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PC Games (Games) Entertainment Games

MMOG Subscription Growth Analyzed 30

Posted by simoniker from the excellent-data-often-kept-quiet dept.
Wtcher writes "Bruce Woodcock has cobbled together a chart recording the growth of various massive multiplayer online games in subscriber numbers, relative to each other. I just found it interesting to see a visual summary of how well each MMOG was doing compared to one another." Apart from Lineage, which is omitted because the author says "trying to compare it to other MMOGs is almost like comparing apples to oranges", it seems that Everquest is still way out there in front, but there's a number of more recently-launched titles jockeying for position in this very competitive market.
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MMOG Subscription Growth Analyzed More

MMOG Subscription Growth Analyzed

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  • What about ATITD? (Score:3, Interesting)

    by Bistronaut ( 267467 ) * on Tuesday May 27, 2003 @10:18PM (#6053875) Homepage Journal
    You insensitive clod! Oh, wait, this isn't a poll is it? ATITD is my MMOG of choice. Check it out at atitd.com [atitd.com] and atitd.net [atitd.net]. Of course, I think it's only in the thousands of simultanious players right now.
  • The only conclusion one could come to from looking at this data is that launching a new MMOG today is an exercise in futility. The number of subscribers you can expect is drastically lowered because of the primary first mover Everquest. In short, the barrier to entry for new MMOGs is raised to the point that finding investors willing to take a gamble on your game will be near impossible.

    • Re:Data is nice, conclusions are better (Score:4, Informative)

      by baywulf ( 214371 ) on Tuesday May 27, 2003 @11:06PM (#6054098)
      Everquest was not the "first mover." There were other MMOGs before it like Ultima Online. So it is still possible for a new game to be successful.
      • Evidence 1: Everquest was not the "first mover."

        Evidence 2: There were other MMOGs before it like Ultima Online.

        Conclusion: it is still possible for a new game to be successful.

        Your conclusion is not supported by any of the evidence. In fact Everquest is the primary first mover as they have defined what it means to be a MMOG. They have all the traits of a first mover including the risk taking involved in pioneering the area and the reward of large numbers of subscribers. That Everquest could wildly su
        • Your conclusion isn't exactly supported by the evidence either.

          There are a lot of new MMOGs under development right now. All are getting considerable funding despite the current economic downturn. Many are being funded by the companies that have current popular games. Sony and Atari are funding several.

          Look at the data again. While a few games are having population decreases, many are still seeing growth. The market is much more mature than when UO and EQ came out, but it hasn't capped yet, and there
    • I played everquest for a long time. I've tried to play other MMOGs since. I can't help but compare the two. Many of them fall in to the "send the characters on boring tasks" rut for NPC quests (which have no impact on the world at all). Gets boring.

      Basically I don't think I could commit that much time to that kind of game ever again. :)
    • Not necessarily. The games on the chart are all Windoze only as far as I know, so other platforms are a wide-open market. And remember, you don't need to sell to Windows users to make a profit.
    • "In short, the barrier to entry for new MMOGs is raised to the point that finding investors willing to take a gamble on your game will be near impossible."

      Hence the dozen or so MMOGs that rented floor space at last E3.

      Guild Wars, EQ2, Horizons, Warhammer, Lineage 2, Exarch, Mythica, WoW, Planetside (since released) and Middle Earth Online are just the big ones I remember off the top of my head. Apparently the people with the money haven't been scared off.

  • Expansion Packs and Other Thoughts (Score:5, Interesting)

    by MBCook ( 132727 ) <foobarsoft@foobarsoft.com> on Tuesday May 27, 2003 @10:21PM (#6053892) Homepage
    Looking at the graph, expansion packs don't seem to do much of anything to the number of players (execpt for the Acheron's Call, which quickly went back to normal). It would seem that while expansion packs are good at keeping gamers from quitting (things are usually flat after an expansion pack is released) they don't do anything to add to the numbers (what do you expect). That said, here are some things I find interesting about different games:
    • EverQuest - What can I say? It shot up fast and while it seems to be slowing down (might start DROPPING soon) it's WAY above everyone else.
    • Ultima Online - Can someone explain to me the big upswing before the last expansion pack? The upswing started at about Nov '02. Is this some kind of pre-expansion pack rejoining?
    • FFXI - Seems to be growing fast. What do you expect from a FF game?
    • Anarchy Online - Why did this suddenly drop/plunge after March '02?
    • Sims Online - Went up quick, leveled off quick, what comes next (falls off quick????)?
    • WWII Online - Do they have a hard limit on the number of subscribers? It's like a straight line. Would be good if there were more than a handfull of subscribers.

    This chart will be cool to watch if he keeps updating it. It will be interesting to see what the new EverQuest game does to the old, etc.

    Also, it would be cool to see the same graph, only relative to the previous sample instead (so up/down trends could be seen easier).

    • Everquest is the only MMOG mentioned that has online game cards. I know at least a few customers who don't have or use credit cards who can only play EQ because of this.

      Related to this, the EQ online adventures for the PS2 has been the biggest flop ever. A handful of people bought it. Then they lowered the price within a week. A week later it was free with the PS2 network adapter. People didn't even want it then. Their next step? The game retails for 20$ USD, and they have free week game discs that
      • The Sims also has game cards that can be purchased.
        • But it and EQ are the only ones that really have no. Anarchy Online, Ultima Online, ShadowBane, WW2 online, etc, don't have such stuff.

          Perhaps because EA meant to target younger girls, they wanted the game time cards out there (considering they don't do the same thing for Ultima).

          What crack head moded my post flamebait?
    • "WWII Online - Do they have a hard limit on the number of subscribers? It's like a straight line. Would be good if there were more than a handfull of subscribers"

      I feel I may be able to shed a bit of light on this one. I've been playing WWIIOL since the day it was released, so I know a bit about this. WWIIOnline caters to a totally different type of subscriber than any other MMOG out there - the 'grognards'. Grognards are a very, um for lack of a better word, 'anal' type of player. They complain about ever
  • Quote:"ShadowBane and Star Wars: Galaxies and PlanetSide. How successful they will be is anyone's guess now."

    Well, I for one can pretty safely say that Star Wars: Galaxies will be really, really, really successful.
    Anyone want to disagree?
    • Yes, I want to disagree.

      Raph Koster, the lead developer on SWG, is a really intelligent guy who writes some of the most insightful articles around on game design. Unfortunately, as particularly proven with some of his decisions while working on Ultima Online, his insight does not reliably pan out in his game design.

      I expect SW:G to be a game with a lot of potential that has so many initial flaws it scares off a lot of its customer base in the first year, and has a hard time winning them back once Koster i
      • I disagree. With all the beta's, delays etc that have been happening, I think that SW:G will only be released when it is genuinely ready. There will not be major initial flaws to ward off the people. My biggest issue will be how much a month will it cost me in Australia, because $25 AUS a month is too much, unless the game was free and comes with a couple of months free play. So after a year it worked out to be around $150. If it had me hooked still after a year, then I'd probably be happy to pay.
  • when I see Final Fantasy XI trailer [defaultstr...tgil250wmv], I've a rush urge to retire NOW and play online game all days. :)

    I know some people actually playing EQ as their full-time job [techdirt.com]. Any career counciler here could enlighten me to the path of professional online gamer? :D
  • Apart from Lineage, which is omitted because the author says "trying to compare it to other MMOGs is almost like comparing apples to oranges"

    Why is Lienage so different? what is it? It's not obvious for me.

    Thanks.

  • If you are interested in MMORGPs and this topic get a copy of Developing Online Games [slashdot.org].
    It goes into a lot more detail then this chart, and provides alot more info on the people who play MMORPGs.

  • LINEAGE FEATURES [lineage.com]

    In the medieval world of Lineage(TM), choose to be a gallant knight, a resourceful wizard, a crafty elf, or a revered prince or princess. Play surrounded by guarded castles, perilous forests, sinister fens and valleys filled with the undead. Slay ferocious monsters unlike any known to man or elf.

    "trying to compare it to other MMOGs is almost like comparing apples to oranges"

    Yes, it definately sounds radically different from such boring mainstream products as Everquest.
    • The problem isn't the game, it's their sales model. For instance, I'm part of the Earth & Beyond curve, I bought the game about a month after release, played three characters for a couple months, and then canceled. E&B recognizes that I was one user who is no longer player, Lineage would have me down as three users until the end of time.
  • Finally someone mentions The Realm Online! I've been playing for about 8 years now. (The first full version was launched in about '97, but the Alpha and Beta stages had been running since about '95.)

    I keep telling people about it, but most tell me I'm an idiot for calling it one of the first MMORPG games out there. It came out before Ultima Online, Everquest and Meridian 59, and I still think it's better than all of them combined. (and yes, I've tried most of the MMORPG's out there.)

    • I tends to see the difference of a mud and mmorpg is that a mmorpg has a graphical interface instead of being text based.
      In which case they old Plato system had a graphical mud that predates 'The Realm' however I would give 'The Realm' the distinction of being the first modern one.
  • Nobody told me I got slashdotted. No wonder my web site exceeded its bandwidth. Not much to comment on here since there aren't many questions that others haven't already addressed. I do have a better estimate for Lineage now; they have somewhere between 800,000 and 1,000,000 legitimate "subscribers" that could be compared with other games. I'm still waiting for some better historical data, however. WWII Online isn't a flat line; it just looks like it. I'm thinking about breaking the chart into two, on

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