Fallout From the November Console Wars 182
All three 'next generation' consoles are out, and we can finally stop using that term. The NPD numbers for last month have been released, and there's plenty of information there to discuss. Analysts have already made some observations, with brandintel specifically pointing out the Xbox 360's 'surprising' role in last month's fight. For some more well-reasoned thought, Dean Takahashi's take is the place to turn: "At this rate, Microsoft isn't going to hit its goal of 10 million units by year end ... Sony's number is consistent with its warnings, but 197,000 is worse than what many expected ... the fair fight is really going to be what happens in the year 2007, when all three console makers should be able to ship as many consoles as consumers want. To me, this looks like consumers are hit with a case of sticker shock. The mass market is paying for cheap PS2s, DS Lites, and GBAs." Despite the Wii's success last month, it should be noted that Nintendo is no longer bragging of 1 Million units in the U.S. by the end of the year. So, essentially, it looks like all three companies will fail to hit their console goals for the year.
Remedial geography (Score:5, Interesting)
*Cough* Europe.
Despite the Wii's success last month, it should be noted that Nintendo is no longer bragging of 1 Million units in the U.S. by the end of the year. So, essentially, it looks like all three companies will fail to hit their console goals for the year.
That was for 'The Americas'.
One more system (Score:2, Interesting)
Sticker shock for sure (Score:5, Interesting)
I'd like to get a Wii, and I have a reasonable chance of both affording and getting my hands on one at some point soon. However, right now, I'm actually considering getting a new GBA SP, because I have a lot of games I like for GBA, and an SP is a lot easier to carry around than even the new DS Lite (and a lot easier than my original recipe DS). And a second PS2 to backup my current box, so I can play all the good PS2 games that are now showing up in bargain bins before they become collectors items. Once the price comes down to something resembling reasonable, I'll get a PS3, and maybe even an Xbox 360, but it's got a LONG way to fall before it gets there.
impossible business model (Score:2, Interesting)
Re:Couldnt be worse for Sony (Score:3, Interesting)
Sure, the game looks beautiful, amazing even. But to jaded gamers or casual gamers there isn't enough there to draw in anyone who wouldn't have already been drawn in already. I personally picked it up, played it for about 10 minutes, said "neat", and put it down. I'll get back to it when I have more time.
When I picked up Wii Sports, on the other hand, I said "neat", and I couldn't put it down.
There is a huge difference here.
Gears of War isn't going to expand the 360 much further beyond the existing gaming crowd. Wii Sports will.
On the other hand, there is a lot to be said about stores actualy having 360's and Gears of War in stock. Because, you know, you can actually get those if you want 'em. Of course, you can also get a PS2 and FF12 or Guitar Hero II as well... for less money.
And the loser is... (Score:2, Interesting)
Looks like the last gen is winning the next gen war.
Re:Analysts (Score:4, Interesting)
ah, but apple wanted faster iterations of PPCs every 6 months. What they got was a 700 MHz upgrade in 1.8 years, and then the top speed got cut back by 200 MHz to make room for dual core CPUs. Nintendo, Sony, and Microsoft all have PPC specs set in stone for the next 5 or 6 years. much more compatible with IBM's slow pace of consumer chip upgrades.
Stop calling. (Score:1, Interesting)
They had seven Wiis when I bought mine, but when people called while I was checking out, the clerk said they didn't have them. The staff knew by the time anybody on the phone got down there the systems would already be gone. Then EB would have to deal with several dozen pissed-off Wii fans who'd been "promised" a Wii.
They also know that if they tell people the day before that the systems are coming in, they'll have to deal with that line-up mess. Best Buy doesn't mind that because they got a huge store full of other consumer crap. Disappointed customers are, for them, people who might buy a DS and a whole bunch of games "just in case" they can't get a Wii for Johnny. Places like EB and Zeller's don't want to put up with the shit, so they just bring 'em in and sell them to walk-ins.
Re:impossible business model (Score:2, Interesting)
Nintendo is taking a mind blowing risk. I certainly could not have concieved of them agreeing to this type of risk when conteplating their next move after the Gamecube. The problem is the Wii is more novel than inovative. Both Sony and Microsoft can easily produce a competing controller which could devalue the Wii's uniqueness. Compounding this is the fact that PS3 and 360 games will on average look spectacularly better because of the graphics power houses built into both of them. The sales for the Wii should be supported by demand in Japan which will keep it going but I don't see them dominating anywhere else. Let's face it everyone likes the cutting edge graphics when selecting games and the screen shots of Twilight princess provided the proof for me to wait for the gamecube version. The Wii will soon be looking like last gen once the novel controller wears off. When you adopt HD TV would you rather have a Wii or a PS3/Xbox360? By the way HD sets are on schedule to hit the consumer sweet spot within the next two years.
The Xbox360 got off to a rough start but it seems to be fairing much better than their competitor's launches. The 360 has struggled with the slow growth of sales which coincides with the slow release of major hits. Though Xbox Live is at the top of the hill it requires a subscription where it's competitors do not. Despite all these weaknesses it's competitors will be confounded by about an 8 million unit lead; hardware performance that should equal the PS3; difficulty in differentiating themselves from the well funded Xbox Live; and the looming possibility of a price drop in 2007.
Also Keep in mind that most of the sales of consoles happen in the last 2/3rds of it's lifespan where the Wii will certainly be viewed as long in the tooth. For me the Wii is the worst choice this gen and only the PS3 and 360 should be considered.
I don't own any next gen yet but am planning to buy an 360 at the first price drop in 2007. I can't imagine the PS3 will see a price drop anytime soon but like you said we may be surprised this spring.
I bought a DS Lite (new) and a GameCube (used) (Score:3, Interesting)
For myself I'm getting a (new) DS Lite which I'll be able to play on the train every day. Unlike the Wii, no accessories are necessary, so the $117 I paid for it (shipped) from buy.com is all I have to pay for it other than games. Lots of great games are available for it for little money, including a thriving used market. Indeed, even new games are only $30 to $35, compared to $50 for Wii/360/PS3. Before long new titles drop to $20. I picked up used/complete copies of Meteos and Madden '05 for about $19 total (including shipping). I'm also getting Gunpei DS (new) for $20. So all told it sets us back about $156 for the DS Lite (new) and 3 good games (2 used/complete, one new.)
Total for both the complete GameCube setup and the complete DS setup was about $296. That's less than the price of core-version Xbox 360 alone and less than a Wii with one extra set of controllers (pretty much a necessity.) The Wii is no doubt a ton of fun and better than the GameCube, and unlike the 360 and PS3 seems to offer new/fun gameplay, but I'd rather have a nice system for my kids and a nice portable system for myself that I can actually use, not to mention lots of games to play on both of them. Some day I will get a Wii, in part because it will be able to play the GameCube games we'll have, but there's no hurry. At the earliest it will be next Christmas, when the price will have dropped, there will be a used games market, and new games will better utilize the system.