Nintendo's Iwata Says Old Console Cycle Dead 245
1up is reporting on comments from Nintendo CEO Satoru Iwata, who has offered up the opinion that the four-year console cycle is a thing of the past. Instead, he says, companies should look to iterate on their hardware when an opportunity presents itself. "Launches should depend on when it can signify a major shift in entertainment, or when they have done everything possible with the current hardware. He also says that scheduling the successor to current hardware on a 4-year life cycle without paying attention to changes in the market 'appears to be too inflexible an approach to us.' This isn't to say that the company doesn't have eyes on the future. 'We need to forecast what the future will be like with the expected evolution of new technologies which are available at any given time, and try to identify the so-called 'sweet spot' of technology over the next few years,' he said."
Shown Already? (Score:5, Insightful)
Nintendo has had the habit of short console-lives if you start with the NES (Yes, consoles do predate it, but this is a simplified view.) It was released in 1983, overtaken by the Super Nintendo in 1990 (Lasting 7 years). Next was the N64 in 1996 (making the Super Nintendo last 6 years), next was the Gamecube in 2001 (N64 life span: 5 years). And finally the Wii in 2006 (Gcube life: 5 years).
However if you look at Sony, the original playstation was released in 1994, not overtaken by the PS2 untill 2000 (6 year life). And then by the PS3 in 2007 (7 year life).
Arguably, Sony has/had the majority market with the Playstation 2, I believe part of its popularity was the fact that it became so cheap, with no changes, that anybody could have one, and play games together. Something PC gaming lacks if you do not keep your pc up to date.
And you must also take into consideration, games can only get as realistic as real life. It's one thing to go from Super Mario Brothers on the NES to Crysis, but Crysis to real life won't be that big of a jump. And when graphics/physics/AI get as good as real life, there is no major drive for a new console for "next-gen" games, they won't be able to get any better (gameplay aside for this arguement). It is also taking us longer to increase realism, thus the life of consoles will be extended (if you can understand my ramblings).
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I don't know.. here's my take on his comments (Score:4, Interesting)
As you can see here [gamezero.com] I have been tracking the release cycles of all of the Nintendo platforms, and Nintendo has some pretty strong behavioral trends built up over the last 30 years.
Historically, a new console is release every 5 years and a new hand-held ever 10 years, with experimental platforms and incremental upgrades in-between (Virtual Boy, DS).
If the DS becomes the new "handheld" line as many expected but Nintendo has denied then it's in for a 10 year life cycle. Note that they still have not identified the DS as an upgrade/replacement for the GBA line which still commands some sales (GB Micro, etc...), so they're going to be careful not to cannibalize any remaining sales in that market.
Also, it's only a matter of time before Microsoft or Sony takes a direct attack on the Wii as literally being beefed up GameCube hardware in as a marketing attack since it has taken off so well. Unfortunately for them the Wii is strong with every other demographic of consumer, and if this does happen, I don't see it getting them far outside the gaming press.
You've got to step back and take a look at the big picture of what is said and the greater context of other statements and general behavior.
Granted Nintendo is slowly making changes structurally since Iwata took over as would be expected, but this is also a company that has been in business for over a hundred years, so they're internal culture and business strategies are clearly working for them to some degree.
Also, I think the Wii has yet to hit it's stride yet in development exploitation of it's features. Given that it's really lost a year of ground here, it could be that Nintendo is actively assessing the idea of letting the hardware dev cycle slip by a year or two with the Wii. Additionally, they're probably also trying to assess how to expand DS sales at the critical 6 year mark when normally they would be issuing a mid-level system improvement that doesn't effect platform compatibility (eg, GameBoy Color).
Oh well, I'm just rambling, it's all good.
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Re:Shown Already? (Score:4, Interesting)
An old PC is also very cheap (if not free), but you won't be able to play modern games on it, can still be fun for older games. There are still new games being made for the PS2 but they lack the graphical detail of PS3 titles.
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Intelligence is still a Hard Problem(tm) (Score:3, Insightful)
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I know that some designers have claimed that the increased power of the PS3 and 360 allow better AI, but I don't buy it. I think AI is written up to the level of barely adequate, and then all further resources (both hardware and human) are put towards graphics.
So, yes, I agree we're decades away
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PS3? (Score:2)
Because if it's the former, I have some news for you: the PS2 is still outselling the PS3.
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You're assuming that "realism" is a hard line that can never be crossed. But if that's the case, why do movie directors constantly spend money on special effects, instead of just filming stuff happening in real life?
You think so? I don't. I remember thinking exactly the same thing about Doom - whoa man, this is real proper 3D and all, how ca
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You wait; 14 years from now, you'll look back at Crysis and wonder how you ever thought it looked remotely realistic.
The first time I saw the Crysis DX10 ultra detail screenshot I thought it was a photo. It took a closer inspection and looking at the URL to realise what it was. If you honestly saw Doom and wondered how games could get more realistic, you have problems.Re: (Score:2, Insightful)
I will conjecture that the Nintendo's console release time frames were forced by competition.
The SNES release was fairly delayed (the NES was doing fine and SMB3 was hugely anticipated) and finally came out to trump the Genesis' success.
The N64 was late to the game, the PlayStation had a huge jump on it.
Again the Gamecube was late, being trumped by the PS2.
Finally the Wii was a year behind the 360 but finally matched Sony, in
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And that is a good thing???
As a game dev, we stay AWAY from realism,
- graphics wise because it is more important to have a unique style / look. When every game has the photorealistic look, it becomes much harder for your game to stand out.
- gameplay wise because for the most part it is NOT fun.
IF we are going for realism, we end up with simulators. While those can be fun, the majority of people do not find them "fun".
Shooters tend to push the visual realis
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this could mean one of two things for us... (Score:3, Interesting)
*ahem*
Translation 1: New hardware should be more frequet, milk them for all they are worth by making them buy more systems and software.
Translation 2: New hardware should be less frequent - it's coming out too often now, and it's really making the customers turn away from consoles.
I wonder which translation he is using?
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Now I say that as a person who bought a Wii for the gameplay and not the graphics, and I don't really have a problem with that. In a few years we'll get a deal similar with the Wii, updated graphics power for a lower cost than everyone else by using smaller and cheaper
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I think that he is mostly talking about not updating the DS. The DS would be "due" for the introduction of its successor next year for a 2009 launch. I don't see that happening.
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I read his statement as "we know that the Wii's graphics will look absolutely dated vs the 360's and PS3's in 2 years or so", and that they want to prepare everyone for releasing a new set of hardware earlier than everyone else, out of cycle.
In two years? It's already pretty dated. Compare any multi platform game. They just banked on enough people not caring or too new to video games to know better. Some of the graphics like RE4 or Zelda actually hurt my eyes on an HD set if I haven't slept enough. I hear Metroid does it better, but I'm still not certain if the Wii heralds the end to gaming as I enjoy it or will be the next mainstream platform.
So far the games are either retreats with "waggle" replacing "button mash", or "tedious mini games" c
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"Waggle" is just something you see in shovelware, and has nothing to do with the console.
I dunno. I just don't get all the complaints about the graphics; I was running my Wii on a 1080p set and it looked livable to me. As sharp as the PS3? No. But then, my playstation gaming these days consists of FF12. Graphics can go do anatomically improbable things; I want games that are fu
Nintendo logic is less predictable (Score:3, Interesting)
E.g., back when the Playstation had more games coming out per year than the N64 had over its whole life, Yamauchi was giving interviews saying that it's Sony who will go bankrupt by releasing that many games.
E.g., back when people complained that whole genres, e.g., RPGs, had gone missing from the N64 for years, Yamauchi gave an insulting interview in which he called RPG players, "depressed gamers who like to sit al
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The same applies with the curr
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That's part of my point though. Why spend $700 on a new PS3 when they're still releasing games on PS2 that look fairly decent? Alternatively, if the next-gen is just go
This sounds reasonable (Score:2, Insightful)
Unless a MMOG or competitive game(besides Halo3, FPS were meant for the mouse) comes out on console, I'll just stick with PC gaming.
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The Wii can too. That's when I knew Nintendo really was going to be a player in this generation, when I had to ship my Wii back for replacement under warranty.
(OK, it didn't actually die, but it did start showing a lot of graphical corruption. I can't say exactly what's wrong, but the warranty repair indicated that the "main board" had to be replaced.)
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The Wii can too. That's when I knew Nintendo really was going to be a player in this generation, when I had to ship my Wii back for replacement under warranty.
My first one had a defective drive, I opted for an exchange instead of a 3 week warranty replacement and lost $20 on the virtual console store stuff. Nintendo told me to fuck myself too when I inquired about a credit or refund (within 24h of the actual purchase). I will never buy anything from Wii shopping again. Xbox live is also a pain, I've been attempting to remove my Credit card from my friends Xbox after I bought him an expansion without him registering another card. No luck yet. I hear tech support
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Remember when you activated the Shop Channel and they made you read through the agreement and it said that, if you need to replace the unit, you must replace it through Nintendo if you want to keep your Wii Shop points and downloads? And they made you agree to that several times, and pointed it out several times?
Well - they meant it. If you wanted to keep your Wii Shop points and downloads, you needed to send the unit back to Nintendo. As a plus, they also copy all your settings and save data over to the
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I really can't fault Nintendo for your failure to read their terms and conditions. You did agree to them, since you can't use the Wii Shop channel without reading them and agreeing to them.
I declare I will hence forth not buy from the online shop due to the "go fuck yourself" more so then the actual $20. I did read it, I asked if an exception could be made as it was withing 24h, I could associated my credit card again and i had recipes of everything (the same mynintendo.com ID was associated with both). The Customer service person sent me a reply stating games were non transferable, with some condescending remarks like yours and a link back to the terms. In turn I vowed never to buy from the
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Based on a Google search I made when I first noticed the problem, it's occurred for quite a few people. Not enough for Nintendo to have a FAQ entry for it, but enough that they didn't even ask any questions when I requested a warranty replacement online.
The other big difference, of course, is that the Wii dies while under warranty, while the Xbox 360 waits until just after the warranty period to give up.
That and the Wii remains playable even with the graphical corruption. Although it did really mess up
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When the Nintendo DS first came out, there was a small number of units with dead pixels. Nintendo's advice was "Play the system and see if it bothers you. We want you to have an enjoyable gaming experience, s
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Re:This sounds reasonable (Score:5, Insightful)
PS3 was too expensive, and doesn't have a lot of games
PS2's launch library was crap initially too. The PS3's price is coming down.
Xbox360 dies on you
So did the PSX's laser, for those of us who remember. Later, the hardware got better.
I'm not the type that would like the Wiimote controller [my emphasis]
As in a human being?;) At least try it before you decide you don't like it. I didn't think I would like sashimi either, but it is yummy.
Now, if you'd wanted to MS's pay-for-multiplayer system or the lack of any coherent system on Wii/PS3, that's one thing. But you dislike two systems based on incidental qualities, won't even try the 3rd, and throw up your hands and say that's it?
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And for my anti-fanboy credit I own a 360 and Wii but no PS3.
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My PS2 on the other hand was a launch version and it won't play a LOT of DVD's that came out past, say, 2004 or 2005. It also has this tendancy to get disc read errors for no reason and so when I actually want to play a game I have to boot, and reboot, and reboot, and reboot, etc..
Mario == Mussolini (Score:2)
Xbox360 dies on you
So did the PSX's laser, for those of us who remember. Later, the hardware got better.
Not nearly to the same degree. It's like comparing the WWII wartime atrocities record of Japan vs Canada.
Dear, oh dear.
;-)
Dear, oh dear, oh dear. I know it's a change from stupid car analogies, but did you really just decide that this was the most appropriate example to use in this case?!
I was going to complain that you didn't even properly Godwin it, but I'm sure that if we follow your reasoning, then it can be implied that Shigeru Miyamoto is Adolf Hitler or something.
Now, Wii wait. But this winter, Wii brawl. (Score:2)
Here's your competitive console game: Super Smash Bros. Brawl for Wii uses the controller in a more or less traditional fashion. You can hold the Wii Remote sideways like you do for NES games on Virtual Console, or you can use Remote + Nunchuk, or you can use the GameCube pad or Classic Controller. It wouldn't work well on a typical PC running Windows because most PCs running Windows aren't connected to monitors large enough to fit four people around them.
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Moore's Law? (Score:2)
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Plus, that's part of the point. Do we really need a console that's twice as fast for the same cost but doesn't bring anything new to the table? Wouldn't it be better to say, wait 6 years and get a console that's marginally faster than the one that would've come out at the 4 year mark but adds a *t
Another aspect is... (Score:3, Insightful)
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Let's hope the traditional console cycle is dead (Score:5, Interesting)
I think that the most important reason why the old console cycle needs to die is to let programmers/software catch up with the hardware. Sure, you put enough people on a project and you can crank out a PS3 game in enough time; however, if the game is a flop, it could be a disaster for the studio. On the other hand a developer could put out a game on a console that takes less time and money to develop for (such as the Wii and handhelds) and there's not as much risk involved with taking chances. In Nintendo case they're actually encouraging studios to start and take chances. Years down the road when the road has been paved for super high end graphic consoles and software has caught up to the point where it's affordable to actually make the jump.
After all, the real race over the years, weather people want to own up to it or not, has been a software race rather than a hardware race. It hasn't so much been about what the hardware so much as what developers can squeeze out of it.
Nintendo, imho, is basically telling developers "Look, you know all those development tools you spent years tweaking for the Gamecube? Well, here's your chance to actually use all of them. BTW, here's our tools while you're at it." It's feasible that the programming team could actually create the frame of the game while the actual details are still being developed. It's definitely a shift in the industry that we haven't seen since the days of 2d gaming. It's the reason why portable gaming has been so healthy over the years. I'm personally excited about the doors this might open for the industry and I definitely hope that Nintendo in fact does ignore the console cycle until consumers demand they need more power.
Re:Let's hope the traditional console cycle is dea (Score:2)
I think that the most important reason why the old console cycle needs to die is to let programmers/software catch up with the hardware.
I agree. I remember the first time I fired up Final Fantasy XII. I was blown away by how good it looked compared to the other PS2 games I've played. It wasn't until the end of the PS2's life cycle that developers were finally able to use the hardware to its fullest.
But then again, it doesn't say much for the PS2 as a development platform if it took developers that long to figure out how to get the most from it.
what do these have in common? (Score:5, Insightful)
People arent adopting as fast as tech is pumping out. People dont like to change for change sake. As the popular saying goes, if it ain't broke, why fix it?
?Translation? Watch the HDTV Transition (Score:3, Insightful)
Sony and Microsoft leaped ahead, probably ahead of the game, on the output resolution. Its too good (read "costs too much") for what is currently out there.
Nintendo did not. They went cheap and new UI, which has proven to be a win.
But I'd bet that Nintendo really is eyeing the HDTV transition for "Wii 2.0". They are probably taking a page from Apple and keeping it as stealthy as possible (why hurt sales on the Wii 1.0?), and waiting until 42" HDTVs become common (probably after this christmas) before releasing a performance and graphics bump designed to take advantage of the new output resolution.
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That is part of it, part is availability of content.
If somebody dropped a 1080p TV on my doorstep with a bow on it I'd only be using it to watch SD content. To get HD programming would require more than doubling my cable bill and losing the ability to use my current MythTV setup. With a really over the top outdoor antenna I could pick up ONE signal reliably and perhaps three at night. Or I could go with DirectTV's HD offering or
Wii 2 (Score:2)
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This discussion needs reference to the 32X (Score:3, Insightful)
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makes sense for handhelds (Score:2)
Well done for completely missing the point (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Well done for completely missing the point (Score:4, Insightful)
Seriously dude, why are you commenting if all you have to tell us about is what you are imagining Iwata is thinking about when he said some stuff you haven't actually read?
Why not just shut the fuck up?
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Faster CPU? Drop in a 750 FX in place of the 750 CX (or some of those Freescale knockoffs). Better graphics? I'm sure a pin-compatible version of a better GPU can be made, or simply add a driver shim to the firmware and put in a completely different GPU. Needs more on-board flash memory? Add some. None of these
Re:So in other words... (Score:4, Insightful)
In other words, either the additional capability goes to waste, or the market is fragmented around those with the upgraded version and not. This is quite possibly the worst idea that Nintendo could possibly have. There is a reason that nobody does 'SegaCD' crap anymore.
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If you want a fully expandable, upgradable gaming platform one already exists- the PC.
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Re:So in other words... (Score:4, Insightful)
And while is may not be such a good idea for Nintendo right now, the situation will probably be very different two years from now. Certainly when the HD-DVD/Blu-ray thing gets settled, Nintendo will have incentive to release a compatible, HD-capable Wii. But even now, Nintendo is preparing to release a new revision of the Wii that supports DVD playback. Would anybody be surprised if it included a faster GPU with better decoding features? Or if they added 802.11n support next year?
The days are long gone where games magically break if the clock speed of the CPU is too fast or too slow. Nobody in their right mind complains that their quad-core gaming rig is wasted on Half-life 2 just because the engine also runs on the original Xbox.
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I noticed an intriguing possibility over a year ago when I pointed out to my gamer friends that the Wii was full of drop-in components. They won't release a new console. They'll "speed-bump" the Wii.
Faster CPU? Drop in a 750 FX in place of the 750 CX (or some of those Freescale knockoffs). Better graphics? I'm sure a pin-compatible version of a better GPU can be made, or simply add a driver shim to the firmware and put in a completely different GPU. Needs more on-board flash memory? Add some. None of these are things that require a radical redesign of the entire system to accomodate. In fact, they've already done it once, going from Gamecube to Wii. The worst thing they'd have to deal with is a slight redrawing of the circuit board for a new GPU pinout or making space in the Wii form-factor for a larger heatsink. If they're careful, neither of those will be necessary.
Thats not a good idea. Changing core specs serve only to fragment your audience. Changing other things is great. A SP is a sexier GBA, a DS is something different. Perhaps some over clocking to stabilize from rates but it may result in a break in compatibility and having new games being unable to run on old systems.
A better idea is do their Model 1.0 is fun but ugly, model 2.0 is sexy but otherwise the same.
Re:So in other words... (Score:4, Insightful)
There is no "admitting". He is just repeating what he has said all along: that it makes no sense to deck out a game console with HD and all kinds of gadgets when the end result costs $600. That, and that Nintendo cannot (and actually has no intention to) subsidize such a system in the way that Microsoft (and Sony to a smaller extent) can and is willing to do.
That is, Nintendo will release a next-generation system when the technological advances allow a significant jump in gameplay improvement at a ca. $249 price point. Makes sense to me.
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Why have a long development cycle followed by a high introductory price when you can have a reasonable price and a constant evolution?
The Wii is plenty powerful enough right now. Most people don't have 1080P HDTVs or even HDTVs. The games on Wii are fun and selling well. The Wii is selling well.
The Wii is 100% compatible with the GC so you can play all your GC games on the Wii.
So if in two or three years we have the WiiHD for $225 will I feel ripped off? Not really sin
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As for your xbox/ps3 list- I see one game thats a rental. The rest would likely sit unopened if you gave them to me. Fighters- been there, done that, never need to play one again. Should-have-stopped-at-6 Fantasy 13. Yet another racing
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Certainly BR is a non-issue for most; I suspect many that would like HD movies are waiting until there's a clear winner. I really don't care if the PS3 can play BR if HD-DVD comes out on top.
The PS3 is just all around too iffy at the moment to even consider touching it.
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Besides, you act as if games are only going to be fun if they can be viewed in HD. I think people have spoken, and they'd rather have a standard-D console than an HD one. The Wiis graphics are good enough, what I really want is games that are fun.
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Same expereince (Score:2)
I had the same thing happen with my SO. After a while of watching HD programs, we were watching an SD show and she asked "why is this so blurry".
It's not that long before a large majority of the population has HD sets, especially the percentage of the population that buys video games and movie
Blurry = bad scaling (Score:2)
The blurry-ness is due to your HD not being able to up-scale images nicely - its nothing to do with SD.
I bet you wish now you had got a better set, instead of jumping on the me-too band wagon you stupid toss-wad.
Uh, yeah... Everybody knows that the good HD sets can on-the-fly fabricate data not present in the original signal to adjust for the native screen resolution. 480i properly scaled to 720p is every bit as good as an HDTV signal. (I don't even know why they bother manufacturing high-resolution video cameras... Just to make people feel bad about owning "legacy" televisions, I bet...) If you scale a low-resolution image up to a higher resolution and get something blurry, then your scaling algorithm is def
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If you've seen standard TV signals on an HDTV you'll know this is also how they fill a 16x9 frame with a 4x3 image... The TV recognizes that there's not enough picture to fill the frame, and so it extrapolates using the 4x3 image as source data to determine what the pixel values for the rest of the frame ought to be... Basically all you have to do is take a Fourier transform of your source pixel row, and then inverse-Fourier it to generate the missing data for that row...
Are you kidding me? That doesn't work with real-world objects. What most sets do is letterbox things. Most people just won't notice the letterbox, it mentally disappears after a while.
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There lies your problem; owning the HD set. Now that you have it, you think it worthwhile. It may even be that it really is a big step up. However, given that my sets now are all working perfectly, I'm reluctant to simply throw them away because HD is now here. Why throw away something that works very well for me? Its not like upgrading a computer, where I can make use of the older parts as a testing station or a low power serv
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I like it (because I want one). But they are a long way from universal and a lot of consoles are used on a households second television which is even more unlikely to be HD.
The PS3's bid to be a "media center" is necessary because they need it to be in the loungeroom to find an HD tv, however a lot of traditional console use is in bedrooms, studys etc where HD won't be found in any significant volum
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2) TV's have a long life span, 10-15 years is very common. Stores aren't selling Analog televisions doesn't change the fact that there are enormous numbers of them already out there that will continue to exist and be used for a long time yet.
Indeed the analog switch off may mean there are more such TV's used with consoles.
People who do decide to buy a better digital TV aren't necessarily going to just throw away their old one, they
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No they are not, because a vast number of people will choose merely to get a digital receiver for use with their analogue TV when the analogue switch off happens.
"Todays market" for televisions is not the same as "todays market" for consoles. There is a big lag between HDTV's being available (even favoured) and them being a dominant proportion of deployed TVs.
A recent Nielsen study puts ~30% of US households as having an HDTV. T
kkrieger (Score:2)
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What is the point of a 96k game when the RAM foot print is nearing 300 MB?
The Xbox 360 console's RAM is well over 300 MB.
What about the cycles used to generate textures on the fly instead of being used for AI and physics?
Generate textures during the opening cut scene and cache them to the hard disk if you must. The point is that they do not have to take up space on the optical disc. And I was using .kkrieger as an example of one extreme, implying the existence of a happy medium between the procedural extreme of .kkrieger and the "MegaTexture" extreme of id Tech 4.1.
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Offtopic here, but I can't help thinking that the Wii+1 should be known as the counter-revolution, at least while it's in development
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And I'm betting they still won't be happy at what they find. Personally I think the Wii will have more than 2 or 3 more years, I think they'll come in when HD really is widespread and HD capable hardware costs closer to commodity levels.
The next Nintendo console will certainly be interesting though, they will certainly have to pull something out of the hat to gain traction against already entrenched 360s and PS3.
Yes they do (Score:3, Informative)
Games *do* need BluRay now. That's the primary reason I feel the PS3 has the long-term edge.
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