Games Analysts Weighs In On Console War 194
Gamaustra's latest in its 'Analyze This' series asks the question point blank: Which Console Will 'Win' 2007? The regular series puts weighty questions to business analysts who specialize in the games industry, to get a gestalt opinion on what's really going on. The well-respected Michael Pachter, of Wedbush Morgan Securities, had some of the most interesting comments to review. He says that Nintendo will 'appear' to win in 2007 because of its low price and innovative control scheme, but that Sony will be the winner in the long run. From the article: "My best guess is that Sony emerges as the winner of the movie format war in late 2008, and games start looking noticeably better in 2009. That's when Sony starts looking like the winner of the next generation battle. All of this is pretty far out, and a lot can happen with pricing to change things. For example, if Sony gets down the cost curve for Blu-ray and Cell processors, [the PS3] may be below $300 shortly thereafter. It's hard to say that this will happen before 2009, but it could. That would change everything."
New game consoles, OK, but what about new games (Score:3, Interesting)
Well, (Score:1, Interesting)
Re:Well or why the price must drop (Score:2, Interesting)
This is a true statement. Notice the street price in Japan has already been slashed, even before the EU launches, as they try to deal with lower console sales there. Prices haven't dropped in the US market, but the product isn't moving either, according to a number of online and print articles in various business sources - WSJ, CNN Business, CNBC, etc.
With the massive console losses already in place, it might be better to realize who the real competition is - Nintendo's Wii console - and fight them on price. Because, frankly, Sony has a better console at the same price point of the Wii, at least on graphics and speed, even if they don't have a full-fledged motion controller.
You fight the battle with the enemy that's there, not the enemy you lied to yourself would be there.
Re:Sooo... (Score:5, Interesting)
Re:There's no fucking way (Score:2, Interesting)
According to dvd empire [dvdempire.com] and Eproducwars [eproductwars.com] blu-ray is currently outselling hd-dvd, an effect widely attributed to Ps3 owners buying HD movies. The average blu-ray movie costs less than hd-dvd in amazon as well.
Here's Debbie does dallas in blu-ray, porn in 1080p and multiple angles. [highdefdigest.com]
In a objective comparison, both formats are about the same(excluding player costs which will eventually be similar), except for future catalog:
Blu-ray [highdefdigest.com]
HD-DVD [highdefdigest.com]
Try checking your punctuation (Score:5, Interesting)
http://www.google.com/trends?q=xbox360%2C+playsta
Anyways, as was already noted, Google trends don't exactly indicate hard scientific data, and especially sales. The 360 outsold the Wii 3/2 in the US over the holidays and the PS3 3/1 yet it lagged behind both of them in the Google trends for that period.
Re:New game consoles, OK, but what about new games (Score:1, Interesting)
We went through DDR, the Eye-Toy and now we're working on Guitar Hero and Karaoke on the PS2. Only the last two are seen as relatively new. I'm sure gaming with the Wiimote will continue to be fun for quite some time to come, but at some point it will look about as fresh as the gamepad or a mouse.
When that comes to pass, I hope the "next big thing" is ready for delivery and Nintendo doesn't get stuck with a one-trick pony. New controllers are going to keep coming for the PS3, much like they did for the PS2. I hope Nintendo is not so enamored with it's current innovation that it decides to take a pass on the innovations yet to come.
Re:How will they hang on to developers (Score:1, Interesting)
When, not if, HD hits America big, there are only going to be two options for your gaming, and neiter one of them has a W anywhere in the name. But that's the trick, when will it happen? If it happens in late 2007 or 2008 the PS3 will benefit and game publishers will take notice.
If your prediction is that it will be totally dead by then, I think you might be talking more with your heart than with your head. Your "half a million" number is just that kind of thinking. It's predicting that Sony will not only fail to sell even one more console, but will actually take back a third of what it already has sold. If you're ready to call it after just two months, you've got steel balls. I suggest waiting for The Fat Lady to at least start warming up.
what about psp/ps3 and DS/Wii combo potential? (Score:2, Interesting)
Download services and hand-held integration hopefully will play a big part in this generation. A wireless Four Swords
would be great, and SOCOM3 has some unlockables when you plug
your PSP into a PS2 USB port. I also remember hearing that PS3 has a download service already in Japan.
If Sony and Nintendo can leverage their handheld sales from
the last year properly, they will make up ground they lost
from the Xbox360's head start.
BS mainly. (Score:2, Interesting)
Now there is the third, "respected" analyst. Example argument from TFA:
"If I'm right, Sony will end up winning the high-definition format war, and once there are millions of Blu-ray enabled PS3s floating around, I think we will see sharper graphics on PS3 games compared to Xbox 360 games."
Where does he base this? Because maybe just because the PS/3 touts "1080p"? Or because Blue Ray "is larger so it can fit sharper graphics... and stuff". Any hardware geek (like several here), just looking at the specs can see that the 360 has a more capable GPU (compare unreleased R600 level GPU to previous gen G70...), and a CPU which is easier to use effectively.
Not to mention that by 2009 when the PS/3 will have become "affordable", it will no longer be a nexgen system, so it will only sell if it already has a huge base (thus developer support).
I don't see such a bright future for the PS/3, unless something big happens (half price anyone?), but if Sony wins the HD wars, they will probably not really care. Royalties from Blue Ray will bring more money
Re:Nintendo Wii to age faster? (Score:3, Interesting)
Lets assume HD TV adoption really takes off in the next year or two, to the extent that by, say, 2010, SD sets are a real minority (-30 percent of sets).
Lets also assume, and it's probably not too far from the truth, that MS has a bottomless pit of money, and are willing to do prety much anything to bury Sony.
Now, lets stop assuming things and look at stuff we know. The X-box had a four year life cycle (2001 - 2005). The PS3 is being sold at a loss, so sony need it to have a nice long life cycle in order to recoup their investment. They have publicly stated that they expect the PS3 to have 10 year life cycle. Nintendo on the other hand, make money on every Wii they sell.
OK, time for some more suppositon. Suppose MS decides to stick to four year turnaround, and X-box 3 launches in 2009. This would put Sony in a virtually impossible position. They would have only had three years of PS3 at that point, would be unlikely to have a PS4 ready to launch any time soon, and if the new X-box was significantly better than the PS3 and started to steal its sales, they might be looking at taking a loss on the PS3 overall
Nintendo, on the on the other hand, probably wouldn't care. They don't sell the Wii off the back of power or pretty graphics. The X-box 360 is already more powerful than the Wii, so if X-box 3 was even more powerfull, who cares? And if it really became an issue, if the market was really demanding an HD Wii, well OK. Nintendo aren't selling at a loss, they are likely to have made plenty of cash off the Wii in three years time, so they could just shrug their shoulders, move to four year structure themselves, and launch the Hii Dii in 2010.
Of course that's probably all bullshit.
Maybe I could be an analyst too.
Sooo Ummm think about this... (Score:2, Interesting)
Re:Concerning the Wii. . . (Score:3, Interesting)
Red Steel was a broken game that should not have been on sale, that was Ubisoft being retarded, and while Call of Duty 3 has people complaining about not being able to play for more than an hour before their left arm gives in and they cannot keep their direction set right - Nintendo does advise regular breaks from console usage.
And online is no niche, it's the future, it is the biggest thing lacking from current games coming for the Wii. It is what hurt Call of Duty 3.