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XBox (Games)

Xbox Marketing VP Says 10M 360s In First Year 92

Peter Moore, the VP for Xbox marketing, has publicly stated that the Xbox 360 will sell 10 million units by the end of the first year. From the article: "The advantage of launching first for Microsoft, though, is that it has the chance to establish itself as a prominent next-generation format without initial competition. 'The target of 10 million units gives tremendous momentum to a platform,' said Moore at the ELSPA event. The target is certainly an ambitious one, as the current lifetime to date total for Xbox consoles sales worldwide is only around 21 million after almost four years on sale."
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Xbox Marketing VP Says 10M 360s In First Year

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  • 10 million? (Score:4, Funny)

    by grub ( 11606 ) <slashdot@grub.net> on Tuesday June 21, 2005 @03:30PM (#12875122) Homepage Journal

    That's a lot of modchips that have to get made.
    • I rule! (Score:1, Funny)

      by grub ( 11606 )

      A fr1st pr0s7 from an hour ago! Woo, too bad they rejected my article on making your own home-brew TARDIS...
    • I'm hoping and praying that it's a LONG time before we see any 360 modchips. Because the longer it takes, the longer before we have to deal with the obnoxious anti-social hackers and modders who are only interested in ruining Xbox Live for everyone else.

      Personally, if every modded Xbox out there exploded and put the people using it in the hospital for 6 weeks, I would do a happy dance at all the cheaters and losers who would get to suffer.
      • Personally, if every modded Xbox out there exploded and put the people using it in the hospital for 6 weeks, I would do a happy dance at all the cheaters and losers who would get to suffer.

        Such a sad state of affairs when you put your profitability above the lives and health of others...

        It reminds me of a debate I go into in college regarding the use of cats for sleep apnea research. The crux of it came down to the person I was arguing with didn't really like humans at all, and much preferred cats. I h
      • I think Microsoft has enough experience now to start banning modded Xbox 360's from Live right from the start.
      • Re:10 million? (Score:2, Interesting)

        by grub ( 11606 )

        Personally, if every modded Xbox out there exploded and put the people using it in the hospital for 6 weeks, I would do a happy dance at all the cheaters and losers who would get to suffer.

        I have an Executor3 in my xbox. Have never gone on xbox-live but love playing the retro games ala nes, snes, colecovision, atari, n64, apple ][, c64, et al. What's wrong with that?

        Sounds like you need some anger management, it's only gaming.

      • Are the people using mod chips actually playing on Xbox Live? I know I can't...and even the freaking Live Aware games will get on if you aren't carefull and your friend is playing a game...thus banning your account from Xbox Live. Personally, I play using Kai Xlink when I go online because they don't care if you mod your console or not. Plus with that neat little Linksys firmware upgrade I don't even have to use my PC to setup games! It's all done through XBMC.
  • by RogueyWon ( 735973 ) * on Tuesday June 21, 2005 @03:32PM (#12875143) Journal
    This doesn't seem an especially unrealistic estimate. If anything, I'd say it's slightly lower than where MS should be aiming, given their stated intention to rival the PS3. After all, they've got an entire Christmas season to themselves, they've got a pretty well oiled marketing machine and they're going to be hitting the Japanese market *much* harder than they did last time around. I know that's not saying much, but with the developers they have on board this time, it could all end very differently.

    If I had to hazard a guess as to why they've picked the 10 million figure, I'd say that they've decided: a) that it sounds a nice big number to people who don't know the console market b) that they're probably not going to have to give embarrassing explanations when they fall short of it and c) that there's a good chance they'll exceed it, in which case they can have a good gloat.
    • Yeah, I mean...since MS said they're going to be launching for Europe, America and Japan all at the same time, this may be a very feasable estimate. You could split it 3 ways between those markets and you'd have just 3 million sales each (we'll say 4 in the US for reality's sake and to make it 10). Those kind of numbers don't sound very unreasonable once you break it down like that. Now, the only problem is the wildcard of how many people are going to be able to see the need to switch to the next generation
      • Considering the the lackluster reception of the original X-box in Japan, I think the figures might need to be adjusted to something like 3/6/1 for Europe, America, and Japan (resp.). One never knows though.
      • It's a shame the bastards couldn't fit Australia into their release schedule. Would it hurt to send a few down this way??

        Screw you MS! I'm digging out my Atari 2600!
    • I think they choosed the 10 million figure, because on the E3 before the launch of the Gamecube and Xbox (the PS2 was already in the market), Sony just announced that the console war was over, because there were already 10 millions of PS2 sold.

  • by Fr05t ( 69968 ) on Tuesday June 21, 2005 @03:32PM (#12875147)
    'The target of 10 million units gives tremendous momentum to a platform'

    Well I set a target of having sex with 10 billion hot university girls by Christmas. TRY BEATING THAT MOMENTUM!
  • Sources? (Score:3, Informative)

    by Metaphorically ( 841874 ) * on Tuesday June 21, 2005 @04:32PM (#12875674) Homepage
    Where does the number come from? They have to have some kind of justification for it, especially when the article ends with "lifetime to date total for Xbox consoles sales worldwide is only around 21 million after almost four years on sale."

    Seriously, is there some context for this? Can we read more of what Moore said somewhere?
  • First, that figure is what they hope to sell, second if you believe history repeats itself then take note that the Dreamcast came out about the same amount of time ahead of the PlayStation 2.
    • That is very true. With the exception of NES in the 8-bit era, no other first launch console of a generation has outlasted a later counterpart.

      - Turbo Graphics-16 killed by Sega Genesis
      - Sega Saturn killed by PS1
      - Dreamcast killed by PS2

      Of course, M$ has something no other first launch company ever had. That's a billion dollar windows operating system.

      • It depends on your definition of "failed", really, and your definition of "generation" too. The PC Engine (ie Turbo Graphics 16) was more of a NES competitor, IMO, but it still did great business in markets like Japan (which actually really mattered back then). The same is true of the Sega Saturn, which for a reasonable time period in Japan was actually beating the PS1. Both consoles made their manufacturers some nice profits, even though they certainly didn't come in number one place.
  • as a prominent next-generation format without initial competition.

    Because inadequate testing and rushing into deployment has never given MS problems before, right? Oh wait...
  • "The target of 10 million units gives tremendous momentum to a platform"

    "Also, being provided as free gifts in happy meals gives tremendous momentum to a platform."

    "Buy an XBox360 or we kill this dog."
  • Oh, really? (Score:5, Insightful)

    by drix ( 4602 ) on Tuesday June 21, 2005 @04:37PM (#12875726) Homepage
    "The target of 10 million units gives tremendous momentum to a platform"

    No, jackass, the sale of 10 million units gives tremendous momentum to a platform. The target just gives you an excuse to run your mouth off and get it printed by gullible editors.
  • by Andy_R ( 114137 ) on Tuesday June 21, 2005 @04:39PM (#12875742) Homepage Journal
    The BBC version of the story [bbc.co.uk] reports the same speech quite differently.

    Mr Moore actually said Microsoft could reach the 10 million mark in 12 to 16 months.
  • since it's from the VP of marketing, it simply will become true.
  • This doesn't sound too outrageous a goal to me. Last time they were a new system. The next will be a second generation system. If they really do have a whole year being the newest big thing I can see a lot of people being sucked in. How many of those who have an xbox now will NOT get the newer version? How many who didn't get the original xbox will consider the next one?

    Does anyone know how many xbox systems were sold in the first year alone?

  • History (Score:3, Interesting)

    by MBraynard ( 653724 ) on Tuesday June 21, 2005 @04:48PM (#12875808) Journal

    Look at this:

    MS predicts 5 million for sales in first fiscal year. [com.com]

    The result?

    Sales were 3.9 million. [com.com]

    Not too bad, but not perfect. 20% off. Still, it's better to underpromise and over-deliver than the other way around.

    Taco is a tool. I posted this, then they made the story 'sub only' and it ate my post so I had to re-type it. Lesson? Type first in notepad, then paste.

  • See what I mean? (Score:1, Interesting)

    by Anonymous Coward
    I've been saying it all along. Microsoft consider themselves to be media darlings. They've dominated the commercial OS market for so long that they assume that they can just insinuate themselves into any other market, and people will listen to them. When they succeed, they trumpet their forecasts of success and always attribute it to, of all things, innovation. [Pause for laughter.] When they fail (and they DO fail quite often, more often than the typical newsmedia consumer realizes), they give the sam
  • The Dreamcast? (Score:3, Insightful)

    by chman ( 746363 ) on Tuesday June 21, 2005 @05:07PM (#12875998)
    What on Earth does that have to do with the X360? Other than it coming out ahead of the competition, Sega's failures there bear no similarity to the situation Microsoft faces. Sega had already had the MegaCD, the 32 addon for the Megadrive/Genesis, and the Saturn be rejected by consumers. They had unfortunately been out of it for a while by the time the Dreamcast launched.

    Microsoft has had a great deal of success with the Xbox, by some measures overtaking one of the biggest names in the industry (Nintendo) and by many more leading the pack with their online gaming service - something that many would consider to be the next Big Thing for consoles after it changed the PC gaming industry so drastically over the last decade.

    All of this is of course ignoring the fact that MS just won't let this fail. The Xbox is a massive end-run to get a Microsoft device in the living room, to get their brand recognition up for people that don't go near computers, and to use as a platform for the rest of their intentions such as in IPTV. It's a Microsoft reach around so you won't notice the pounding they're going to give you, and I doubt they'll be willing to pull out early.

    So to speak.
    • Re:The Dreamcast? (Score:2, Insightful)

      by Anonymous Coward
      Your argument is flawed.

      Microsoft may have captured second place in North America but Worldwide the XBox and Gamecube are practically tied; they lost billions of dollars to gain this position and, if earlier reports are true, are unwilling to allow the XBox 360 to loose nearly as much money as the original XBox lost them. This means that if the XBox divison is not self sustaining, or if it doesn't suddenly capture a large portion of market share, don't expect much support from their parrent company.

      • Well, Perfect Dark Zero is well past 18 months after initial estimate. Also, looking at Halo 2 it wouldn't surprise me if MS applied a little extra pressure on Rare to make sure the game is ready (or at least gold) at launch. If that means fewer levels and more bugs so be it, there won't be much next-gen competition out anyway and the Perfect Dark name will carry it long enough.
      • Hence MS has "spun off" a division for XBox because they know that the "Borg", as Gates referred to MS in a Time article I read, cannot be cool. Additionally, MS has stated that the original XBox was never intended to make money. It was just to get the name and brand out into the market so that they could work on total domination with the second release.
    • The Saturn had a lot more sales in Japan until the PS1 came out. It was hated here because they rushed it to beat the PS1 to market and had very few very unpolished launch titles.
  • by Anonymous Coward
    Sales of 10 million units in 12-18 months are not too unrealistic to expect; that is unless your platform is called the N-Gage. The question that is really important is how many 360s do they have to sell in 12-18 months? This question is more centered around what the minimum number of XBox 360 systems that have to be sold to consider the platform viable.

    I know that more people will question the potential sales of the Revolution, but in all honesty, the XBox 360 will need to be far more successful in order
    • Microsoft is sitting on piles of cash -- they can continue to justify losses which barely register as line items on their budgets as "strategic hedges" against the possibility of game consoles ever doing a functionality jump like cell phones are in the middle of right now (powerup to PDA!), which would cut into the home computing market, which ironically is ALSO a small part of their vast empire but worth a heck of a lot more than every XBox title ever sold.
  • by Tink2000 ( 524407 ) on Tuesday June 21, 2005 @05:09PM (#12876017) Homepage Journal
    Well, if they can get the price point right, I think it's plausible.

    I think if they release it for around $200-225, then it will definately be do-able.

    Before you start telling me how they won't release that low, remember the hype around PSP: at first there was "no way that it would be less than $400 ..." according to the industry watchers.

    If you combine this with the $60+ (and rising!) price point for newer games, I think the whole thing is plausible.

    I know I'll get one. Then again, I plan on getting a PS3 as well (but only after the first gen hardware is gone).
  • by TheoB ( 859132 ) on Tuesday June 21, 2005 @05:15PM (#12876067)
    I suspect this isn't just marketing promises: Microsoft has a fair deal of control over how many 360's are sold in the first year. If they've decided that a 10 million unit head-start on Sony's US launch is what they need to compete this generation, they can cut prices and advertise sufficiently to get 10 million consoles into homes.

    Remember, this isn't a question of a market demanding a good at a certain price point: MS, just like Sony, is going to lose millions of dollars in their first year of giving away razors, one way or the other.

  • by Anonymous Coward
    10 Million might just be doable if they can make them fast enough. I know I would have had a PS2 sooner if it were possible.
  • Theres no way MS can have 3 PPC processors in a xbox 360 by the end of THIS year at under $800 They might subsitize the cost like they did the xbox, but I doubt you can get what a $3000 MAC cost for less than $800
    Plus they want to make money this time around so they can't sell em for as cheap as they did before without everyone wanting to mod chip it again.

    Well We'll see
    • You are waaaay off. Remember that they own the IP rights to the 360 CPU and GPU. They will merely be paying royalty fees to ATI and IBM this time around and can take the design and have it fabbed anywhere they like. ATI has stated that they expect $2 to $5 per Xbox 360 in paid fees from MS. The IBM deal is probably similar.

      In pure silicon (and other hardware) costs, the latest word is that the 360 comes in at $375 or thereabouts, which is actually cheaper than the original Xbox. The reason? They don't have
  • Ten million units is a lot units to be pushing out in one year. The only way they can do that is to hit a sweet price point that anyone can buy at. A $100 USD XBox 360? Nah...
  • Dident they say they were going to get a bilion gamers on xbox live at E3? So it would take them 10 years to do that, lol.
  • by xanderwilson ( 662093 ) on Tuesday June 21, 2005 @07:26PM (#12877036) Homepage
    Guy #1: "Man, this Xbox we're working on is gonna be awesome."

    Guy #2: "I know. We're gonna sell like a million units."

    Guy #1: "No, way, man. We're gonna sell like ten million."

    Guy #2: "Dude, that's awesome. We should tell people."

    Guy #1: "Heh. You said units."
  • People (normal non-fanboy people) don't buy consoles for the console. They buy them for the games. If MS wants to sell 10M 360's in a year, they had better be standing on Bugie's throat for Halo 3...
  • What does Microsoft define as a "sale"?

    The retailers place purchase orders. Ten million confirmed purchase orders does not necessarily mean ten million units will be sold to a consumer.

    And if they define it as ten million units sold to a consumer... I might not hold my breath on that one.

Research is what I'm doing when I don't know what I'm doing. -- Wernher von Braun