The New (Computer) Chess World Champion 107
An anonymous reader writes: The 7th Thoresen Chess Engines Competition (TCEC) has ended, and a new victor has been crowned: Komodo. The article provides some background on how the different competitive chess engines have been developed, and how we can expect Moore's Law to affect computer dominance in other complex games in the future.
"Although it is coming on 18 years since Deep Blue beat Kasparov, humans are still barely fending off computers at shogi, while we retain some breathing room at Go. ... Ten years ago, each doubling of speed was thought to add 50 Elo points to strength. Now the estimate is closer to 30. Under the double-in-2-years version of Moore's Law, using an average of 50 Elo gained per doubling since Kasparov was beaten, one gets 450 Elo over 18 years, which again checks out. To be sure, the gains in computer chess have come from better algorithms, not just speed, and include nonlinear jumps, so Go should not count on a cushion of (25 – 14)*9 = 99 years."
"Although it is coming on 18 years since Deep Blue beat Kasparov, humans are still barely fending off computers at shogi, while we retain some breathing room at Go. ... Ten years ago, each doubling of speed was thought to add 50 Elo points to strength. Now the estimate is closer to 30. Under the double-in-2-years version of Moore's Law, using an average of 50 Elo gained per doubling since Kasparov was beaten, one gets 450 Elo over 18 years, which again checks out. To be sure, the gains in computer chess have come from better algorithms, not just speed, and include nonlinear jumps, so Go should not count on a cushion of (25 – 14)*9 = 99 years."
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Like what?
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i'd say go, probably. the rules are more minimal; the state space is larger and more connected with fewer dead-ends and "gotchas"; and it seems just as difficult/competitive. it's not unreasonable to think that games with more rules will tend to produce more specialized skills, and that specialized skills are inferior to general skills as far as "brain development" (whatever that means) is concerned.
also, dual n-back is supposedly shown to increase general intelligence rather than just skill. it's not exact
Re:Playing chess (Score:4, Informative)
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there is also the visual pattern aspect, where a player will look for moves that make "good shape", or will look for other patterns on the board that have their own traits.
Chess is the same.
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Yeah, they both have spatial components, but go is basically nothing else. There are no distinct pieces with special rules; practically all of the strategy is from spatial arrangements without obvious shortcut heuristics. Counting material doesn't work so well and neither does combinatorially forcing your opponent.
This isn't to say that go is better than chess, and i definitely think the left/right-brain distinction is overrated, but they are not "the same."
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well, yes, and so is all of life, if you want to think of it that way. what's your point?
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you either don't get it, or are being purposely obtuse. i have no patience either way.
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Big Data for chess (Score:4, Interesting)
I would be curious to see how an algorithm based on millions of actual games fares against a pure mathematical model. "Based on your interest in taking queens with a pawn, you might be interested into taking a bishop with your rook".
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Or ... "It looks like you're possibly planning to sacrifice your bishop to the opponent's rook." Click here to see the usual counter.
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Is it bad I mentally saw the message appearing in a speech balloon from Clippy?
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Clippy is the only one still speaking to me.
Re:Big Data for chess (Score:4, Insightful)
I always wondered, why does it become evermore more pressing as we get closer to home? As my ass lands on the toilet it seems it couldn't have waited even one more second before exploding.
It's a manifestation of enantiodromia. In layman's terms, the sudden availability of the toilet causes a paradigm shift as the quest is now fulfilled; the subject decathects from his need for restraint but cognitive dissonance (or more accurately: an availability heuristic bias) usually misleads him into discarding the crossing of the motivational inflection point and to falsely believe that he couldn't have waited longer.
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You misunderstand the point at which the paradigm is shifting. This is not a matter of physical contact, this is a matter of confidence threshold.
Also if you experience incidents like that more than once every 6 years, you should reconsider your allegiance to taco bell and/or indian buffets.
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I would be curious to see how an algorithm based on millions of actual games fares against a pure mathematical model.
Poorly, unless you have a new algorithm the world hasn't seen yet. Presumably there's a way to do it (because humans do it), but so far no one's figured out how to get a computer to do it.
Big Data for chess (Score:1)
You mean like what the runner up is already doing? http://stockfishchess.org/get-... [stockfishchess.org]
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That's not the same, that's like those blackjack simulators that nobody every got rich with.
The point of big data is to spot trends in actual events, not compute simulation results. Especially if the simulation is performed with the same algorithm working both sides.
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The strategy (long-term planning and positioning) is where computers are weaker. Not weak, but weaker.
Once the end game is reached a large database of positions is used. (Humans effectively do this too, in the s
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This applies to computer vs computer situations. Once you put a human in the mix, it's a whole different situation because the frame of reference is different.
You can't predict what you don't understand. That's why a chess computer that uses past human games to make decisions would be, in my opinion, a pretty nasty opponent.
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You just took my knight. You won't believe what happens next!
Check out this one weird trick with a pawn.
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why bother with theoretical games? Just pre-calculate a lookup table that tells you every move you should make in every situation.
Re: Big Data for chess (Score:2)
Because the lookup table would have to have ~ 10^46 entries.
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you sure about that?
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That has been tried with computer Go. It turns out that you can make a computer very, very good at predicting what moves top-level players will make, and still fail abysmally at making a strong program.
chess championship (Score:5, Interesting)
Also, from the post I learned about a game called Arimaa [arimaa.com], which was designed to be hard for computers but easy for people. There is a bet that no computer will be able to beat a human, and you can win thousands of dollars if you do. So far it's apparently not even close. Also, got this great quote: "It’s not that chess is 99% tactics, it’s just that tactics takes up 99% of your time."
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You can blog in LaTeX!?
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Arimaa might make an interesting turing test. Your sig made me think of captain Paul Watson of the Sea Shepard telling the story of the time he got a job testing the intelligence of a captive orca. The orca got all answers right immediately after training, then suddenly started getting them all wrong. Paul realized the Orca was testing him, too.
Moore never said clock speed. 64 bit twice 32 bit (Score:4, Insightful)
Moore never said anything about clock speed. He said the number of transistors. A CPU with more transistors can compute a complex problem faster. There is a science to trying to come up with problems that aren't solvable faster with more transistors (even at the same clock), but those problems are rare in the real world. Today's 3Ghz processor is faster than a 3 GHz processor from five years ago.
Recently, the big improvements have come from organizing the increased transistors into increased cores. Today's 8-core CPU can analyze eight moves at once. The older dual-core system could only analyze two moves at once. Therefore, the 8-core system is four times as fast, on a parallel problem like this.*
* Actually even better than four times, because a fractional core is needed to manage the overall process. The dual core chip could analyze 1.5 moves simultaneously, the 8-core can analyze seven simultaneously.
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There is a science to trying to come up with problems that aren't solvable faster with more transistors (even at the same clock)
It's not hard, anything with linear dependencies. If you have to solve step A before moving on to step B, then it doesn't matter how many cores you have, they all have to wait until step A is solved.
parallel all A, all B. Also branch prediction etc (Score:3)
If you have to solve A before B, you can work all possible A in parallel, then all possible B in parallel. More cores is better.
Also, just because you have to solve step A before you can solve step B doesn't mean you can't START working on B, such as solving B for likely values of A, storing them in a lookup table, then selecting the precomputed answer from A. In fact I won a prize doing exactly that with my software playing a game against humans.
>. It's not hard.
Harder than it first appears, we just
PS, also compute symmetrys of B on A (Score:3)
PS, the other thing I did (successfully) was pre-compute symmetry of A and B, so I knew that any value of A in this list would give the same result in B. So I didn't have to compute the value of B, after I knew A I only had to select which bucket it was in to get the value of B.
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Harder than it first appears, we just demonstrated.
I'm not going to write a full proof. If you can't figure it out based on what I wrote, you are a moron.
Clearly however, you can figure it out, because you are reasoning about the topic clearly. You just like to argue.
indeed your not (Score:2)
>. I'm not going to write a full proof
Of course you're not, because you'd be trying to prove that it's impossible to do the things that we do all the time. I just showed that you're OBVIOUSLY wrong, so it would be pretty silly to try to write a formal proof otherwise.
When you discover that an idea you once had was mistaken, you can either a) get butt-hurt or b) learn something.
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Show me a computer chess program.... (Score:2)
Because really, the fact that a computer can beat the best human players at chess just by analyzing millions upon millions of board combinations is no more surprising than the fact that even a small child can figure out how to never lose when playing tic tac toe.
Re:Show me a computer chess program.... (Score:5, Informative)
I'm not sure where you got the idea that chess is solved, but we're still a looong way from solving chess. We have only solved chess with 7 pieces, not the full 32, and unless quantum computers arrive in force, we have no shot at solving it in our lifetimes.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S... [wikipedia.org]
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Even if it wouldn't be a mathematical proof, for practical purposes the potential would be tapped out if the top computers started drawing all the time. I just checked an in the "superfinal" between the top two 11 out of 64 rounds ended in a victory, 7 in favor of the strongest and 4 in favor of the other. That's a pretty good indication there's potential for improvement.
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To reply to both parent and grandparent:
Moore's law has not made this development possible, algorithm breakthroughs has. Pocket Fritz managed to beat grandmaster despite only being able to evaluate some 30,000 positions per second (which is a factor 100 from what other engines are able to do).
In 2005 the top engine Fruit was made open source. From there a huge amount of tricks and techniques were revealed, combined and improved upon. All top engines today are Fruit clones/derivatives (some allegedly even on
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Neural net-based Go programs have been tried countless times since neural nets were invented, and losing to GNU Go 20 out of 200 games is very very far from state of the art. I don't know which version of Fuego they used, but if it was rated 4-5k it must have been an old and weak one. It's currently rated 2d on KGS.
Worth noting that KGS is stingy on ratings, and especially hard on bots since matches are self-selected. If there's an exploitable weakness in a bot, people will ruthlessly mine it for rating.
Th
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No it isn't. Far far from it.
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As a chess player, I just had to stop and laugh this down.
Show me a human grandmaster, (or even a B-class player) who can play without all the knowledge they have remembered.
Show me a human who can consider a problem, and restrict their thinking to only a few hundred connections between different brain cells.
Show me a human who can temporarily forget everything they know and approach problems using only a single class of algorithm.
The only "chess player" who can play the way you'd hobble the computer is som
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They do, though. Grandmasters know tens of thousands of games by memory and on sight.
My friend is a FM (FIDE Master) which is 2 levels below Grandmaster, and he remembers not only all the games he ever played, but also many thousands of games he has studied, and thousands more of other players who were playing in tournaments at the same time.
Computers are even better at this, but the idea that a human can get even to the 90th percentile in chess without memorizing anything is absurd. Very often a player at
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Human players generalize from their experience, they do not explicitly recount every game they have ever played in order to exercise their knowledge from that experience. A grandmaster may only explicitly consider a few hundred actual board combinations, on any given turn.
You're just wrong, and you're clearly outside your expertise. They do explicitly recount all their games, and the games of their chess friends, and the notable historical games, and the notable games in the openings they play. Higher level grandmasters remember games that they studied for a couple days during preparation for a match a decade ago, and will play those lines in future games if the position comes up. If you knew, you'd know this.
A grandmaster doesn't know how many "board positions" his brain ac
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You are aware, I assume, that a few dozen can easily exceed a hundred. The several hundred I mentioned may be admittedly have been very generous, but my point was that grandmasters don't ever have to evaluate every board combination the way computers do. In fact, a modern computer can sometimes consider more board variations in even a single move during a single game than a chess player may have seen in their entire lifetime
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The computer is not any more aware of the millions of calculations it is doing than the human is. In fact, I'd say the human is aware of a larger number of explicit calculations. I'd also point out, this is obvious.
The computer calculations are "explicit" to the human programmer, sure. But in the same way, a physiologist might consider the entire human process of calculations to be explicit. Then you're stuck with the reality that the human mind is doing a large number of analog calculations, where each cal
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Although the brain can be likened to a massively parallel computer, humans cannot perform calculations as fast as a digital computer, so there is no basis to presume that humans are considering considerably more than the few dozen or so positions that grandmasters are typically assumed to analyze before making a move
And this point cannot be emphasized enough... even though the grandmaster considers such a small set of positions, the grandmaster plays at an *EXCELLENT* level, while any computer that were
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If you could program a computer with every chess game ever made, and then have it make generalizations from those games so that it was capable of recognizing patterns that occur in other games, being able to recognize potential winning strategies from a given board position, only analyzing a few dozen or so moves in advance during any actual game, just as a chess grandmaster does, and *STILL* be able to beat any human player.... then you'll have something.
Straight assertion with no apparent point. WTF does "have something" mean here? You can't claim the human analyzes only a few dozen things during the game. An fMRI will blow that one up in an instant. (BTW, the chess community already has seen that scan and the analysis and we know the answer, this isn't speculation or opinion) And the computer is aware of exactly 0 calculations. So your only real point is that humans are minimally aware of ourselves and that we have thought processes. Except, we don't unde
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They are good at memorizing chess games because chess games make profound sense to them. The more you understand the why's of a chess move, the easier it is to remember it. They aren't good at memorizing arbitrary stuff, and being good at memorizing arbitrary stuff won't help you much getting good at chess.
Playing from randomized positions, computers are vastly better than humans, since they don't rely on "moves making sense" the same way. Go programs (which are a lot weaker than the best humans) trounce hu
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Chess software also does not remember arbitrary stuff. ;)
It could. But so could the human, if the reason stopped being arbitrary.
There are a lot of theories why Go computers are weak. I saw one analysis that compared the amount of effort to the amount of success, chess vs go. I don't have a link, but the conclusion was that go computers are actually just as far along as chess computers were with similar total effort.
General artificial intelligence? (Score:2)
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No. They win by crunching data. What we have learned is what games humans are still better at. I would say chess research is no longer AI research. The new horizon is figuring out how to beat humans at the games humans are still better at. That is how they'll get closer to humans.
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I don't get your point. I doubt anyone here thinks that.
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But is it best at beating humans? (Score:2)
I wonder if there is a difference between the best engine at beating other engines and the best engine at beating humans. Obviously, you need to put them on low powered machines to bring them down to the level of occasionally losing to humans to check.
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They pretty much beat humans everytime. You may not get statistically significant results among the top chess engines.
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I wonder if there is a difference between the best engine at beating other engines and the best engine at beating humans.
Yes. I spent a lot of time watching this event and in the chat this subject came up more than a few times in various flavors.
Probably the most important of the factors involved here is that these chess engines use a symmetric evaluation function. In layman's terms this means that they evaluate a given position the same regardless of which side the engine is actually playing. An anti-human optimal evaluation function would also consider which side of the board a human is playing on. Open positions greatly
A computer beat me at chess once (Score:2)
Not original, I read that somewhere not 30 minutes ago.
Mr. Don Dailey (Score:4, Interesting)
I am disappointed to see only one mention of late Don Dailey in TFA. He is actually the guy who wrote the whole thing. I had followed his posts for years in computer go mailing list. I have learned a lot from him as an R&D engineer in an unrelated field (chemical industry). While many people adopted "improvements" only because it made sense to them, Mr. Dailey had a very systematic and methodological approach to changing the program. He had ideas and insights for improvement like many others, but he never fell in love with his own ideas. If something did not work, it did not. No matter how plausible it seemed. He also had most patience I have seen of an online person. He would carry on discussions long after it was obvious the other party was not paying enough attention or was simply stupid. He did this almost to the day he died.
Congrats Mr. Dailey. You have done it.
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Congrats Mr. Dailey. You have done it.
He's done it twice now. Komodo was also the winner of the TCEC Season 5 final against Stockfish. Mr Dailey passed away just after Komodo had made it to the final, but unfortunately, just too soon to witness the result.
Contender for years (Score:2)
komodo won but it has been the main contender with stockfish for a while. I think it has been number two in the last two or three tourneys
closed source (Score:2)
Stockfish is only slightly weaker, and is open source.
What's the point of closed source chess engines when a lot of engines are already far stronger than humans? Who's going to pay the money for a closed-source chess engine? Idiots? A grandmaster may want it to study its playing "style", and chess algorithm researchers might want it to study it, and other chess engine designers might want it to reverse engineer it, but there's no practical reason for even a strong chess player to buy chess engines anymor
shogi? (Score:1)