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XBox (Games)

Analyst Sees 12 Million 360s by Year End 74

Next Generation has a piece predicting the 360's performance for 2006. An analyst with Amtech Research expects 12 Million 360s sold worldwide by the end of the year. From the article: "He continued, saying that he is no longer concerned with any potential adverse effects that an Xbox 360 shortage would have on publishers' March-quarter results. Amtech and McNealy also conducted a survey involving 125 retailers last week. Twenty-six of them had Xbox 360 units in stock, although all but five of them only had the non-hard drive Core units. Stores that did have the $400 Premium Packs late last week sold out of units very quickly."
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Analyst Sees 12 Million 360s by Year End

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  • by Rob T Firefly ( 844560 ) on Tuesday February 28, 2006 @04:43PM (#14820417) Homepage Journal
    I decided to employ my own preferred research method, which I feel comparable to the one employed in TFA on every level.

    The icosahedron came up "Reply hazy, ask again later."
  • by ivan256 ( 17499 ) * on Tuesday February 28, 2006 @04:43PM (#14820419)
    When one analyst says something that is vastly different than what everybody else is saying, that is *not* a cue to publish sensationalst news stories, that is your clue to ignore the crackpot.

    When many analysts agree, then they're probably on to something.

    I know this is the exact oposite of how news sites operate now, but please, for the sake of flame wars everywhere, fix it!
    • by PFI_Optix ( 936301 ) on Tuesday February 28, 2006 @04:46PM (#14820440) Journal
      When many analysts agree, then they're probably on to something.

      I always thought it was "when many analysts agree, you should run for the hills because the world is ending."
    • When many analysts agree, then they're probably on to something.

      I disagree. Look at Enron. Every analyst with the exception of two (one of which got fired for his opinion) said Enron was doing great. It was the few who actually bothered to look at something other than the party line that were on to something. With Sonys PS3 launch delayed, I can believe 360s will do much better than previously anticipated.

      • With Sonys PS3 launch delayed, I can believe 360s will do much better than previously anticipated.
        You're basing that on an analyst's report, right?
        • by ArwynH ( 883499 )
          Sony have admited to that the launch in Japan might be delayed due to the Blue-Ray specs not being finalised, so there is more than just the analysts word on it in this case.
          • Sony has stated that the PS3 might be delayed in Japan due to the lack of finality of the Blu-Ray spec. This might have some impact on the resoundind success the Xbox 360 has been in Japan; however, I doubt that the delay (if indeed it does occur) will have any impact on the US launch.
            • You play the delay(with is more or less definite, if they were still aiming for a spring release, they'd of demonstrated a working proto-type by now) down too much. It will have an amazing affect on xbox 360 sales in Japan! They might even reach 3 figures!!! :)
    • Or it's your clue to more closely examine what that analyst is saying, to see if he's actually a crackpot or maybe he's seen something/thought of something in a different way and might have a good idea.

      But ignoring him shouldn't happen until the evidence is weighed. Ignoring someone who doesn't agree with the herd leads to group-think and lots of missed opportunities.

      • I agree with you in principle.

        I don't think the people who are writing and linking to these stories are willing to do that much work though. If they need a litmus test to see if it's worth parroting what joe-analyst says, at least they could use one that is more effective than what they're doing now.
    • When many analysts agree, then they're probably on to something.

      Microsoft's payroll, for example.
    • When many analysts agree, then they're probably on to something.

      Since reporters, analysts and pretty much anybody in the publishing industry loves to copy each other's reports (hey, just look how many people (inside and outside the press) claim that the PS3 will cost $ 900. - And that was the result of an adding mistake which could be pretty easily seen) that doesn't mean anything at all.

      • hey, just look how many people (inside and outside the press) claim that the PS3 will cost $ 900

        That was *one* analyst at Merryl Lynch Japan. There were several dozen news stories that published the report. That's an example of what I'm saying, not an argument against it.
  • ...if I were in the habit of putting mushrooms in my tea.

  • Amtech Research stocks soar with a report that they recently received a large "investment" in their business from microsoft.
  • by WillAffleckUW ( 858324 ) on Tuesday February 28, 2006 @04:58PM (#14820604) Homepage Journal
    1. who paid the analyst or his firm?

    2. why would anyone ditch their xBox for an xBox360 when it runs so many fewer games? why not just wait until the price drops?

    3. this assumes people aren't waiting until the PS3 and NR come out - which they are. I have an xBox, and I'm not planning on buying an xBox360 and see no reason to change my decision, unless I compare all three consoles and decide the games I want are only on the 360. but that's not looking likely right now.

    You can project all you like, but if your lightbulb is burnt out in the projector, it won't matter.
    • I'll buy a 360 when Oblivion is out.

      Side note: Who do we have to kill to get the XMBC team to release a commercial XB360 version?
      • Side note: Who do we have to kill to get the XMBC team to release a commercial XB360 version?

        Best hope we have is that new game with the big guns. I think the 360 platform was killed for lack of Must Have games.
      • XBMC is under the GPL, it's based on MPlayer [mplayerhq.hu], it's unlikely we will ever see any GPL software on a MS console without modding. IF Sony does allow Linux on the PS3, then you can expect to see some great media players for the PS3.

        XBMC is freaking awesome.
        • Considering Sony's nearly insane attitude towards DRM and their obssession with control issues, there is NO WAY they would ever allow this. They work their butts off to ensure that the PSP can't be modded or even improved on, even though IT WOULD ACTUALLY SELL BETTER IF THEY DID. They would rather take a financial hit than to even allow someone to develop a web browser for it. Does that sound like a company that's going to make it easy to write multimedia software for their console?


          • Bit fanatic?

            Sony makes little to no money on the PSP hardware, but makes MAJOR moola on the software. If someone did make a good webbrowser for the PSP, Sony would gladly allow them to sell it.

            The PS3 is in a far different situation; Sony can't stop simple software from being written for it. Even if Sony doesn't leave a way to run code natively, anyone can still use Blu-Ray's Java layer to write simple games, or even a media player. Blu-Ray's Java has built-in codecs to play MPEG-2, H.264, and VC-1 and
    • This assumes people aren't waiting until the PS3 and NR come out - which they are.

      Yes and no. While some people have already made up their mind about the 360 vs. the PS3 vs. the Revolution (read: everyone posting on the internet), most people I think will wait until there's more information on the PS3/NR. Right now, real information on the PS3/NR is about as rare as finding a real non-crippled 360 in stores. Let's say the PS3 launch disappoints: Sony at E3 says the console will be out definitely on January

    • I did for better Media Center Extender capabilities including: -Not needing to load a CD to run Extender -Not having to switch Discs when done watching a DVD -Being able to turn the unit on and off with the remote. I could have gotten a stand alone Extender with no DVD playback for $300, but $400 for an Extender that has DVD built in and can play "Next gen" games as well as the majority of X-Box games that I already owned made it an easy choice.
  • 1) People who want a 360 want the full thing, not a half pint version.

    2) The only way I think anyone will see 12million 360s is in a very big warehouse.

    MS have slipped for now with this one, the world and their dog are either waiting for the ps3, or just think what they have now suffices and however ridiculously expensive a 360 is is just too much.
  • considering Microsoft's wonderfully successful, indeed, almost Apple-esque, efforts to control supply, I want to know who can actually buy these things?

    I certainly am not buying them....

  • 12 million, eh? (Score:3, Interesting)

    by Hamster Lover ( 558288 ) * on Tuesday February 28, 2006 @05:10PM (#14820757) Journal
    So, is Microsoft is going to send the 11 million 360s from Japan that aren't selling to North America by year's end? I honestly don't understand how analysts could extrapolate for the end of the year; these numbers are just pulled out of their asses.

    I think most people that really, really want the 360 by now have one and the rest of us that are curious and would buy one on impulse are SOL. Yes, if you're dilligent you can find one as most of my local big box stores seem to get about 25 a week, or you could buy one from the ass raping local video game store that have them marked up 25%.

    I still think supply issues are hurting 360 sales and will continue to hurt them for a while to come. Mark my words, 360 sales will be no where near 12 million by year's end.
  • Halo 2 sold around 5-7 million copies, the PS3 is aparently not showing up this year, so considering Halo 3 is "maybe" coming this year and the hype is going to be huge for it, we can expect around 6-8 million world wide sales (12 is quite optimistic but not totally impossible) Next year, with the PS3 and the revolution in the scene, is not so safe to predict good numbers. Now 1 BILLION xbox live users this year (the estimated in E3) thats totally farfetched.
    • While games do sell consoles a single game selling 5 million consoles is unprecedented (except maybe for Tetris). Halo 2 sold as much because people already had the console and those who had the console were mostly people who enjoyed Halo. Halo 2 was a 50$ investment, for Halo 3 to sell this much it would have to be at least a 390$ investment for most people (assuming a game price of 50$ which could be too low and that they'll buy a memory card, add controllers, XBox Live!, etc as appropriate). Most people
  • and your evidence? (Score:2, Interesting)

    by xtieburn ( 906792 )
    Im actually a bit of a fan of the 360.

    That said, where on Earth are they pulling these figures. The fact of the matter is that they didnt reach targets. It is not clear if that was just inventory or not. While its likely to be just something to do with shortages how can you jump from 'Oh it was just shortages' to 'The're going to do really well.'

    The only piece of evidence they seem to have is that the 360 is going to reach 4.5 to 5 million units by June according to... Microsoft. Not exactly an unbiassed so
    • The biggest problem with the Xbox 360 is it is not for sale anywhere. I have wanted one since release day. I don't want to buy a bundle - I just want to pay $400 and get an extra controller and one or two games. I cannot find one anywhere.
      • You would have had the same problem with the original X-Box. They were impossible to buy except in bundles with 2 or 3 games.

        Sure enough, a few months after release, Microsoft issued a press release saying that the X-Box had the highest rate of games purchased along with the console.

        You'll have to wait a few more months to get your bundle-free 360.

      • I agree. I use Xbox360 tracker and 90% of the online retailers have been sold out since the console came out (with the exception of some of the more ridiculous bundle sites). I've seen a few of the smaller bundles pop up now and again (Sears, for example, had a pretty good one with PGR and an extra controller) and then that I've considered, but within an hour they were always sold out.

        Maybe they are showing up on shelves in my area (Sacramento), but they aren't staying there long; there's never been one

  • well.. somebody's going to be very very dizzy...
  • by Digital Vomit ( 891734 ) on Tuesday February 28, 2006 @05:16PM (#14820832) Homepage Journal
    ...in a landfill somewhere in New Mexico [wikipedia.org].
  • Who are these guys dropping $400 on what is essentially a single purpose computer? Might as well get a high performace CPU and VGA, and some USB controllers and play on a PC. And I am saying this as someone who doesn't often play games on PC. Are these guys people with full time jobs, and few bills to pay or what? I sure could use some of that money they have to spare.
    • "Might as well get a high performace CPU and VGA, and some USB controllers and play on a PC."

      For $400?
    • A desktop PC is already a $1000+ dedicated gaming machine, because I do all my other activites at home on my laptop.

      Except, with my desktop PC, I had to buy the parts, put it together, keep the software running, and deal with hardware issues. And, unless I paid over $2000 to start with, parts of it are obsolete in nine months and won't play the next greatest game, unless I want to put more money into it.*

      With a game machine, you are getting a subsidized PC that can play lots of games. And you know that, a
    • Poor schmuck. Get a new job.

      I have a laptop for all my computer stuff. Doesn't have a killer video card, but it displays the internet well enough. So I just got a 360. $400? A BARGAIN for all it does. To all you haters out there -- it's a great piece of electronics. It really is.

      And A LOT more multi-purpose than a $400 video ipod. I don't see people having heart attacks over that.

    • Who are these guys dropping $400

      That's why they'll sell 12 million. After all, the 360 [columbia.edu] originally cost about $2 million each.

    • C'mon. Bill himself is buying few millions of them just to ignite buying hype and get game developers/publishers on board.

      Besides games and few rudimentary out-of-box functions, that proprietary box is pretty useless.

      One thing they probably didn't count is piracy. Buying hype might stagnate if ways to play pirated content won't be found (soon). In the past all popular console system were pirated, so noone knows what to expect if it isn't.
  • American Technology Research, Inc. currently has 60.7% of the securities under research coverage rate as BUY, 37.4% of the securities rated as HOLD, and 1.9% of the securities rates as SELL. -- Coverage list. [amtechresearch.com]

    Amtech is supposed to have a performance chart page [amtechresearch.com] where they show their past ratings and the matching stock prices. But a sizable fraction of the companies on the list, like Ask Jeeves and AT&T Wireless Services, are no longer separate companies. Generally not for good reasons.

    Peter Lynch,

  • It's because of people like this [ebay.com], who go into the local Target or Walmart and buy every system that comes in, just to try to make a little money on Ebay.
    • Meh...eBay idiots like the one linked to by the parent really irritate me. For those consumers that would consider the 360 as a impulse/semi-impulse buy (as in, I've contemplated buying one but only when I find a Platinum system not in a bundle in a store) these people end up causing more harm than good in the overall life of the system. A friend recently bought a 360 off of one of these eBay people and only paid a 20 or 30 dollar premium over the normal 399 price tag. The guy admitted to him that he is
  • Analyst Sees 12 Million 360s by Year End

    Also sees swirls of colors and "really groovy things."

  • It's definitely time for me to start up that business as an analyst. Who's with me?

    Electronic Arts will be bankrupt by June.
    Nintendo's revolution controller is actually a light-up yo-yo.
    Sony drops NVidia as graphics chip developer to go with Mattel, using technology based off the Intellivision.

    Now all somebody has to do is submit these as Slashdot stories and get back to me.
  • I was an xBox Live beta tester, and I loved the console. Last week, I let my xBox Live account lapse for good. I only use my xBox as an MCE extender now (a role in which it excels, by the way). Why turn my back on the xBox? Quite frankly, having bought in excess of 20 games for it, and played it since release (inlcuding online). In the end, I don't feel I got my money's worth from it. The good games were few and far between. Improvements to the console and the online service, equally few and far between
  • Analyst Sees 12 Million 360s by Year End
    That's nothing. I once knew a kid who saw dead people.
  • by RealmRPGer ( 889362 ) on Tuesday February 28, 2006 @10:38PM (#14823528)
    They way I hear it, the 360 actually didn't do very well because...it didn't do very well. The ONLY actual shortages were in big cities. My hometown always had plenty of units in stock, and MS sold 800,000 of a possible 4 million units thus far. If you've been keeping up, a lot of a companies, including EA and Activision, have recently had large layoffs. MS wants to tell you it's because of a slow gaming season, but if you check things out more closely, you'll noticed that the divisions were next-gen divisions...in particular, 360 development. The companies realized the 360 wasn't doing so hot, so they pulled funding and placed the money in more reliable venues.

Someone is unenthusiastic about your work.