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GameCube (Games) PlayStation (Games) XBox (Games) Entertainment Games

Gloomy Outlook For Console Sales 39

Thanks to CNET News for their article indicating sales of consoles are predicted to slump until a new crop of machines is introduced. The article references a new survey from iSuppli which "expects [console] sales to be flat for the year and down as much as 10 percent in 2005", and points out that pressure will start to build to introduce next-gen hardware, quoting an analyst as saying "I don't think (that), when the companies developed this generation of consoles, they were prepared for it to be so short."
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Gloomy Outlook For Console Sales

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  • by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 04, 2003 @07:42AM (#6867696)
    ... and only a handful of good games for each.
  • NES (Score:5, Funny)

    by Phoenix Dreamscape ( 205064 ) on Thursday September 04, 2003 @07:47AM (#6867728) Homepage
    Breaking news: NES sales down 100%! Decrease blamed on church vandals.
  • Price Cuts (Score:3, Interesting)

    by dafoomie ( 521507 ) <dafoomie@@@hotmail...com> on Thursday September 04, 2003 @07:47AM (#6867731) Homepage
    If they cut the prices down for the Xmas buying season, they should get a surge of sales followed by a bigger slump after January. But the increased number of consoles sold will increase the number of games being bought. Gamecube has never been a major factor. They shipped 80,000 units this quarter. 80,000? The other two are projecting 20-24 million for the year, Nintendo will be lucky to get 3 million out the door. Hmm, "temporarily stopped production to clear excess inventory". Sound familiar Dreamcast fans?
    • Re:Price Cuts (Score:2, Insightful)

      by EvilOpie ( 534946 ) *
      I find it amusing just how many people have been saying that the GameCube is dying. This sounds worse than the BSD is dying posts, and that still isn't dead yet. People also seem to forget that the worldwide sales of the GameCube are still outselling the Xbox, even if only by just a bit.

      Seriously now... Nintendo didn't get to be a multi-billion dollar company by making bad business moves. Now while the GC may be behind the PS2 in total sales and the Xbox in American sales, I'd still bet money that i
      • Re:Price Cuts (Score:3, Informative)

        by Gr33nNight ( 679837 )
        In Japan, Nintendo for the first time sold more consoles last week than Sony. Yes, it was only by 300, and yes it was because of Namcos Tales of Phantasia game, but it shows that the GC will sell if decent 3rd party games are created for it.

        BTW, you are correct in your assumption about profit. The GC makes Nintendo cash on each sale, not like MS which loses money.
    • Re:Price Cuts (Score:5, Informative)

      by edwdig ( 47888 ) on Thursday September 04, 2003 @08:59AM (#6868315)
      There's no way Microsoft is project 20-24 million for the year. The Xbox has been out for 2 years already and it's sold maybe half that. Do you really expect the remaining 4 months of the year to equal the sales of the past 2 years? I'm sure Microsoft isn't expecting anywhere near that.

      Nintendo only shipped 80,000 units this past quarter because they shipped a huge number right before Zelda came out the quarter before. They expected Zelda to make a huge jump in system sales, unfortunately, it resulted in a barely noticable jump, hence an oversupply of GameCubes.

      Oh, take a look at the Japanese sales charts for the past few weeks. PS2 sales have been going down and GameCube sales have been going up. GameCube sales were higher than PS2 sales last week. Oh, and as tends to happen occasionally, the PS1 outsold the Xbox in Japan last week. Although the Xbox did beat the Wonderswan Crystal last week, it still couldn't beat the Wonderswan Crystal + Color models combined.
    • Re:Price Cuts (Score:3, Informative)

      by NetDanzr ( 619387 )
      I'd like to point out that according a recent UBS Warburg investment report, Nintendo is expected to slash GameCube prices to $99 as of October 1, and Microsoft is expected to came with a new two-game bundle with its X-Box for $179 by mid-September. Sony is not expected to lower the prices for PS 2, and UBS is sceptical whether they'll make their year-end sales numbers.
  • Makes sense... (Score:5, Insightful)

    by bjb ( 3050 ) * on Thursday September 04, 2003 @07:52AM (#6867768) Homepage Journal
    I wouldn't say that the market is completely saturated, but probably anyone who really wants a console (and can afford it) has one already. Then there are probably hold-outs (like myself) who own (say) a Dreamcast, are loving the idea of the cheap prices on the games and really see little need for "upgrading".

    Frankly, I see no reason to upgrade to an Xbox or PS2, because all the latest games that I've wanted (GTA3/VC) are available on the PC (which work beautifully with my Radeon 9500 Pro), and as far as the PS2 goes, the only advantage I've seen of it over my Dreamcast is that it has full scene anti-aliasing. Otherwise, I'm perfectly happy with my PC and Dreamcast for my gaming needs.. and I'm not paying $50 for the games (I don't buy many PC games, and DC is cheap).

    I will admit, however, that I'm tempted to get a GameCube, simply because they have some really high quality games available for that machine. I am just holding out for a little while longer, because it looks like they'll probably drop the price again on that device, and I'd rather buy new than used.

    • Frankly, I see no reason to upgrade to an Xbox or PS2, because all the latest games that I've wanted (GTA3/VC) are available on the PC (which work beautifully with my Radeon 9500 Pro), and as far as the PS2 goes, the only advantage I've seen of it over my Dreamcast is that it has full scene anti-aliasing.

      The Dreamcast has super sampling anti-aliasing and native support of 640x480 resolution for viewing on a PC monitor (though you need a VGA adapter, and not all games support it). That's part of why Soul C
    • Re:Makes sense... (Score:5, Insightful)

      by Matrix272 ( 581458 ) on Thursday September 04, 2003 @09:19AM (#6868531)
      anyone who really wants a console (and can afford it) has one already...

      You mean you have to be able to afford a new console when you buy it? Damn... I just put the XBox on my Visa...

      Frankly, I see no reason to upgrade to an Xbox or PS2, because all the latest games that I've wanted (GTA3/VC) are available on the PC (which work beautifully with my Radeon 9500 Pro), and as far as the PS2 goes, the only advantage I've seen of it over my Dreamcast is that it has full scene anti-aliasing.

      Normally, statements like "I see no reason to upgrade" really infuriate me, but I'll try to refrain from screaming profanities in your direction.

      If the Dreamcast and the PC offer every game you want to play, then good for you. For the rest of us though, there are Exclusive games (with a little label on the box, too) that are only available for one console (hence the label Exclusive). For instance, the XBox still has Halo (although it will, eventually, come out for the PC), Fable, if it ever comes out, and Knights of the Old Republic. The PS2 has quite a few, including Final Fantasy X, and soon, X-2. It's also got the Gran Turismo series, which is always good. The GameCube has Zelda, Mario Sunshine, Metroid, and F-Zero. There are plenty of games that you'll never be able to experience if you don't have a console... and many of those experiences are worth far more than the $50 price tag.

      I can understand that a lot of people don't have the money to spend $150-300 on a new console, and I can appreciate that. I certainly didn't have a GameCube the day it came out either... If money is the issue, that's one thing... but saying that there's just no reason to get one is just ignorant. I'm not saying that to be rude, I mean you literally don't know what's out there for each system until you take a good, long serious look at the options.
      • Missed the point (Score:2, Insightful)

        by Metal_Demon ( 694989 )
        Not everybody out there wants or needs the same games you like. As was said they have all the games they really want. As soon as the GC drops (note to original poster: probably as soon as they stop offering the free game at the end of this month) I'll have the three major systems, but I like a wide variety of games and spent a vast amount of time playing them. Not everybody is a hardcore gamer. Telling people they need to upgrade when they are happy with what they have is silly. You don't buy a new car when
        • I wasn't saying that he should run out and buy all the consoles just for the sake of playing games that he doesn't like. I tried to list several games that are some of the best examples of almost any genre available, that are also exclusive to one of the consoles. As I said in the first couple lines of my post, if he has a PC and a Dreamcast, and he's perfectly happy with it, that's fine... but for anybody that's reading this thread and is wondering what reason they might have for upgrading, I listed severa
  • by LaundroMat ( 517379 ) <laundro AT gmail DOT com> on Thursday September 04, 2003 @07:53AM (#6867773)
    If the games sell well, there's no need to worry about decreasing console sales, is there?

    An article none too well done, I'd say. Everyone knows that money isn't made by selling consoles an sich, but by selling the games that run on them.

    The article makes it appear as if that analyst has been studying graphs, without taking into account any external factors. Now that I come to think of it, it is very much possible he did just that, and drew some silly conclusions out of it.

    • by PainKilleR-CE ( 597083 ) on Thursday September 04, 2003 @07:59AM (#6867817)
      I like the statement that console sales will be down 10% in 2005, which just happens to be the year that most estimates have already stated the next generation of Nintendo and MS consoles will be along (and probably the PS3 as well).

      How much work does it really take to assume that this generation's consoles' sales will decrease in the year that most people assume the next generation's consoles will arrive?
  • by chrismcdirty ( 677039 ) on Thursday September 04, 2003 @08:38AM (#6868136) Homepage
    Any person who reads about videogame sales will know that console sales will be down. Sony has finally started selling less PS2 consoles since their debut. That number will only get smaller and smaller. And since the PS2 is the largest selling of the consoles, sales will be down. But that's not to say that the people who already have PS2s aren't saving money for an Xbox or a Gamecube.
  • by kabocox ( 199019 ) on Thursday September 04, 2003 @08:41AM (#6868158)
    I have one relative that I know is getting a PS2 for his Christmas present. I don't really care about Sales as such. I remember in the NES and SNES days I played one or two different games a week. Did I buy them? NO! I went to Blockbuster. (Though they are alot more expensive these days.) I had lots and lots of different types of games to choose from. That is why Nintendo is still around because of the sales of all those games. I actually bought a few N64 Games. I'm not really happy with that though because of the about of real RPGS released on the system... 0 in my mind. I got really mad at Nintendo for allowing Square to release FF for playstation. That was my main reason for buying a PS2 to play all the FF stuff for PS1!

    If I ever get a game cube it will be because of my kids. They are getting to the point were they like to play video games. I might not like the themes of Nintedo stuff in general, but hey its is stuff that I grew up on and I don't mind my kids playing on that platform. I'll most likely stick with Sony for my stuff though.
    • You need to read up on what happened between Nintendo/Square/Sony during the transition period after the SNES.

      Basically, Nintendo set them up with a bunch of SGI workstations for N64 development, and Square then screwed Nintendo by jumping ship and taking as many developers as they could (Enix included) with them.

      If *anyone* deserves scorn, it's Square for backstabbing the company that published their (could-have-been) last shot at a successful game: Final Fantasy.

      --Jeremy
  • Skip the next gen. (Score:4, Interesting)

    by JimTheta ( 115513 ) on Thursday September 04, 2003 @11:33AM (#6870021) Homepage
    Well, duh, consoles don't often need to be rebought; of course sales can't be maintained at high levels. But I think there might be a bigger picture.

    How long was it after these systems came out that people were already wondering about the PS3? It seems like we're always getting ready for the next big thing. The problem I have is that it seems like we're not using our current stuff to it's full potential. The cycle seems to move too fast.

    I personally would be in favor of the big three just skipping the next generation and doing their best to work on the generation after that. Wait until we're running out of new ground to break on the GCN/PS2/XBox before we start rolling out new stuff.

    As a side benefit, maybe toward the end of the cycle we'll see more better games come out instead of unfun flashy graphics, as by then we won't be as awed by the graphics that the system is capable of. And we also get to save money on that system we won't have to buy.

    Unfortunately, the nature of the market means that the next gen systems will come as soon as possible to beat the other guys. Too bad the big three all can't agree to not release systems before some future release date. The could make some big media event of it: Fifth-gen release day! Geeks everywhere salivate in anticipation!

    Really, I think the best thing would be for companies agree to such a date privately, and then not talk about next generation systems whatsoever, so that we keep demanding support of the current systems as long as possible instead of anticipating the next big thing. (That would probably be some kind of anti-trust collusion thing, though.) There were some great late era NES and Super NES games, but nobody was paying attention anymore when they came out.

    I know many won't agree with me. Please reply.
    • There were some great late era NES and Super NES games, but nobody was paying attention anymore when they came out.

      Those games were largely due to the fact that Nintendo was a little behind in bringing out their next-generation consoles in both cases (ie the SNES was well behind the Turbo Grafx-16 and the Genesis, the N64 was introduced shortly before the PSX really took off, though the PSX had been in the market for quite a while). When the hardware starts showing it's age because newer hardware is avail
    • Really, I think the best thing would be for companies agree to such a date privately, and then not talk about next generation systems whatsoever, so that we keep demanding support of the current systems as long as possible instead of anticipating the next big thing.

      Something like this would most certainly wake up the FTC's antitrust lawyers as it borders on collusion. I think Nintendo has had quite enough of that kind of investigation.
  • Comment removed based on user account deletion
  • by clu76 ( 620823 ) on Thursday September 04, 2003 @11:39AM (#6870064) Homepage
    Reuters originally reported that 80,000 figure in early August. They left off a zero. They really sold 800,000.

    To quote this article [ign.com]: "Amusingly though, it wasn't quite as bad for Cube owners as Reuters (and subsequently most of the Western world including the surely journalistically watertight BBC) reported - with 800,000, rather than the reported figure of 80,000, Cubes shifted in the last quarter."

    It amazes me how uninformed people are about the sales of the Nintendo Gamecube. I sware I think they just want to see the worst happen. Almost every article I read that says the Gamecube is in third place is referring to U.S. sales. World wide, Nintendo is selling slightly more than the XBox. But you never read about the demise of XBox.
    • For years, the console world has been quick to jump on typos and hearsay as the truth and spread it around. There seem to be ridiculous levels of advocacy when it comes to them, and peopel will spout anything to support console A and attack console B. Heck, even the gaming magazines have jumped on board often - anyone remember how often one of the mags talked about how the Atari Jaguar was not really 64 bit? Heck, one claimed that they arrived by that number by just adding up how many bits each processor
    • Since Reuters reported 80,000 Gamecube consoles SHIPPED, not sold, they were accurate. There is a reason Nintendo stopped manufacturing the system until later this Fall.

      And most people here or on VE3D, etc. that talk about Gamecube being third place are talking about the USA (or Europe), because that is where we live. This isn't the Playstation 1 or Super Famicom era - Japan is no longer the biggest or most important market for videogames (the world-wide best selling game last year, Vice City, wasn't even
      • You are misinformed.

        You said: Since Reuters reported 80,000 Gamecube consoles SHIPPED , not sold, they were accurate.

        This reuters article [forbes.com] says: Japanese videogame maker Nintendo Co Ltd <7974.OS> said on Tuesday it SOLD 80,000 GameCube consoles worldwide in the latest quarter.

        Do your homework next time.
  • Why don't they sell old games anymore? The only way you can get the old classics without starving a week to save the money is to pirate them, and that is something I wish people didn't have to do to get the games they want.

    If they want to cut down on piracy, (Nintendo, that is, Sega doesn't care) then why don't they sell the old games at manageable prices like say $1-$5? I would buy lots of games if that was the situation. But it is not, and I will not pay $20.00 to get Rockman 5 for the PlayStation!

    • Proably they'll start using the old classic to attract more sales for new titles (the recent zelda bundle comes to mind).
      Also, "collection" titles such as Sonic/Sega Mega Collection/Mario All Stars, etc; have proven to be good sellers.
      I do agree that they should sell the classics in their orginal form, I'd even pay $ 20 collections of 3-4 titles.
    • Re:Old Consoles (Score:2, Informative)

      by mowph ( 642278 )

      In Japan, a lot of used bookstores stock used copies of old games. Lately, used games are also spreading to video rental chains, such as GEO (the company that took over all of the bankrupt YES stores.)

      You can find a lot of real gems for under 2,000 yen (about US$15). Then there are the few rare Super Famicon / SNES games that are still going for 6,000 yen (about US$40). (Most of those were published back when games used to cost over 10,000 yen.)

      The real finds [slashdot.org], though, are for "dead" systems like the

  • sale slump? as in sales usually go up after like 3 years from when the console was released and prices stop going down?
  • Short Generation?! (Score:3, Insightful)

    by shadowcabbit ( 466253 ) * <cx@thefurry o n e . net> on Thursday September 04, 2003 @06:54PM (#6874741) Journal
    "I don't think (that), when the companies developed this generation of consoles, they were prepared for it to be so short."

    Of course they weren't. The people who developed the big three believed, as do I, that the generation would last just as long as the previous ones: 5-7 years. And by rights, they should-- there's no real reason to produce a new console machine for 2004-2005, primarily because the advances in the technology are not significant enough to warrant a whole new system purchase. Incremental upgrades and piece-meal improvements are fine for PC gaming, where consumers have less of a monetary risk ($175 for a video card upgrade vs. $300 for an entirely new system, plus the $50 game in either case). If PS3 were to come out next year with only a new video chipset and maybe two or three minor improvements-- which is what it looks like is going to happen-- I won't buy it, I doubt the majority of gamers would buy it, and Sony's console business would spiral down the toilet. The manufacturers need to learn a lesson from Sega and the Dreamcast, specifically-- the first man in rarely winds up being the one who survives 'till the end.
  • huh. if gamers aren't buying new consoles, there must be a reason.

    Lemme guess, its:

    • a) pirates trading illegally copied consoles
    • b) the terrorists
    • c) Gray Davis?

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