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Games Entertainment

Virtual Indianapolis 500 Winner Announced 25

Posted by simoniker from the no-need-to-run-the-actual-thing dept.
Thanks to an anonymous reader for pointing to this Codemasters press release announcing the winner of the virtual Indianapolis 500, ahead of the actual race this weekend. Apparently Sam Hornish Jr. surged ahead at the last minute to win this pre-race simulation, which was staged using Codemasters' newly released IndyCar game for Playstation 2. Is there any reason to hope that these sports sims (racing, baseball, football, soccer, and so on) have a real possibility of predicting the outcome of matches, or entire seasons?
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Virtual Indianapolis 500 Winner Announced More

Virtual Indianapolis 500 Winner Announced

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  • Statistics (Score:2, Informative)

    by Samus ( 1382 )
    I used to work for a company that did sports simulations on a web site. Most of the engines were based on statistics. Back in March when the maddness hit I used the website to fill out some picks for a pool. I ran each possible game several times and then picked the one that consistently won. It came close and even managed to pick some upsets. If the other team would have won the last game I would have gotten 3rd place in the pool and a bit of cash. So while the current capability is not there if th
  • And I don't mean the 3D meshes. I read in the hard-copy of Wired some time last year that in Hong Kong (I think) companies are spending a year developing software models of horse races, taking into account all sorts of little variables, and using them to figure out bets. They're so successful, they generally have to launder the money, and place bets through various 3rd parties in order to stay "in business."

    I could see the same thing happening with off the shelf software, maybe, if you could make the softw

  • They've been doing this for a few years... (Score:4, Insightful)

    by analog_line ( 465182 ) on Friday May 23, 2003 @07:39AM (#6022821)
    Sony has done it the last eight years with their Gameday football game, like the week before the Super Bowl. I believe they get the captains or each team (not sure of the selection process) to play each other. So far it's predicted the outcome eight out of eight times tried.

    http://psx.gamezone.com/news/01_29_03_03_08PM.ht m
    • That's not a good predictor to use at all. Basically, you're taking event X, which is related to event Y in a few ways but in many other ways is quite different, to predict event Y. If they were using the demo mode to let Gameday play out the game itself, then it would be a more sound predictor because then the behavior of the two teams would be based on the statistical models represented in the game. As it is, the individual players who are representing their teams are not indicative of how well the team m
      • Actually, it is a better predictor than mere statistical models. Odd things happen on the field. You can't statistically model a clutch player or someone who folds under pressure. Having an actual person playing the game makes it more real, frankly. A computer can't out-think itself. A computer can't improvise like a human player can. If statistical models were all that mattered, gambling would cease to exist within days, because everything could be modeled.

        Of course it's not perfect, but 8 of 8, eac
        • No, it's not a better predictor. Yes, it introduces the possibility of random chance but that randomness is not a reflection of the real game in any way whatsoever. There is a huge difference between video game football and real football and using statistical models of football games will be a much better predictor over the long run.

          8 out of 8? 8 tries and you're terming it a success? Discrete math tells us that eight trials is not going to cut it for this type of event. And if you want to know why gambling


  • I understand the allure of 'replicating' or 'predicting' real-world sports. That's been around since way before even our Mac II baseball games where we shared teams by diskette that we'd created with real players.

    The predicting side of this is probably only of interest for people involved in sports betting and serious fanatics--but given the rise of game leagues, online competition has proven pretty well that it can stand on its own, hasn't it?

    The first example of this that I'm aware of is the Internat [inl.org]

  • I don't see why not (Score:3, Funny)

    by deacon_jay ( 612834 ) on Friday May 23, 2003 @08:35AM (#6023179)
    This monkey [www.ctv.ca] has a perfect record picking winners in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
    And I'm sure that sport simultations are more sophisticated than a monkey spinning a wheel, right?

  • Not for racing, but maybe for other sports (Score:5, Interesting)

    by Bravo_Two_Zero ( 516479 ) on Friday May 23, 2003 @08:43AM (#6023231)
    In other sports, past performance may be a better indicator of future performance, even with slightly different environment variables. There are exceptions (numerous, I'd think) like Tom Glavine's first outing as a Met in windy, 38-degree weather (no moisture on the hands for the nuanced friction of a typical release). Rain has a similar effect, but it's more obvious.

    And you could say, in football, the Dolphins don't win in the cold, the Packers win in the snow and so on. There, even the changing environment could be figured into a simulation.

    But racing is more impacted by microclimates, and those can hardly be predicted for weather forcasting. Particularly at Indy, where the cars don't even use brakes in normal operation (speed primarily drops as the cars drift in the corners or from the associated throttle lift), the simulation goes well beyond the car, track or driver.

    And even there, besides the obvious mechanicals, the amount of crud on the track (oil, fuel, rubber, water, carbon fiber threads) and the different rubber compounds available for the tires, the driver is often the least predictable. A sim can say "Schumacher drives this way on this track," but who could have predicted the actions of the unpredictable, talented amateur Kimi Raikkonen? He had no base of data from which to draw, but he scored points as a rookie.

    The longer races allow for an exponential increase in all of the above unknown factors. The microclime on turn three changes hour to hour. The new C-compound Pirellis leave more crap on the outside of the hairpin than expected. Billy Boat has a minor case of the flu that is tiring him more rapidly.

    So, I'd have to allow that, given a large number of weather scenarios (temp, pressure, wind, sun/shade, precip) combined with weighted random factors for mechanicals and driver behavior, you might predict a portion of a race, like the standings after the first few laps. By feeding live data during the race, you might come closer to predicting the outcome as well.

    But remember, if it's possible, a Formula 1 team would likely already be doing it.
  • Is there any reason to hope that these sports sims (racing, baseball, football, soccer, and so on) have a real possibility of predicting the outcome of matches, or entire seasons?

    No.

  • Doubtful.... (Score:2, Interesting)

    by Monkeylaser ( 674360 )
    The deciding factor in a lot of sports, cliche though it is to say, is a will to win. You can't quantify heart, with a statistical breakdown. You can't predict a quarterback is going to stay in a game with a broken leg, (as Donovan McNabb did), or when someone just decides to throw in the towel due to psychological reasons.

    Using statistics will get a reasonable margin of error, but if we always knew a winner was foreordained in any sporting contest nobody would gamble on them anymore.

    Also, it'd b

    • I wish I had mod points... I'd mod you up.

      Predicting sports by playing games may seem like a worthwhile and attainable goal, but in the end, it's impossible to 100% accurately predict the actions of human beings. If you do happen to predict who will win every race in a season, what's next? Predicting the place of every driver? If by some miracle you get that right, why not just start predicting everyone's life, from the moment of their birth, to the moment of their death? Theoretically, if you can 100% ac
  • The fact that "Sam Hornish Jr. surged ahead at the last minute to win this pre-race simulation" leads me to doubt that this would happen in real life. Computers might be great at computing averages, but when it comes to unexpected occurances they tend not to be as accurate. I would believe the results more if Sam Hornish had consistently led the pack.
    • I thought the exact same thing when I read it.

      It basically came up with a simulation that is so highly unlikely that any hope that it is correct is insane.

      I'm sure the reason this happened in the game has an internal setting that cars in back will natrually do slightly better than cars in front so that the game is competitive and not 500 laps of left turns.
    • Hmm,

      The simulation must have been based on last year's cars. Since Sam Hornish is driving a Chevy, which are conservatively down 40-50 hp on the Honda and Toyota-powered entries, and considering that no Chevy qualfied within 5 miles of the pole speed, the only sure bet on Sam Hornish for this weekend's race is how long it take for him to be lapped.

      But then again, it is virtual reality. As evidenced by the stands packed full of fans in the video game.

      Dr. Wu

  • totally (Score:2, Funny)

    by chill182 ( 591443 )
    Video games can totally be used to predict events. Just the other day I played Battlefield 1942 and it turns out the Allies would win in a war against the Axis. Who would have predicted that?
  • ESPN2 to start broadcasting Madden games. My dad even watched me play Madden 2002 for a few hours after I got it, and he HATES videogames.
  • I read somewhere that EA has used Madden to predict the superbowl, and they were correct something like 6 out of 7 times.

    If enough variables can be factored in, and this probably won't happen with consumer level games or software any time soon, I'd imagine that software could be developed capable of predicting a high percentage of games correctly. They will never be able to get 100% accuracy, but 90% is possible in our lifetime and enough to win some nice money (60% to 70% accuracy) shouldn't be too hard

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