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The Almighty Buck Entertainment Games

Holiday Game Sales Not Looking Optimum? 49

Posted by simoniker from the lump-of-coal-in-stocking dept.
Thanks to Yahoo/Reuters for their report suggesting that videogame sales aren't quite as spectacular as hoped, so far this holiday season. Analyst reports cite retailer concerns over: "soft sales", apparently due to "few 'hot' new titles, slow hardware sales, high software price points, and increased competition for consumers' home entertainment dollars as newer technologies become more affordable." Nonetheless, industry observers are expecting "12.5 percent year-over-year software sales growth for November", but this still will "fall well short of original analyst, publisher, and retailer estimates." Finally, although the article cites "broad agreement that there is no blockbuster title this holiday like last year's Grand Theft Auto: Vice City", the "top title at retail" in analyst estimates was EA's Need for Speed Underground, and other top-sellers include True Crime, Tony Hawk's Underground, and GTA Double Pack.
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Holiday Game Sales Not Looking Optimum? More

Holiday Game Sales Not Looking Optimum?

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  • Have to agree (Score:3, Interesting)

    by shione ( 666388 ) on Tuesday December 16, 2003 @04:05AM (#7732712) Journal
    Nothing new is interesting me this holiday season and lately I've just been picking up games I missed that came out in the past like ZOE2: The 2nd Runner, Morrowind, Freedom Force and Resident Evil Remake.

  • Premature ejaculation? (Score:3, Insightful)

    by iq in binary ( 305246 ) <iq_in_binary@hRASPotmail.com minus berry> on Tuesday December 16, 2003 @04:06AM (#7732714) Homepage
    Who was it that said %40 of sales were between the 14th and the 23rd last year? Isn't that any indicator that such "Captain Obvious" statements should be belated until at least the 23rd?

  • Few Hot Titles (Score:4, Interesting)

    by illuminata ( 668963 ) on Tuesday December 16, 2003 @04:34AM (#7732803) Journal
    It seems as if nobody's wanting to make anything different. Publishers are only wanting to go with the safe bets that are likely to make some money, but not much. They'll copy another company's game and add a few extra features, then claim that their title is better.

    My guess is that if publishers started to fund original ideas and took a few risks, that sales would boom for them. Since consumers are starved for something different, there's a good chance that those ideas would do well.

    • Re:Few Hot Titles (Score:3, Interesting)

      by nkodengar ( 622810 )
      The major games expected this Christmas were Half-Life 2 and DooM 3, but they are both a.w.o.l., so it's hardly suprising that the lineup this year isn't exactly amazing... Thogh it must be said -- the new Prince of Persia game looks pretty hot, <rose tinted spectacles> the orignal 2 games were fantastic, even if they were borderline impossible towards the end...</rose tinted spectacles> And the three examples I have just given are all sequels... I think you are right :/
      • Not to mention games that came out a few weeks ago, such as
        Crimson Skies (though a bit older)
        Final Fantasy X-2
        Fire Emblem (again a bit older)
        Mario Kart:DD
        Super Mario Bros. 3
        Mario & Luigi: Superstar Saga

        but yes, a lot of the new games came out almost a bit early for the XMas rush, and many games were delayed until January at the earliest (FF:CC, Doom 3, HL2), and probably later (in the cases of the latter 2).

  • How are DVD sales going? (Score:3, Insightful)

    by Kris_J ( 10111 ) * on Tuesday December 16, 2003 @04:36AM (#7732811) Homepage Journal
    Games are a particular taste, and quite expensive. Better to hedge bets with a couple of DVDs.

    An interesting statistic would be the percentage of xmas video game sales that aren't presents. All the stuff I buy I'd buy all year round, it's just that so much of it is released "for xmas" and therefore it looks like I spend more specifically because it is xmas.

  • So far we have sold more NFS:UG than anything. I think it is our best seller right now across PS2 and Xbox. Gamecube sales of the title are slow and we even have gotten a couple back in trade.

    THUG is selling well too.

    It is hard to tell who is leading though, as I dont keep track of the actual sales. I do want to point out the article is right, sales are slow for our little store. I am glad they are slow though, gives us more time to stand around and play geometry wars, the only reason to buy Project Gotha
  • Games have to be scheduled many mnoths in advance. I guess most people expected HL2 and D3 to be coming out now and didn't want to clash with those heavy weights. To bad they are both still a few months away.
    • Well you had to be a real optimist to have be expected them to be out before christmas. Did people really think they could make it? Did they ever say they would make it? I don't know why but it seems to me like forever until d3 finally gets released.
      Maybe christmas next year?
      • You could be right, it may be next christmas before we see either/both.

        I think that they (HL2 especially) better watch out, as their main selling point is going to be all the physics stuff (as well as all the nice vertex/fragment shader based gfx), but there are several other games in development which include physics engines (does anyone know of any other engines which specifically licence the havoc engine as valve has?).

        I doubt many new titles (fps specifically) are being designed without a physics engi
        • RTCW isn't based on valve's engine but on id's. It is totally bases on q3. I never really liked half-life so i don't know too much about that.
        • Like RtCW, MoH was not an HL engine license. In fact, the only games that used the HL engine were HL and the various mods that were released to retail (like Counterstrike). HL itself was a Quake-engine based game, which could explain the similarities between it and other games which licensed newer Quake engines (most recent FPS games licensed the Q3 engine).

          As for someone stealing HL2's thunder, well, I just don't think that's going to happen. Doom 3 is probably the only game that has a chance of doing tha
    • To bad they are both still a few months away.

      And a good thing, too. It means I don't have to go shopping for a new gfx card just yet. :-)

  • Not great news from the sales floor (Score:5, Informative)

    by GreatDrok ( 684119 ) on Tuesday December 16, 2003 @05:09AM (#7732926) Journal
    I work in a major game retailer in the UK and I have to agree that it is looking pretty grim. Sales of hardware have been very slack, a couple of weeks ago we did well but that was the last pay day before Christmas, the week after we sold far fewer. The latest games have so far proven uninspiring. The only game I have really enjoyed (and therefore sold a lot of) is Simpsons Hit and Run. I bought Medal of Honour Rising Sun and am struggling to find much good to say about it. Prince of Persia is graphically nice but somewhat brief. Manhunt just doesn't hit the mark and True Crime is a dead loss. You just have to look at the game returns or trade ins to see what games are worth having. Simpsons Hit and Run doesn't come back, all the others I listed have are already on the second hand shelves.

    I think the big surprise is the popularity of the GameCube. For the first time since I started working in the shop I sold more GCs than the other two consoles put together.

    Personally, I think I'm going to drag out my N64 and have another go through Goldeneye. Perhaps they should look at putting out an updated version of that for the GameCube or even the other platforms. Heck, even the original version done like the recent Zelda pack would be a great seller. It destroys all the other Bond games.

    • Re:Not great news from the sales floor (Score:4, Insightful)

      by Oddly_Drac ( 625066 ) on Tuesday December 16, 2003 @05:59AM (#7733050)
      "I work in a major game retailer in the UK and I have to agree that it is looking pretty grim."

      If that's 'Game', they will look pretty grim. Go check out play.com to see how much you're being undercut.

      One of the major factors in the UK at the moment is that prices haven't budged before Christmas; there was a time when, like the food retailers, quite a few places would reduce their prices in the run up to increase the short term spending power of the customer...this has all but disappeared in the media and electronics industry (although they're still trying to shift the X-boxes this year.)

      BTW, you didn't mention Worms3D, NFS:Underground or Max Payne 2. They aren't selling?

  • Analyst estimates? (Score:2, Insightful)

    by MMaestro ( 585010 )
    Whats with the games so-called "analysts" chose to be the big hits this Christmas?

    GTA Double Pack? Unless you don't have a PS2 and/or medium end computer (relatively speaking), who DOESN'T have a copy of at least one of the two games? (Not to mention all the publicity its gotten over the years...)
    True Crime Streets of LA? Considering thats in the same line as GTA Double Pack, I'm gonna assume analysts gambled on the violence factor and figured the mindless masses would buy into it.
    Tony Hawk Underground? Ad

  • Estimates Too High? Shock of Shocks! (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Babbster ( 107076 ) <aaronbabb&gmail,com> on Tuesday December 16, 2003 @05:34AM (#7732982) Homepage
    Welcome to the land of trying to inflate stock prices. I find it amusing that an article can describe a year-over-year increase in sales (a 12.5% increase in sales should be something to celebrate, not lament) and then paint such a dreary picture.

    I have a suggestion as to WHY analysts have been too optimistic about increasing video game sales (besides trying to inflate stock prices, of course). I think it's likely that analysts are looking at the console sales and the potential increase in game sales without taking into account the fact that gaming newcomers are probably going to buy fewer games overall than their "hardcore" brethren. For example, someone who stood in line for 10 or more hours in the freezing cold to buy a PS2 on launch day is probably an avid gamer who will spend a lot of money on new games. On the other hand, someone who picked up their first game console within the past year is more likely to be someone who was waiting for console prices to come down and will probably spend less discretionary income on software.

    Of course, there are still two big shopping weeks to consider. The second week (26th through 31st) in particular could be interesting because we'll see how people spend their liquid holiday loot. In any case, it's too early to make any big hay out of this. Maybe a week or two after New Year's, an article like this could have some SOLID numbers.

  • Personally, I've become addicted to Savage [s2games.com].

    While some games last over an hour, most last about 15 minutes, so it is easy to jump in.

    To win, you need a team; good warriors, good leaders, and (critical) a good commander. They all have to work together, and at times build structures or go on suicide runs.

    If any part of the team is weak, your team will likely loose.

    The main problem with the game is that there aren't enough players (and getting stiffed by a poor commander), though over the last few week

    • Forgot to mention: Savage runs under Windows and Linux.
      • I was interesting in this game, very interested now that it runs on Linux. Although I have enough games for Xbox and PS2 to keep me busy for a year, how is the FPS aspect? I was a *huge* fan of Unreal Tournament and really haven't played another FPS that hooked me in like that.
          1. how is the FPS aspect?

          If you like go-it-alone FPS, there are times when Savage is quite nice. Sniper, sneeking into an enemy's base, or just mowing them down. Kill more, get more gold for bigger weapons and other tools (land mines are my favorite; 60+ kills in a 40 minute game!).

          If you like capture the flag, Savage will not disapoint since there tends to be 2-4 flags; capture a flag and you can spawn there -- usually closer to the enemy base.

          It will look and act like a traditional FPS at first, th

  • Considering the game line-up this year, this is hardly suprising. Most games are either a)reiterations of a proven formula or b)resource hungry hogs 80% of the public cant run on their systems (in the case of PC titles at least). Also the PS2 and the GC are getting pretty old. The graphics just cant keep up with the newsest PC titles anymore. I usually buy around 20-30 games a year, but this year i only bought around 10 simply because I didnt find any games of the quality/novelty that i want.

  • Well, I'm doing my bit (Score:4, Insightful)

    by deek ( 22697 ) * on Tuesday December 16, 2003 @08:02AM (#7733365) Homepage Journal

    I've never spent so much on games and game equipment for Christmas. I've bought a Gamecube, Zelda Wind Waker, Super Mario Sunshine, a 251 block memory card and a component cable. It was a smart decision for Nintendo to drop the price of their console. I wouldn't have spent so much otherwise.

  • this is why unqualified percentages are naughty (Score:5, Insightful)

    by *weasel ( 174362 ) on Tuesday December 16, 2003 @09:38AM (#7733831)
    firstly, game sales are not 'down'. the forecast -was- 18% growth, now it's merely 12.5%.

    and they will still enjoying that double digit sales growth, even if another video game isn't sold all year. sales are only 'down from forecasts'. boo hoo. to have continued double digit growth in a time when most consumer markets are down or treading water must be a real bummer.

    and the data is not even all in, nor does this article leverage any data aside from a vague 1-3% stock prices wiggle (which is not part of any trend, nor is it statistically significant) and some subjective measures from off-the-books sources. 'too much inventory', 'not exciting'... this is journalism?

    Vice City set the holiday sales charts on fire last year because it was a great game. but, it could've sold that many copies in the middle of the summer, and then we wouldn't be reading this article.

    imo, i wouldn't say the data is 'not looking too good'. but sensationalist journalism is what makes headlines.

    first, you need is a freelance writer who gets paid only when his articles are published -- not when they're good, and not when they're accurate (Ben Berkowitz). then you need a single 'analyst' willing to go on the record and provide some quotes that can be interpreted as desired, but don't even actually -agree- with the story at hand (one US Bancorp Piper Jaffray analyst Tony Gikas). stir, publish, and congratulations!

    you've churned out a publishable story about a poor holiday season, contrary to all the available evidence.
  • See, I work in a toy store and it's true, there are no big blockbuster games out this season. More parents are buying kids board games, action figures, or dolls. People ARE buying video games, but usually the cheap ones we have. Also, our store personally faired bad on "Green" Friday because the papers didnt put our insert in. So we lost a lot of the holiday business.
  • the "top title at retail" in analyst estimates was EA's Need for Speed Underground, and other top-sellers include True Crime, Tony Hawk's Underground, and GTA Double Pack

    I mean just look at that list.

    • Need for speed and Tony Hawk are just yet another sequel in their series.
    • GTA Double Pack is a port of 2 great games from the most popular console to a lot less popular one.
    • Then there's true crime that I have no idea what it is (and I won't even bother checking).

    I'm not doubting they will sell copies, I

  • Honestly, there are just too many anticipated titles out there. In my game queue right now I have SSX3, Final Fantasy X-2, Simpson's Hit and Run and Knights of the Old Republic.

    I really want to play Tony Hawk Underground but I simply don't have enough time... I don't even have enough time for what I have already.

    Yes a lot of the games are sequels, but games like SSX3 have evolved their gameplay to a point that they are close to being new games.

    All of the consoles have reached a maturity - most of th

  • Is this a suprise? (Score:3, Interesting)

    by duffbeer703 ( 177751 ) * on Tuesday December 16, 2003 @12:03PM (#7735307)
    Look at what's out there...

    You have about 50 really crappy *Tycoon titles, some strategy re-hashes, Casino & card games and a few shooters.

    I know plenty of people still playing Quake 2, because it's entertaining enough. The gaming industry has turned into a mass media, and the quality reflects that. The best thing that could happen to the industry right now is a 1984-style game company meltdown.
  • The cost of PC games has spiraled out of control this year. Battlefield 1942 was a great game and I couldn't wait to get my hands on it. But $70? No thanks. I played the demo and that was it. More and more titles are premiering at the $60 price point which is just way too much for something as relatively unimportant as a computer game. Consoles have been in the $60 range for a couple of years, so maybe they're used to it. I'd also argue that console owners tend to be younger and have more disposable time, s
  • Where the fsck are the games? I'm going to buy a GameCube when Pokemon Colosseum come out, and then perhaps Rebel Strike and Zelda. Where is Colosseum? Nintendo said previously it would be released for Christmas, but now, apparently, I have to wait until March to snag it. [amazon.com]

    Also, where is Halo 2 and Starcraft: Ghost? Both of them were slated to be released by Christmas, but Microsoft pushed Halo 2 back to April [amazon.com], and Blizzard has pushed Ghost to February [amazon.com]. I was really looking forward to Ghost too, just look [blizzard.com]

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