Garriotts See Shakeup To MMOG Industry Coming 115
Next Generation is reporting from the annual DICE event, and has the gist of the presentation given by Robert and Richard Garriott about the future of the MMOG industry. From the article: "Richard Garriott, father of the Ultima series said, "After a period of growth, opportunities are closing, budgets are increasing to tens of millions of dollars, and companies need global infrastructure in order to publish. My guess is that over the next 3-5 years, only five companies will operate in this business, and unfortunately, many of the startups will be gone.""
Not exactly Brilliant commentary... (Score:5, Insightful)
The same is true about the computer game industry in general. When games were new and a lot less sophisticated, there were thousands of publishing companies. Today we have..what, 4 major ones? EA, Ubisoft, Veventi, MS and...?
Re:Not exactly Brilliant commentary... (Score:2, Informative)
Re:Not exactly Brilliant commentary... (Score:3, Insightful)
What I can see is perhaps indie-MMO games the size of maybe a few hundred or even thousand people. It'll very much serve a niche audience. However, you could argue that populations on that scale aren't very "massive".
Re:Not exactly Brilliant commentary... (Score:4, Insightful)
Sure, there will only be a few huge MMOs you can buy at Wallmart, but that's the case with most game publishing.
Re:Not exactly Brilliant commentary... (Score:2)
7 or 8? Let's see how many I can come up with off the top of my head.
Damn near twice that :)
Your point is well-taken but the fact is that in any given market there's room for a handful of big boys and then a bunch of niche players. Here in the US, the biggest players are ford, GM, daimlerchrysler, honda, and
(Mod Parent UP) (Score:1)
There may well end up being 5 or so MAJOR players in the MMORPG industry but there will always be room for other games. The companies operating the smaller games just need to keep costs down to be profitable. It's the same with most industries. 90% of mind/market share may be controlled by only a few companies who have the huge turnover and huge profits (and huge costs) but that still leaves 10% for all the smaller companies to
Re:Not exactly Brilliant commentary... (Score:1)
Ford: Ford, Lincoln, Mercury, Mazda, Volvo, Jaguar, Land Rover, Aston Martin
DaimlerChrysler: Dodge, Chrysler, Jeep, Mercedes-Benz
GM: Chevrolet, Pontiac, Buick, Cadillac, GMC, Oldsmobile, Saturn, HUMMER, Saab, Holden, Opel, Vauxhall, Isuzu, Suzuki
VW/Audi Groups: Audi, Volkswagen, Seat, Lamborghini, Skoda, Bentley, Bugatti
Then there's the smaller ones:
Honda/Acura
Toyota/Lexus
Nissan/Infiniti
And then all the brand "only" ones:
Mit
Re:Not exactly Brilliant commentary... (Score:2)
Here is a table that shows which company own which brand:
http://carscarscars.blogs.com/index/2004/03/who_o
Re:Not exactly Brilliant commentary... (Score:2)
Er, no. Ford owns Volvo. GM owns Saab. GM owns Daewoo. Arguably, GM has control of Isuzu (and Isuzu's damn near dead anyways). Call it 10 1/2, not all that much more than "7 or 8".
Chris Mattern
Re:Not exactly Brilliant commentary... (Score:1)
Volvo is Ford.
Nissan Renault and Citroen are the same company.
I believe Daewoo was acquired by GM.
There aren't as many as you think.
My guess? (Score:5, Funny)
How many can the world support? (Score:4, Insightful)
From my point of view, however, it's likely that the truly great games are probably going to *still* be startups that, while awesome games for those who like them, don't have the wide audience appeal that some of the not-so good games. And thus may well end up failing, going bankrupt, or being bought out by one of the big companies.
A case in point is probably the entire SWG thing. They had a great premise (however flawed the implementation might have been), but it was sacrificed for what is essentially a more focused game that is probably easier to play (and thus accessible to a lot more people), even if it is a massively inferior gameplay experience for those who are willing to take the time to really learn the complexities of a game. Economically, they'd rather have a huge number of part-time gamers than a small number of hard-core ones.
Although that brings up the point that someone, somewhere, may figure out how to make a game with the intricacies, complexities, and depth to keep the hard-core types happy while still being accessible and fun for those who just want to drop in and play. A good example of this might well be done using Dungeons and Dragons. For those who know the game, there are an insane number of variations on all the different character themes. For those who don't want to spend the time to learn all that, there's the default sets for each major class, slap in the ability scores, and you've got a fully functional archtype, ready for the next hack and slash. And in the process of playing said archtypes, you'll still be exposed to the mechanics, and thus you learn. And after a while, you'll know enough to be making your own builds, thus the archtypes served to ease the learning curve to get you into the more complex things, and thus both systems co-exist.
If someone can figure out how to make that perfect game, I look forward to playing it.
Re:How many can the world support? (Score:1, Troll)
Part time gamers will never pay a monthly fee.
Re:How many can the world support? (Score:2)
You sir, are an idiot.
My wife pays a monthly fee to play World of Warcraft. She logs in once a week to do something on it beyond Auction House stuff. Her total playtime, including in the auction house, is right around 4 hours a week, maybe 5.
Half my guild logs in on a saturday, plays for 5-10 hours straight, then logs off for another two or three weeks.
Why the heck would they do this? Social environment for one. Casual gamers are ex-hardcore gamers who grew up a
Re:How many can the world support? (Score:1)
Five companies? (Score:1)
Re:Five companies? (Score:4, Interesting)
There is also regarded as a immune system copy, which is very comfortable usable. It does take a couple of years from now.
Re:Five companies? (Score:2)
Chris Mattern
Re:Five companies? (Score:2)
I've been trying to parse this and I just can't figure out what you're saying.
Re:Five companies? (Score:1)
Re:Five companies? (Score:2, Informative)
Re:Five companies? (Score:1)
You give me far too much credit for something as large as a tool to help practice maneuvers!
Re:Five companies? (Score:2)
-Eric
Re:Five companies? (Score:2)
If you play it you play it using an interface called PlayOnline, and as I recall it was a SONY product, and it was a joint project between Square/Enix and Sony, so yes... they are both the same boat when regards to FF Online.
~D
Re:Five companies? (Score:2)
Re:Five companies? (Score:2)
~D
Re:Five companies? (Score:2)
I don't recall the Xbox Live
Re:Five companies? (Score:2)
I wager the reason Microsoft didn't force it down your throat, is because XBOX Live games are not PC capable, playonline was console AND PC.. allowing me to play FFXI with a few friends who REFUSED to ever again install windows on their home PC's (and a few who had
Re:Five companies? (Score:2)
Also, I don't understand your complaint about preferring your PC ("worked my ass off to get stable and enhanced p
Re:Five companies? (Score:2)
~D
Re:Five companies? (Score:2)
Coming from someone who works for a PC OEM, the "experience" you'll be getting will consist of patching, debugging and working your ass off, let alone the device driver hunting.
Re:Five companies? (Score:1)
Re:Five companies? (Score:1)
Sony - EQ, EQ2, SWG (and I think they support FFXI)
Blizzard - WoW
Funcom - Anarchy Online
CCP Games - EVE Online
NCSoft - CoH, CoV, Guild Wars, Lineage, Lineage II
Wizet - MapleStory
AeonSoft - Fly for Fun
MindArk - Project Entropia
Re:Five companies? (Score:2)
Re:Five companies? (Score:2)
Turbine - Asheron's Call in 1999, plus 1 retired and a new one this year (DDO)
hurfy
online gamer for 25 years
Re:Five companies? (Score:3, Insightful)
Plus you have all of the non-combat oriented MMOs. I'm sure EA's TSO is still there - a flop by EAs standards, but still a big game. EAs will continue to be a player I'm sure. Second Life, A Tale in the Desert, I'm sure there are many.
It's also worth noting that while NCSoft distributes many titles, they come from almost as may design stud
Re:Five companies? (Score:2)
All of the development, systems management, etc is handled by SE. SOE strictly handles (and poorly, I might add) in game grievances.
Re:Five companies? (Score:2)
Damn me and my typoes.
Re:Five companies? (Score:1)
I'm pretty sure that mythic are still making money off DAoC, they released an expansion just a couple months ago. The numbers are dwindling but they've been clustering servers to keep the game from getting too empty and presumably to save on hardware costs.
Also they are working on an MMORPG based on the Warhammer franchise.
To the GP (or GGP? I forget) Successful means making money, not just large or market share %. (see MS vs Sony vs Nintendo arguments for more on this).
Re:Five companies? (Score:2)
Also you forgot Turbine, they have two big ones Middle Earth Online and D&D Online.
Re:Five companies? (Score:1)
let me guess: (Score:1)
Re:isn't this already true? (Score:2, Interesting)
Re:isn't this already true? (Score:1)
This is the same country that has a TV channel devoted entirely to StarCraft. Gotta love it...that and the soju
Re:isn't this already true? (Score:2)
Re:isn't this already true? (Score:2)
Check out the listings on mmorpg.com, there's still a lot of competing publishers out there; some larger than others, but it's not as narrow a field (yet) as you may think.
Up to a point. (Score:4, Interesting)
I think this is because in order to maximize profit, you must have the best product which requires teams of coders, hordes of graphic designers, and armies of network admins to roll out WoW, EQ, and whatever other blockbuster game comes out.
So this is what is done...
However, larger companies tend to not take risks on unproven ground so there still will be room for startups to nudge their way, but they won't be blockbusters with 100,000 players.
Eventually, after technology and bandwidth costs aren't prohibitive or a factor and the game engines have gotten as realistic as they can so there isn't anything left but to create game content, then perhaps it will be more mom and pop shops again. But this might be a while...
Re:Up to a point. (Score:2)
But where and how do mom and pop recruit and pay for the essential creative talent? They will need artists to conceive, build and populate their world. They will need writers to bring that world to life. They will need designers who know how to translate stories into game-pl
Re:Up to a point. (Score:2)
But if the technology and tools made the engine and art easy enough to create, you wouldn't need to hire teams of people to do this and you'd only need a handful or just a single person like the old days who would write the story, do
more big business bs (Score:1, Informative)
Most of the problems in the gaming indusrty result from greed and mismanagement.
Lower budget MMO's? (Score:1)
If the market were more receptive to less graphic-heavy games it could lower a portion of the costs. Seeing Ragnarok Online (mmo with all characters represented as sprites and slight use a 3-D engine) in action seemed like a natural move to a lower budget mmo that was still eye-pleasing. Unfortunately, the trend did not seem to catch on.
Re:Lower budget MMO's? (Score:1)
Simply put though, a 3-D graphic intensive world is more visually intensive and stimulating, and thus easier to emerse oneself in. And that is
Re:Lower budget MMO's? (Score:1)
Yeah...and I'm a Chinese jet pilot... (Score:1)
Nothing ventured, nothing gained. If a few companies keep spouting out their Cookie Cutter MMO's then all we'll get is the same regurgitated game over and over. There will simply be a demand for other things that companies like SOE and NCSoft will not be willing to risk developing, as well as games which will be funded purely by donations (Knight Online for example http://www.knight-online.com.my/ [knight-online.com.my]).
It's not impossible to compete with the MMO giants, but it will be dif
Re:Yeah...and I'm a Chinese jet pilot... (Score:1)
Re:Yeah...and I'm a Chinese jet pilot... (Score:1)
LARPing in VR (Score:4, Insightful)
I'm predicting that as free and cheap 3d virtual reality gets more common, the kinds of hack-n-slash stuff you see in MMORPGs now are going to become the kinds of things hobbyists put together inside virtual worlds that exist for other reasons. Right now that stuff is really crude by comparison, but it's just a matter of time before realistic graphics become as generic as verb-noun parsers and scripted objects in MUDs.
So the kinds of things that go on in 3d games now will be like LARPing in VR. SCA-type stuff. What will *companies* be doing instead? Heck if I know... interactive movies with licensed celebrity characters and paid actors?
Re:LARPing in VR (Score:1)
In my opinon VR sucks
Re:LARPing in VR (VLARP) (Score:2)
Shakeup to the MMO Industries? (Score:1)
Oh, a bigger budget to make the same retread stuff. Neat. O.
Re: (Score:2)
With all due respect.... (Score:5, Insightful)
The reality is that a small game can make a modest income. The game I administrate, Meridian 59 [meridian59.com], makes enough to keep me from starving to death, but it'll never be as big and amazing as, say, Lineage. But, people who enjoy hard-core Player vs. Player (PvP) with consequences enjoy our game immensely. We're happy keeping our classic game alive (it first launched over 9 years ago) and serving a niche.
One problem is with the term "massive". People look at the smaller games and turn their noses up at them. Our game with about 100 players on at peak isn't very "massive", so most people give it a pass. In reality, the community is actually quite a bit stronger. But, no one puts out press releases about having "the best community" or "the most enthusiastic customers". It's all about "the most people playing (and paying!)" in press release land.
The problem with the Garriots' predictions is that online is a medium, not a genre. There's a LOT of untapped potential out there, too. Take a look at the Korean market and you'll see an amazing array of games. Of course, one issue in the U.S. market is that the existing audience expects millions to be poured into the production values of the game. As soon as people realize that gameplay really is more important, you'll start seeing a lot more options out there.
Personally, I think the future is in niche games. Why go visit a game trying to cater to the lowest common denominator when you can go visit a game that caters more specifically to your tastes and the tastes of people like you. Of course, as with most boutique offerings, don't expect the price to remain at the rock-bottom like it is now.
Some thoughts from someone else in the industry.
Have fun,
Re:With all due respect.... (Score:2)
Re:With all due respect.... (Score:2)
I have the utmost respect the Garriots, but they built their reputation on single-player games. However, I find their conclusions in this matter flawed based on perso
Re:With all due respect.... (Score:2)
On the other hand, I'm not arguing that there's only room for a few MMORPGs, I'm just saying that the Garriots do know something about 'em.
Re:With all due respect.... (Score:2)
There are also a number of other indie online games that you might not have heard of. Yohoho! Puzzle Pirates and A Tale in the Desert are two of the more original, for example. Just because you've never heard of these games doesn't mean they don't exist or that they aren't something to be
Re:With all due respect.... (Score:2)
Puzzle Pirates is great but I couldn't see spending money on it all the time. At least, not more than a couple bucks a month. I played during the beta when they didn't even have crafting or anything. When cr
Re:With all due respect.... (Score:2)
Ask any MMORPGer with experience before Wow and the newer generations and you'll get many more hits.
Re:With all due respect.... (Score:2)
The Garriots run NC Soft Austin and Robert is (I believe) on the board of directors for NC Soft Inc. NC Soft Austin publishes Lineage, Lineage II, City of Heros, City of Villains, Guild Wars, and soon, Auto Assault.
They will also be publishing Richard Garriot's next game (from his compan
Re:With all due respect.... (Score:3, Interesting)
So, while I respect the Garriotts tremendously for their single-playe
Re:With all due respect.... (Score:3, Interesting)
With respect to Tabula Rasa, my understanding was that they started over with it because the original idea was determined to be too confusing and too different when it was shown to people and less because it wasnt functional technologically. (what i mean is, it wasn
Re:With all due respect.... (Score:1)
I suppose you're saying that they've started with a "blank slate" then?
Re:With all due respect.... (Score:1)
No offence, that was just a real blast from the past for me.
Re:With all due respect.... (Score:2)
Oddly enough, I don't think they're nearly as different from text MUD's as people expected them to be (in the end, seeing something is not really all that much better than imagining it).
-Eric
Re:With all due respect.... (Score:1)
Re:With all due respect.... (Score:1)
Stronger than what? In what regard? How do you measure that? What metrics do you use to validate this claim? Can you cite validations or is this pr?
Re:With all due respect.... (Score:2)
A good offline comparison would be a small town vs. a large city. In general, "everyone knows everyone" in a small town, and it's harder for secrets to remain secrets within the community. In a larger city, you tend
Riiight.... (Score:2)
Sure, a good indy movie might be hard to find; your local streetcorner jazz musician might not get a strong following; Animal Planet might not get Super Bowl ratings, but they all exist, and they're all successful to one degree or another despite not having the
You will pay the price for your lack of vision (Score:5, Insightful)
Take A Tale in the Desert [wikipedia.org], for instance. It's an independently-developed game, published in online form only. The small development team has been maintaining the game for nearly three years off the $14 per month subscription fee from several hundred (perhaps a thousand or two) players at a time. Is this game a mega-super-ultra blockbuster? No, of course not. The market can only support a few of those at one time (though that'll increase as more people discover the genre). But is it successful? Definitely. It's not only stayed afloat for three years, but the enthusiasm of its subscribers and its developers continues to thrive.
Puzzle Pirates [wikipedia.org] is another good example of an indie MMOG that has achieved success in the market (as well as critical acclaim). And what's more, MUDs [wikipedia.org] are still around, some with dozens or hundreds of players daily experiencing freely-developed content. If Garriott were operating under valid assumptions, these MUDs would have died off long before WoW entered (and increased) the MMOG market.
Garriott is probably right that there's only room enough for a few World of Warcrafts or EverQuests or Lineages at a time. The expectation has grown that these games will require thousands of person-hours in development, and as customer expectations inflate, the costs for these games will eventually become prohibitive to all but larger media companies who can afford to bankroll such projects. But it demonstrates blindness to what's going on in the trenches to say that the market will suddenly close off to small developers with big visions.
His version of "successful" is different than your (Score:2)
While it can be argued what a successful mmog is it all comes down to what class of developer you are. To the indie, who arguably at the lower end of the spectrum a game with 1 to 2k subscribers is very successful; at the level they compete at. Where as you get to the level of where games like UO, EQ, and WOW are at and the whole meaning of successful changes.
Another view is that the situation of wh
Oblig. Simpsons (Score:1)
Interactive Entertainment Databases (Score:2)
Reminds me of this quote (Score:2)
it, but I predict that within 100 years, computers will
be twice as powerful, 10,000 times larger, and so expensive
that only the five richest kings of Europe will own them.
Price is the problem. (Score:1)
Re:Price is the problem. (Score:2)
Seriously, though, since MMOs are owned by so many different companies, having one subscription to all of them is quite unlikely to happen. EVER.
Re:Price is the problem. (Score:1)
Re:Price is the problem. (Score:1)
There can be only one! (Score:2)
Re:There can be only one! (Score:1)
Open source MMORPGs (Score:1)
Lol at "eternal lands" (Score:2)
I understand that "ga
my bet: lots of MMO's, big and small (Score:2)
Re:Richard Garriot: Industry Burnout (Score:3, Informative)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Garriott [wikipedia.org]
Of course, the indie scene will be spewing out dozens of MMORPGs of various quality levels every year from now until the end of time, but the number of companies that can compete with NCSoft may indeed g
Re:Richard Garriot: Industry Burnout (Score:3, Insightful)
I started to write a lengthy defense of NCSoft's games, but who gives a fuck what you or I think of them. They have millions of subscribers. In a discussion about the future of
Re:Richard Garriot: Industry Burnout (Score:3, Funny)
> industry because he hasn't worked in a store recently, or because
> his stores are full of cheap crap.
Actually, I think Sam Walton doesn't know anything about the retail industry because he's been dead for about 14 years now.
Chris Mattern
Re:Richard Garriot: Industry Burnout (Score:2)
Don't underestimate him. He's very driven.
-Eric