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MMORPG Used to Model Real World Disease

Posted by Zonk on Tue Aug 21, 2007 09:32 AM
from the zul-gurub-still-seeing-some-use-after-bc dept.
Oxygen99 writes "The Times is reporting on a paper by researchers in the US who argue that the spread of 'corrupted blood' in World of Warcraft might provide clues to the way a real world population would cope with the prospect of a global pandemic. In the study, to be published in The Lancet next month, Professor Lofgren of Rutgers University and Professor Fefferman of Tufts University, suggest that: 'If, God forbid, a disease broke out in London, you could see what would happen if people were told immediately of the risk. Would there be panic and chaos, or would it allow them to psychologically accept the danger and act accordingly? What would happen if we made people feel too reassured? These are all things that have a great impact on the number of people who would be affected. They are also things we just don't know, so [virtual games] could be of great value in helping us understand what their true emotional responses would be.'"
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[+] World of Warcraft is Infectious 91 comments
ringbarer writes "News is coming in that the lands of Azeroth have become infected with a deadly plague which the developers never intended to spread. Originating from the new Zul'Gurub instance, the plague has spread from player to player via town NPCs. Entire cities are being wiped out, yet players are finding this surprise content entertaining!" From the article: " Some servers have gotten so bad that you can't go into the major cities without getting the plague (and anyone less than like level 50 nearly immediately die). GM's even tried quarantining players in certain areas, but the players kept escaping the quarantine and infect other players." Commentary on Terra Nova.
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  • I remember that (Score:4, Interesting)

    by Pojut (1027544) on Tuesday August 21 2007, @09:36AM (#20304395) Homepage
    I remember when that shit was going on in WoW...it was insane people were dropping like flies. Very much like the scene in 28 weeks later when everyone is locked in a room and they are slowly overtaken by infection.

    You could literally stand on top of the bank in Org and watch the disease spread. It was actually a bit terrifying.
    • Except they lost nothing of value, as deaths in WoW have little impact.

      Now, a virus infecting your flight control systems in EVE, _that_ would be terrifying.
      • Re:I remember that (Score:4, Insightful)

        by Pojut (1027544) on Tuesday August 21 2007, @09:53AM (#20304645) Homepage
        Yeah, but you also have to look at the demographic that WoW was/is trying to reach compared to who Eve is trying to reach. WoW was designed so that yes, you have to put in many MANY hours to get to the endgame, but you still feel like you accomplished SOMETHING even if you logged in for only an hour.

        Eve, as amazing of a game as it is (and it really is an amazing game) requires at least a few hours per sitting to really feel worth it (similar to everquest) It's designed with a different type of gamer in mind (whereas WoW serves to try to suck in both gamers and non-gamers alike, hence it's "dumbed-down" gameplay)
        • It depends very much on your style of play.

          Eve was the first MMORPG I found that had the kind of "pick up and play" where you could literally jump into some action for a few minutes, accomplish something, and be done with it. Doing a mission doesn't take more than an hour usually; camping a gate, mining for ore, shooting at NPCs can fill half an hour; checking market listings or changing skill training (which is done realtime, no grinding necessary to advance) can be done in minutes.

          There are large scale f
          • I'd say that the two minutes it takes to set a skill to train up while you go off to watch a movie

            Beh, this was one of the major problems I had with Star Wars Galaxies...set up a macro to mine shit and just walk away...blech.

            I don't like the idea of a game that I can play without actually being there to play it. I understand that with games that have that mechanism built-in, it's almost required in order to really get a good foothold on things...but still, I really don't like that. In my mind, it kinda de

            • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

              disclaimer: i've played EVE on and off for years

              In my mind, *the* most important aspect of EVE's skill training system is that it pretty much destroys the ability of a 13 year old with no responsibilities in real life to powerlevel to the top of the game in a few days.

              Make no mistake, macroing your way to resource acquisition ("macro mining" for example) is discouraged (and not-infrequently those engaged in the practice can be harassed and profited *from* -- by stealing their ill-gotten gains, for example

            • Except that the game grinds experience for you, automagically, no hax needed.

              Money is a different story. That you still have to *earn*
          • which is done realtime, no grinding necessary to advance

            Eve has the worst grinding of any MMO I have tried to date. I had to grind asteroids and missions for a month before I could even afford anything interesting. Then I went and lost my new-fangled cruiser the very next week to some griefer. At least you don't lose levels or gear in WoW...

            But I guess that's what makes Eve unique. You can always be certain that your victim in PvP just lost weeks/months of progress, and I'm sure that appeals to hardcore ga

      • EvE would actually be a better simulation of the world compared to WoW.

        First: Larger world. WoW is, at best, the equivalent of Japan in terms of size. Given the "islandy" nature of either, I think the comparison fits.

        Second: No instant travel. Ok, jumpclones kinda make that possible now, but it's still a far call from the near instant travel and very short traveling distances in WoW. How many people do NOT have IF as their recall point?

        But I'd really, really dread something like that in EvE. I can see peopl
          • Ok, ok... Sorry, I only played for like 3 months before it got boring. But I'm sure the Hordies have something like IF, too.
    • Re:I remember that (Score:5, Interesting)

      by Puff of Logic (895805) on Tuesday August 21 2007, @09:51AM (#20304601)

      You could literally stand on top of the bank in Org and watch the disease spread. It was actually a bit terrifying.
      Indeed. It occurs to me that perhaps Blizzard might take what was essentially an oversight and turn it into a world event. A properly designed disease, spread at a reasonable rate and requiring a cure that would confer immunity after that, might be an interesting community event. A slow, constant loss of hp when online might result in healers becoming almost doctors while other classes searched for a cure. Bandages, alchemy, herbs, and so on could have a role to play. Obviously some deeper thought would be required on this, but I thought it an interesting idea.

      cheers.
      • Hah (Score:3, Interesting)

        Your idea is rejected because it's too cool. Please try again with something that would require more grinding.

        Seriously, I've always wanted more stuff like this. I mean, 99% of the content never changes. Would it be too much to have more events that require significant numbers of players to actually dedicate their time to fixing the problem, pushing back the enemy, etc? Even the seasonal content in WoW is pretty static, and you don't have to participate.
        • Your idea is rejected because it's too cool. Please try again with something that would require more grinding.
          Fair enough. Hmmm...okay, the cure will only be effective on those who have exalted status with the goblin HMO Booty Bay?
      • Re:I remember that (Score:4, Interesting)

        by mewsenews (251487) on Tuesday August 21 2007, @12:25PM (#20307133) Homepage
        I love this idea if it could be worked out. My first character was a priest because I wanted to be one of the characters restoring order to the world. There were only two quests I recall that really gave the impression you were helping put things back together:

        1) Priest epic staff quest -- involves healing dozens of NPCs while defending them from harm
        2) First Aid artisan quest -- involves performing triage on injured NPCs

        It seems like 99% of the other quests in the game involve destroying things.
      • Re: (Score:2, Informative)

        Yea that is a pretty sweet idea, Everquest 2 had a world event like this in summer of 2005, if i remember correctly. There was a very long drawn out quest that culminated with a raid which when finished provided a permanent cure. I stayed out of the city for a week or more avoiding the plague until some punk ran by on his horse in Zek and infected me. All the stuff that wow players wish blizzard would do SOE is doing with Eq2.
    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      Yea, it was pretty cool. I don't know how it would ever model anything because it's got a few flaws over a real world model.

      First, there is no incubation period. There is no "unwitting carrier". If you have it, you know it, and you spread it either intentionally, or because you're an idiot. I carried it a few times for giggles (I nuked Org once by zerging the AH while infected), but for the most part, if I got it, I'd go hang out in a corner 'till I died.

      Second, the transportation methods are completely unr
      • "a substantial subset of the population actually wants to get the disease, so people are actively seeking it out for themselves so they can spread it."

        Such people are called bug chasers.

        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bug_chaser [wikipedia.org]
        • ...I'm getting overwhelming images of William S. Burroughs in my head...
        • Meh. That's more of an external expression of self-loathing.

          This was a lot more like ebola than HIV, and you don't see anyone chasing ebola.

          The best real-world analog would be terrorists who intentionally infect themselves with communicable diseases and then rushing to spread them as a kind of bioterrorism...The problem is, either the disease isn't communicable enough to be spread effectively (e.g. HIV), the disease isn't bad enough to be worth spreading (e.g the regular human Flu), or the disease is so bad
      • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

        Unrealistic transportation methods? A good part of the populated North America could be infected in less than a day by a single patient zero carrier, Europe is the same way. And infectious diseases chain from one person to another, you wouldn't even have to leave the airport, just let other people from the airport fly away and infect others for you. In less than a week a single patient zero could easily infect the world, yes it isn't the same as World of Warcraft, but people don't die in minutes from infect
      • Just like in real life!
      • Re: (Score:3, Funny)

        I nuked Org once by zerging the AH while infected

        You get it in IF, you hearth to SW, and poof, you've infected two population centers in a matter of moments

        Good grief, is this English? I've always avoided MMORPGs, at this point I think I'd need a translator to get started.
        • I know this was meant to be funny, but I'll respond because I'm a dork

          IF = Ironforge, the dwarven capital

          SW = Stormwind, the human capital

          "to hearth" is slang for "to use a hearthstone" (not the bottom of a fireplace) - an item everybody has that is used to teleport from wherever they are in the world to wherever they decide to call home. Most people bind themselves to one of the two capitals.

  • Activism! (Score:4, Funny)

    by fulgan (116418) on Tuesday August 21 2007, @09:37AM (#20304405)
    Stop medical experiment on night elves!
  • by thc69 (98798) on Tuesday August 21 2007, @09:41AM (#20304469) Homepage Journal
    MMORPG IS a real world disease.
  • by tangent3 (449222) on Tuesday August 21 2007, @09:43AM (#20304487)
    I've seen people deliberately trying to spread the disease in the game. In order to obtain the disease, you need to meet the final boss of the Zul'gurub raid instance, named Hakkar. When Hakkar infects you with the disease, you will then have to hearth back to Orgrimmar or Ironforge to spread the disease before it kills you. Would people do this in real life?

    Or can we expect to see suicidal terrorists deliberately infecting themselves and moving into a population...
    • The disease in question was rather hurriedly made impossible to spread a week or so after this happened. In other words, TWO YEARS AGO.
    • Some people believe it isn't fair they contract certain diseases or viruses, and are willing to continue their lifestyle regardless of what it may cause ("It wasn't fair, so I'll just ignore it and keep going"). While this can pertain to HSV or HIV, I don't think it would be possible to relate it to this. If you were dying very quickly would you really urge to run out and infect a bunch of people? Not really.

      Your 'terrorist' idea though, that is one scary idea. While I think the term has been beaten to deat
      • Your 'terrorist' idea though, that is one scary idea. While I think the term has been beaten to death by Bush and the media, that would definitely cause it. Lets hope
        they realize in the end it would still spread to their people, too. Hopefully they have some sense of survival and self-preservation.

        I don't think this is terribly likely, as if the disease was bad enough to cause an epidemic, it would have had already, even without the terrorists. An epidemic probably needs the right disease: something with th

    • It involved a group of homo-sexuals who would drug other homo-sexuals at gay parties and then inject them with blood, apparently blood known to be contaminated with the aids virus.

      Neither is it first time but it was one of the most direct (blood injection is far sure then unprotected sex), deliberate and massive. But it is nothing new.

      Aids has also been used as a threat before as in, "if you (don't) do X I will bite/scratch you".

      Offcourse aids is nothing like the WoW disease, but the idea of people deli

    • In the real world, back several hundred year during the time of the Plague, the first response of villagers who encountered someone who had the plague (an infected messsenger who arrived on the edge of the village), was to gather everyone together in the market place, inform them, then send out more villagers to warn their neighbours. Depending on the mode of transport (walking, horse, cart, coach), this would enable the infection to spread (fleas on animals or clothes).
    • As with most adolescent games, WoW is about dominance and control (along with a fair share of hoarding wealth...to show dominance and control). It's a nice gig to do research showing patterns that don't exist for people more ignorant than the average teenager. Must be a government funded study. Next in the news, the MMORPG diseases never kill anyone for very long making it a kind of minigame to infect as many people as possible. Didn't even need a grant for me to know that, just common sense.
  • But honey, (Score:3, Funny)

    by kcurtis (311610) on Tuesday August 21 2007, @09:58AM (#20304725)
    I'm not just raiding. I'm helping prevent the spread of infectious diseases. Do you really want our children to die of the plague?
  • by Stevecrox (962208) on Tuesday August 21 2007, @09:58AM (#20304741) Journal
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/6951918.stm [bbc.co.uk]

    The opinion seems to be while its just a video game it might provide a little insight into how people react to these situations which could be usefull for future modeling.
  • The Times is reporting on a paper by researchers in the US who argue that the spread of 'corrupted blood' in World of Warcraft might provide clues to the way a real world population would cope with the prospect of a global pandemic. In the study, to be published in The Lancet next month, Professor Lofgren of Rutgers University and Professor Fefferman of Tufts University, suggest that: 'If, God forbid, a disease broke out in London, you could see what would happen if people were told immediately of the risk.

      • If you found out about it, you admitted you would avoid it by stashing your character which could be equated to avoiding the area where the disease is. Isn't that a behavior that could relate to a real life outbreak?

        Not really. An in-game pandemic's "location" could be "anywhere in the game", so I wouldn't play the game until it blew over. In real life, a pandemic's "location" would also be "anywhere in the world", but I don't have the option of shutting down my bio functions until it blows over, so I'd h

  • When you look at WoW, something like this would be HORRIBLE if it happened to the world. Though, WoW has a few key features that do help the spread of such a disease, but are not at all reflected in reality.

    First: WoW is small compared to the world. Tiny, actually. At best, WoW is the equivalent of a rather small country, certainly no planet.

    Second: High population density. Even Tokyo isn't as cramped as IF. Even the most remote corners of WoW are filled with people.

    Third: Mandatory congregation points. Whi
  • by sabt-pestnu (967671) on Tuesday August 21 2007, @01:15PM (#20307979)
    The MMORG A Tale In The Desert [atitd.com] also had a disease event [atitd.net]. Due to game mechanics, there were a few differences.
    In WoW...
    • The WoW disease killed. WoW has an "easy resurrection" system, so it didn't cost players more than a few minutes of inconvenience.
    • The cause was immediately known, and the cure (death) while inconvenient, was also immediately known
    • Detecting a carrier was easy.
    • Being cured of the disease (dying) took little play time.
    In ATITD...
    • The disease debilitated, eventually forcing a disconnect for a period of time (a coma, as it were).
    • The cause had to be discovered by the player community. And even after theories were proven, there were still some cases that could not easily be explained.
    • Much like real life, carriers often didn't know they had it until signs manifested... too late for those around them
    • Discovering a cure was a separate (community) event, requiring much player time and involvement. Actually getting cured took a non-trivial amount of time and resources on the part of the "sick" player. ... and the character could get reinfected a short period after taking the cure. (A permanent cure was eventually discovered, which took MORE resources...)
    Also unlike WoW, ATITD is very much a social game. Introduce, then, something that produces highly negative consequences to social interaction, and you get ... a lot of people leaving a game that is no longer fun.

    On the other hand, I expect the reactions by the people who didn't leave were perhaps even closer to those in the real world than in WoW, because of its social aspects.

    And for those of you who haven't heard of the game before, I should point out that the nature of the game (no combat) and the social ecology tends to select for cooperative behavior. ... and long attention spans...
    • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

      In weird ways they do. Check out this study [nmc.org] from Stanford University.

      Essentially it shows that concepts of personal space survive in online games, so the idea that WOW might be a useful insight into real world behaviour is valid.
      • So what's the real-world analog of "WTF? This sucks, I'm canceling my subscription."
        • by spikedvodka (188722) on Tuesday August 21 2007, @10:06AM (#20304841)
          Don't Jump!!!! There are so many better options... I know a great shrink. ...

          Awww Man... now I've got to call the cops, the coroner, and do you know how many forms I have to fill out?
      • People may have similar online personalities to their real life personalities, but that doesn't mean they are going to act the same to avoid a real disease that is painful/fatal/paralyzing compared to a virtual disease that causes about thirty seconds of inconvenience.

        Also the infrastructures that exist in real-life that aren't in WoW that makes things more complicated, like water systems and sewer systems. Aside from instances (which don't exist in real life), there are no buildings that people can lock t
      • I doubt that it's that simple. I can see how some of the reflex stuff, like the eye contact or distance from each other might count, so I'm not dismissing their research. But I'm saying you should know when to stop extrapolating from what they actually studied, to stuff that you just imagine _should_ work the same way.

        1. Other stuff is more like built on logical decisions, and (consciously or subconsciously) min-maxing rewards vs risks within the rules of the game, not within the rules of RL. The solution p
    • Some portion of the people likely don't act online as they would in real life. But there would be real life asshats to make up for it.

      For example, if I were told I had TB and that I had best not travel, I probably wouldn't, regardless of whether it was to protect themselves or not. There'd be that little voice saying TB is contagious, and I probably shouldn't run the risk...
    • Well, in Second Life I'd say I'm pretty much my RL self. Only blue and with a tail :-)

      For example, just like in RL, it feels uncomfortable to stand too close to somebody. I talk about the same things, and behave nearly the same, with a few inhibitions.
    • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

      Not to mention you can have characters jump all the way across the world in seconds through World of Warcraft, I'd like to see that kind of transportation in real life.

      On the time-scale of a RL disease, flying from the U.S. to Europe is virtually instantaneous transmission across the world. A virulent disease that is highly communicable but has an incubation period in which there is little or no outward sign of infection would go global pretty quickly with such a fast vector as air travel.

      cheers.

      • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

        In addition, being in the tightly enclosed space with recirculated air that is the aircraft, there's a good chance it won't be only yourself who is the vector on the other side. Hit the restroom early in the flight and increase those chances! This is probably even more effective than trying to cough on random people on the other side.