The 13 Steps to Sony's Demise 82
An anonymous reader writes "There's an article up over at About.com called, "Nintendo's Role in Sony's Fall." The article discusses a detailed sequence of events, a time-line, that might play out over the next year or two as Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo battle it out. It references the launch of the Xbox 360, Halo 3, the PS3, and the Revolution strategy, as well as Sony's troubles with employee layoffs in 2008 and the PSP. Right or wrong? Who knows, but it's well informed and after 13 steps, the game plays out like this: Microsoft punches, Nintendo dodges, and Sony ends up with a bloody nose."
It was even more interesting... (Score:3, Informative)
I can't see it (Score:4, Funny)
Re:I can't see it (Score:1)
Overdoing it with the pages? (Score:1)
More Analysis than Prediction (Score:4, Interesting)
Re:More Analysis than Prediction (Score:3, Insightful)
Erm. Care to explain what your definition of lukewarm reception is? It's in the all-time top 20 [gamerankings.com] at gamerankings.com. It sold millions of copies. It is still the number 1 XBox Live game [xbox.com] after being out for over a year.
Re:More Analysis than Prediction (Score:1)
Re:More Analysis than Prediction (Score:2)
Re:More Analysis than Prediction (Score:2)
Since I already have a perfectly good Playstation II and XBox, and a decent game collection for each...
And there is a huge supply of used games in every game store in town...
And I haven't even come close to playing through all the games that are already out there...
And my slimline Playstation II is pure solid-state with almost no moving parts except for the CD, which means it'll last for years or even decades if I take care of it...
And I can get spare Playstation IIs for 149.00, and spare copies of m
Sigh (Score:5, Insightful)
Sony are in a bad place at this very moment. This is undeniable. Furthermore, this is mainly due to an act of utterly reprehensible greed and stupidity on their part. However, this *will* blow over. A year from now, the public will have completely forgotten that the current DRM issue ever existed.
What people tend to forget when discussing the next generation isn't what's going to change - it's what's going to stay the same. Ultimately, Sony are going into the next round of the console wars with the exact same strengths that gave them such an overwhelming victory during the PS2 era. These include:
- Vast array of third party titles, covering every genre and aimed at every demographic.
- Huge brand recognition with people who don't consider themselves to be gamers, but still like to keep a console around.
- Exclusivity, or early-release deals for the most significant franchises in gaming, including (but not limited to) Final Fantasy, Gran Turismo, Metal Gear Solid, Grand Theft Auto.
At the same time, Nintendo have not demonstrated that they're prepared to address any of the issues that have rendered the Gamecube so irrelevant over the second half of the current cycle. These include:
- Inability to deliver the quantity of first and second party titles they need to keep gamers interested.
- A dictatorial attitude towards third party developers that serves to keep some of the most important away from the system.
- Very few games which appeal outside of the pre-teen or retro-gamer demographics.
- Serious under-representation in many genres, particularly driving games and RPGs.
All the fancy new controllers in the world aren't going to make the slightest bit of difference to the sales figures until Sony throw away their advantages or Nintendo overcome their disadvantages.
My own predictions as to what will happen? The 360 will make a relatively strong performance, especially with having a Christmas to itself. It won't beat the PS3. It won't even come particularly close. But I think that having a Christmas all to itself and (hopefully) a better RPG presence than the original X-Box will work in its favour. I can see it eventually selling, say, 75 units for every 100 PS3s sold, which would be better for MS than the picture at the end of this round, even if they did manage to take 2nd place in the final straight. The Revolution's only going to continue the slow downward trend out of the mainstream and into niche obscurity that Nintendo have been on for a decade now.
Re:Sigh (Score:1)
Re:Sigh (Score:1, Insightful)
Mario Kart: fun, but not a true racing game. Basically an arcade-battle game, with racing elements. It's fun, but you can't get away with using it here.
Need for Speed: Cheap, cross-platform games. Low quality, compared to the rest of the genre. Not on a par with the likes of Gran Turismo, Project Gotham or Forza.
NASCAR: narrow, specific license. No broad appeal. No appeal at all outside the US.
Rally Championship: narrow appeal again. Done much better on other platforms, particularly
Re:Sigh (Score:1)
Fire Emblem: Ditto
Unless that refers to "not an RPG" only, that's a gross misrepresentation. Fire Emblem is a strategy RPG, it's MUCH deeper than almost all jRPGs on the market.
By the way, his list ignores Paper Mario and Baten Kaitos.
Re:Sigh (Score:4, Interesting)
- Mario 128 for GCN and Zelda: twilight princess came out six months or a year ago
- Mario kart: double dash was as good as Mario Kart DS
- Zelda: WW had been as good as Miyamoto wanted
I think we'd be looking at a very different console market now
Re:Sigh (Score:2, Insightful)
Volume and timeliness of games has been Nintendo's single biggest problem ever since the N64 launched. It's all very well for the fanboys to say that Nintendo should take the time they need to get each game right
Re:Sigh (Score:1)
The real deal-breaker for the gamecube... (Score:2)
If they had gone with a standard DVD-ROM disc, they would have gotten much more third party support. Third parties don't like having to go through Nintendo for the production of their games, plus the reduced storage of the Nintendo disc makes it harder to do simultaneous releases on all three systems. As a result, the Gmaecube hasn't gotten any GTA3 games, which use all the space on the DVD-ROM.
Re:The real deal-breaker for the gamecube... (Score:2)
When I was a kid, I got one big present every Christmas. A Gamecube or PS2 would certainly fit this scenario. As a kid, I could have gotten either one, but I would never be able to convince my parents that I ought to
Re:Sigh (Score:2)
Very few games which appeal outside of the pre-teen or retro-gamer demographics.
Not true, there's actually been a good number of these, but Nintendo has failed to play up on them well enough.
- Serious under-representation in many genres, particularly driving games and RPGs.
Gamecube actually has five high-quality RPGs: Skies of Arcadia,
Re:Sigh (Score:2)
Re:Sigh (Score:2)
Summary (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:Summary (Score:2)
Re:Summary (Score:1)
Re:Summary (Score:2)
Re:Summary (Score:2)
That should read...
So far, as best we know, the PS3 will be launched in "spring of 2006" in Japan.
Re:Summary (Score:3, Insightful)
Surely Halo is a nice game, but a lot of people don't even like the entire genre it's in.
Re:Summary (Score:1)
Microsoft more open than Sony (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:Microsoft more open than Sony (Score:2)
O.k. If you define "open" as in its the easiest machine to hack, you'll most likely be right. I'd say 95%-98% of the target market of all 3 consoles defines "open" as backwards compatiable and able to play DVDs, CDs, and maybe MP3s. In that reguard, Nintendo & Sony are both "open", but MS are "closed
Re:Microsoft more open than Sony (Score:2)
Re:Microsoft more open than Sony (Score:1)
This is not a big deal (certainly not as big as PS2 playing PS1 gaems) but it is a minor selling point.
Re:Microsoft more open than Sony (Score:2)
This is not a big deal (certainly not as big as PS2 playing PS1 gaems) but it is a minor selling point.
Not a big deal? Are you kidding? I wouldn't have bought the PS2 without the ability to play PS1 games & DVDs for the price. I'd have gotten a PS1 and a GameCube. There are alot of fun GC games that I'd like to actually buy a
Re:Microsoft more open than Sony (Score:1)
I beleve they will call it the Gamesqrt.
Re:Microsoft more open than Sony (Score:2)
I know it's in different markets, but that's not the point.
As for being the most open, ever heard of Trusted Computing or Palladium?
Re:Microsoft more open than Sony (Score:2)
Um, that is the point actually. Sony has oodles of audio and video they want to protect. Microsoft mainly wants to sell hardware and software.
The point wasn't that Microsoft is remotely perfect. It's just an odd chance on Slashdot that we get to say that someone else is slightly worse than MS. I think it's clearly more of a "lesser of two evils" kind of thing, or "ignore Sony, pay attention to Nintendo" kind of thing.
(yes, the story is
Re:Ok (Score:2)
Jeez, what were you doing with them? My first one lasted until last year, and I only got rid of it then because I was moving and wanted a slimline model with progressive scan.
Re:Ok (Score:1)
Re:Ok (Score:1)
Re:Ok (Score:1)
Not that well documented (Score:3, Insightful)
"The system is well designed and performs well, launching the next-generation of gaming consoles."
I don't know about you, but to me, having even 1% of the sold consoles experiencing problem as trivial as PSU overheating, makes the console not well designed and performing well. When you design a piece of hardware, you don't check only if the processors can compute 1+1=2, but also if, you know, you can power on the damn thing.
"Sony, who currently relies on its gaming division to prop up its electronics division, continues to develop the PS3 with more limited resources."
I don't know if the author realizes that Sony also has huge revenues from movies (via Sony Pictures [sonypictures.com]) and music (via "a href="http://www.sonybmg.com/">Sony BMG).
"With a 6-month head start, the Xbox 360 claims the dominant location in households who are unable to afford owning both the PS3 and the Xbox 360."
That's my own interpretation here, but Microsoft might not dominate the market as stated in the article. Microsoft suffers from bad reputation. Even the lamest user know that Windows crashes a lot ("duh! My computer is bugging!"), gamers know that the original Xbox had severe issues (early units couldn't read later games because of a crappy DVD player that could read multi-layer discs), not to mention the above-mentionned defective PSU for the X360.
As far as I know (and I may be wrong), PS2 never suffered any thing of that kind, and Sony has overall a good reputation (since people think they do great electronic device, which is kind of true unless you can afford to spend a few more bucks for higher quality equipment). And no, I'm not an anti-Microsoft. I run Windows XP and I bought a Xbox, kthx.
Re:Not that well documented (Score:2, Informative)
Sony issues recall for overheating PS2 AC Adaptors [gamesindustry.biz]
Latest PS2 has compatibility issues [geek.com]
Read Disc Errors [arstechnica.com]
Not to mention the Y-plug mouse and keyboard issue...
Nope, nothing wrong at all...
Re:Not that well documented (Score:2)
Re:Not that well documented (Score:2)
However I've got to give it to Sony for one thing.. About 3 or maybe even 4 years a
Re:Not that well documented (Score:3, Funny)
This is as far as I got, then I got a disc read error and had to restart.
Re:Not that well documented (Score:1)
Just so you know, the article was posted on Nov 13, 2005, well before the XBox 360 release.
*sigh* (Score:4, Funny)
How many times must we go through this? Atari vs Intellivision vs Coleco. Atari vs Commodore vs Apple. Apple vs Windows. NES vs Sega. Dreamcast vs PS vs N64. PS2 vs Xbox vs GC.
I'm waiting for the "PS3 controllers cause carpal-tunnel, Revolution causes tennis elbow, Xbox controller is the cure" article. Or "Cold winter nights cured by miraculous Xbox 360 Space Heater."
Bah!
- - - - -
http://www.marachan.com/ [marachan.com]
Re:*sigh* (Score:2)
Here's my list:
Xbox vs Nintendo vs Sony: Nintendo
Atari vs Intellivision vs Coleco: Coleco, but only because of the abysmal 5200 controller.
Atari vs Commodore vs Apple: Commodore
Apple vs Windows: Apple if you have the cash.
NES vs Sega: NES
Dreamcast vs PS vs N64: Saturn
PS2 vs Xbox vs GC: GC
It's not that deep. (Score:4, Interesting)
But the PSP and Sony's resources are clearly the problems. Japan's gaming market is cooling off. Square Enix is in a slump. The biggest advancement in this gen of consoles, online games, are better served by the 360. Imagine this: Sony's Everquest works better on Microsoft's "Other Console", the PC, than it does on the PS2. Amazing.
But the most important bit is the PSP. A new hardware launch always kills profit for a while. If Sony doesn't get over the hump and start taking market share from Nintendo in handhelds, the loss in profits and projected revenues will hurt a lot.
Here's what was lacking in the article: the PSP's actual problems.
1. It doesn't come close to competing with the Ipod, which Sony seemed to believe it would.
2. One analog 'stick' in an age of FPS on consoles? This thing can't compete in the U.S.
3. No Square RPGs? No turn-based strategy games? No pet simulator? This thing can't compete in Japan.
4. Portable systems are still children's toys in the U.S. It's too expensive to be a toy, and lacks children's games.
5. With the 360 and PS3 guaranteed to drive spending in home theater setups, this thing has bad timing.
6. Customers can't see it. Everywhere I shop, there is no PSP display. It's hard to be impressed by the screen and games if you can't sample them in person. $250 is too much to spend on faith (for some of us).
Here's what works with the PSP:
1. The movies are actually selling. UMD is the most successfuly media format in terms of speed of adoption: a good sign for the Blu-ray discs Sony wants to push with the PS3.
2. Big Screen.
3. EA's support.
4. Memory prices will continue to fall over time, so eventually this WILL work as a downloadable music player.
5. The "children's toy" label has a chance to change if Sony sticks with this thing long enough.
6. Built-in wifi support means that the zillions of us who have broadband and wireless routers could eventually use this for surfing the web or watching TV/Streaming music, if Sony gets the application right.
Right now, the PSP is 90% potential, 10% reality, 0$ profit. Not the best distraction during a major console upgrade cycle.
Re:It's not that deep. (Score:5, Insightful)
Which would be about as effective as Sony releasing a harddrive for the PS2 to counter the xbox's built in harddrive. How many games support Sony's harddrive? One?
No FPS maker is going to support sony or ms's add-on motion sensitive controller because not everyone will have it.
Just like the eye-toy.. you'll get the game that's bundled with it, and that's it.
Re:It's not that deep. (Score:2)
If the Revolution controller is so popular that MS and Sony copy it for their own systems, most software developers will at least add support for it (though I doubt they'd ever require it).
Re:It's not that deep. (Score:1)
Re:It's not that deep. (Score:2)
Which you know they won't. One hand is a content producer, the other is a content player. The producer side will want it to be DRM'd to hell and back, and in the process they'll screw something up somewhere and make it a terrible implementation. Such as you can only use Sony's formats, you can't encode
other scenarios (Score:4, Insightful)
Also, MS is fighting battles on many fronts, and so it may be vulnerable to the kind of problems that the diverse Sony has as well. The popular mythos is that MS simply outlasts competitors in all areas by relying on its war chest, but if it is stretched too thin in other areas, the 360 may suffer. Think, for example, of the challenge Google and Linux represent to MS as a company. It would seem that MS's first priorities would be to the protection of its valuable assets rather than currently unprofitable ones on the speculation that they will lead to future gains.
MS also has certain (though not very severe) limitations on its flexability due to its monopoly conviction. It is possible that divisions of MS, including the entertainment section, could spin off to avoid these complications, but the resulting company or companies would not have the consolidated MS's resources.
In all of this, it should be noted that Nintendo focuses pretty tightly on one industry, and this may make them more nimble than MS or Sony. Diversification may end up being something of a liability, depending upon how other divisions perform.
Personally, I hope Sony and MS bleed each other dry a bit; having choice in consoles and games is generally a good thing (although in this era of ports it seems to be less of a factor), but both MS and Sony don't need to cement their oligopolic positions even further. That would be detrimental for everyone except them in the long run.
Why? (Score:1, Interesting)
You have the three folowing, Xbox 360, ps3 and Revolution.
For Ps3 tough it is another cheap computer exclusivly made for game, the Ps2 has offer me an impressive array of different game genre. And many of these genre had a couple of great game. Not to mention that not many of thes
Re:Doesn't know what he's talking about (Score:2)
Re:Doesn't know what he's talking about (Score:2)
game companies and console makers NEED to sell you their console. thats why they are so willing to sell their machines for tremendous losses. they need to get their consoles into consumers homes so that developers decide whether or not to develop new titles for it. these last two generations the console that had the mo
This article is making some stupid assumptions (Score:3, Insightful)
Why would Sony keep the electronics department around if it is losing so big? Either they are confident that it will catch up, ensuring short-term outside funding, or they would just sell the department.
Point 11 claims Halo 3 is the best game ever and will let millions of PS2 gamers dump their entire gaming collection, which they could have taken with them on the PS3, only to be able to play Halo 3 on X360. Besides, considering the PS3 will be relatively expensive anyway, why would MS cut the X360's price and lose even more on the box?
Re:This article is making some stupid assumptions (Score:2)
I wont even RTFA (Score:4, Insightful)
*Xbox 360 will have terrible sales in Japan, Ps3 will beat it by a landslide and Nintendo will follow.
*The revolution controller wont be enough for Nintendo to beat Sony or MS only a few games will use it as advertised still kids and non-regular gamers will go crazy with it.
*Nintendo will keep pleasing fans but alienating third parties and the teen/mature market, the online service will be a success but the lack of mature/third party games will keep the revolution at bay.
*The PSP will eventually have a bigger better game library and act as a ps3 controller , the price will drop and a new version will be announced, still somehow it wont beat Nintendo at the handhelds market.
*Gizmondo and Ngage2 will flop.
*Phantom will never exist, after much talk the project will be cancelled , the producers will end up in criminal investigation sued by their own investors.
*Duke Nukem forever will be released for the x360 and people will be underwhelmed with it still it will sell very well then dissapear, a sequel will be announced and it will take 10 years or so to be released.
*Halo 3 will leave fans disapointed still it will sale a few million copies after a huge marketing campaign. The multiplayer will be amazing though. (although pretty much the same than halo2)
*Ps3 graphics will be EXACTLY the same than those in 360 in most cases, it WONT have a hdd and games will be $10 more expensive, hardcores will still buy it like fresh baked bread. (most ps3 games will use a regular dvd instead of blue ray)
*The ps3 will eventually beat MS in the console wars, the best RPG's and japanese titles will go to it, MS will still have a secure second place Nintendo will keep in third although their profits will be a lot bigger.
*EA will keep creating mostly crappy licensed multiconsole games, although some of them will be relatively good. the next Madden and Tony hawk will be announced.
*MS will announce Blue ray support for their next console, Nintendo will announce HDTV support for their next console and Sony will announce HDD support for their next console.
So pretty much, things will be pretty much the same waythey are now.
Re:I wont even RTFA (Score:1)
Despite the usual "Japan hate US technology" trolls on here, the main reason why Xbox failed in Japan is that it didn't have games Japanese players wanted to play. This may or may not change for the 360. I'm curious to see what will happen when FFXI is ported to the 360.
"The revolution controller wont be enough for Nintendo to beat Sony or MS only a few games will use it as advertised still kids and non-
Re:I wont even RTFA (Score:2)
Re:I wont even RTFA (Score:2)
Only briefly. It wasn't long before publishers started to sell transparent GBC-only carts, and I'd say it was less than a year before publishers stopped producing four-color games entirely, bringing about the death of the old four-color Game Boy.
Zelda: Link's Awakening DX ran on both four-color and GBC. The Oracle games were GBC only.
"When the DS came out, which does
Re:I wont even RTFA (Score:2)
Sorry, but the Xbox 360 is already having bad sales over in Japan actually some magazines reported people literally laughed at the xbox 360 during the x05 and leave their hall unattended most of the time. I think it has a lot to do with 2 facts that American and Japanese gamers have extremely different tastes. (FPS-RPGS, SPORTS-WACKY PUZZLES) an
Re:I wont even RTFA (Score:1)
Keep dreaming. The reason that "market" is untapped is because those people aren't interested enough in video games to shell out $200 + games an
Huge oversights (Score:1)
2. The 360 only has a DVD drive in it. Many of today's PS2 and XBox titles already fill a whole DVD, and they have much simpler geometry, textures, and FMV clips than most next-gen games will have. 1
Re:Huge oversights (Score:1)