into my flat (after a 12 hour office day), log in and have fun playing 1 (or 2) games of Bowling/Tennis/etc... against other players.
Also, my rank in tennis is between 2100 and 2200 (dont remember the exact number now) and I can beat any of my friends very easly... I would really enjoy playing against other people in the world which are equally good.
So, for me, the lack of online playing on the Wii *is* very bad. They should have added online play on the VC games too, that way I would have bought SF2 or some other SNES game just to play with my girlfriend (who is in Mexico now)... as I said in another post, this is 2007 !!?? , the hardware is there, these are NINTENDO games... WTF happened?
Re:Talking just for my personal experience... (Score:5, Insightful)
I understand what you're getting at, but I feel just the opposite. I've been a Nintendo fan ever since my mind was blown as a kid when I played Super Mario Bros, Zelda, and Metroid for the first time. As Nintendo grew as a company and managed to somehow obscure themselves during the N64 and Gamecube era, I started realizing that while Sony and now Microsoft changed to conform to the flavor of the month, I was constantly surprised with the ingenuity and how much many of my favorite Nintendo games strayed from the norm. Looking at my game library...sure, it's full of RPG's (which, believe it or not, are fairly mainstream and have a decently large market over here these days...they're not the black sheep games they were during the NES/SNES era), obscure rhythm games, and just plain old genre breakers such as Katamari and the like on my PSX/PS2. But then I look at my Nintendo consoles and I have equally odd games...games such as Blast Corps, Donkey Kong Jungle Beat, Cubivore, Goemon (Mystical Ninja) games, Mischeif Makers, etc. In fact, I'd have to say the ratio of relatively obscure games (or financial flop but terrific game) vs. mainstream games is much higher on my Nintendo consoles than on my Sony systems.
It may be that you prefer the type of non-standard games that the Playstation invites vs. the type of obscure game that Nintendo consoles invite, but to say Nintendo consoles don't cater to non-standard tastes is slightly confusing as their consoles attract some of the most non-standard games I've ever seen.
Hmm, will Sony ultimately triumph? (Score:2, Insightful)
But I will predict, in 2009, when HDTV becomes mainstream (e.g. market share of more than 50 percent in US), that if Nintendo doesn't have a new console utilizing HDTV, then they should start worrying.
But for now, I'm just raking in the stock growth.
Re:I wouldn't know (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:Talking just for my personal experience... (Score:3, Insightful)
Now that the Wii looks like it will have a strong portion of the market, they'll be jumping on board and I expect to see a swell of games coming up for the Wii in the future when they are completed.
Re:Talking just for my personal experience... (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:Talking just for my personal experience... (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Talking just for my personal experience... (Score:2, Insightful)
I camped out overnight with a friend to grab a Wii (one for each of us) back in Feb., but I didn't open it right away. Instead we played with his. At first, I was incredibly impressed by Wii Sports. But after a few days (during which I also played Zelda, Rayman, and Monkey Ball), the novelty wore off fast. So I sold the unopened Wii to a friend of mine, and haven't regretted it since... particularly since my friend hasn't touched his in a long time.
On the other hand, I've had my 360 since last April, and I play it 4-5 times a week with regularity. And the funny thing is, it's not even like I have a lot of games. My roommates and I have just picked a game to play, and then continued to play it for a few months until the next big title comes out (GRAW, GoW, GHII, etc.). And as much as Nintendo might want to marginalize it, much of that comes from the fact that the 360 offers 1) a fantastic online service that allows us to play (co-op and competitively) online with our friends who are attending college all over the country, and 2) the HD resolution which allows us to play split screen without having to stare at grainy, tiny objects.
I mean, yes, the 360 has been out a long time now relative to the Wii, so it has some headway in the 'great-games' department, but I would argue that the real key to its longevity and replayability comes from the choices Microsoft made that Nintendo has otherwise decided to brush aside. What's also key here I think is the fact that Microsoft isn't ignoring any consumers like Nintendo seems to be doing: Live Arcade does provide a lot of fun, otherwise creative games that match up well with the market Nintendo wants (although admittedly with a more classic control scheme).
Of course, my friends and I belong to a different market than the demographics Nintendo is trying to target with the Wii, so much of this is likely irrelevant. But it is the reason why we won't likely be buying a Wii anytime soon.
Re:Talking just for my personal experience... (Score:3, Insightful)
If more people knew Spanish (especially Linux fanboys) - your Karma or moderation won't be that high.
Be an adult and change that sig.
From a Spanish speaking dude to another.
Casual games are 1 thing. Mindshare is another... (Score:4, Insightful)
Ironically no. XBLA has a MUCH better selection of games for casual gamers than Nintendo's VC, or main library. This is despite the VC already having more titles available. Nintendo needs more casual titles in the mix, and they simply aren't there yet, despite the console being MUCH more casual friendly than the PS3 or 360.
To say there isn't 'mental room' for more than 1 console, is rather demeaning, but I do agree that people tend to stick with what is 'familiar'. This is the Wii's #1 issue with the gaming press, Nintendo is challenging what they are confortable with. If the Wii becomes the dominant player in the market (like the PS2 did) then the market will shift in ways they don't like.
This I doubt. XBLA has Solitare, Bejeweled, Online Poker, Online Uno, Online Hearts... The issue isn't that they don't exist it's that it does not exist to them. It's like having the food they enjoy served at the wrong resteraunt where (for whatever reason) they simply won't go to eat.
To summarize my point, it doesn't matter if the PS360 adds a ton of casual games, and marginalizes the price difference AND even bolts on their own Wiimote like controller... These systems will not gain the Mindshare back from Nintendo. Nintendo is bringing people in with a fun, intuitive system that they are confortable to use. Once that mindset gets established brand loyalty strengthens and the other systems effectively don't exist.
People shop for a Wii, not a 'Video game system' much in the same way people shop for an iPod and not an 'MP3 player'.