Academics Speak On 'Life After World Of Warcraft' 171
simoniker writes "Are MMO populations 'tribal', and if so, what's the next tribal shift after World of Warcraft? At Gamasutra, academics including MIT's Henry Jenkins and Ludium's Edward Castronova discuss what's next for the MMO market, based on their research and play patterns. Jenkins states that WoW is getting _too_ much analysis from researchers right now: 'WoW deserves attention because it has so captured the imagination of gamers over the past few years. That said, I don't think it is healthy for the field of games studies, which is still emerging, to be so fixated on a single game franchise — no matter what the franchise. A few years ago, it might have been The Sims or GTA, now it's WoW.'" For more on this topic MMOG industry veteran Gordon Walton spoke on this topic last week at GDC Austin, and notes from that event are also available at Gamasutra.
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> Before running into the office all by himself?
Hey, at least I got a red stapler.
World of WarCraft 2: The Attack of the RPG Clones (Score:3, Insightful)
I wouldn't be that sure (Score:5, Insightful)
When Origin invented the genre, they were literally the only player in town. They were so far ahead the other MMOs, that the others were just getting started trying to copy it. Even if you consider MUDs to be essentially the same genre, the difference between UO and your average text-based MUD, if nothing else in terms of number of players, was larger than between WoW and Anarchy Online nowadays.
Other people who arguably invented a genre, or made it mainstream, are still the Gods of Gaming in that genre. E.g., Id and FPS. You'd expect Origin to share that fate, wouldn't you?
You'd think nothing could possibly dethrone UO at that point, until Origin creates UO2, right? Well, we already know how that went.
Then came Everquest, and it was so popular it became synonim with MMOs. You didn't talk, say, about people losing their job and wife to MMOs, you instinctively spoke of them losing that to Everquest. It's also the game which caused the deluge of me-too MMOs. It was such a money-printing license, everyone wanted a piece of that market.
Worse yet, along came a long period of stagnation, and most new MMOs just managed to steal some of someone else's players, only to have them stolen by someone else in 6 months. It looked like there were a total of about 1 million MMO players total... and EQ owned slightly more than half of them.
Once you factored in their other games too, Sony _owned_ the MMO market.
Surely one would have thought nothing will challenge that until their own EQ2 came out, right? Well, wrong, actually. EQ2 peaked a lot lower than what EQ still had, never mind its former peak. It _still_ has less players than the old Everquest. (Not saying it's necessarily a bad game, as that's something highly subjective, just that subscription-wise it failed to be the block-buster everyone expected.)
Instead there came this WoW noone really expected that much of. What people wanted from Blizzard was Starcraft 2 or maybe Diablo 3, not a MMO. They hadn't proved that they know their elbow from their arse in the MMO arena yet. They had the Warcraft franchise and name recognition, but an unrelated franchise name only carries you so far: see TSO which flopped in spite of the The Sims franchise which had outsold all 3 Warcraft games _combined_.
Not only it handed Sony its arse at its own game, it managed something that noone else had managed in years: it actually enlarged the western MMO market. About 10 times.
So now we think the same all over again. "Man, nothing's going to displace WoW until they launch WoW2." I dunno, we've been wrong about that at least twice before. (Or more than twice if we're talking about sequel surpassing their original. AC2 bombed so badly that it was shut down, for example. Essentially that sequel moved the AC franchise from being the second most successful MMO to being nobody.)
Before anyone accuses me of wishing that WoW fails or anything, note that I'm not against any of the games I've mentioned here. I actually liked WoW, though nowadays I'm playing COH yet again. I can see why WoW was successful. In this highly subjective taste matter, they sure managed to give the larger market segment, the casual gamers and off-line Oblivion-type gamers, more of what they wanted in a game. They "deserve" their current position. I'm just saying that noone, Blizzard included, has a certificate of ownership of the market. They all "rent" the #1 spot for a while. They can fall like everyone else, eventually.
In fact, I'm sorta surprised that WoW hasn't fallen back yet. Again, I don't wish it or anything, but it's not like they have a patent on what made WoW successful. Everyone else is free to copy the elements that made it sell well. It's just that everyone else seems to be surprisingly slow to understand it. Oh, they've tried to copy bits and pieces of WoW, but they just can't seem to understand _what_ they copy. It's... a bit like watching a clock maker try to copy random individual cogs from a competitor's clock, without understanding what they copy or the larger scheme of the mechanism in which it must fit in.
But eventually it's bound to happen.
Re:I wouldn't be that sure (Score:5, Insightful)
In fact, I'm sorta surprised that WoW hasn't fallen back yet. Again, I don't wish it or anything, but it's not like they have a patent on what made WoW successful. Everyone else is free to copy the elements that made it sell well. It's just that everyone else seems to be surprisingly slow to understand it. Oh, they've tried to copy bits and pieces of WoW, but they just can't seem to understand _what_ they copy. It's... a bit like watching a clock maker try to copy random individual cogs from a competitor's clock, without understanding what they copy or the larger scheme of the mechanism in which it must fit in.
But eventually it's bound to happen.
The problem is that it's not just one thing that makes WoW successful. It's alot of things that Blizzard is doing right all at once. The key though, is that Blizzard, despite what you read on forums, does listen to it's players. The game as it stands now is vastly, vastly different from when even I signed up in 2005 -- and they're laregly positive changes.
Ontop off all of that listening, the technical quality of the software from Blizzard is continually top notch. They've folded in popular mods (Scrolling Combat Text, etc), and there were mentions about built-in VOIP, so voice chat won't be limited to guild runs.
Really, it's Blizzard as an organization that someone would have to copy to unseat WoW from the fantasy MMO genre, not any specific attribute of the game.
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Sorry, but this struck me as funny. I'm a level 64 pally, and in the last two days, I've pwned 2 70 'locks. The moment they start to fear, you bubble, Holy Shock, whack 'em a few times, do a Hammer of Justice and a judgement, and watch them cry all the way to the grave.
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Guild members of mine of mine went to Blizzcon and learned that pretty much the entire development team at Blizz plays horde locks and shammies.
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Well, I did. Twice. Not two at a time, mind you. But, yes, I solo'd a 'lock in Westfall just last night(the first was in a two man group attacking that town in Loch Modan. A 70 warrior and I against a warrior and lock. We kept killing them until they unflagged and left). And, no, I'm not set up for any sort of dps, being a Holy spec pally. All of my armor is +spell damage/healin
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Yes, and Alterac Valley for example is so lopsided that most Horde players simply sit in the cave because the Alliance has the advantage.
Furthermore, where is the WAR in Warcraft? Hi, remember the games of Warcraft? Remember the epic battles with various seige weapons and vehicles and the like? In WoW? Three years after release almost? Nope, sorry. AV is the closest we get and like I said, it's horrible.
You miss World PvP? They created world PvP "minigames".
Ref
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Sounds quite familiar. Any DAoC player can tell you a few things about that.
DAoC squeezed out an expansion called "Trials of Atlantis". There, you'd have to go into some area, kill some incredibly powerful guy for his possession, then farm scrolls (from other mobs, partly in very different areas), complete quests (which required a group, and for sure it was a group comprised of class
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A level and gear based MMO having a war? Well, I'd say it's actually possible, with a bit of thinking outside the box.
E.g., COH has a very elegant way of effectively lowering or raising someone's level to that of a team mate. Sure, you won't be a real level 49 if you're level one and someone raised you to 49 by making you their "sidekick". But it's possible to recalculate so
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However for most players the honor requirements are met long before the mark requirements, but the players shoot for honor anyway because they cannot do mathematics.
Or maybe because the players are at the level cap instead of in the 20-29 bracket? Early on, rewards cost fuck all honour and plenty of marks. Later on they cost exponentially more honour and few more marks. At 500 honour/game (AV weekend, your once-a-month epix-from-heaven event) that's still 36 winning games (at 20-30 min a pop) which will give you over 100 marks, all for one piece that costs 30 tokens. There's a reason that most people spend their marks on combat pots.
Agreed on the server transfers. G
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I play (or played anyway, haven't played in a couple weeks) WoW with at least 10 people I know in real life. Most of these people have numerous alts, many of them level 70. Many of them have more than one account, allowing them to dual-box and do things no solo player could do. And we're all in a guild with a bunch of other people who are really trying to make the server (Windrunner) work. Several of
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Interesting concept. Let's see if I can convince my ex-guildies. I mean, we've been to
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You know how it is in a raid... be good. Don't steal aggro. If you're a hunter... stand here, shoot, feign. The interesting result of our loony runs was that we all became much better at playing our characters and adapting to new situations. Whe
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This is key, IMO (Score:2)
This, I think, is key. Why do people play MMO's? To quote Sony, 'Live in your world, play in ours.' People are looking for an online world they can enjoy in their free time. So my thought is, why sho
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I remember them saying the same thing about Ever Quest, that the only thing that could displace it was Ever Quest 2. That didn't turn out to be too accurate. I think WOW will run it's course and then most people will move on.
Henry Jenkins? (Score:3, Funny)
Hennnnry JEEEEENKINS!
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Games with Endings (Score:4, Informative)
Practically every MMO out there is either a glorified chat room, or a grindfest-turned-second-career because it want's to be WoW without being WoW and all it succeeds in doing is becoming one more WoW or EQ clone and even the most ardent fanboys would have a hard time saying otherwise. The guys doing Warhammer Online claim that even WoW was largely a ripoff of DAoC, and popular though it was, DAoC was not a super smash hit like WoW.
There's nothing earth shattering about WoW except being in the right place at the right time. It's moronic to speculate on what the next big thing is because it's as likely to be random dumb luck as anything else.
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Incidentally, this is also why I don't drink, and why I can only buy enough food to last for three days at a time. Alcoholism runs in my family, and frankly, I don't have the self-control to prevent myself from becoming an alco
There Is A Reason.... (Score:5, Insightful)
As for upcoming MMORPG's, none of them will command the attention that WoW has. If Lord of the Rings Online couldn't make a dent in WoW, especially given the long, great history of the Tolkien Universe, what chance does any other MMORPG have?
Warhammer might have a chance to top some of the other MMORPG's like EQ, Eve, AO, etc... But that is only because they copied a lot of the aspects of WoW and present a very similar style of game and universe. Don't believe me, look at the goblins in both games. It's like looking at cousins.....
So yes, WoW deserves to be studied to understand how they could capture and maintain an audience many times over any of the previous MMORPG's.
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I'm not disagreeing about Warhammer's chances against WoW, but that statement made me think of this Penny Arcade:
http://www.penny-arcade.com/comic/2006/04/10
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I don't think it will take a lot of "study" to see that game success has nothing to do with weight of established lore behind it. Just look at the history of Star Trek games. If anything, having a license to an existing "Universe" is a millstone around a game's neck.
Lot
Academics aren't market researchers (Score:2)
Although the focus of whoever wrote the article is on the Next Big Thing, this isn't necessarily the top priority for scholars. The study of games is more about people than it is about games themselves. Here's Florence Chee from the article:
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The main reasons for its success are, I think, the quick pace of rewards and its friendliness to casual and occasional players. It is possible to have a very rewarding experience in WoW, easily play with your friends, and still "have a life." This isn't really the case for ot
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The offline XP bonus may have contributed somewhat to the success of WoW, but I sincerely doubt that most of the new vict.. er, new gamers took much advantage of it (other than during sleep/work), or that it contributed in any meaningful way to keeping up with their "more dedicated" friends.
Actually it IS good if you're playing more than one character concurrently. My gf is one of those many-alts people, so I end up having to have about 10 different lowbies scattered around various servers to keep her company. Rest XP lets me spend an hour questing/grinding here and there to keep my alts up with her characters, while still playing my main(s).
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I'm convinced the main reason WoW has taken off like it has is simply branding.
Hell no. I was Blizzard's bitch from my first game of Lost Vikings all the way through to WC3:TFT. I saw them making an MMO and thought "god that's a stupid idea, who'd want to make this awesome game into an everquest ripoff" and went back to my X-Hero-Siege and Enfos Team Survival.
:/ Their games las
Then a friend of mine finally convinced me to try WoW out, by actually buying me the game. With another friend we rolled a trio of undead, and two and a half years later... *sigh* I'm still Blizzard's bitch.
Florence Chee had the best viewpoint (Score:3, Interesting)
I foresee a day when WoW is replaced by games where you yourself perform the actions of your character, using Wii-mote and nunchuck, to hack slash and parry your way through the world, or use the Wii-mote as a wand.
When? Probably next gen. So, I would say look for 2009, when the successor to the Wii comes out.
[caveat - I went to SFU at one point so I'm biased
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Not really what I meant. Nintendo hasn't been building out games with online content on them, whereas MS and Sony (to a lesser extent) are heavily utilizing online content and features in many games.
So, if anyone's gonna do a console MMO other than FFXI, odds are it'll be Microsoft.
And my point about Nintendo's unwillingness to make original content stands. Even if they did do an MMO, I'm not sure that Mario Party MMORPG is going to take the gaming community by storm (sure hold interest for this guy, th
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I think you meant to say "Up until now, MMORPGs have not been casual games".
Things change.
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1. Latency. MMORPGs have to deal with ping times that would make a FPS (and, essentially, if you plan to do this, you need the ping times of FPS games) unplayable. MMORPGs rely heavily on the fact that most of the combat is automatized and your success in blocking, striking, parrying and casting doesn't depend o
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Reaction times would mean that you'd want to play on local servers however, as latency could cause negative reactions. But since most of the world has Net speeds 10-100 times faster than is commonly in use in the USA, this is not a problem, except perhaps in rural or under
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This is much more complicated
Re:Florence Chee or why Swordplay is Not Real (Score:2)
Think of the arc swing of a sword, or the block move of a shield.
As we translate the literal inputs from computing devices (the Wii-mote into the console), we only plot some of the translated arc points.
As my sword hits your shield, the game enhances it by your attributes (strength, agility (how much fine motor control do you really have), etc), your "level" (my level 22 paladin with 44 strength and 50 agility is going to hit really really hard from the viewpoint of your 21 strength 24 agility ma
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It's not that difficult to do.
But first you have to get the polygon vector jockeys to stop trying to drive game design with realistic rain splatter effects while the game POV camera sucks wind.
Half of true game design is understanding what works and how good it has to be.
Think of Lego Star Wars or other games with much lower res. People love them.
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Now, you don't see well in that area anymore, so maybe a blurring effect would have to be taken into account, too. And we need widescreen.
Kind of seems like a stupid statement (Score:4, Interesting)
Doesn't 'emerging' seem to suggest that there is going to be a rather narrow sample size, to begin with? And I don't really fault researchers focusing on WoW; I mean yes, they could grab whatever game is on the shelf, but you have no idea if it's going to be another WoW or if it's going to be Vangers (look it up). I would imagine that anyone in this 'emerging' field would want their results to be reasonably relevant, interesting, and applicable to as broad a field as possible.
Right now, there's really only one game that hits that mark, and that's WoW.
For those researchers who are looking for other interesting fields of study in this area, I would make some other suggestions.
Look at http://www.mmogchart.com/ [mmogchart.com]:
- The Matrix Online, Asheron's Call, Anarchy Online all have very interesting player number curves. Why?
- WW2OL has fewer subscribers than most of the 'big name' games and quite a few of the middling ones, yet it seems to be surviving where others are shutting down. Why?
- Runescape - real MMOG or webgame? Is the distinction important?
- These various games have a host of pay/play models, what's working, what isn't?
- MMOGs are in a way the descendants of online mass flight sims - Warbirds, etc. How do flight sim pay/play models compare? User numbers and retention?
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How fucking dumb can Sony and LucasArts be to completely ignore their existing fanbase and go ahead with not ONE but TWO game "redesigns" on Star Wars: Galaxies such that the end product was a completely new game? And thus, Star Wars: Galaxies - with a rabid fanbase* and new incoming fans - went from being in the top 3 MMORPGS to virtually non-existent. Which, I guess, actually answers the question I posed
*I mean, come the frack on... I knew a LOT of peo
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Basically, they saw World of Warcraft eating Star Wars: Galaxies' (and other Sony games) lunch _big_ time and they let GREED rule their game. Instead of refining existing gameplay and stressing the openness and versatility
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Even if we stick with MMOs I think a study of the people who have stuck with Star Wars Galaxies or Dark Age of Camelot would be interesting if only to find out why they still play those games (which I admit I have never played myself. I just know that they aren't all that popular i
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What comes after WoW (Score:2)
for just the briefest second... (Score:4, Funny)
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self-defined ending (Score:2)
I quit WoW after getting all the gladiator gear and being ranked in the top 10% of the first arena season. Basically, once you get to a certain point there is nothing left to accomplish. The only gear upgrades you can get after a certain point are marginal at best, and require a totally disproportionate amount of time to achieve.
The next big game will come up with a way to reduce the effect of gradual leveling, then very difficult end-game, then nothing left to accomplish. WoW will be easy to dethrone be
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My exacts thoughts on every MMORPG I have ever played.
Thats why the only games I play now are DOD:S (haven't for a couple months now), and Guitar Hero.
I will probably have to get the Orange box though... Portal looks amazing.
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"Chunky Change"?? (Score:2)
EC: Rapid chaotic change, it'll be going smooth for awhile, with periods of stability, and then suddenly you'll see periods of bulky but large changes.
You mean: punctuated equilibria [cotch.net]? Why invent a clunky neonym when you can just use a scientific term that already exists?
Why WOW succeeds (Score:2)
WoW wins for the same reason that the Wii wins, it has mass appeal (ie, it's not for Ren Faire tards.)
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LonelyHumanWarrior22: Hey there, pretty elf lady! Want to team up and slay some dragons?
ElfPriestess13: <texan-trucker-voice>howdy there, pard'ner! I was just thinkin' that there same thing mah self! wanna cy-barr?</texan-trucker-voice>
LonelyHumanWarrior22: OH GOD NO
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Though... mmm... beef... 'scuse me, lunch time!
Re:I wouldn't say... (Score:5, Insightful)
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What? The original Warcraft was ground breaking. There was nothing else like it when it first came out.
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There, fixed.
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C&C: 1995.
Warcraft: 1994.
You're probably thinking of Warcraft 2. But, as somebody else has said, other RTS were available before them. That is not to say that Warcraft wasn't revolutionary, though.
For a $1.5B annual gross, damn right! (Score:5, Insightful)
I was following a game a few months ago. Solid looking graphics and network engine, decent sounding game engine. It looked like it had some great potential and they had a multi-million dollar budget. But they had absolutely no knowledge about handling their community or managing a MMO, and the whole thing crashed and burned a horrible death. They hired a fan from the forums to become their community rep. Nothing like taking a kid with nothing more than a high school degree and put him in charge of distributing knowledge to packs of rabid fans.
Had they brought in people with experience in managing MMOs, and people with an understanding of the underlying factors, they would have likely done much better.
-Rick
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Actually, given the $120 million dollars WoW is pulling in each month, and the number of competitors out there trying to create the next great game ...
This is, I think, Blizzard's greatest challenge. They need to continue to innovate incrementally (the way the game did when it was introduced) without holding back because they have a lot of money to lose now. They absolutely will lose the market if they treat WoW like a cash cow and milk it until everyone leaves. Well, not everyone will leave. EverQuest is still out there, and I'm sure WoW will be for many years after it ceases to be popular.
But I really think that WoW could exist as a popular MMO functio
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Agreed about the grind time for heroics though - if you "do it right" (ie. if it's not your first character to 70) you might only have to run the level 70 instances 10 times each for your heroic keys, but that's still a total of 80 hours of play just to *unlock* your next piece of progression, assuming you get groups instantly and that none of them suck. More rea
Yeah, but... (Score:2)
True, but if that person exists today, they're probably not going to be willing to work for a professor's salary; they'll earn the money themselves. More to the point, somebody taking a few years of classes on the psychology of the online gamer is not going to be an expert in the field. That kind of knowledge an
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Re:"Games Studies"? Are you kidding me? (Score:4, Insightful)
First, game studies is not the same thing as a major program in videogame studies. Most of the academics involved in game studies have other home disciplines, whether anthropology, film studies, communications, computer science, sociology, comparative literature, economics, or what have you. Talking about the over-focus on one game or another is a top-level discussion among researchers across disciplines, not a question of what to be teaching undergraduates. Research fields are not the same as undergrad programs.
Second, I can imagine at some point there actually being an undergrad program in game studies. I know that there are minor programs. Like English or other degrees that don't seem to have immediate relevance, they are usually made far more relevant when mixed with a different graduate degree. An undergrad in game studies who then goes to law school might work on game-related policy, censorship issues, game-dev labor disputes, etc. Another one who then goes to business school might work on game-dev management issues, etc. Another might get an MFA or a CS MS and working on design or programming issues at a high level.
Games are significant. We're now seeing in adulthood people who grew up with them as their primary entertainment activity. Digital games structure thought, attention and activity differently than any other media before them. They merit study.
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Oh, and what the **** is with the penguin!?
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...
...real tits are better though. D:
The WoW killer (Score:2)
The single niggest complaint I usually hear about MMORPGs is that what your character does has no real effect on the game world, at best you can get player triggered events that lasts half and hour. If WoW2 or some other well made MMORPG incorporated lasting world changes based on player achievements (ie: a slow replacement of Horde flora and fauna with Alliance flora and fauna) then it would be set to b
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It stops being fun when the reply, after being slaughtered for two weeks straight, is just "Meh. What for, we're gonna lose again anyway."
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EQ2 and AC2 just divided their respective player bases. With the remaining communities being too small to sustain an MMO, players moved on to other MMOs. Its an easy choice for someone who has already quit the original MMO in the series to move to a wholly new franchise.
If Blizzard just keeps releasing expansion packs, then they will maintain their momentum. Its certainly not agood way to be innovative, but they want to keep those monthly sub
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Its a shame I already posted, so I can't mod this up. Blizzard's success is at least as much of an anomoly in the gaming industry as WoW's. Every game Blizz has released after their first has been a huge hit. Nobody else in the industry has a track record like that. Heck, nobody in the entertainment industr
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You could say the same thing bad about someone's favorite hobby, and I'm sure they would defend it just like people defend their own MMO -- b/c it is a hobby for many.
For others, a MMO is some sort of justification of their existance. "Oh, I killed the big bad mega-boss, I'm awesome, will you date me now?".
Even withing each MMO there are different levels of dedication and the same sort of 'tribes'.
I play FFXI, I don't deny it. In
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And I doubt anyone would question that WoW (and even more pinpointing the source of its huge success) makes a ton of money.
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Indeed. I think one things people forget is that GAMES MODEL WORLDS, either abstract or based on portions the real world. Games are SIMULATIONS, so saying we shouldn't study games is like saying we shouldn't investigate the natural world. Games and the real world have a lot in common, one is based on pure digital information, the other more solid 'physical' world.