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Wii's Longevity, Competition Questioned 277

Gamasutra reports that, despite the Wii's breakaway sales success, some analysts are skeptical of the Wii's staying power. Other analysts are, of course, pointing out that many of the 'hardcore' titles are expected later this year. "[They] not[ed] that 31% of Wii owners surveyed in March said they expected to play the Wii more often a year from now, compared to 21% of Xbox 360 owners." At the same time, Nintendo of America's George Harrison is questioning the staying power of Sony and Microsoft. According to Harrison, the two larger companies 'lack the DNA' to move with the industry, and keep with the the demand for casual, more family-friendly titles. "'They're really good at reaching a certain customer, and have a real difficulty understanding how we succeed with the customers that we have,' said the senior vice president of marketing and communications. With the sales of Wii and DS hardware crushing the competition in the US, Harrison is confident that Nintendo could take up to as much as 50 per cent of the market for this latest 'next-gen' cycle."
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Wii's Longevity, Competition Questioned

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  • by BosstonesOwn ( 794949 ) on Wednesday May 30, 2007 @10:18AM (#19321149)
    I am quite the opposite. I find myself playing the wii so often, every day I get home from work I play , my wife even likes to play with my wii. Well that sounded so sexual.

    Quite honestly between wiiplay and wiisports I spend at least an hour a day playing. With Super Mario Paper and Trauma Center it's time for sleep before i even get a chance to watch some TV.

    To me I play the wii more often then my 360 , I got bored of the constant fps and sports games constantly being released. They need to get me more into the game like the wii does, in order to get me back on a different system.

    Maybe the new GTA will do that , but my guess is I will play it for 5 days and beat it like I did with crackdown and never touch it again , then sell it back to Gamestop or on Ebay.
  • by Applekid ( 993327 ) on Wednesday May 30, 2007 @10:29AM (#19321319)
    Such group games like Wii Sports / Play really should have had internet play. Period. The only reason why I'm still playing Sports after three weeks is because my roommate and I have a rivalry going as far as getting gold medals in the trainings and trying to outdo each other in the fitness tests.

    I also picked up Warioware because I always liked the end-game endless modes and how they condition me to recognize what I have to do in a fraction of a second. If you don't like minigames, that's probably torture. ;)

    As I recall, no system has ever had a platform-exclusive RPG come out until many months after launch. (and I'm of the tribe where Zelda doesn't count as an RPG.) It's unfortunate that the unexpected success of the Wii has brought with it a whole bunch of shovelware from 3rd parties. Once the growing pains quit I think it'll do fine.

    And, yes, same argument could be made about the PS3 right now anyway.
  • by grapeape ( 137008 ) <mpope7 AT kc DOT rr DOT com> on Wednesday May 30, 2007 @10:31AM (#19321357) Homepage
    But what do Buzz, Singstar, Guitar Hero and Eye Toy have in common? They all have a gimic that requires accessories, most casual gamers wont buy them specifically for that reason. Casual gamers tend to pick up games that are less expensive and have cool covers. Thats where nintendo has the edge, their "gimic" is built in, nothing else to buy, no added expense for addons and no real learning curve.
  • by LWATCDR ( 28044 ) on Wednesday May 30, 2007 @11:00AM (#19321831) Homepage Journal
    I think you are missing it.
    The Wii's graphics are currently good enough. They will be good enough for a good number of years.
    The Wii's strengths are that it is fun and it is cheap. I have a feeling Mario Party is going to be at the top of the sales charts. I have my Wii hooked up to my HDTV and guess what? The graphics are just fine for me.
    I still have a sneaking feeling that there will be a WiiSP or a super by 2010 or 2011. It will play all the Wii and GC Games and support HD graphics. It will cost about $250 an probably have more CPU and GPU power than the 360 or PS3. Sure Microsoft and Sony will be working on their next gen by then but just like the Gameboy the Wii will just keep selling and selling because it is the right solution at the right price. I think Nintendo wants to keep the price of a console around $200. To do that it shorten the cycle but keep compatibility.

  • by bigman2003 ( 671309 ) on Wednesday May 30, 2007 @11:10AM (#19321967) Homepage
    I have had the exact opposite experience.

    When I first started playing the Wii, I thought, 'amazing...' Then I started to look for something deeper, more challenging. I didn't find it.

    My 360 is the console I expect to be playing far into the future, while the Wii will be relegated to being the console that non-gamers have fun with at parties.
  • Re:Absurdity (Score:3, Interesting)

    by dopplex ( 242543 ) on Wednesday May 30, 2007 @11:16AM (#19322033)
    The % of market share is actually quite relevant. It isn't about whether or not someone has multiple consoles - I suppose that's vaguely interesting, but it's not particularly relevant to the purpose of this sort of market share.

    Market share indicates the relative market sizes that can potentially be hit by a release on a given platform. Higher market share = more consoles in the hands of consumers = more consumers who can potentially buy your game.

    A more complex analysis can be done, certainly - but it should be obvious that the maximum sales potential a game has is limited by the sales of its platform. And that's where the market share comes in.

    If you're going to be publishing a game that costs $20 million to make, you need to get a return on that investment that exceeds the cost of raising that money in the first place. Now it isn't as simple as just releasing to the platform with the largest market - but those market sizes (and by proxy, market shares) are the starting point for figuring out this puzzle.

    In other words - yes, market share is very important.
  • by acvh ( 120205 ) <geek@m s c i g a r> on Wednesday May 30, 2007 @11:39AM (#19322449) Homepage
    Hmm. One of the things I find refreshing about the Wii is that many of its games do not "taste" standard. Elebits, Paper Mario, Monkey Ball, Sports are all games that, to me at least, tend to be less standard than the crop of FPS and racing games that dominate the other consoles.

    As for internet play, I truly do not care. Video games to me are about disconnecting from the "real world", I don't want to be social when I'm playing them.
  • by magnusrex1280 ( 1075361 ) on Wednesday May 30, 2007 @11:43AM (#19322495)
    On a side note, the success of the Wii wasn't really unexpected. Everything I read and everyone I've talked to who knew about it prior to the launch said it was going to blow the PS3 and the xbox 360 out of the water, and it has.
  • by MeanderingMind ( 884641 ) * on Wednesday May 30, 2007 @12:06PM (#19322873) Homepage Journal
    Point 1: Casual Games

    Microsoft and Sony showed lip service to casual games prior to launch. Assuming they started development of oodles of casual games 3 months post-Wii, we're still a good year or two away from seeing the fruits of that labor.

    The people whom these games are aimed at already know "Wii". These are the same people who, given a management position in charge of a database, will stick to the same obsolete technology because that's what they're familiar with. They aren't going to be dropping their Wiimotes for PS3 or Xbox controllers (even if they can tell you what an xbox is). There isn't mental room for more than one system at a time for many of these people, and right now they and everyone they know have "Wii" sitting there.

    To summarize this point, there aren't any games my uncle or aunt would want to play on a 360 or PS3, but my uncle did bruise his finger sinking a ball in WiiPlay because he exuberantly thrust his hand upwards into the ceiling fan.

    Point 2: Price

    Living in the US, I'm not well aware of the typical prices of the DS or PSP. Nor am I good at understanding the UK mindset or how much of a difference £30 makes (isn't that about $50?). I will agree that at analogous prices all systems and consoles stand on merit (and marketing).

    The question: How long will it take the 360 and the PS3 to "marginalize" the price difference? Sony would have to slash its prices by almost half to reach parity with the Wii. Given their reluctance to slash prices at all, and the typical industry rate for price cuts, and we may see "never" as a possibility for PS3 prices matching the Wii. The 360 Core was close to the Wii, but has supposedly been cancelled in favor of Microsoft's online download strategy. Neither of these companies are positioning themselves to close the price gap.

    It will probably happen someday, but the question is whether that day will come soon enough to effectively "beat" the Wii.
  • by mu22le ( 766735 ) on Wednesday May 30, 2007 @12:21PM (#19323151) Homepage Journal

    Also, I do not have the £40 to spend on some wannabe game without testing... how am I suppose to see if I like that game?

    This is the reason I download most of my games via some 'illegal' channel first, I play most of them for less than 1 hour.
    I usually end up buying the ones I really love sooner or later (but not always :).

    OTOH online demo system like the one built for PS3 and Xbox360 could make this kind of pirating pointless.

  • by bigman2003 ( 671309 ) on Thursday May 31, 2007 @01:45AM (#19333101) Homepage
    You keep trying to say that I feel that gamers don't like the Wii. I didn't say anything like that at all. All I did say was that NON gamers like the Wii.

    Your logic is poisoned by your obvious emotional ties to the issue.

"Mach was the greatest intellectual fraud in the last ten years." "What about X?" "I said `intellectual'." ;login, 9/1990