Wii 2 Delay Is Hurting Nintendo 310
BanjoTed writes "Michael Pachter's ongoing spat with Nintendo regarding the Wii 2 is well documented. Pachter is sure it's coming, Nintendo says it's not. Now the analyst has gone one further by claiming that the declining sales of the Wii documented in the platform holder's recent financial statements will only get worse unless it speeds up attempts to get its successor to market. He said, 'The reason for this is clear: the software being created is just not interesting enough or compelling enough to drive Wii owners to buy more than two [games] per year, and most of those purchases are first party software. We can blame the third party publishers for making shovelware, or for misjudging the Wii market, but the simple fact is that the publishers have to develop completely separate games for the Wii because its CPU is not powerful.'"
Won't get Fooled Again (Score:4, Interesting)
I think they'll need to come out with another major innovation (not just HD output) to get many to buy into the hype again. Of course, I also think the iPad will go the same way the Wii did, but I've frequently been wrong when it comes to judging consumers.
Re:Gee, didn't someone get lynched for saying that (Score:5, Interesting)
Re:Gee, didn't someone get lynched for saying that (Score:3, Interesting)
" IT PRINTS MONEY!"
Yes but you can't succeed over the long-term alone. The real issue is that Nintendo should have been bribing or buying out developers left and right to get real gamers games on it's console. The cost of development for games is huge for development houses and Nintendo really should have invested a lot more money once the Wii took off in other (western) developers.
Re:Won't get Fooled Again (Score:4, Interesting)
The problem is that since it's not a multi purpose media player like the PS3, people have to justify their purchases to specifically playing games. At least with the Sony machine you can play ordinary Blu-ray disks.
I guess it'll remain to be seen if Nintendo comes up with the novel hook yet again. Wii-motes were indeed awesome. The balance board is still awesome. But what can they do to top themselves? Echo location? Facial expression recognition? They also are kind of bound to keep themselves kid-friendly, which means more adult-oriented accessories are out of their picture -- no Wii-AK-47s or Wii-M16A4s with sniper scopes.
Maybe they'll have a traffic tutor and 3D output and sell Wii-Certified Driving School games. Or maybe they'll make the Wii-motes interact with each other so you can actually play light sabers with your buddies. Don't know.
Re:Gee, didn't someone get lynched for saying that (Score:4, Interesting)
Re:Gee, didn't someone get lynched for saying that (Score:3, Interesting)
I don't know if you've thought about it (clearly you haven't) but Nintendo is screwed now. What trick will they pull out of their hat now? Sony and Microsoft have the (gimmicky, as it was in the Wii) motion control. They have the developers. They have the hardware. Where do you think that leaves Nintendo in 5 years?
But I'm sure you disagree, Nintendo has its fans apparently. I guess the only way we'll know is in 5 years time. I'll come back here to gloat when Nintendo is the Palm of 2015 looking for someone to buy them.
How? (Score:4, Interesting)
The Wii has nearly outsold both the PS3 and Xbox360 put together, and made a profit on every unit sold (70 m Wii's, 33 m PS3's, 40 M Xbox360's).
The decline in Wii sales can be quite easily explained in by the prolonged global downturn and the fact that there are so many Wii's already in the hands of consumers. Unlike the other consoles they don't RROD or have a "Nintendo" timer so the need for existing customers to replace their Wii is minimal. Eventually a console will reach maximum saturation and at 70 million units shipped I'm not surprised, everyone and their mum has a Wii already and those bought back in 2008 are still working. Nintendo and Wii software makers are reporting that "net profit has fallen" not that they are making a loss.
Nintendo have nothing to lose here, most popular console, cheapest console and according to Patcher, who's spat against Nintendo is well documented their software sales have only declined about 6.5% (205m units per year to 192m units per year). So the Wii is still printing money for Nintendo, they don't need to harm that by revealing another console in 2012, 2013-2014 would be more likely with the battering Japan's economy took in the GFC. I'm sure Nintendo will announce something after Sony and Microsoft do and they aren't going to do anything fast with Sony making a loss on every PS3 and Microsoft barely breaking even on every 360, neither have the money to waste nor can afford off-putting consumers from their current offerings.
Point in short, Nintendo are on top of the console hill, they don't need to do anything. The entire generation of consoles will be around for a while due to the GFC killing funding for R&D, maybe Sony really will get 10 years out of the PS3 although with the way Sony has been haemorrhaging money in the GFC there may not be a PS4.
Re:Gee, didn't someone get lynched for saying that (Score:3, Interesting)
the gamecube pretty much showed that damaging developer relations with a previous platform can hurt the next one. The N64 had very little quality 3rd party titles, and this continued on the gamecube, even though hardware wise the cube was very potent for its day and age.
If i were a software developer currently ignoring the wii, i'd have little reasons to think the new nintendo machine would be a serious turn around. It is doubtfull nintendo could make the jump from the wii to a system capable of competing eye to eye with the next xbox/ps.
And the fact that most wii owners have very low attach rates for games also hurts the prospects for the wii2. The joe-sixpack who got a wii for wii-bowling doesnt want the newest/fastest/shiniest, like all the hardcore fanboys. This means that the wii2 would have a lower uptake in the hardcore market because of a lack of serious games (which is what got me to turn my back on nintendo, they just dont care about gamers anymore), and will strugle to compete in the non-traditional gamer market, since that is pretty much saturated with wii (no pun intended).
From a hardware/marketing point of view nintendo's new machine will be very interesting, but the only reason i'll ever buy one is because my girlfriends want to play wii-fit 2 HD or whatever... (and i'll never touch it after the first week)
Wii 2 would hurt more than help (Score:5, Interesting)
Head to your local GameStop, the used game section is incredibly active for PS2, yet the PS3 selection is piss poor in comparison.
Nintendo has managed to achieve tremendous market proliferation and has placed a Wii in more houses than anyone would have ever imagined. A new Wii, which costs a bunch more money may sell well to many people, but in reality, it won't achieve the same levels as Wii. Nintendo knows this. They need to focus on making the current console more attractive. A simple external storage device for downloadable games would be the next real logical step for them.
Downloadable games are really the way to go for them. They already do quite well selling old games (and a few new) through their online store, but there are no new and fancy games for the console out there. The console vendors are desperate for solutions through downloadable content since they can full control over how the game is resold after the fact. If they make the games less expensive by selling them online, they can close the "used game" hole which is hurting them.
With an external harddrive/network adapter combination device (wired network should have been standard to start), they could then run a HUGE marketing campaign to get people to start buying the games online instead of in the stores. It would increase margins across the board for everyone. Additionally, to get past the typical nervous online consumers issue (meaning people not liking using credit cards online), they could sell a package from a game at a store like GameStop with a serial number to allow them to download the game to their Wii.
The important thing they must do though is to lock the store to a user instead of a console. This way if a device breaks down, the consumer would be able to transfer their purchases to the new unit.
So, a Wii 2 would do nothing more than introduce new hardware which they would have to try and get into everyone's homes where there is still so much more to be done with the Wii before it's "old and crappy".
Re:Gee, didn't someone get lynched for saying that (Score:4, Interesting)
The games on the PS3 and 360 Sucked in 2007 and surprise surprise they still suck in 2010.
You miss the point, the hardware doesn't make a good console, in that respect they are always in 2nd place to the PC. It's the games that make the console, whilst Microsoft and Sony's best games only sold 8 and 5 million respectively Nintendo has 9 games that have outsold them with the top game (Wii Sports) selling 67 million copies. Nintendo is doing well because playing the Wii is fun, this is what Sony and Microsoft forgot when designing their powerhouses. Nintendo came with a console that is not only the weakest and cheapest console but the most fun.
Sony has ignored the fact that console players want simple, fun games. Microsoft has taken note but as always fails to deliver anything useful (Natal), the next Xbox you can expect to be Microsoft's copy of the Wii (the Xii perhaps). With the financial trouble Sony is in, all bets are off on whether there will be a PS4.
Re:Wii 2 would hurt more than help (Score:3, Interesting)
They've just recently announced that the base package will come with Wii Sports and Wii Sports Resort, with the included Wiimote now coming equipped with the Wii Motion Plus by default. Linky. [nintendo.com]
The old Wii (got mine 3~4 years ago) already comes with a slot for an SD card, and these come in GB sizes these days. Sticking a 2GB card in my Wii's slot gives me a huge amount of room to store downloaded games from the online Wii store.
Ah. I see you're talking about selling disc-based games online instead, not just the current WiiWare and Virtual Console online offerings. That might fly in Europe, but I wonder if US infrastructure is really up for that? I suppose it would work okay if the games could be bought both online and in disc form. Part of Nintendo's reticence to offer full disc games online might also have to do with control -- I haven't tried popping a Wii disc into a PC, but if the discs use a proprietary data format (non-ISO), or even just if the games require the presence of the disc, it would offer one extra layer of protection against cracks. Disc presence is a bugaboo for PC games, but for a console, it's just expected. I'm not sure if Nintendo (or Sony or MS, for that matter) would be all too willing to give that up.
From the Wikipedia article [wikipedia.org]:
Admittedly, requiring a USB-Ethernet adapter for wired connectivity is a bit of a barrier, but the option does exist.
And, FWIW, I know of a number of people who have not yet gotten a Wii, who are thinking of doing so now that the Netflix partnership is up and running. And I've found that Netflix via our Wii seems to work better than via our MacBook laptop -- I don't know what they changed in the streaming algorithms, but we seldom see buffering problems on the Wii vs. pretty common on the laptop, and the resolution looks better on the Wii as well, less pixelated. YMMV, and all that.
I agree, wholeheartedly. Part of what made the Wii work so well competition-wise is that it brought something truly novel to the table. I have trouble imagining what the next big novel development would be, but that's the thing about real novelty -- it's new. :) Maybe 3D? That would depend on TV technology, so probably not. Maybe some funky new control scheme? That might open up a whole can of lawsuit worms, but who knows? It's fun thinking about, and anticipating, and it's fun playing the current Wii to, so there you go.
Cheers,
Re:Gee, didn't someone get lynched for saying that (Score:1, Interesting)
The PS2 is more than a gaming console. I know lots of people who own two. One normal and one with added functionality. I also know a lot of females who bought a singstar/PS2 bundle and that's the only game they play on it (and it is the only "computer" game they want to play).
Not counting the sngstar fanatics everyone else I know has access to a Wii.
On the other hand the problem isn't that the wii has a less powerful cpiu: The problem is that wii users expect another interface. Many games don't use the controller as it is intended. You just have to hold it sideways and pretend it is a gamepad like any other. The developers need to put more thought into the interface and maybe more games will be sold. Games that use motion sensors are in the store for IPhones. Look there get an idea. Learn to design interfaces. Look at apple,
Having a single game on radical different platforms needs you to redesign the interface. For example don't play Star Wars force unleashed on PC (or at least dont expect an experience like you got from the Jedi games based on the quake engine.). Don't know how the wii version works out, but just needing a button combination to smash the bosses is meh as is having mouse support only for turning around.
The problem is companies want effortless money. Maybe they need to learn that they need more to do than just spamming all platforms.
Re:How? (Score:3, Interesting)
All consoles have their problems (though the 360 admittedly had more) and the Wii is no exception. You might want to look up WC24 mode overheating issues (the Hollywood's power management is horrid and their software doesn't help by keeping the ARM CPU usage at 100% while the console is "off"), graphical corruption issues which may or may not be caused by said overheating (search for "pixel snow" or something like that), and DVD drive issues, both mechanical and related to disc read performance (for some reason just about all console disc drives suck, ask Nintendo about their issues with dual-layer games). Not to mention their latest update bricked a bunch of consoles because their bootloader update code is broken (they blame it on homebrew, but we know for a fact that's utter FUD).
Re:Gee, didn't someone get lynched for saying that (Score:4, Interesting)
Sony and Microsoft have the (gimmicky, as it was in the Wii) motion control. They have the developers. They have the hardware. Where do you think that leaves Nintendo in 5 years?
Sony has had motion controls since before the PS3 came out. No one cared about it then. Sony is going to try a little harder this time I guess, we'll see how that works out for them again. I'm going to guess it's going to be another weak attempt to copy what nintendo is doing, and won't work out well. They may have learned their lesson with the sixaxis: if you're going to do motion controls, do them at least as well as nintendo.
I suspect though that the situation with motion control games will be the reverse of what we see for most games though. If someone is going to make a game that uses the wand-style motion controls, they're probably going to make it for the wii, with it's huge user base, and then port it to the PS3 if they can. How many people are going to make a game with the "gimmicky" controls, and then market it exclusively to the much smaller customer base? Sony hasn't exactly been locking down the exclusives for the PS3.
Natal... I don't know. Maybe that could actually steal thunder from the wii. On the other hand, maybe no one will want to do anything besides "eye toy" type gimmicky games for an attachment that not everyone with a 360 is going to have.
I'd guess the price difference will continue to work for the wii, maybe. Those "casual gamers" that everyone says nintendo is catering to aren't all going to say "screw the $200 box I bought, I'm going to buy this $600 one!" Or however much the PS3 or 360 are, I really don't know, but I gather they're still more expensive.
In 5 years that leaves nintendo with plenty of time to make and sell games to the people who have wiis, I don't know. I don't see anything though to indicate nintendo is going to fritter away all the money it's gotten with the wii. And don't forget the handheld market. Nintendo's doing pretty good there too.
The problem with Wii (Score:3, Interesting)
The problem with Wii is that it lacks good games. Wii hardware is good enough. Sure, it's not the best, but it's OK. Wii controllers are broken, but you can get a classic controller to fix them. The real problem is that Wii has no games besides a few, for a very narrow market niche. How many people these days want to play Mario? And Zelda? Among RPG fans, Zelda is not a huge hit. It's kind of a boring game. Zelda can in no way compare to Fallout 3 (never mind 2, etc.), Oblivion, and even Final Fantasy 12. Arguably Zelda is better than FF13, but only because 13 was so terrible.
So the problem is that Nintendo games are boring have beens of the past, and their 3rd party support is limited and the games focus on gimmickry and waggliness above all else.
And I don't think Nintendo is going to be fixing their software any time soon. So making Wii 2 will not help them in the least. People already know to avoid buying Wii. Many people's Wii is currently gathering dust.