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Doom Forecasted for World of Warcraft 245

Posted by Zonk from the stormwind-aslumber dept.
The ever interesting Grimwell.com has commentary available forecasting doom in the near future for World of Warcraft. Commentator Geldonyetich argues that, by the very nature of the Warcraft game design, the impressive subscription numbers they currently boast are fleeting. From the article: "World of Warcraft is a tremendously successful game. Its subscriber numbers are reaching peaks that threaten even the lofty Korean Internet Café centered Lineage series. Those of you who are stuck behind overloaded servers, don't despair: I can see WoW's success as being a very temporary thing."
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Doom Forecasted for World of Warcraft

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  • World of Warcraft forcasted for DOOM ? Okay, this is filler for the stupid filters

  • Whaaaaaaa?? (Score:5, Funny)

    by jrivar59 ( 146428 ) on Sunday April 03, 2005 @10:21PM (#12130250)
    DOOM and WoW craft together?!?!? I won't leave my house for a month!

  • Not an amazing article (Score:4, Interesting)

    by TychoCelchuuu ( 835690 ) on Sunday April 03, 2005 @10:22PM (#12130254) Journal
    Basically the guy is saying MMORPGs peak and then go down. He also says Diablo II (a completely different game) is similar to WoW in what's going to happen to players. He's probably right about the peaking, but that certainly doesn't mean WoW will die. And Diablo II has no bearing on what happens to WoW, although D2 is still going pretty strong for a game as ancient as it is.
    • DiabloII and Counterstrike are definitely two ancient games that are still cranking out huge numbers of players after being released so long ago. But comparing WoW to Diablo2 is a bit flawed because it's free to play d2. I can just log in and start up a new character on a whim. WoW constantly bills players and when it's time for a player to quit there is no going back without a commitment.
    • yeppers

      SWG is still going on...it hasn't quite died yet, and it peaked..umm..when did it peak again?

      MMO Games that did die: Motor City Online, Earth and Beyond, what else? Oh, a whoile bunch that never got past development. I don't wondner why MCO died, I sometimes wonder why EnB died, and I really wonder why some of the ones that didn't make it out of the gate died.

      I don't play WoW, but there is no chance of it dying this year or next. I'd bet my defunct TSO account on it.

      • Re:Not an amazing article (Score:4, Interesting)

        by llefler ( 184847 ) on Monday April 04, 2005 @02:43PM (#12136125)
        EnB died due to lack of content. I signed up for a trial over a holiday weekend, and it that short period of time I was bored and frustrated by the tedious nature of the game. EnB was: get mission, get in ship, leave dock, jump, gate, jump, jump, jump, gate, kill a few things, gate, jump, jump, jump, gate, jump, dock.

        WoW is different in that it has lots of content and plenty of detail. But after the first month or so the excitement fades and the bugs get annoying. Now that spring is here, I'm considering letting my subscription lapse. I find WoW so exciting right now that I'm reading slashdot instead. One of my friends is so thrilled with WoW, that he's talking about going back to Asheron's Call.

        Since launch I have played 6 different classes, and every profession except Herbalism and Alchemy. And I'm an almost casual player.

        And WoW's customer service wouldn't suck so bad if they didn't have so many bugs to ignore.
    • D2 is still going pretty strong for a game as ancient as it is.

      Agreed.

      Like World of Warcraft, the number of people playing Diablo II could have been counted in the hundreds of thousands. How many do you think are playing it now?

      Judging from the server crawl whenever a patch is released, tens of thousands? That's not too bad I'd say.

      Daniel
    • it will die though when vu goes under or fucks up things even more.

      even more because... well, they lost their chance with me. i got the trial via friend, the trial ended almost 2 months ago.. but since then it has not been possible to BUY the game at all(2nd hand not counting). "you can't buy" marketing sucks so fuck them.

      during this time other of my flatmates has also stopped playing it. can't blame him too much, untill they get their promised patches to make the pvp actually intresting it's pretty borin
      • First, WoW was in short supply because they stopped making it for a while, due to server problems. Better to have no new signups, than to make the server problem worse and piss people off. Now that character transfers are happening, hopefully things will get rolling again.

        Second, playing to 60 is still fun in my book. If you get bored at 60, you can always cancel your account, then reactivate it at a later date to enjoy a bunch of new content (and new patches).

  • I stopped playing (Score:3, Insightful)

    by avalys ( 221114 ) on Sunday April 03, 2005 @10:27PM (#12130282)
    I bought WoW a few weeks ago and loved it, at first. But a few days ago, after reaching level 21, I realized that there really wasn't all that much content in the game. It's just a constant cycle of killing monsters, waiting for your health/mana to recharge, killing some more, and then running for fifteen minutes back to whoever gave you the quest.

    It was fun while it lasted, but eventually you realize there isn't much variety in the gameplay. The scenery changes, and you get to use different spells/weapons, and if you really stick with it you get a horse to ride around, but other than that, nothing ever changes.
    • There's no story? Yeah, I don't know why I'd keep playing that. Sounds like a treadmill. As for making my own story, ahh, no, thank you, I'm paying for entertainment, I don't wanna have to entertain myself.
      • There's no story if you just click past it, as most players do. There's plenty of stuff if you actually read it.
      • Yep. There is a TON of storyline quests. I do mean TON.

        I'd say 80% of the quests ARE storyline based. Yes some aren't, like get my pot fixed...

        But take Darkshire for example:
        There is a quest to explain why there are undead.
        There is a quest to explain why there are worgen.
        There is a quest to explain who Stalvan is.
        There is a quest to explain who MorLadim is.
        There is a quest to explain who Abercrombie is.
        There is a quest to explain who MorbentFel is.

        Sure, many just give you notes or books to read - and if

    • Re:I stopped playing (Score:3, Interesting)

      by ziggles ( 246540 )
      Hi, welcome to video games.

      Either you like the gameplay or you don't. I really don't see the point in complaining about a lack of variety, since 99% of games have very little gameplay variety.

      Different spells/weapons require different strategies. I started off as a mage specializing in fire talents. When I reached level 40 I switched to frost talents, and 5 levels later I still don't quite have my new strategies down pat.

      Though, I probably never will get it down. I really enjoy the game when I get to

    • Re:I stopped playing (Score:3, Insightful)

      by DiSKiLLeR ( 17651 )
      LOL sounds like me!

      I bought WoW, played it for about 2 weeks... got a Level 19 Human Warrior and Level 21 Night Elf Druid, and am bored of it already....

      Its just pointless killing and running for 20 minutes to turn quests back in. God i hate running. I can't even be bothered waiting to level 40 and saving up 100 gold to get a horse to ride on.

      I rather just play something more fun... something that feels less like work!

      D.

    • Re:I stopped playing (Score:5, Interesting)

      by Forager ( 144256 ) on Sunday April 03, 2005 @10:48PM (#12130406) Homepage
      For what it's worth, depending on what class you played, the game doesn't really "start" until a bit later.

      I have a hunter, a rogue, and a priest that I play regularly - for my hunter, 30 was where it got really interesting; for my rogue it was 20; for my priest ... well, i'm still waiting on that one, and she's 21 right now.

      My roomates and I were discussing it the other night, and basically came up with this:

      Levels 1-10 are training. They're the turorial levels, where you learn how MMOs work, the basic mechanics and all.

      Levels 11-20 are advanced training. Class-specific stuff starts popping up, basic grouping and instances, that sort of thing.

      Levels 21-30 are when the training wheels come off. Around 25ish, depending on class, tons of zones open up for you, and you get a much better feel for the world. If 11-20 is High School, this is the college phase of the game.

      31-40 are the first red meat you get. Lots of quests, lots of instances, lots of stuff to do and see. Most of the world is open to you now. This is when you should be joining a guild, learning to PVP, etc.

      41-50 is endurance. Sadly, this is the most painful part. I almost quit, myself, around level 47 or so. At 40-41, you just got your mount, and by god you'll need it. Be ready to spend lots of time traveling - FedEx quests, lots of grinding, etc are the norm here.

      51-56 is where you learn that you are pretty weak on your own. Sure, you can grind out those levels, if you want to, but soloing is much tougher, and the options for where to go are pretty limited.

      57-60 are the final meat of the game. Scholomance, Stratholme, BRD, LBRS, UBRS, etc. Sadly, this is also where the fun starts to taper off. After a few days you realize this is all you've got left, except maybe runs against Onyxia, MC, Azuregos, and Kazzak. And, of course, farming set gear and epics =\

      If your account is still active, you might want to try making it to 30 or so. You might find that the interest level picks up quite a bit from there.

      Cheers to ya,

      -A.
      • From your description it sounds like the only fun is had in the 31-40 range! Games these days are becoming more like jobs... and why not: People are already programmed to do monotonous jobs from school. The game industry is smart to tap into that.

        • Re:I stopped playing (Score:2, Informative)

          by Forager ( 144256 )
          Actually, what I was trying to say is that ~25-40 is a lot of fun, and 50-60 can be a lot of fun if you have a good guild. I miscommunicated that last part a bit, though; I wanted to say that 50-60 can be a lot of fun with the right guild, but if you have to solo it or do it in pickup groups, it can be quite boring and frustrating.
          • It depends on your 'ultimate goal' in WoW.

            Some people just like to 'progress' the character.

            Which means that once they get to 60, they just don't feel like playing. Because there is no 61, and because getting a full set of class armor is difficult without a guild. These 'soloers' usualy just start another class, or quit.

            The other group which I fall into is ex-EQers who rush to 60, caring little for everything pre 60, form guilds and get to raiding.

            I do NOT care about my character. Yes I have amazing gea
            • WOW, nor any MMORPG, can be fun unless you care about the people you play with. You simply cannot have fun in WoW alone.

              I'm unguilded and I have a lot of fun. My gear is Uber, and I have more money because I don't have to share anything with guildmates. Many people think the quickest way to level is to "join a guild" which I've done with some of my alts. I've found that teaming up with guildies and doing instance runs actually takes longer and gives less than its worth. You can get better gear from r
              • JavaLord, the 'uber' gear simply cannot be bought in the AH. Good guilds do NOT have "ninja" problems because they have trust or DKP systems.

                We run all our raids on FFA, yet we have never had any item ninjaed, not even in MC.

                I suppose it really depends on the kind of guild you are in. Our guild was formed by people leaving a guild that they were not happy in.

                For the 3 months that our guild has been running, only 2 people left.

                I do not intend to go yell "PLAY MY WAY", but I dare say that I think you're r

                • Re:I stopped playing (Score:3, Interesting)

                  by JavaLord ( 680960 )
                  JavaLord, the 'uber' gear simply cannot be bought in the AH.

                  FileNotFound, the weapon I am currently using I have been using since level 44. Kang the Decapitator

                  Which item would have been more 'uber' at my level? I don't see people even from the top clans running around with that kind of gear at my level. I believe I made my money because I didn't have to sacrifice my tradeskills, greens, or blues for "the good of the guild".

                  I realize that some of the highest level gear, (IE the sword of hanna)
            • There's group 3- the group that hates character progression, hates raiding, but loves PvP. WoW PvP is a hell of a lot of fun. I could care less if I ever get to fight Onyxia or Ragnaros- spending 10 hours over 2 days to get to the end of MC sounds like slightly less fun than a root canal. Going around fighting for control of zones is fun.

              I love it when Azuergos and Kazzak spawn. Not because I fight them- with a 1/40 chance of winning a piece of loot, and the loot likely being poor for my class, it i
    • Well you probably won't like any MMORPGs anyway, so your case doesn't prove him right.
    • Yes, you sometimes kill mobs, you sometimes find things, you sometimes do a lot of things. Up to that level, most of the quests tend to be simpler. My character, a Warlock, has gained new summons every 10 levels (Voidwalker at 10 and Sucubus at level 20, via related quests).

      Really, World of Wacraft is Warcraft 3 in a really important sense -- you play as a hero from Warcraft 3. You are directly involved in the game at the lowest level. You don't worry about managing towns or groups, you worry about man
    • I bought WoW a few weeks ago and loved it, at first. But a few days ago, after reaching level 21, I realized that there really wasn't all that much content in the game.

      Huh? WoW has quite a bit of content, the number of quests are mind boggling and vary in what you must do. It's just a constant cycle of killing monsters, waiting for your health/mana to recharge, killing some more, and then running for fifteen minutes back to whoever gave you the quest.

      While there are usually a few "Kill x amount of

    • HA, kids these days got no discipline. (Score:5, Funny)

      by SmallFurryCreature ( 593017 ) on Monday April 04, 2005 @01:26PM (#12135271) Journal
      When I was a young hopefull we had no fancy smancy WoW, we had SWG and we liked it.

      Talk about grinding? HA. We had to grind random jobs AND PAY people to be allowed to teach them. Then as soon as you became a master and actually could do anything usefull you had to unlearn everything you worked so hard on learning to make room for the next profession.

      Content you say? Tired of running? Why I can still remember having to do the exact same run 6 times through the most hostile planets in the universe JUST to be allowed to open up the option to make a lethal run dozens of times to turn hard earned combat experience into force experience at a conversion rate that would shock banks at airports.

      Pfff, you guys don't know how good you have it.

  • FFXI's figures are from last freaking year (Score:2, Interesting)

    by Anonymous Coward
    Their subscription went up and stayed up consistently. In the case of Everquest, it may have been due to it being there at the right time, but Final Fantasy XI has no such excuse.

    Yeah, sure. Except that Everquest is now compacting their servers [slashdot.org], and both EQ and FFXI hasn't bothered updating their figures for the past six months. Why? Well, based on what I've heard from people who still play FFXI, it may be because the total people playing was decreased by about half... Don't know about EQ, but it look
    • I can't really comment on how many people are playing FFXI but it did take a hit around the time WoW came out. However, the last month and a half has shown a lot of players returning to the game, along with new players that have not played before. One of my linkshell meembers thinks they might be people who waited for WoW and have now decided to give FFXI a try.

      While I only see around 2,500 people on my server where I normally saw 3,000, there are always people on doing things.

    • "Well, based on what I've heard from people who still play FFXI, it may be because the total people playing was decreased by about half... "

      I wish! Or are the people that left FFXI the ones that didn't seem to spend all freakin' day on Jeuno?

      Seriously, Square-Enix needs to introduce some sort of Black Plague into the place to kill off anybody who spends more time in that overcrowded hellhole than is necessary to pass through on to points elsewhere.

  • Doomed because it's not "epic" (Score:5, Interesting)

    by Drakino ( 10965 ) on Sunday April 03, 2005 @10:27PM (#12130286) Journal
    This guy seems to think WoW is doomed because it is not "epic" enough.

    A MMORPG cannot just be a game: When you start charging a subscription, you're promising it to be more than that. It has to genuinely interest players in investing time in it for meaningfully compelling reasons. World of Warcraft is far too trivialized, it's evident in the quick grind, the artificial world, and the punch-out trade skill system. World of Warcraft, in matching casual friendly (even console-game like) design expectations, is simply not built to last as a top 5 MMORPG.

    In other words, he believes that due to the fact that WoW is simple and easy to pick up, and doesn't have tedious things like trade skills of old EQ, this will somehow drive people away. How someone can think a grind in a game is a good thing is beyond me. EQ1 subscription numbers are now dropping quickly, even with a new "epic" expansion filled with yet more content accessable to uber guilds only. I would dare say the players in EQ1 in the last year were simply their due to the social experience with their uber guilds, as much better games have since come out.

    I see WoWs success in another way. The game is simple, easy to learn and thus people are enjoying themselves. Friends are having a much easier time convincing someone to play WoW over other games. There isn't any talk about the problems of old EQ1 when WoW comes up, like the 15-30 minutes of downtime EQ1 used to have to regenerate health. Since WoW is so easy to get into, people are more tempted to run a character to 60, then try a completly different race. The diversity in the game is quite nice.

    Only time will tell though. So far, it seems the server issues haven't scared off a noticible amount of people. And for many, the server issues are their only complaint with the game.
    • it never ceases to amaze me how many people yearn for the grinding days of yore...

    • Re:Doomed because it's not "epic" (Score:5, Insightful)

      by Anonymous Coward on Monday April 04, 2005 @12:32PM (#12134710)
      In other words, he believes that due to the fact that WoW is simple and easy to pick up, and doesn't have tedious things like trade skills of old EQ
      - That couldn't be farther from the truth.

      IMO, WoW designers made a game that isolates the "hardcore" from the "casual".

      On the surface, casual Joe doesn't see the insane grinds that are in the game. And the same time hardcore John can grind away to get extra items. Since WoW is a very item centric game, hardcore John is perfectly at home, gaining more power for his avatar as he grinds away. Same time, casual Joe also gains power while doing many non grind quests and dungeons, hell even small raids.

      I challenge anyone to come post with a straight face that there are no grinds in WoW. There is plenty:
      - Argent Dawn, Thorium Brotherhood, Timbermaw, Cenarion, and other race faction grinds.
      - High end tradeskill recipe grind: Arcane Crystals, Azerothian Diamonds, Dark Iron ore, Frayed Abomination Stiching and other rare gems/items.
      - Grinds to get elusive world drops: Brainhacker, Destiny, Hurricane, and others.
      - Grinds to get very rare dungeon drops: Runeblade of Baron Rivendare, patterns to epic caster robes, plans for epic craftskill recipes, plans for very rare but powerful craftskill items (Arcanite Reaper), epic quest items (Chromatic Carapace) and so on.
      - Grind to be able to afford epic mount.

      WoW has a lot grinding in it. Everyone who says the opposite hasn't played much high end.

      Blizzard efficiently threw a smoke screen infront of casual Joe, casual Joe goes and clears a dungeon once a week, gets a few nice items, his character progresses and he is happy. Same time, hardcore John has myriads of grinds to keep him occupied. And if that isn't enough, he has still PvP, Upper Blackrock Spire, Molten Core and Onyxia.

      Even Blizzard said it, the game starts at level 60. Plenty of things to do for everyone. And with content being added (hopefuly a more frequent basis), there will be many more things to do. So this modern Nostradamus fellow from Grimwell will be proven dead wrong because he obviously has no clue about WoW, or he wouldn't have spewed garbage like WoW is only for casual gamers.

      • "Same time, hardcore John has myriads of grinds to keep him occupied. And if that isn't enough, he has still PvP, Upper Blackrock Spire, Molten Core and Onyxia."

        That "myriad" isn't big enough. I've run Upper Blackrock Spire probably... thirty times since the first UBRS run on my server. Stratholme... fifteen times, Scholomance, maybe three times, Onyxia ten times... How many times am I supposed to run them? They're only really fun the first few times!

        So I've run UBRS 40 times. I swear to you there wil
    • Since WoW is so easy to get into, people are more tempted to run a character to 60, then try a completly different race

      People say it's not 'epic' because it's not tedious like older MMORPGS. It still takes time to get to 60. If you are a casual player (by casual I mean 10-20 hours a week) it will take you 3-4 months at least. If you look at the online forums you can see this. Sure there are stories of people going for an 'all out grind' and doing it in 2 weeks, but for the majority of people, it's n

  • My summary... (Score:5, Interesting)

    by QuantumG ( 50515 ) <qg@biodome.org> on Sunday April 03, 2005 @10:29PM (#12130290) Homepage Journal
    People play WoW because it has unique and novel gameplay. When the gameplay is no longer novel people will get bored and leave (instead of hanging around and socialising, as they do in other MMORPGs, because the game isn't accomidating to that). When other games come along which have similar gameplay people will leave to play them instead.

    Of course, all this assumes that the current state of WoW is the final state of it. Surely once WoW's numbers start going down they'll modify the game to make it more accomidating to socialisers (it's not hard). As for people leaving for greener pastures, can anything stop that?

    It's interesting to think of other MMOGs and Geldonyetich's three categories. Think about The Matrix Online (TMO). It's definitely in category three, so what's going to keep people around when the novelty of the gameplay wears off? I think the answer is story.. TMO is one of the few games where paid actors actually direct the gameplay.

    Of course, I generally stop playing MMOGs in category three for a completely different reason: they get too hard. I find this especially annoying in single player games which have good story (like Simpsons: Hit & Run). Why do they have to keep making it harder? I don't want a "challenge" I want to have *fun*. I guess this is also the reason behind the popularity of cheat codes. With that in mind, I think the worst thing you can do in a MMOG is force people to take harder mission/quests. Just give me the option of Easy/Intermediate/Hard missions and I'll pick the level of challenge I feel up to today.

    • Re:My summary... (Score:3, Insightful)

      by Lord_Dweomer ( 648696 )
      " People play WoW because it has unique and novel gameplay."

      I hardly thing WoW is unique and novel. I mean, its clean and well done, just like a Blizzard game should be, but lets not kid ourselves. The reason WoW is successful is because it is the new player, they took all the successful bits of other games, mashed them all together, and gave it the Blizzard Spitshine(tm).

      I personally think we'll start seeing real innovation not in the MMORPG segment, but the MMOFPS, and eventually I think we'll see se

      • Heh, I was once considering how hard it would be to make a game input device where you had realtime control over your character's movement. Just for argument sake, let's say you had your own motion capture studio at home (this isn't too hard to imagine, the technology to capture motion data from unaligned webcam-type devices is available now, just not in realtime). Ok, so imagine you have 3 floats for each joint. There's neck, l&r shoulder, l&r elbow, l&r wrist, pelvis, l&r leg, l&r k

  • I have to totally disagree with this article. (Score:5, Interesting)

    by Sandman1971 ( 516283 ) on Sunday April 03, 2005 @10:35PM (#12130321) Homepage Journal
    Yes, I've RTFA, and I am a WoW player, and I totally disagree with this article.

    World of Warcraft has quite a few things going for it. It has a rich history of 3 amazing games, and its this history that has introduced the MMORPG genre to gamers who would have previously not given it a second glance. Most of the people I've spoken with that fall in this category are not planning on leaving WoW any time soon. From this type of gamer's prospective, it allows a micro view of the previous games; building your character instead of building towns and armies, but without losing too much of the original games.

    From an MMORPG player prospective, this game offers what many other MMORPGs have strived to do; have a great and interesting quest system that's not too repetitive. I played CoH and quit after a couple of months because as interesting as the concept of that game weas, the quest system was purely repetitive; something I have yet to experience in the 5 months I've been playing WoW.

    Another great aspect of WoW is that if you prefer playing alone, you can. If you prefer playing in groups you can. You can hunt and level by your lonesome, even attempt dungeon quests by yourself. Something that lacked in AO. If you prefer playing in a group, WoW has one of the best and fairest party systems that I've seen (and I've played about 7 MMORPGs dating back to the launch of Asheron's Call).

    Will Wow's numbers go down? Most probably. All North American/European MMORPGs suffer from this. But it's my personal opnion that it will be on top of the MMORPG list for quite a while.
    • Ya know, people wouldn't leave for the reasons Geldonyetich states if they were actually doing what RPGs are for: discovering their identity. Unfortunately WoW doesn't encourage this kind of gameplay. It's certainly possible though, and players who actually role play their character and introspect their thoughts and feelings about the strange situations they get their character into will not only stay in the game longer, they'll get more out of it too. Now if only WoW could be built to encourage this ki

    • I played CoH and quit after a couple of months because as interesting as the concept of that game weas, the quest system was purely repetitive; something I have yet to experience in the 5 months I've been playing WoW.

      I *just* logged off of WoW to read this article--I have a 24 lvl 'lock, and a new 12 lvl Warrior. Maybe neither are high enough to reach the interesting bits, but I am finding a really depressing amount of repetition: get the quest, kill the mobs, wait to regen, run back and turn in the qu

      • Re:I have to totally disagree with this article. (Score:5, Interesting)

        by meta-monkey ( 321000 ) on Monday April 04, 2005 @02:50AM (#12131418) Journal
        I'm a lvl 60 hunter with my full class set and pretty much everything you can possibly get in the game outside of Molten Core and Onyxia. I've done MC and Onyxia, I just don't have all my loot from there yet...and I don't think it's even really possible to ever get it all until they get rid of the raid timers, but that's another post...

        I still find the game fun. levels 1-60 were okay. It was interesting discovering new lands, seeing new monsters and doing new quests. Many of the later quests, especially those that revolve around instances, do have a much greater emphasis on story.

        However, what you'll discover is that the game doesn't really start until level 60. That's when you start PvPing like crazy...well, only really if you're on a PvP server. Absolutely DO NOT roll on a PvE server. If you're on one now with your level 20s, delete them and roll PvP (come to Laughing Skull! It's glorious!). Here's where you get all the drama. Join a good guild, make some friends, and grief the hell out of other players, both on the other faction and your own. Get the uber loot.

        I don't think Blizzard is dumb. They realized how easy it was to get to level 60. They understand that people need things to keep them constantly entertained...and that thing is PvP. Once they roll out the honor system and battlegrounds, I think WoW is going to take off forever. That's how people will make their own content...horde vs alliance, guild vs. guild, with all the drama and board smack talk you can imagine...that's where it's at.

        Anyway, point is, roll PvP and stick it out. WoW is awesome.

        • Re:I have to totally disagree with this article. (Score:4, Insightful)

          by Rayonic ( 462789 ) on Monday April 04, 2005 @10:05AM (#12133316) Homepage Journal
          Join a good guild, make some friends, and grief the hell out of other players, both on the other faction and your own.

          That's what I love about PvP servers -- they act like griefer magnets. Thus letting the more sensible players enjoy their PvE servers in peace.

          Now, I do enjoy player versus player combat, but I like to decide how and when I want it. There are still plenty of town raids, and remember that we'll be getting the honor system and Battlegrounds also. But I like the ability to enjoy the content of the game, sans-griefing-assholes.

      • Re:I have to totally disagree with this article. (Score:5, Interesting)

        by elrond1999 ( 88166 ) on Monday April 04, 2005 @04:17AM (#12131722)
        Look, if you find the quests boring, cant stand to Party with anyone else and dont engage in Guild / Raid, then yes I can you get bored rather quick. Wow shouldn't be about racing to lvl 60 in a long solo grind. If you don't enjoy the journey to the higher levels then you won't stay very long.

        About the Qs being repetitive, yes on the surface they are. However if you actually bother to read them and not just skim to the objectives/rewards, you will get some entertaining stories. I think Blizzard made the Qs like this so that they are easy to understand, if they were more diverse the chat channels would flood with questions and thottbot would crash..

  • Tripe (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Wylfing ( 144940 ) <brian&wylfing,net> on Sunday April 03, 2005 @10:36PM (#12130334) Homepage Journal
    This guy apparently thinks Diablo II lacks long-term appeal as a game. Hit this guy with a cluestick. Diablo II, a 6-year-old game, is still occupying a lot of shelf space in stores and still selling far above bargain bin price. The only other game that has this much longevity is Counter-Strike.

    Yes, poor, poor Blizzard. They have a "failure" on their hands just like Diablo II.

    • I must say, the whole article sounds a lot like sour grapes. He's predicting the fall of the MMPORPG that burst onto the scene and captured more players than all other MMPORPG's combined in less than three months. And why the fall? Because, the theory goes, games that are easy and fun to get into must not have a lot going for the hardcore player. So, like Diablo, World of Warcraft will be a flash in the pan compared to deeper games with richer gameplay like, erm, Everquest. Right. Deep gameplay, that
    • Don't forget that it took EverQuest six years before they did their first server consolidations. The only reason that happened is because of the entry of several new (and arguably better) MMOGs to the market, and I suspect that WoW won't see significant declines in the playerbase at least until the next generation of alternatives creeps up.

      Now, if Blizzard releases zero new content from here on out, I can see bad things happening (SOE released numerous expansions for EQ, keeping veteran players interested
    • Another game still selling at most stores (including Walmart that does not stock anything that does not sell) is Doom 2. Amazing to me that game is still on shelves. I played it for 500+ hours back in the day (1994 - 95). That people are still discovering the game TEN years later and paying to enjoy it is really amazing.

      WoW could last a long while. Certainly not with millions of subscribers, but a lot. If Doom 2 is a great game and lasts 10 years with almost no new content, then WoW is a great ga

  • Socialization (Score:3, Insightful)

    by Datasage ( 214357 ) <DatasageNO@SPAMtheworldisgrey.com> on Sunday April 03, 2005 @10:37PM (#12130342) Homepage Journal
    I wouldnt say socialization does not exist in the game. The only reason i joined was because i had friends who also play, and well its rather fun to cooperate with and compete against them.

    If I didnt have friends in the game, I would not last very long. I do agree, the machanics are too much like diablo 2 and after beating that once I lost intrest.

    But i do think there needs to be more reason to group. There are raids, but those are generally only avialable to high level players.
    • There are plenty of reasons to group. Sometimes its pretty much necessary (like Gnomeregan, and other dungeon based quests/Elite quests). There's also always someone around to lend a hand, or join a party. Then there's Guilds. Sure there are crappy guilds out there, but there are also great ones, when you either just feel like chatting, need help, or want to offer help. There's a slew of in-game friends to be made. The whole thing about MMORPGs is that it's the players who make it fun. If you want to socia
    • If it hadn't been for my friends, I wouldn't have boought the game. Even if I had, I wouldn't have made it past about level 10.

      I've almost stalled completely three times. Each time I've needed serious help and a lot of Thottbotting to get over the hump. At times the game has felt like work. I've got friends who are level 60 now, my highest is 45. Good for me, I get more help now they're maxed. Bad for them, stuff is starting to look very tedious. Alts are being dusted off, people are considering what

  • Well if a random person on the internet is forecasting the doom of something extremely popular it MUST be true. While we are at it, iPods will go out of style, the Apprentice will get cancelled eventually, and gas prices will rises!!! Boogity boogity, fear my psychic powers!

  • Something missing from the article (Score:3, Informative)

    by ildon ( 413912 ) on Sunday April 03, 2005 @11:04PM (#12130491)
    One of the things a lot of players who left EQ for WoW complain about is the fact that the end game appears to them to be a carbon copy of the EQ-style raid system, only now it's instanced. This very complaint, however, is what sets WoW apart from Planetside and City of Heroes. Neither of those two games has this EQ-like raid endgame, which forces the type of social interaction that EQ did. Just looking at my own server, Shattered Hand, I can see this reflected. The Alliance guilds are all large EQ-style guilds, while the Horde guilds tend to be smaller, loosely bound "FPS-clan-like" guilds. They have enough people to do everything up until the raid content, and there they fall apart.

    Basically, the opportunity is there for the EQ-like guilds and systems, but WoW has managed to draw both types of gamers, the FPS-type, "flavor of the month" gamer, and the MMORPG-type "hardcore", "play the same game for 10 years" gamer.

    There is room for conversion though, and while there will obviously be a dip as the "flavor of the month" gamers leave, it has yet to be seen what the conversion rate will be. A friend of mine was a FPS-type gamer, playing whatever was new for a few month or two and moving on, and when he said he was going to play WoW I didn't expect him to stay longer than a month or two. But he's still around and still interesting in new things to do in WoW. As long as there is something new for him to do, or some item he would like to aquire that is nearly in his grasp, he will probably keep playing it seems.

    I believe Battle Grounds is tailor made for these types of players. The type of player who just hops on a Counter-strike public server for a few hours and shoots some people up. Once WoW is "finished", it will have something to do for both the EQ-style and FPS-style player.
  • Obviously the author Geldonyetich has not investigated the origins of World of Warcraft too much.

    Unlike all these other "Casual Gamer" friendly MMO that Geldonyetich is quick to point out such as City of Heroes and Planetside, WoW is built upon 10 years of development of the entire Warcraft Universe. This is a genre within itself and one which Blizzard has heavily invested in to create a rich history - including art books and detailed stories that have been previously revealed in the strategy games (the

  • No way, MMOGs are just beginning (Score:3, Interesting)

    by CrazyJim1 ( 809850 ) on Sunday April 03, 2005 @11:23PM (#12130589) Journal
    I forecast 10 million+ subscribers once MMOGS become truly fun. Blizzard is notorious for storylines and wanting to make comic and culture for their Warcraft series. No doubt with the extra cash they'll be able to guide their MMOG to be more in depth.

    The day they bring an action orient game like Zelda or Tekken into a massive world filled with a good progression, that will be the day all the other MMOGs fail. People like to meet and adventure with friends in fantasy worlds, they're not going to drop that.

    Its like the atari 2600 debacle. People thought atari was the end of a fad. Its the SAME EXACT THING. MMORPGS imho suck. I wanted to write one in the early 90s, for a lot of reasons. Most of the cool things I envision in MMORPGS haven't been done yet. Try forcing yourself to play the atari 2600 when you know nintendo is coming over the horizon. Its friggin tough man, makes you almost want to program games yourself, and thats a whole lot of work.
  • This guy sure likes to run around in circles before getting to the point, and then finally there's not much of a point.
  • I bought the game when it came out. And she's dying for me to quit it.

  • The real reason why WoW is going to fail is that it is far too easy to reach the top tier playing level, and the endgame has very little meaning. It consists primarily of grinding dungeouns for items, specifically class set items. Once you hit lvl 60, and have all of your set items, it is essentially the end of personal achievement. When all of that, which can be tedious and a cause of mass whining, is done, there is little motivation to continue on... other than helping your friends get their stuff.

    So

    • The real reason why WoW is going to fail is that it is far too easy to reach the top tier playing level, and the endgame has very little meaning.

      Lvl 56 Orc Hunter Silvermoon,

      I agree completely. Our talent trees are locked and finite, and we feel like one faceless soldier in a very large army of other 'lvl 60' folks.

      WoW is the first MMOG to try and blend the successful gameplay of counter-strike and everquest into the same game. Their next patch called 'battlegrounds' is probably more important than th
      • Comment removed based on user account deletion
      • WoW is the first MMOG to try and blend the successful gameplay of counter-strike and everquest into the same game. [...]. If they do it right...the could dramatically revitalize the game, if they do it wrong WoW will likely fade into history as another MMORPG that failed to execute on a good idea.

        Good statement, but about the wrong game:
        Neocron did this much earlier, creating a MMORPG with strong FPS element. Unfortunately, they are also in danger of fading into history as another MMORPG that failed to ex
      • Yeah, again I agree completely. Reaching 60 is very anticlimactic because it means moster xp is now useless. Spending 6 hours in an instance dungeon hoping for a drop isn't enough to keep most people playing.

        If bored, you can always cancel your account until Battlegrounds get released. Then simply reactivate and try out your old characters in the new content. (Blizzard has no plans on deleting accounts after cancellation.)
      • First let me introduce myself:
        Morkal - 60 Hunter, Officer of Keepers of the Keg (www.kegkeepers.org).

        Having played a hunter since beta, I can firmly say that we are the most 'distinct' class in the game - sadly with the most problems also.

        Frankly getting to 60 was VERY easy - at least compared to EQ, AO or AC.

        At 60 you NEED to be in a guild. It's that simple. If you are not - you will NOT be happy. You need to be in a good and social guild that is filled with likeminded people.

        If you are not in a guild,

  • Justification for his EQ2 purchase? (Score:4, Insightful)

    by drekmonger ( 251210 ) on Monday April 04, 2005 @12:13AM (#12130819)
    Article sounds like the author is trying to convince himself that he picked the right horse.

    Nothing to see here.

  • Change (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Sheepdot ( 211478 ) on Monday April 04, 2005 @12:26AM (#12130879) Journal
    It all comes down to change. MMORPGs lack change. Even in the newer generation games, there's nothing going on that begs for players to get involved. Pen and paper RPGs still reign supreme in the area of an evolving storyline.

    In WoW, the same thing that happened yesterday is going to happen today. There no mission you are going to do that someone hasn't already done twice.

    Games like Asheron's Call were so huge that, at least for a while, the idea that you were the first person to travel to a new area was still there. You could approach some remote location and find a tower, mountain, or valley that no one had ever been to.

    The devs would add new monsters and npcs every month or two. It revolutionized the way players actually played the game. Reports would come in, via the game, about a new mob attacking one of the towns, and then you could go there and actually find/see it.

    MxO looks to be the only game that might have a player-driven storyline. Unfortunately, the game is buggy as hell, and won't be going anywhere for a while till they get those issues resolved.
    • MxO is not "buggy as hell". Every review of MxO has been from the beta. Besides which, MxO will not make a player-driven storyline. In fact, exactly the opposite, the story line will be driven by actors playing the main characters of the 3 films who will be following a script written by the Wachowski brothers. How fast they will put out new content is anyone's guess, but personally I think there won't be any "new monsters" in MxO, the plot line will be driven by the existing "cast" and the players will
  • The game is always growing with new features, contents, etc. I highly doubt the game will be doomed. Maybe in five years or more, but not any time soon. The game is great. Yes, there have been some technical problems, but that is because the game is way too popular with the demands. It could had been a lot worse if Blizzard didn't the stress tests and beta tests.

  • Can't argue (Score:3, Interesting)

    by Anonymous Coward on Monday April 04, 2005 @04:02AM (#12131665)
    I agree with the main thrust of this article. I've been playing MMORPGs for a while now (mainly FFXI, but also a couple of the older titles) and after a couple of month's play (one solid month when it came out, a bit here and there since then) I see no way that WoW can sustain its player numbers.

    Don't get me wrong, it's a game that does a lot right. I've never before seen a MMORPG that made it so easy for new players to get started and get caught up in the game from day 1. Well... assuming they didn't spend day 1 trying to get into either the registration or game servers. There are dozens, maybe even of hundreds, of quests that you can get done at a very low level. They're not all Fed-Ex quests either; quite a few of them involve fighting "unique" monsters or exploring regions. MMORPGs have traditionally been rubbish at inducting new players. FFXI is, I must admit, one of the worst offenders, as unless you have some higher-level friends already in the game, getting started in it is basically an utter nightmare (I started out alone myself and took months to find my feet, but have since inducted three of my real life friends). WoW hammers the competition into the ground at this point. I was able to start exploring, fighting, questing, crafting and doing everything else I can do in other MMORPGs within a few hours of starting.

    However, the problem is that I've not found much else to do since then. By the time you hit level 30, it's pretty clear that the game shows you all its significant content up-front and doesn't keep much in reserve for later. Exploring new zones is fine for a while, but they all start to blur eventually and exploration is made unnecessarily tedious by an utterly brain-dead aggro system, which means that even mobs many, many levels below your own will attack you if they see you. While the quests seem varied at first, a few basic templates become apparent fairly quickly. The quests aren't even particularly long or challenging. There are no real equivalents of FFXI's Artifact or Level-Cap quests. While this could be seen as a good thing (let's face it, those quests can be annoying as hell), it does mean you have relatively few chances to spend significant amounts of time grouping with people.

    Indeed, the social aspects of WoW are among the weakest. I don't mind playing a MMORPG where you can level-grind solo, but I'll always prefer a situation where grouping brings advantages. Except at the very top levels of WoW (where there's not much left to do anyway), this just doesn't happen. Even as a Mage, the fastest way for me to level up was to run around on my own killing things. Of course, I'd need to find groups for a few of the quests, but this just exposed more weaknesses in WoW. Simply put, the actual infrastructure in place to support the game's social aspects SUCK beyond belief. After being used to FFXI's search and trading functions, WoW was like going back to the dark ages. The upshot of this is that much of your time playing WoW is spent running around solo. To be honest, I could get this from Neverwinter Nights with no monthly fee.

    I'll admit that I effectively gave up on the game before reaching 60. However, a large factor in this was that I'd reached a point where I had some degree of sight into the end-game content and I realised how little there was. Simply put, when you hit 60, it's more or less time to start a new character. I'll admit that FFXI perhaps goes too far the other way here; the length of time required to hunt Higher-Notorious-Monsters, complete the Zilart missions and, most of all, get a fully upgraded relic weapon is obscene. However, this does provide something to do once you reach the end of the level-grind and it's a good incentive to keep playing. Moreover, the rate of content addition to WoW has been pitiful. I know there's a big content patch planned for later this year, but to be frank, with a MMORPG, these patches need to be every couple of months; not every year or so.

    I'd predict that in the long term, WoW will level out at about

    • Re:Can't argue (Score:3, Insightful)

      by Cryect ( 603197 )
      "exploration is made unnecessarily tedious by an utterly brain-dead aggro system, which means that even mobs many, many levels below your own will attack you if they see you"

      Ehh??? Mobs 5 levels or more below you are pretty hard to aggro unless you walk on top of them.

      "Indeed, the social aspects of WoW are among the weakest. I don't mind playing a MMORPG where you can level-grind solo, but I'll always prefer a situation where grouping brings advantages. Except at the very top levels of WoW (where there's

  • Guild Wars is the doom foretold (Score:3, Informative)

    by Squiggle ( 8721 ) on Monday April 04, 2005 @04:07AM (#12131687)
    The article only has it half right. The real reason why MMORPGs will have subscription issues is because of http://guildwars.com/ [guildwars.com].

    The "casual friendly slayers" mentioned in the article are going to love Guild Wars (GW) and since there is no subscription fee the company (ArenaNet) doesn't lose out when they stop playing after a few months.

    GW also has incredible and accessible PvP which is the only content that doesn't turn into grind (given a large enough community).

    Personally, I'm sick of MMORPG companies monthly milking of their customers. Stretching out 60-80 hours of content into 400 hours is akin to watching a movie that repeats each scene five times... and you have to pay to keep watching.

    GW is out on April 28th, once the word spreads about the true casual friendly play, lack of griefing, combined with the best fantasy PvP available... all using a pay for new content (expansions) model instead of a monthly subscription I hope it forces it's competitors to start treating their customers less like cash cows.
    • Personally, I'm sick of MMORPG companies monthly milking of their customers. Stretching out 60-80 hours of content into 400 hours is akin to watching a movie that repeats each scene five times... and you have to pay to keep watching.

      1) Sell a lifetime membership to an online service with a huge server farm that requires constant maintenance and expensive upgrades and for a mere $50.

      2) ???

      3) Profit!!

      -Eric

  • Flawed conclusions based on inaccurate observation (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Quarters ( 18322 ) on Monday April 04, 2005 @08:56AM (#12132710)
    I almost didn't continue reading the article after the author invented his own three sub-genres of MMOs in an attempt to rationalize a conclusion he had obviously reached before conducting his studies. But, I read on.

    Total waste of time...

    He classifies WoW as a "slasher" (one of his designations) along with EQ and some others. He then goes on to say that slasher games don't last long in the market place, ergo WoW will fail soon. He ignores the fact that EQ is still running and relatively viable even 8-9 years after it's release.

    His worst error, though, is in picking two games, seemingly at random (CoH and Planetside), saying that WoW is just like both of them and that since their historical subscriber #s showed an inital peak and then a drop-off WoW's #s would behave in the same manner.

    That hypothesis is so wrong for so many reasons: * Planetside isn't an RPG, it's an FPS. * CoH is lacking in a # of important areas for player rentention. The most glaring one is the lack of loot acquisition, something WoW has in spades * Just like in the stock market past performance of #s is not indication whatsoever of future performance.

  • does that mean Iron Forge won't be so dang laggy?

  • Hang in there everybody (Score:4, Funny)

    by funkify ( 749441 ) on Monday April 04, 2005 @12:59PM (#12134972)
    I'm a level 148 Berserk Troll Snotgurgle, and let me tell you, the game doesn't even get started until you get past level 120! Not until you've lost your job, your car, and your family does it really get interesting! Now that, my comrades, is some heavy ass epic shite!

    At about level 120 (or perhaps much, much sooner for some of you), you'll find that your life in Warcraft has snowballed far beyond that of your own. Just make sure you are able to steal enough from your roommates to make the light bill, and pray that your next door neighbor doesn't secure her wireless connection anytime soon!

    You will also notice that other quests emerge in the comfort of your own home... seeing your own penis will become difficult due to your runaway girth... finding a clean dish or garment will be next to impossible... others come to mind, but the experience gained by battling these epic quests will only serve to enhance your WoW skillz.

    In Soviet WoW, trolls own you~!
  • I, like my comrades above, think that this stage of Massive games is just a beginning. This is the gaming industry sticking their toe in the lake to test the water. When they eventually (and they will) take the dive, I think there would be a huge infux in gaming.

    I for one am an avid MMO player, but I like to think that I am different from most others. I play these games not for the level grinding and the cool stuff and such, but for the social aspects of it. I don't think of MMOs as a game as much as the n

  • Items (Score:2, Interesting)

    by Zardog ( 685943 )
    One thing left out of the article is the static nature of most content in MMORPGs. Once you get your sword of uberness, you start to look around and everyone else has the same stuff, so what fun is that? A little more randomness and chance in quality and uniqueness of items would make a nice difference. Also, why is it when I loot a humanoid mob that was carrying an axe and wearing leather armor I get a sword or some other non-related crappy item? There is a total disconnect between what you hunt and w

    • Re:Items (Score:3, Informative)

      by Lehk228 ( 705449 )
      EQ1 was actually cool about that, if a mob was carrying a particular item you could see, you got it 100% of the time, not that item was usually a total piece of crap, but at least you got it.

  • People love a naysayer... (Score:4, Insightful)

    by Dutchmaan ( 442553 ) on Monday April 04, 2005 @03:43PM (#12136723) Homepage
    Every time something comes along that's hugely successful, someone invariably comes along to try and drag it through the mud.

    I played D2 for exactly 4 months before it got old..
    WoW is heading strong into month 5 with a lot of added content on the horizon...

    Blizzard was very smart in not only making tiered level of things to do, but also variable branches of things to do...

    The harder levels of PvE are there for the hardcore PvE'ers and are by design only accessible to those who actually ARE serious about PvE raiding. PvP will soon have battlegrounds which will most like be for more hard core PvP'ers.

    D2 just had harder levels of the same material, and Blizzard has shown very well that they actually learn from their past mistakes. Which is why whenever I discuss things like theoretical loopholes in the WoW system, the topic usually ends with "but I'm sure Blizzard has probably thought of that already"..or in other words they have gained TRUST from the community.

    Blizzard is a shining example of what a game company should be like and I have no trouble whatsoever in handing over $15/mo for a game that I enjoy 99.99% of the time.

    I look forward to their added content and inevitable expansions...

  • I don't think the author has played the game much (Score:3, Interesting)

    by Da VinMan ( 7669 ) on Tuesday April 05, 2005 @06:38PM (#12148738)
    If he had, he would have at least made some mention of WoW's guilds and friends list and on what an impact that can have on player activities in the game. Regularily scheduled guild events, consistent contact with the same people, getting to know other folks over time through chat, etc. are, for me, turning out to be more interesting parts of the WoW experience than I expected.

    But the author didn't discuss any of that. Witness this key quote:

    Though the subscriptions support my theory, my primary reasoning is that this is due to the kind of game World of Warcraft is. Most players in World of Warcraft have no reason to engage in long-term socialization. Without socialization, the main draw the game has always been the novelty of the game play. This is so evident that even the world, with its nice variety between zones, doesn't feel worldly enough: it lacks "epic" and feels like a game.

    If the only loyalty that players have to World of Warcraft is in the novelty of the game mechanic, this leaves it vulnerable on at least two very important fronts. The first front: once players grow bored of the game mechanic, there's no reason to hang around anymore. The second front: Players will be easily distracted by another game with better core mechanics.

    Maybe he's just approaching the game "all wrong", but I think he's missed something here.

    One last thing, it does not take a genius to predict that "what goes up, must come down". The real question isn't whether WoW will be a top 5 game for a long period of time, the real question is whether it will be fantastically profitable to Blizzard and give them the breathing room they need to indulge in creating rich new content, game mechanics, social situations in the game, etc.

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